2023 Novice Chasers

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah you're probably right. Didn't say about El Fab "the world is his oyster" though, Did he? :barbershop_quartet_member:

And Paul Townend didn't call Appreciate It 'magic' like he did Dysart Dynamo, but hey ho.

Words, words, words. Interpreted in so many ways, usually in ways that suit.

 

[Craigy14]

I still say backing all Mullins top Novice Hurdlers straight after Cheltenham TWAR is the best option. Just slot them into their respective races at Declaration stage and hey presto you end up with one or two top horses in each race at far bigger odds. No bingo pain at all.

The odds for TWAR, especially on familiar horses, are nothing short of terrible Lobos. That’s the main problem for me. Aye they might price the odd one wrong but for the most part you’re backing sub 7-8/1 probably lower.

 

[Quevega]

I think we're descending into a delusional, disparate, dystopian world again. :beguiled:
We'll be in twinkle in the eye mode soon.
And that's an alliteration and a half.

 

[Quevega]

The odds for TWAR, especially on familiar horses, are nothing short of terrible Lobos. That’s the main problem for me. Aye they might price the odd one wrong but for the most part you’re backing sub 7-8/1 probably lower.

Yes, they are rubbish. IMO
betting at under value in the most part.
As a long term main strategy - zero chance of paying off.
Unless your selections are exceptionally precise and you get the luck required (as with all tactics)
But more relaxing to a degree.

 

[Birds Nest]

With apologies for copying from Lobos' diary.
I am sure you've done your numbers but I couldn't get excited about any of these prices, Gala Marceau possibly but she only ever had two race options.
I hope one or two land for you and they yield a profit...

Sir Gerhard 7/2 4pts (Bri)#
James Gate 7/1 3pts#
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt (Rob)
The Nice Guy 4/1 1pt#
The Nice Guy 4/1 1pt#
The Nice Guy 4/1 2pts (Rob)#
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt (Rob)
Hunters Yarn 10/1 1pt
Hunters Yarn 10/1 1pt
Gala Marceau 16/1 2pts
Galliard du Mesnil 5/1 1pt
Galliard du Mesnil 5/1 2pt (Rob)
Spanish Harlem 33/1 1pt​

Maybe we should do a new thread for this for future reference, would interesting how the any race market plays out.
some of the others that were on offer were
Marine nationale 16s
Grangeclare west 12s
Classic getaway 12s
James de berlais 14s
Gerri colombe 12s
Jazzy matty 25s

And im sure there were others of interest too.

 

[AaronLad]

And Paul Townend didn't call Appreciate It 'magic' like he did Dysart Dynamo, but hey ho.

Words, words, words. Interpreted in so many ways, usually in ways that suit.

Yes, but the point I found interesting was he's a retained rider for suede/mounir and he was more optimistic about a horse he will never ride in a horse race. I am pocket talking, but I think it was just another person who is a horse racing person that knows Appreciate it is on a different level. I love this game :welcoming:

 

[Lobos]

The odds for TWAR, especially on familiar horses, are nothing short of terrible Lobos. That’s the main problem for me. Aye they might price the odd one wrong but for the most part you’re backing sub 7-8/1 probably lower.

But on a few that'll go off well shorter on the day in whatever race. That's the point. Look at the longer term bigger picture. Stress free as well. No running around, switching here there and everywhere, missing out on cashing out, waiting for entries, trainers stable tours........and so on.
It's great for me as I've never had an online account so it's off to the bookies unless my mates are kind enough to help. Remember you can do TWAR Each Way as well if you wish and I believe Sky let you use one TWAR horse in multiples so there are some very good options. It's a very good tool when used sensibly.

 

[charlie]

Another schooling session at 1/5 for him

Will teach us absolutely zilch

From a form point of view you're right, we'll learn zilch, but I don't think Sunday will tell us nothing overall.

It tells us that he came out his last race well and is ready to go again (I know some forum members had concerns about his wellbeing, so this puts that to bed).

It tells us Willie is continuing down the 2m route, rather than stepping him up, so Arkle continues to look more likely.

If he beats Top Bandit far more convincingly it will prove he needed the run on debut and there is significant improvement in him.

It tells us more about his jumping - all horses that head the Arkle market have had freebies from the front, so we get to judge him in line with those efforts.

Willie might say something post race that will make the moving pieces of the Mullins puzzle far easier to decipher (highly doubt it, but we live in hope).

 

[ComplyOrDie]

From a form point of view you're right, we'll learn zilch, but I don't think Sunday will tell us nothing overall.

It tells us that he came out his last race well and is ready to go again (I know some forum members had concerns about his wellbeing, so this puts that to bed).

It tells us Willie is continuing down the 2m route, rather than stepping him up, so Arkle continues to look more likely.

If he beats Top Bandit far more convincingly it will prove he needed the run on debut and there is significant improvement in him.

It tells us more about his jumping - all horses that head the Arkle market have had freebies from the front, so we get to judge him in line with those efforts.

Willie might say something post race that will make the moving pieces of the Mullins puzzle far easier to decipher (highly doubt it, but we live in hope).

He's also got to give away 6lbs this time to Top Bandit, although I'd still expect him to do that comfortably anyway.

 

[Kautostar]

The odds for TWAR, especially on familiar horses, are nothing short of terrible Lobos. That’s the main problem for me. Aye they might price the odd one wrong but for the most part you’re backing sub 7-8/1 probably lower.

I agree with lobos here 7/8-1 isn’t bad when considering horses could run in any number of races. You do have to be selective with them but are particularly useful for novice hurdlers that could run in 3 or 4 different races. You can blow a fortune backing horses for the wrong races and even more so if you don’t have access to cash out.
Even now 10 weeks out nobody can predict with any degree of certainty where the following will go…
- Gaelic warrior
- Grangeclare west
- Impaire et passe
- the Arkle trio
- James du berlais
- Minella cocooner
- Gailard du mesnil
TWAR solves that problem and most would now be value prices wherever they run against their current market odds.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Not seen Road to Cheltenham yet (I'll watch tomorrow morning) but it's no surprise he is glowing about Appreciate It.

He put up a great performance in the Supreme, the yard were confident he could run well in the Champion Hurdle with no prep and on ability shown on the racecourse, he is clear of the other Mullins horses.

​​​​​​I've started to be lukewarm about Dysart Dynamo now, El Fabiolo could still be anything but I'm hoping Appreciate It goes to the Arkle as the stable number 1.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Maybe we should do a new thread for this for future reference, would interesting how the any race market plays out.
some of the others that were on offer were
Marine nationale 16s
Grangeclare west 12s
Classic getaway 12s
James de berlais 14s
Gerri colombe 12s
Jazzy matty 25s

And im sure there were others of interest too.

Noted.
Dandrew99 does a great job of tracking price changes on regular markets but for reference a separate 'any race' thread with prices immediately after this years festival would be good to have..

 

[Lobos]

From a form point of view you're right, we'll learn zilch, but I don't think Sunday will tell us nothing overall.

It tells us that he came out his last race well and is ready to go again (I know some forum members had concerns about his wellbeing, so this puts that to bed).

It tells us Willie is continuing down the 2m route, rather than stepping him up, so Arkle continues to look more likely.

If he beats Top Bandit far more convincingly it will prove he needed the run on debut and there is significant improvement in him.

It tells us more about his jumping - all horses that head the Arkle market have had freebies from the front, so we get to judge him in line with those efforts.

Willie might say something post race that will make the moving pieces of the Mullins puzzle far easier to decipher (highly doubt it, but we live in hope).

I have a feeling he's using this race as he's still unsure about 2miles. The Arkle is always a rapidly run race in which no prisoners are taken. Think they'll fly him out from the start and see if he can keep up a strong pace all the way and also whether he can jump accurately at pace. He'll then make a decision on which way to go.

 

[Dandrew99]

Noted.
Dandrew99 does a great job of tracking price changes on regular markets but for reference a separate 'any race' thread with prices immediately after this years festival would be good to have..

It's in the pipeline... :encouragement:

 

[Lobos]

I agree with lobos here 7/8-1 isn’t bad when considering horses could run in any number of races. You do have to be selective with them but are particularly useful for novice hurdlers that could run in 3 or 4 different races. You can blow a fortune backing horses for the wrong races and even more so if you don’t have access to cash out.
Even now 10 weeks out nobody can predict with any degree of certainty where the following will go…
- Gaelic warrior
- Grangeclare west
- Impaire et passe
- the Arkle trio
- James du berlais
- Minella cocooner
- Gailard du mesnil
TWAR solves that problem and most would now be value prices wherever they run against their current market odds.

Spot on Kauto. Nail on head. Also with the Mullins Novice Hurdlers you have to potentially factor in the Pipe or County Hurdle. No way can you back all 4/5 races and expect to be successful.

 

[Craigy14]

I agree with lobos here 7/8-1 isn’t bad when considering horses could run in any number of races. You do have to be selective with them but are particularly useful for novice hurdlers that could run in 3 or 4 different races. You can blow a fortune backing horses for the wrong races and even more so if you don’t have access to cash out.
Even now 10 weeks out nobody can predict with any degree of certainty where the following will go…
- Gaelic warrior
- Grangeclare west
- Impaire et passe
- the Arkle trio
- James du berlais
- Minella cocooner
- Gailard du mesnil
TWAR solves that problem and most would now be value prices wherever they run against their current market odds.

It was something I used a couple years ago, when the prices were a lot better, but not now.

Rather back a horse for most likely 2 races than TWAR at more than half the price. They run shit you’ve probably lost your dough straight away, you’re on early enough can get out with little loss or half stakes normally unless they fall out the back of the TV.

Anyway sidetracking the thread so will leave it there.

 

[Kautostar]

It was something I used a couple years ago, when the prices were a lot better, but not now.

Rather back a horse for most likely 2 races than TWAR at more than half the price. They run shit you’ve probably lost your dough straight away, you’re on early enough can get out with little loss or half stakes normally unless they fall out the back of the TV.

Anyway sidetracking the thread so will leave it there.

But if they run shit your cashout option will be snatched away assuming it’s with a bookie that does that whereas with TWAR you’ve always got the back door escape route of a hcap to fall back on even they get beat

 

[Craigy14]

But if they run shit your cashout option will be snatched away assuming it’s with a bookie that does that whereas with TWAR you’ve always got the back door escape route of a hcap to fall back on even they get beat

Handicaps will become less and less so due to the new rules though.

Very little novices will be in them with compared to previous years.

 

[Kautostar]

Handicaps will become less and less so due to the new rules though.

Very little novices will be in them with compared to previous years.

I still think you’ll get a fair share of novices qualified to run but agree it will be a smaller pool that previous years. More helpful to the early season TWAR bets for those with early entries

 

[Quevega]

The any race market is like any other.
There will be value somewhere.

I personally like it for Juveniles when the price is not dissimilar to the price for the triumph. Especially a horse with a reputation/price tag with a big yard.

For example.

Jazzy Matty 33-1 v 25-1.
Looks a player in the Boodles now.

There are other examples of potential graded novice chasers that may revert back or end in a handicap over hurdles or fences. Again with reputations from big yards and cheltenham experience/ambitions.

I personally have never seen much value in the classier more obvious ones, but I'm sure some work out and every now and then the price when compared with the specific race prices looks worth taking.

It is 100% not a strategy to base a portfolio on IMO, unless your motivation is not having to do anything/much for the rest of the year.