Been having a think...
I'm pretty sure that next season I will be adopting a different strategy.
I'm not one for getting bets down too early, but can see the logic.
But I'm not going in that direction I reckon.
And my ante-post stakes are normally small compared to my day to day stuff. So this wouldn't suit.
So I think I may stick to mainly NRNB next year except maybe a select few, and wait until after Xmas.
I may utilise the win today markets if they offer any value. Think these are getting worse also.
The reason I think this is a good idea is that it seems obvious to me that the pool of antepost players has got larger, it's still small in comparison to the old days but it's larger than 5 years ago say.
You only have to see the amount of Podcasts to see this.
But what I think this has led to, is create some false prices and markets, much more so than normal. This is normally Ok as if we have false prices some will be wrong in a good way, but this is ante-post betting and not "day of" markets. Bookies are having our eyes, most of the time, and finding the value is harder.
For example, The last few Mullins horses to hose up have been over backed and simply do not represent a true reflection of the chances, but it seems there's enough Muggy betting going on to both encourage the bookmakers to string us along and push prices even lower. They've been backed like they've won graded races when they've won low grade uncompetitive maidens.
The lack of any get outs due to cash outs and low liquidity on exchange is also getting worse.
I basically think we're getting mugged off and mugging ourselves off, if you know what I mean.
Bit Like sitting around a Lake fishing and the Lake getting smaller whilst the number of fishermen are getting larger and simultaneously getting smarter, cos they have to, to compete to get the dwindling number of fish, but they've become more stupid at the same time cos they're still sat around the same fucking lake.
An example of what I mean by this is that to get the value nowadays you have to almost back horses before they run, not just after declarations. but also on entry, and often even before that. :stupid:
This hasn't always been the case, it's just crept in as the years have passed.
Even though I've spent shit loads of time on it and try to be selective and as shrewd as I can, I still get the feeling I'm pissing in the wind with antepost.
This is not because I'm not in a good position this season, cos I think I've got a very healthy position overall.
For my strategy anyway, which is more defensive than most, which means I'm trying not to lose more than trying to win big.
Basically, the excellent contributors like Saxon, eggs, native river and everyone else with the clever threads and ideas - and then the numerous podcasts with followers, have ruined it for me, :highly_amused::highly_amused::highly_amused:
They've simply made it easier for the lazy Mugs and FOMO merchants to identify likely bets.
And the bookies flashing lights have been on overdrive enticing similar types in.
I'll be looking very closely at the markets after decs and how they compare and this will make up my mind for sure.
However There is no answer except to go and fish elsewhere.:victorious:
:amen: