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DRF: Nathaniel Lacy Nov Hurdle (2M6F)

Confirmed as American Mike's next race

10s is a knocking price imo so have parted with a few pennies
 
Hiddenvalley Lake joint fav at the moment but after Cork, Henry said he might go to the race won by Monalee at Clonmel.

Does anyone know if that is still the plan?

Good Land wouldn't be my idea of a winner here.

Indiana Dream is too short for what he's done.

Sandor Clegane isn't up to this standard.

FDC may not turn up here with his favourable handicap mark.

American Mike needs to get back to himself but is interesting.

Wevallbeencaught won't be good enough this year.

Three Card Brag probably won't turn up.

The outsiders could be of interest depending on who turns up. Interesting race.
 
DenmanSacre said:
Hiddenvalley Lake joint fav at the moment but after Cork, Henry said he might go to the race won by Monalee at Clonmel.

Does anyone know if that is still the plan?

Good Land wouldn't be my idea of a winner here.

Indiana Dream is too short for what he's done.

Sandor Clegane isn't up to this standard.

FDC may not turn up here with his favourable handicap mark.

American Mike needs to get back to himself but is interesting.

Wevallbeencaught won't be good enough this year.

Three Card Brag probably won't turn up.

The outsiders could be of interest depending on who turns up. Interesting race.
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What makes you think Sandor isn't up to this grade mate? Not really had the chance to show he isn't has he??
 
darlojim said:
What makes you think Sandor isn't up to this grade mate? Not really had the chance to show he isn't has he??
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Just my feeling on him. Could be wrong but I've not been a fan. Could easily prove me wrong. Looks a good race if we get 80% of them turn up.
 
DenmanSacre Yes - HVL still aimed at Clonmel next and unlikely to head here.
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Confirmed as American Mike's next race

10s is a knocking price imo so have parted with a few pennies
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Now a general 9/2 shot

Value achieved

Il use that to console me when he loses

If it was grangeclare west beating him I'd be perfectly happy though
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Now a general 9/2 shot

Value achieved

Il use that to console me when he loses

If it was grangeclare west beating him I'd be perfectly happy though
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Hope you did him EW FF ?!
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Don't do e/w ante post

Means you lose twice as much if they don't run
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Or make 50% profit in his case if he did and got placed. Swings and roundabouts. I'm swinging more towards EW these days if the price is right, especially doubles.
 
My thoughts on this race now that declarations have been made.

Good Land - could well be anything, however the form lines from his win are sketchy, IMO, and it's not as if his bumper form was stand out either, so I can pass him over, however, I do have him backed for the Ballymore, which I'll probably cash out if he doesn't win, which I don't think he will now.

Sandor Clegane - One I put up for the Bartlett on the forum at 66/1, and whilst that was some serious looking value I am no more than luke warm on him now. It's probably because the form of his win isn't great. I'm hoping he can put in a good run at the DRF for them big priced dockets but it wouldn't surprise me if he turns out not to be the next Latest Exhibition.

Weveallbeencaught - It comes down to the fact I'm not a fan of the British novice hurdle form, unless it's one from the Henderson stable, and he's not. Personally not sure what to expect, but I'm hoping he's beat well enough.

American Mike / Grangeclare West / Quais De Paris - I've grouped these three together as I think the winner comes from this group. I'm not sure which. It's a bit of a minefield tbh, and one I won't be betting on. American Mike & Grangeclare Wests form, for me, is the best in the race, whether that be from bumpers, in American Mikes case, or the Lawlors of Naas run from Grangeclare West. Both ran below par LTO, but seemingly had excuses, and if they have recovered from these excuses then I can see their class showing through. Quais De Paris on the otherhand is a difficult one to assess, but Willie has been very positive about him before his debut and I think is one he ranks pretty highly. The step up in trip is a surprise to me, but clearly Willie has a plan for him, so for me, he has to be taken seriously.

Absolute Notions / Deep Cave / Cool Survivor - Expect these to be closer to the back than the front, and none appeal to me. All three are possible handicap options for the Cheltenham Festival though.
 
ComplyOrDie Nice summary. I do like Good Land's form though and am slightly hotter on Deep Cave too. I think his performances have screamed out for a step up. He could well be for a handicap though as this is his fourth run.

Who's the winner in your view?
 
Exar Essay said:
ComplyOrDie Nice summary. I do like Good Land's form though and am slightly hotter on Deep Cave too. I think his performances have screamed out for a step up. He could well be for a handicap though as this is his fourth run.

Who's the winner in your view?
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One of three, which is why I probably won't be backing anything mate.

American Mike & Grangeclare West need to be taken on trust that their issues are resolved, if so then either of them. QDP is the big unknown for me and was a big spot by Faugheen_Machine at huge prices for the Bartlett.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
One of three, which is why I probably won't be backing anything mate.

American Mike & Grangeclare West need to be taken on trust that their issues are resolved, if so then either of them. QDP is the big unknown for me and was a big spot by Faugheen_Machine at huge prices for the Bartlett.
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Do we think whatever wins this goes favourite?

Wish i was going to the DRF. I haven't been yet but think I'll be putting my name down for next year.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
Do we think whatever wins this goes favourite?

Wish i was going to the DRF. I haven't been yet but think I'll be putting my name down for next year.
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I'd say it depends on the manner of victory. If something wins well then I would imagine it will go favourite, yeah :encouragement:
 
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ComplyOrDie

Love the summary.

I do think you're being a tad harsh on the bottom 3, especially Deep Cave...looks like he'll improve for the trip and if you got through the runners higher up in the market, they all have question marks. The points you've made on Good Land and now 2nd fav QDP, then there's NTD's runner, and while his maiden win has taken a boost i think he's a work in progress. Mike and GW have to bounce back.

Find it interesting Henry has put DC in here, he's got a decent yardstick at home Inthepocket to hopefully tell him this guy is no forlorn hope.
 
Deep Cave a great price here at 20/1, 4 places with sky and should improve for the longer trip and hopefully a test of stamina.
 
Thanks jack1092 :encouragement:

I wasn't so dismissive of Deep Cave, until I looked into the form. Already been beat by Absolute Notions, who was then beat himself in a better race. Deep Cave's maiden win is lacking substance too, IMO. The 3rd that day, Firm Footings, got battered either side of that run, first being beat by Grangeclare West 13 lengths, and then 31 lengths by In Excess, the other day.

The fact he's got to prove he can beat Absolute Notions first is my main concern, given that one has been beat since and is one of the 3 outsiders for this race anyway.
 
Becton withdrawn theirs again, including American Mike. Not ideal for American Mike antepost backers.

Obviously it's up to them and other things are more important (disclaimer)
 
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