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2023 Bumper

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PresentingPercy said:
Interesting interview with Patrick Mullins regarding Chapeau De Soleil's performance last time out. In summary, he hung badly to the left most the way around that took away most of his momentum, only when a running rail appeared to his left in the last furlong did he knuckle down to the task. Supposedly a big surprise to PM that he acted as such..

https://twitter.com/SportingLife/status/1601989438023684097?s=20&t=3BEgy-Dzqyo7CYlc0PXFTw
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The way Patrick hopes that he follows Ferny Hollow tells me that they see CDS as the Bumper horse to go to Cheltenham so I’m in no hurry to cover any other Mullins runners right now.

At least I hope that’s what happens :welcoming:
 
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BookieBasher said:
The way Patrick hopes that he follows Ferny Hollow tells me that they see CDS as the Bumper horse to go to Cheltenham so I’m in no hurry to cover any other Mullins runners right now.

At least I hope that’s what happens :welcoming:
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That's the way I see it too. Maybe just get Gordon's covered if you haven't already. Nice prices to be had on all the ones at the top of the market so could be a profitable race for those book building types.
 
I'm not sure that Willie ever has THE bumper horse to go to Cheltenham. More like half a dozen A horse to go there. He's won 4 of the last 5 editions with 4 different jockeys.
 
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archie said:
I'm not sure that Willie ever has THE bumper horse to go to Cheltenham. More like half a dozen A horse to go there. He's won 4 of the last 5 editions with 4 different jockeys.
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Personally think it's Gordon's year again this year. You do have to respect what Patrick rides though over everything else. Yes it might not work out like that on the day. It does seem this year that he has less to throw at the race.............at this point anyway!
 
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BookieBasher said:
The way Patrick hopes that he follows Ferny Hollow tells me that they see CDS as the Bumper horse to go to Cheltenham so I’m in no hurry to cover any other Mullins runners right now.

At least I hope that’s what happens :welcoming:
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Sorry but I just can't see any way Chapeau De Soleil wins the Champion Bumper.

His debut performance was at least a stone below the level he needed to produce.

Ok, there were excuses and the stable vibes were seemingly very positive - but I'd say there's only a very small per centage chance he can find the necessary improvement to come out top in March.

I'm convinced we have yet to see the Bumper winner appear on a race course this season.

Maybe it won't be one of Willie's - but it could easily be one of his supporting case who takes top honours. We've seen that happen 3 times in the last 10 years with Ferny Hollow, Relegate and Briar Hill.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Sorry but I just can't see any way Chapeau De Soleil wins the Champion Bumper.

His debut performance was at least a stone below the level he needed to produce.

Ok, there were excuses and the stable vibes were seemingly very positive - but I'd say there's only a very small per centage chance he can find the necessary improvement to come out top in March.

I'm convinced we have yet to see the Bumper winner appear on a race course this season.

Maybe it won't be one of Willie's - but it could easily be one of his supporting case who takes top honours. We've seen that happen 3 times in the last 10 years with Ferny Hollow, Relegate and Briar Hill.
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I'd take the opposite view on CDS. He showed enough on debut, considering how badly he hung, that he can turn that form round with BDA.

If he'd dropped out the back of the TV I'd have written him off - that looked likely at one stage - but he picked up and flew home towards the end.

I'd be fairly confident that we'll see a different performance nto.
 
Two of those winners didn't start out until January as well so a good point made Norton's.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Sorry but I just can't see any way Chapeau De Soleil wins the Champion Bumper.

His debut performance was at least a stone below the level he needed to produce.

Ok, there were excuses and the stable vibes were seemingly very positive - but I'd say there's only a very small per centage chance he can find the necessary improvement to come out top in March.

I'm convinced we have yet to see the Bumper winner appear on a race course this season.

Maybe it won't be one of Willie's - but it could easily be one of his supporting case who takes top honours. We've seen that happen 3 times in the last 10 years with Ferny Hollow, Relegate and Briar Hill.
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Did you think the same about Ferny Hollow after his bumper debut?! I agree with FM.. the horse did absolutely everything wrong, yet still managed to finish as well as he did. That was pretty remarkable Id say. Clearly he isn't the most straight forward, but he is with the master and there can be no doubting he must have some engine.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Did you think the same about Ferny Hollow after his bumper debut?! I agree with FM.. the horse did absolutely everything wrong, yet still managed to finish as well as he did. That was pretty remarkable Id say. Clearly he isn't the most straight forward, but he is with the master and there can be no doubting he must have some engine.
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In a word, no.

Ferny Hollow ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper as Chapeau De Soleil - and Ferny's performance was more than a stone better than CDS. It put him bang in the mix with the best bumper horses of the past decade.

Compare the two on debut:

FERNY HOLLOW gave Eric Bloodaxe 3lbs and was beaten two-and-a-half lengths.
The time was 4mins 0.4secs on yielding to soft ground. The race was 1 second quicker than Envoi Allen (carried 1lb more) in the Royal Bond the same day.
Ferny Hollow earned a 128 rpr. Eric Bloodaxe was given 131.

CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL was beaten just over 3 lengths by Better Days Ahead off level weights.
The time was 4mins 31 secs on soft ground. The race was more than 21 seconds slower than Marine Nationale (carried 5lbs more) in the Royal Bond.
Chapeau De Soleil earned a 112rpr. Better Days Ahead got 120.

Love em or hate em, bumper debut rprs are pretty important in trying to pick the winner of the Champion Bumper in March - specially in recent years.

The last 4 winners have all posted at least 128 on debut. It doesn't guarantee victory but that's what is needed to be in the mix.

Facile Vega 128
Sir Gerhard 131
Ferny Hollow 128
Envoi Allen 131
Relegate 99
Fayonagh 81
Ballyandy 102
MoonRacer 118 from previous season, 131 on bumper debut in season he won CB)
Silver Concorde 111
Briar Hill 115
Champagne Fever 126​

It's possible to argue the last 4 winners of the CB have all been exceptional - and we're about due another winner who posted a modest debut rpr.

But with the amount of money being spent on top French horses and PTP horses I'd have thought the standard of the CB will only go up.

So Chapeau De Soleil at 11-1 - no thanks. Reckon he should be almost double those odds right now.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
In a word, no.

Ferny Hollow ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper as Chapeau De Soleil - and Ferny's performance was more than a stone better than CDS. It put him bang in the mix with the best bumper horses of the past decade.

Compare the two on debut:

FERNY HOLLOW gave Eric Bloodaxe 3lbs and was beaten two-and-a-half lengths.
The time was 4mins 0.4secs on yielding to soft ground. The race was 1 second quicker than Envoi Allen (carried 1lb more) in the Royal Bond the same day.
Ferny Hollow earned a 128 rpr. Eric Bloodaxe was given 131.

CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL was beaten just over 3 lengths by Better Days Ahead off level weights.
The time was 4mins 31 secs on soft ground. The race was more than 21 seconds slower than Marine Nationale (carried 5lbs more) in the Royal Bond.
Chapeau De Soleil earned a 112rpr. Better Days Ahead got 120.

Love em or hate em, bumper debut rprs are pretty important in trying to pick the winner of the Champion Bumper in March - specially in recent years.

The last 4 winners have all posted at least 128 on debut. It doesn't guarantee victory but that's what is needed to be in the mix.

Facile Vega 128
Sir Gerhard 131
Ferny Hollow 128
Envoi Allen 131
Relegate 99
Fayonagh 81
Ballyandy 102
MoonRacer 118 from previous season, 131 on bumper debut in season he won CB)
Silver Concorde 111
Briar Hill 115
Champagne Fever 126

It's possible to argue the last 4 winners of the CB have all been exceptional - and we're about due another winner who posted a modest debut rpr.

But with the amount of money being spent on top French horses and PTP horses I'd have thought the standard of the CB will only go up.

So Chapeau De Soleil at 11-1 - no thanks. Reckon he should be almost double those odds right now.
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That time is a nonsense though. They stood still as the tapes went up and then walked for a furlong or two. It basically turned into a sprint.

Not sure any NH horse would be seen to beat effect in those circumstances.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
That time is a nonsense though. They stood still as the tapes went up and then walked for a furlong or two. It basically turned into a sprint.

Not sure any NH horse would be seen to beat effect in those circumstances.
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Fair enough Faugheen_Machine - but that rpr is still a long way from where you'd expect it to be if we've just seen the CB winner.

Hope you are well and look forward to hopefully seeing you in that spot beside the weighing room next March.
 
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nortonscoin200 said:
In a word, no.

Ferny Hollow ran in the same Fairyhouse bumper as Chapeau De Soleil - and Ferny's performance was more than a stone better than CDS. It put him bang in the mix with the best bumper horses of the past decade.

Compare the two on debut:

FERNY HOLLOW gave Eric Bloodaxe 3lbs and was beaten two-and-a-half lengths.
The time was 4mins 0.4secs on yielding to soft ground. The race was 1 second quicker than Envoi Allen (carried 1lb more) in the Royal Bond the same day.
Ferny Hollow earned a 128 rpr. Eric Bloodaxe was given 131.

CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL was beaten just over 3 lengths by Better Days Ahead off level weights.
The time was 4mins 31 secs on soft ground. The race was more than 21 seconds slower than Marine Nationale (carried 5lbs more) in the Royal Bond.
Chapeau De Soleil earned a 112rpr. Better Days Ahead got 120.

Love em or hate em, bumper debut rprs are pretty important in trying to pick the winner of the Champion Bumper in March - specially in recent years.

The last 4 winners have all posted at least 128 on debut. It doesn't guarantee victory but that's what is needed to be in the mix.

Facile Vega 128
Sir Gerhard 131
Ferny Hollow 128
Envoi Allen 131
Relegate 99
Fayonagh 81
Ballyandy 102
MoonRacer 118 from previous season, 131 on bumper debut in season he won CB)
Silver Concorde 111
Briar Hill 115
Champagne Fever 126

It's possible to argue the last 4 winners of the CB have all been exceptional - and we're about due another winner who posted a modest debut rpr.

But with the amount of money being spent on top French horses and PTP horses I'd have thought the standard of the CB will only go up.

So Chapeau De Soleil at 11-1 - no thanks. Reckon he should be almost double those odds right now.
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Fair play Nortons.. a very reasoned and conclusive response! As you allude to though, it is possible to say the last 4 winners were exceptional. CdS's debut run would therefore be better than 4 of the previous 5 winners before that, so its hard to be certain that RPR's for debut runs are particularly important.

Personally, Im always very wary of using times in races of this nature, there are so many factors that make them unreliable.

Im really looking forward to seeing the horse again and would be very confident he will reverse form with the winner. I was really surprised how he finished considering how he raced the whole way round.
 
nortonscoin200 said:
Fair enough Faugheen_Machine - but that rpr is still a long way from where you'd expect it to be if we've just seen the CB winner.

Hope you are well and look forward to hopefully seeing you in that spot beside the weighing room next March.
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The RPR will be partly based around the time of the race though, so you could mark it up based on the argument that the time is nonsense. How much you or anyone else mark it up is obviously open to opinion, as are most things in racing.

I'm certainly willing to give Chapeau De Soleil another chance, even more so at a left handed track, if he doesn't win next time out then I could understand the reservations, for sure.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Personally, Im always very wary of using times in races of this nature, there are so many factors that make them unreliable.
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Yea NH racing and comparing race times is very subjective compared to the flat. You look long enough you’ll find what you want to see.

On paper FV ran a slow time in his maiden hurdle and put up an rpr129; nothing crazy but you still wouldn’t lay him given what we know. Really no two NH races are the same, they aren’t running in like for like fields with the exact same race pace and opposition tactics.There’s too many factors that make up that time in NH racing.The bumpers too are often ran slow and standoffish.

Edit - On that times/rpr; Gaelic Warrior posted a 150 rpr in his 2m maiden. Is he really 21 pounds better off than FV? Would Clonsutton think that’s the right balance between them two?
 
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