2023 Novice Chasers

[Spectre]

Of the horses mentioned, I think it's more likely Blazing Khal stays over hurdles, and I think Gerri Colombe will too if he stays sound.

The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner look the most likely Brown Advisory horses to my eye. Both plenty scopey enough to appreciate a fence, and it's hard to find a dent in the form of either.

Of those at bigger prices Gentlemansgame is the one that interests me most. Three Stripe Life would but I think he's more likely to go down the Turners route.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Of the horses mentioned, I think it's more likely Blazing Khal stays over hurdles, and I think Gerri Colombe will too if he stays sound.

Both of these on my radar for a handicap plot, Pertemps being the obvious to me…

 

[Spectre]

I think Blazing Khal will get a Stayers campaign. Gerri Colombe won't stand much racing though as I understand it, and possibly needs winter ground, so a handicap plot would possibly be the way to go. One run for a mark and the boom in something valuable.

 

[BookieBasher]

I think Blazing Khal will get a Stayers campaign. Gerri Colombe won't stand much racing though as I understand it, and possibly needs winter ground, so a handicap plot would possibly be the way to go. One run for a mark and the boom in something valuable.

I know he flattered to deceive last season, but do you see Hollow Games as making a decent staying chaser?

 

[Exar Essay]

I think Blazing Khal will get a Stayers campaign. Gerri Colombe won't stand much racing though as I understand it, and possibly needs winter ground, so a handicap plot would possibly be the way to go. One run for a mark and the boom in something valuable.

Is this based on anything in particular, Spectre? Or just your feel? I had both pegged as likely novice chasers this year based on trainers previous comments.

 

[Spectre]

I know he flattered to deceive last season, but do you see Hollow Games as making a decent staying chaser?

I do and we know Elliott has always liked him. He's a big chasing type so you'd think he'd improve for a fence. I think he'll fall short of top class though, just as he has over hurdles. It'll be interesting to see how he's campaigned. Given a hurdles mark in the low 140's it may be that he's handicapped before he show's his real hand.

Ginto would likely have been the BANC horse, though it's conceivable that Hollow Games steps in now I guess.

 

[Spectre]

Is this based on anything in particular, Spectre? Or just your feel? I had both pegged as likely novice chasers this year based on trainers previous comments.

Instinct only EE. There have been no comments I've seen on either.

 

[OverTheLast]

Of the horses mentioned, I think it's more likely Blazing Khal stays over hurdles, and I think Gerri Colombe will too if he stays sound.

The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner look the most likely Brown Advisory horses to my eye. Both plenty scopey enough to appreciate a fence, and it's hard to find a dent in the form of either.

Of those at bigger prices Gentlemansgame is the one that interests me most. Three Stripe Life would but I think he's more likely to go down the Turners route.

Mighty Potter be Gordons Arkle horse you think Spectre? Agree Three Stripe Life will be a Turners horse and he will want to keep them apart.

 

[archie]

Have to agree with Spectre that The Nice Guy and Minella Cocooner are some way ahead of the others in the BANC betting. If you're building a book they're vital, and possibly only, components. If you're not building a book then, this far out, it's a total bargepole job.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Was kind of ridiculous that the nice guy did what he did last year

Only hitting the track in bumpers on 27th november

Winning a maiden hurdle end of January and being chucked into the bartlett and winning it easily and winning easily at punchestown

If he can jump a fence with fluency he will take a huge amount of beating as I can only see him getting better

 

[FinalFurlong91]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

 

[That Horse]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

FWIW I'm pretty sure Willie said somewhere last season that TNG was bought to be a chaser for this season. Obviously, even Willie can't predict the future but he must have the physical attributes, just needs to be an Erling Haaland on the pitch instead of a Darwin Nunez....

 

[Benjy23]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

Not basing this on much like but isn't the number of hurdles runs v chase runs skewed by his age? As he's not (and is never going to be now) a sire for very long I'd imagine most of his offspring haven't reached the usual sort of age they might go chasing. Assume his oldest are 8 , so obviously a few have but likely to see that state level out over the next few years I'd guess.

Not to say they'll make good chases like. Just purely thinking on the number of runs stat.

Could be massively wrong like and just be that their mostly more flat types and not suited to fences nthego:

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Not basing this on much like but isn't the number of hurdles runs v chase runs skewed by his age? As he's not (and is never going to be now) a sire for very long I'd imagine most of his offspring haven't reached the usual sort of age they might go chasing. Assume his oldest are 8 , so obviously a few have but likely to see that state level out over the next few years I'd guess.

Not to say they'll make good chases like. Just purely thinking on the number of runs stat.

Could be massively wrong like and just be that their mostly more flat types and not suited to fences nthego:

Maybe

But ballyadam was dreadful over fences
Foxy jacks can be a dodgy jumper
commander of fleets chasing career ended after loads of mistakes and 1 run
glory and fortune made loads of mistakes in his 2 chases and went back hurdling
home by the Lee won a few chases but was sent back hurdling

I'm hoping that none of this matters as the nice guy looked a big scopey sort and a bit of a freak ability wise

But I think il hold off adding him to anymore multis until iv seen him jump and have a little more on minella cocooner who wad comfortably second best staying novice hurdler

he's by flemensfirth so should relish a fence on pedigree

He was also a bit nuts so should be nice and brave and attack his fences

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Soaring Glory is set to go novice chasing this year according to Jonjo snr.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

It is worth noting that fame and glory doesn't produce chasers

He has a 12% Strike rate with both

But his progeny have run 2188 times over hurdles and only 292 times over fences

Suggests many over his progeny maybe dont have the size and scope for fences (the nice guy seemed a big lad to me so not sure this will be an issue)

lets hope hes a better jumper than ballyadam

This is a factor for me.

Some will have it down as irrelevant, but its of relevance to me.

I'd sooner side with Minella Cocooner than The Nice Guy, even more so at the prices.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I do and we know Elliott has always liked him. He's a big chasing type so you'd think he'd improve for a fence. I think he'll fall short of top class though, just as he has over hurdles. It'll be interesting to see how he's campaigned. Given a hurdles mark in the low 140's it may be that he's handicapped before he show's his real hand.

Ginto would likely have been the BANC horse, though it's conceivable that Hollow Games steps in now I guess.

I think he'll be campaigned as a handicapper, but likely a graded performer in the making, given the step up to fences likely to bring about improvement.

I'm not convinced he's a 3miler though, so I'd be looking at something like the plate, personally.

 

[Spectre]

Mighty Potter be Gordons Arkle horse you think Spectre? Agree Three Stripe Life will be a Turners horse and he will want to keep them apart.

You'd think so, but I don't think Mighty Potter would have a problem getting further. His breeding suggests two an half would end up being his optimum. He's also in different ownership than Three Stripe Life so it's feasible they both end up at the mid-trip. TSL would probably get three miles too, so it's impossible to discount the possibility of him going to the Brown Advisory. On balance though you'd think Mighty Potter two miles and The Strip Life two and half miles. Also Elliott is far more straightforward and easier to predict than Mullins, so I'm happy to play them that way.

 

[Kautostar]

You'd think so, but I don't think Mighty Potter would have a problem getting further. His breeding suggests two an half would end up being his optimum. He's also in different ownership than Three Stripe Life so it's feasible they both end up at the mid-trip. TSL would probably get three miles too, so it's impossible to discount the possibility of him going to the Brown Advisory. On balance though you'd think Mighty Potter two miles and The Strip Life two and half miles. Also Elliott is far more straightforward and easier to predict than Mullins, so I'm happy to play them that way.

Elliott could have others too that could go novice chasing this season.
Fil dor, teahupoo and saint felicien could all be Arkle/turners candidates.

 

[Spectre]

Yes agreed. Quilixios too. He and Teahupoo the ones that interests me most of those not already discussed.

Saint Felicien may end up down the handicap route, and Fil Dor will probably need another season.