General Chat

[AaronLad]

Hi Outlaw

Are you sure? I thought horses could not run only if they had won a Class 1 or 2 chase 19 months before the race or who had been placed in a Grade 1 or 2 chase 15 months before? Samcro finished 3rd at Down Royal on 17th March at Down Royal but that doesn’t appear to have been a Grade 1 or Grade 2 and his place at Navan on the 7th Nov ‘21 will be 16 months ago come the time of the Hunter Chase at the Festival.

If he’s going down the point to point route, he will also have to win two point-to-point races prior to sometime in the February prior to the Festival but he may well do that by then.

What race condition do you think he doesn’t meet?

CNC

For anyone interested Samcro won a point to point by 32 lengths at Tinahely on Sunday.

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Think the cut off point is anything after 1st October 2021 so the Navan second to notebook was in a grade 2 ruling him ineligible.

Yeah, just took another look and I think you’re right. The 15 month cutoff is date from 1st Jan 2023 (not the date of the race) hence anything place in a graded race after 1st October 2021 will render them ineligible. Thank you,

 

[Eggs]

….for those catching up, the Gordon Elliott stable tour is in the Members Section.

 

[Always a Claimer]

Hello all, I backed three very early doors for the bumper (unusual and probably a little OTT!) but got on Demanddrivingdouvan, Better Days Ahead and Barry The Butcher. Am I right in thinking Demanddrivingdouvan is more likely (or even has) to go down the hurdling route? What about the others? Sorry if answered elsewhere tried to find some updates but couldn’t…

 

[DenmanSacre]

Hello all, I backed three very early doors for the bumper (unusual and probably a little OTT!) but got on Demanddrivingdouvan, Better Days Ahead and Barry The Butcher. Am I right in thinking Demanddrivingdouvan is more likely (or even has) to go down the hurdling route? What about the others? Sorry if answered elsewhere tried to find some updates but couldn’t…

Demandrivingdouvan will go hurdling. BDA bumpers and BTB we don't know.

 

[Eggs]

….Olly Murphy, Chris Gordon & Harry Derham added to the Stable Tour thread.

 

[Atlantic Viking]

Hello all, I backed three very early doors for the bumper (unusual and probably a little OTT!) but got on Demanddrivingdouvan, Better Days Ahead and Barry The Butcher. Am I right in thinking Demanddrivingdouvan is more likely (or even has) to go down the hurdling route? What about the others? Sorry if answered elsewhere tried to find some updates but couldn’t…

BTB is with Henry so that'd have to be a negative so far as the champion bumper is concerned.

 

[Lbur4288]

BTB is with Henry so that'd have to be a negative so far as the champion bumper is concerned.

Sadly one I think will be kept back a year.

 

[Outlaw]

Hi Outlaw

Are you sure? I thought horses could not run only if they had won a Class 1 or 2 chase 19 months before the race or who had been placed in a Grade 1 or 2 chase 15 months before? Samcro finished 3rd at Down Royal on 17th March at Down Royal but that doesn’t appear to have been a Grade 1 or Grade 2 and his place at Navan on the 7th Nov ‘21 will be 16 months ago come the time of the Hunter Chase at the Festival.

If he’s going down the point to point route, he will also have to win two point-to-point races prior to sometime in the February prior to the Festival but he may well do that by then.

What race condition do you think he doesn’t meet?

CNC

Hey seen this late, as a few have eluded a top 3 in a G1/2 in the season prior is a no no. Ran 2nd to Notebook in the G2 Fortria Nov21.

 

[Exar Essay]

Sadly one I think will be kept back a year.

Agreed. Probably a bumper later in the year - possibly the one Journey With Me and Bob ran in (and Arctic Bresil should've this year).

 

[Lbur4288]

Agreed. Probably a bumper later in the year - possibly the one Journey With Me and Bob ran in (and Arctic Bresil should've this year).

Exactly my thoughts, he's in my tracker already so hopefully I get a notification soon though.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Agreed. Probably a bumper later in the year - possibly the one Journey With Me and Bob ran in (and Arctic Bresil should've this year).

I think they have another one for that specific bumper. Henry has used it in the past for a horse that ran in a PTP in November/December and then brought into the yard for that bumper. Bob, JWM and Minella Melody all followed that pattern, and Arctic Bresil also would have followed that pattern if he was declared. Monalee also ran in a PTP in January then in that bumper finishing 2nd.

Trainers tend to be a creature of habit and it wouldn't fit Henry's pattern for Barry to run in that one.
​​​​

 

[RoadToCheltenham]

Looks likely, i’d imagine if back before December his focus will be the Peterborough Chase

Yep, shame really. Sporting Life uploaded a Skelton tour 4 hours ago and Harry is talking quite openly (12:55 onwards) about aiming for the Old Roan too, though does say they'll try and get a run into him before the Old Roan so maybe just decided they didn't want to run in that first time out...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B93_nWejFoQ

 

[BookieBasher]

With all the whispers around of potentially Epatante going down the Mares hurdle route and Marie’s Rock stepping up to 3m, I was a bit surprised to see Kevin Blake make Marie’s Rock his NAP of the Festival for the Mares Hurdle on Attheraces preview

 

[Lobos]

With all the whispers around of potentially Epatante going down the Mares hurdle route and Marie’s Rock stepping up to 3m, I was a bit surprised to see Kevin Blake make Marie’s Rock his NAP of the Festival for the Mares Hurdle on Attheraces preview

Yep. Can't see Epatante staying 2 1/2m at Cheltenham one bit especially on first day when ground is at its softest. She'll stick to the Churdle or more likely be saved for Aintree. No reason at all to sway from Mares Hurdle for Marie's Rock as this year's winner. Can't see the sense in that at all. Would be very 'unlike' Henderson as well. He always sticks to what he and his horses know best.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Yep. Can't see Epatante staying 2 1/2m at Cheltenham one bit especially on first day when ground is at its softest. She'll stick to the Churdle or more likely be saved for Aintree. No reason at all to sway from Mares Hurdle for Marie's Rock as this year's winner. Can't see the sense in that at all. Would be very 'unlike' Henderson as well. He always sticks to what he and his horses know best.

Agreed

Maries rock outstayed her at punchestown when Stormy Ireland made it a test

She looked good at Aintree but that race seemed to fall apart and isn't form I trust

I don't think any of zanahiyr, monmiral or mcfabulous ran to form that day

Unless they try Marie's rock at 3 miles and she wins a grade 1 i cant see her in the stayers

She actually won the mares pretty easily last season, nico played his hand as late as he dared she had way too much boot for queens brook and was going away at the line

The pornstar looks her main danger, she looks to have a huge engine and will be way better going left handed

 

[Exar Essay]

Was having a look at Bumper stuff and came across a post from nortonscoin200 from this time last year (15th October to be precise). The post included all horses available to bet on from odds checker. Of those horses, I think, only American Mike even ran! Shows how unnecessary it is to get involved at this stage of the year, with the exception of Gordon's Down Royal Horse. I say that having backed 6 already ... planning to cash out some, but still ...

The list for anyone interested:

10-1 Classic Getaway 125
12-1 Pink in the Park 115
12-1 Grangeclare West 115
20-1 American Mike
20-1 Cool Survivor
20-1 Hunters Yarn 100
20-1 Dark Raven 121
25-1 I Am Maximus 125
25-1 Guily Billy (going hurdling says Henry)
25-1 Nikini 100
25-1 Jonbon 124
25-1 Hob House 106
25-1 Nos Na Gaoithe 99
25-1 Journey With Me 131
25-1 Dysart Dynamo 132
33-1 Timeforatune 120
33-1 Ashroe Diamond 113
33-1 Level Neverending 100
33-1 Au Fleuron 103
33-1 Glowing Account (Willie)
40-1 Champ Kiely 121
40-1 Go Dante 118
40-1 Non Binding 8 (coughed)
50-1 Might Potter 103
66-1 Wells Glory 109
100-1 Big Changes 92
100-1 Best Pal 82
100-1 Bolintlea 100

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Yep. Can't see Epatante staying 2 1/2m at Cheltenham one bit especially on first day when ground is at its softest. She'll stick to the Churdle or more likely be saved for Aintree. No reason at all to sway from Mares Hurdle for Marie's Rock as this year's winner. Can't see the sense in that at all. Would be very 'unlike' Henderson as well. He always sticks to what he and his horses know best.

I disagree about Epatante. It was her second try over 2m4f at Punchestown, and she had no break in between. She went Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown, all at the top level, Marie's Rock went there on the back of a break from Cheltenham, as did Stormy Ireland.

I'd say Epatantes best form is at Cheltenham, and her Champion Hurdle form (albeit over 2m) is head and shoulders above what Marie's Rock has beat in her career so far. She's won and placed twice in Champion Hurdles. Her close form ties with Honeysuckle have her ahead of the other mares, IMO. I believe the Mares Hurdle last season was a weak enough race, and still believe if Telmesomethinggirl had not been brought down she would have likely won. You bring Epatante into the race and you have that class angle. Brandy Love could also be absolutely anything. Not forgetting Love Envoi, who I know you like too. Marie's Rock is vulnerable this season, if they all turn up.

 

[nortonscoin200]

I disagree about Epatante. It was her second try over 2m4f at Punchestown, and she had no break in between. She went Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown, all at the top level, Marie's Rock went there on the back of a break from Cheltenham, as did Stormy Ireland.

I'd say Epatantes best form is at Cheltenham, and her Champion Hurdle form (albeit over 2m) is head and shoulders above what Marie's Rock has beat in her career so far. She's won and placed twice in Champion Hurdles. Her close form ties with Honeysuckle have her ahead of the other mares, IMO. I believe the Mares Hurdle last season was a weak enough race, and still believe if Telmesomethinggirl had not been brought down she would have likely won. You bring Epatante into the race and you have that class angle. Brandy Love could also be absolutely anything. Not forgetting Love Envoi, who I know you like too. Marie's Rock is vulnerable this season, if they all turn up.

Henderson has always insisted Epatante is an out-and-out two miler. Just can’t see anything to make him change his mind.

She’ll have another crack at the CH or she won’t show up, imo.

 

[fatherjohn]

Henderson has always insisted Epatante is an out-and-out two miler. Just can’t see anything to make him change his mind.

She’ll have another crack at the CH or she won’t show up, imo.

this is what hendo said. it definitely says he is cons8dering the mares hurdle so think we have to assume it is an option until proved otherwise. based on liklihood of her not showing she could beat CH or honeysuckle (which she never has) feels like it's the more likely option

https://twitter.com/RoadCheltenham/status/1574094638591447041?t=KdYRxflddTajWNzPdrouPA&s=19