I'll add the disclaimer that I was already considering backing Shoot First before GL tipped him but hadn't got around to fully deciding but I think you're being a bit harsh here Charlie...
The case for Shoot First actually fits a lot of what I perceive to be your key points...
CD form, albeit old course rather than the new they run on in March I think
Guaranteed target and won't run before then
BHA Performance Rating of 137 guaranteeing lovely weight at the festival
Trainer is a master with handicap plots (or past master, no reason why he can't have a renaissance)
Horse was already on GL's list as one to follow before the Pertemps Qualifier
Only 4 qualifiers from each race for Pertemps meaning a smaller pool of potential flyers to beat him
I agree this place is more valuable for Cheltenham and that trying to find the Boodles winner in November last year was ridiculous, but for me, the conditions of the Pertemps this year make it almost as attractive as novice hurdles/chases for betting, except that we already know if the horse can jump/run over CD or not and there's no Mullins Bingo! I don't think it's a bad tip, albeit it's nothing mindblowing