• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Mares Novice Hurdle

HesTheOne said:
Name Price Trainer Name Price Trainer
Luccia10Nicky HendersonKudasheva25Henry De Bromhead
Deeply Superficial10Gordon ElliottSheishybrid25Noel Meade
Ashroe Diamond10W.P MullinsNikini25W.P Mullins
Ahorsewithnoname11Nicky HendersonJolie Coeur Allen25W.P Mullins
Magical Zoe12Henry De BromheadPink In The Park25W.P Mullins
Night And Day14W.P MullinsBellatoir25Gordon Elliott
Harmonie Star14W.P MullinsMel Monroe25Gordon Elliott
Adelphi Vega14 Queens Gamble33Gordon Elliott
Between Waters16Nicky HendersonHip Hop Davis33W.P Mullins
Lily Du Berlais16Crawford Sedge Wren33Stuart Edmunds
Instit16W.P MullinsBonttay33Fergal O'Brien
Lossiemouth20W.P MullinsYou Wear It Well33Jamie Snowden
Lot Of Joy20W.P MullinsThe Model Kingdom33Noel Meade
Quel Reve20W.P Mullins
Bombay Sapphire25Nicky Henderson
Law Ella25Thomas Ward
Call Her Now25Lorna Fowler
Poetic Music25Fergal O'Brien
Halka Du Tabert20Gordon Elliott
Mucuna25Milton Harris
Foxy Girl25Henry De Bromhead
Molly Sanderson25
Click to expand...

Comparing the market betting from the first week of Nov till now. It has just about retained 16 of the top 30 highlighted below.

Almost 70 days later Luccia retains her favs spot but has contracted 7 points, She should be long covered but I feel at 3s she's still worth adding into win only multis.
Rest of top 4 in the market have not changed too much.

Personally I'd still see it as a wide open market, history tends to repeat itself and from here on in my focus will be on finding 2 or 3 FR mares belonging to Mullins who are outside of the top market betting right now. (Don't believe he's had any success with some 4yo, some feature in the betting below).

Closer to the fest I'll look to pick one from Elliott's and HDB yard and likely enter the race on the back of 2 for Mullins selections inspired by Solerina entries (obvious 1st string and a darker 2nd string), feel that should be a good position with the early season covers of Luccia. :angel::angel::angel:

Comparison isn't massively useful but interesting to see how the market has changed
​
NameCurrent PriceDif. Old Fav RankNew Fav RankDif.
Luccia3-7110
Ashroe Diamond6-432-1
Magical Zoe10-253-2
Night And Day10-464-2
Liberty Dance11 5
Deeply Superficial122264
Halka Du Tabert14-6197-12
Credrojava16 8
Enola16 9
Harmonie Star1627103
Harmonya Maker16 11
La Prima Donna16 12
Between Waters2049134
Cinsa20 14
Dixon Cove20 15
Foxy Girl20-52116-5
Lily Du Berlais20-410177
Lot Of Joy20013185
Quel Reve20014195
Saylavee20 20
You Wear It Well20 21
Belle The Lioness25 22
Credojava25 23
Jolie Coeur Allen2502624-2
Kateira25 25
Nikini25025261
Princess Zoe25 27
Queens Gamble25-83028-2
The Model Kingdom25 29
Ahorsewithnoname33 43026

​
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf
Think Lot of Joy may be a Mullins Solerina entry after More support for her across several bookies yesterday including PP.
 
33/1 could be a huge over reaction from bookies after she bled last time. Hopefully it was just a one off thing. Worrying though.
 
DenmanSacre said:
Codd has mentioned 3 of Elliott's in the email today.

Harmonya Maker
She looks like a real Apple's Jade. She just gallops, jumps and handles soft ground, as well as being by the same sire and having a similar makeup. She was so, so impressive when I won a bumper on her but jumps have been the making of her and she's very good.

Halka du Tabert

She's a very, very nice mare. She did well to win her Naas bumper with me on and then was impressive with what she did after the back of the last on hurdling debut (the second has franked the form since). She has a really high cruising speed and is very talented."

Liberty Dance

I would imagine Cheltenham is very much on the agenda for her; she tough, honest and jumps well. She could keep surprising us! She's not flashy at home but very straight forward and her form is stacking up.
Click to expand...

thoughts on likely races?
 
NeptuneCollonges said:
thoughts on likely races?
Click to expand...

well seeing as you asked neptunes, i'll give you my thoughts. A lot will depend on the outcome of next weekends solerina at fairyhouse.
My feeling is, Harmonya maker and Halka du tabert will run.
Halka du tabert is a big winner in the MNH for me, but i've got a feeling, if she wins the solerina, rather than carry a 5lb penalty in the MNH she will go for the ballymore where she will receive 7lbs from the geldings. And i have a feeling she could be good enough, it will all become clearer after the solerina.
 
Corals stand out 20/1 on Lot of Joy now disappeared. She's had a decent hair cut across the board this week with the Solerina entries looming.
 
One or two little murmurs on Twitter re: Luccia and her wellbeing. Some fella asking Gavin Lynch about her and GL replied with:

"As regards Luccia not running in the Tolworth, I thought it was a little odd that Nicky announced on the Tuesday that she had a bad scope and wasn’t running 5 days later. Usually a bad scope that far from a race wouldn’t mean curtains. A little odd I thought."

^ Reading too much into this or is there more to it than just a bad scope? That time of year isn't it when everyone's brother's sister's cat's cousin's teacher has heard something! FWIW - 365 still have Luccia greyed out for me (and have since the Tolworth NR statement from Nicky)​
 
RoadToCheltenham said:
One or two little murmurs on Twitter re: Luccia and her wellbeing. Some fella asking Gavin Lynch about her and GL replied with:

"As regards Luccia not running in the Tolworth, I thought it was a little odd that Nicky announced on the Tuesday that she had a bad scope and wasn’t running 5 days later. Usually a bad scope that far from a race wouldn’t mean curtains. A little odd I thought."

^ Reading too much into this or is there more to it than just a bad scope? That time of year isn't it when everyone's brother's sister's cat's cousin's teacher has heard something! FWIW - 365 still have Luccia greyed out for me (and have since the Tolworth NR statement from Nicky)​
Click to expand...

There could be something to it, but it is Nicky Henderson we’re talking about, he’s always ultra cautious and a bad scope the week of a race is probably more than enough for him to withdraw.
 
Maybe it's time for Between Waters to step forward :barbershop_quartet_member:

It's a pretty inactive market but there's nothing to suggest any issue with Luccia on the exchange
 
Benjy23 said:
Maybe it's time for Between Waters to step forward :barbershop_quartet_member:

It's a pretty inactive market but there's nothing to suggest any issue with Luccia on the exchange
Click to expand...

Nope, I watched her every day for about 2 weeks after the tolworth and she was very quiet but just normal for a horse who'd been declared unfit to race.
settled down, allbeit very little money for a FAV, but maybe a muggy race for most anyway.
 
You gotta be caerful with Hendo this time of year as well, he hates the heat so he'll tell you every time one of his coughs or looks at some hay funny
 
  • Like
Reactions: TCH29
Night and Day 140 RPR. That is obscene. Prepared to be corrected, but with the 7lb allowance, that's the second best seasonal debut hurdle performance this year I believe! GAs impressive as she was, surely that isn't right?

8lb better than Luccia's opening effort for comparison.

Edit: Corrected after Aaron correctly pointed out it wasn't her debut
 
Last edited:
Exar Essay said:
Night and Day 140 RPR ... ON DEBUT. That is obscene. That's Supreme level. Prepared to be corrected, but with the 7lb allowance, that's the best debut hurdle performance this year I believe! Gaelic's seasonal opener not being his debut of course. As impressive as she was, surely that isn't right?

8lb better than Luccia's opening effort for comparison.
Click to expand...

Just to note it wasn't her hurdle debut either.
 
AaronLad said:
Just to note it wasn't her hurdle debut either.
Click to expand...

Ha. Fair point. I got too excited. Still, second best seasonal debut this year I think? And second best performance by a novice mare after Harmonya Maker?
 
Exar Essay said:
Ha. Fair point. I got too excited. Still, second best seasonal debut this year I think? And second best performance by a novice mare after Harmonya Maker?
Click to expand...

oh i'm certainly not knocking the performance, it's an eyecatching rating
 
Exar Essay said:
Night and Day 140 RPR. That is obscene.
Click to expand...

Should give us an indication of where Gaelic Warrior will be as he was 7 seconds slower on the day but carried 10lbs more. His TS figure was obviously not as high as hers. So I suspect he'll be mid 140's.

That was a big performance from Night And Day though. Very much reminded me of Laurina. Wonder if she'll be seen to best effect if it came up soft or worse.

Edit: Christ, miles out, he got 155 :highly_amused::highly_amused:
 
Last edited:
riccirich said:
There could be something to it, but it is Nicky Henderson we’re talking about, he’s always ultra cautious and a bad scope the week of a race is probably more than enough for him to withdraw.
Click to expand...

Bad scope could mean the horse needed a course of antibiotics,a horse needs to be clear of any medications when racing so that takes 48hrs for the bloods to clear,if she was given a 5 day course she couldn't have ran.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom