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2023 Novice Chasers

ComplyOrDie said:
So El Fabiolo, for instance, last season, over hurdles?

Could he also be held back for Aintree again?
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I can't remember the circumstances around his non participation at Cheltenham, perhaps he was considered too inexperienced ?
Held over to a soft Aintree G1 where you face one genuine graded horses and the rest handicappers ?
Who knows.
But I think he's proved himself the level needed for an Arkle, it really just depends on how Mullins shuffles the deck and whether he thinks Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Saint Roi are better suited to the race.
Again, who knows...
 
I still say backing all Mullins top Novice Hurdlers straight after Cheltenham TWAR is the best option. Just slot them into their respective races at Declaration stage and hey presto you end up with one or two top horses in each race at far bigger odds. No bingo pain at all.
 
Exar Essay said:
I thought Kilcruit was doing his best work (it's all relative!) over the last 1/2 furlong at Limerick. I think 3 miles would suit better than a quick 2m3f. Also, I think Kilcruit slots in where there's a space. There are others way up the pecking order that Willie will want aimed at the right race first.
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I agree, but I'm sure Miss Masterson wouldn't want them running against each other. Seems a bit contradictory is all, making the argument that El Fabiolo won't step up because of JDB then saying Appreciate It will :highly_amused:

Kilcruit may well miss Cheltenham like FinalFurlong91 mentioned and obviously that point is out the window, but if they do both go then I'd expect them to be split. I really don't see them stepping Kilcruit up to 3 miles either to be honest, which would leave Appreciate It in the Arkle.
 
Istabraq said:
I can't remember the circumstances around his non participation at Cheltenham, perhaps he was considered too inexperienced ?
Held over to a soft Aintree G1 where you face one genuine graded horses and the rest handicappers ?
Who knows.
But I think he's proved himself the level needed for an Arkle, it really just depends on how Mullins shuffles the deck and whether he thinks Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Saint Roi are better suited to the race.
Again, who knows...
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Might be remembering this wrongly... wasn't he entered but missed the boat because of a stone bruise or similar small niggle?
 
ComplyOrDie said:
So El Fabiolo, for instance, last season, over hurdles?

Could he also be held back for Aintree again?
Click to expand...

You know what's coming down the line 'Unfortunately El Fabiolo picked up a slight knock and will miss the festival, it's unfortunate, but he should be alright for Aintree' :cower:
 
Istabraq said:
I can't remember the circumstances around his non participation at Cheltenham, perhaps he was considered too inexperienced ?
Held over to a soft Aintree G1 where you face one genuine graded horses and the rest handicappers ?
Who knows.
But I think he's proved himself the level needed for an Arkle, it really just depends on how Mullins shuffles the deck and whether he thinks Dysart Dynamo, Sir Gerhard, Appreciate It and Saint Roi are better suited to the race.
Again, who knows...
Click to expand...

He's the one who has got closest to Jonbon, albeit over hurdles, so I think he'd be the first on the Arkle team sheet.
 
Lobos said:
He's the one who has got closest to Jonbon, albeit over hurdles, so I think he'd be the first on the Arkle team sheet.
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He should have been beating him, in my opinion, anyway.
 
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Lobos said:
I still say backing all Mullins top Novice Hurdlers straight after Cheltenham TWAR is the best option.
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That is sensible, but how many bookies have an 'any race' market available 12 months out ?
I appreciate I'm worse off than most but I fully expect there to be others in here who don't have that option.
Also, as we know, bookies aren't in the habit of chucking value at us these days so prices will reflect that, and of course 'any race' selections can't be included in multis which prevents everyone from a potential jackpot...
 
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Lobos said:
I still say backing all Mullins top Novice Hurdlers straight after Cheltenham TWAR is the best option. Just slot them into their respective races at Declaration stage and hey presto you end up with one or two top horses in each race at far bigger odds. No bingo pain at all.
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I'm sure this is in your diary but I can't be bothered to find it... sorry :highly_amused: what prices were actually available? If I remember right they were pretty tight...
 
Istabraq said:
That is sensible, but how many bookies have an 'any race' market available 12 months out ?
I appreciate I'm worse off than most but I fully expect there to be others in here who don't have that option.
Also, as we know, bookies aren't in the habit of chucking value at us these days so prices will reflect that, and of course 'any race' selections can't be included in multis which prevents everyone from a potential jackpot...
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Yep, only singles and only Hills offer any real value TWAR odds. It doesn't seem value at the time as odds are at least 2/3 times the price for individual races but once we hit decs time and slot them in, all of a sudden you have 5's about an even money shot in all three races. You have to wait a while and let it all unfold but worth it sometimes.

Clearly there are some horses that you just know their targets and you also have the pitfalls of potential NR's as well which there have been a few Biggies this season.
 
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Lobos said:
He's the one who has got closest to Jonbon, albeit over hurdles, so I think he'd be the first on the Arkle team sheet.
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Oh yeah I agree, but it would be nice to know that he is suited by Cheltenham as that just adds another risk, I'm struggling to think of a recent Arkle winner that hadn't been to the track previously...
 
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Dandrew99 said:
I'm sure this is in your diary but I can't be bothered to find it... sorry :highly_amused: what prices were actually available? If I remember right they were pretty tight...
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With apologies for copying from Lobos' diary.
I am sure you've done your numbers but I couldn't get excited about any of these prices, Gala Marceau possibly but she only ever had two race options.
I hope one or two land for you and they yield a profit...

Sir Gerhard 7/2 4pts (Bri)#
James Gate 7/1 3pts#
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt
Minella Cocooner 7/1 1pt (Rob)
The Nice Guy 4/1 1pt#
The Nice Guy 4/1 1pt#
The Nice Guy 4/1 2pts (Rob)#
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt
El Fabiolo 5/1 1pt (Rob)
Hunters Yarn 10/1 1pt
Hunters Yarn 10/1 1pt
Gala Marceau 16/1 2pts
Galliard du Mesnil 5/1 1pt
Galliard du Mesnil 5/1 2pt (Rob)
Spanish Harlem 33/1 1pt​
 
Jonbon was 4's as well. As I said, once final decs are out and horses slotted in, take another look at that list.
 
And of course they’re only the ones you’ve backed Lobos, no doubt there were countless other offerings available.
Dandrew99 was asking what value the ‘any race’ markets offered and your diary was pretty much the only reference point available.
For me it would be a different ball game if they allowed multis and I’d certainly see the benefit….
 
last night on road to cheltenham I thought it quite taking how D.jacob spoke about Appreciate it, was clearly gushing. Then lydia asked what he thought of El fabiolo, of course he talked him up, also said he'd take any horse on with him..... but does anyone else who has seen RTC have any thoughts on this? I thought there was a hint of appreciate it is a different level??
 
AaronLad said:
last night on road to cheltenham I thought it quite taking how D.jacob spoke about Appreciate it, was clearly gushing. Then lydia asked what he thought of El fabiolo, of course he talked him up, also said he'd take any horse on with him..... but does anyone else who has seen RTC have any thoughts on this? I thought there was a hint of appreciate it is a different level??
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I agree with you there.

He came out with some right superlatives about him and the way his tone of voice changed compared to El Fabiolo who he also said great things about (but then he is obliged to say them about him). Though he did say after that he would take on any horse with El Fab (maybe more retained rider talk to get the ride)
 
Winging The Last said:
I agree with you there.

He came out with some right superlatives about him and the way his tone of voice changed compared to El Fabiolo who he also said great things about (but then he is obliged to say them about him). Though he did say after that he would take on any horse with El Fab (maybe more retained rider talk to get the ride)
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It was almost as if he thought it was common knowledge Appreciate it was considered mullins number 1. All my own opinion of course but anyone who hasn't seen it I would certainly encourage it.
 
AaronLad said:
last night on road to cheltenham I thought it quite taking how D.jacob spoke about Appreciate it, was clearly gushing. Then lydia asked what he thought of El fabiolo, of course he talked him up, also said he'd take any horse on with him..... but does anyone else who has seen RTC have any thoughts on this? I thought there was a hint of appreciate it is a different level??
Click to expand...

I've watched it and came out with the opinion that although as nice as Daryl is, he doesn't know which Mullins horses are the best, never mind where they could end up at Cheltenham.
 
YoungHustler said:
I've watched it and came out with the opinion that although as nice as Daryl is, he doesn't know which Mullins horses are the best, never mind where they could end up at Cheltenham.
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Yeah you're probably right. Didn't say about El Fab "the world is his oyster" though, Did he? :barbershop_quartet_member:
 
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