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2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

All my love came at 5s but I wouldn't be afraid of a smash up at short prices on the day when all the facts are in front of me, but you're right 3/1 for an Arkle fav who has never jumped a fence in public isn't value....
 
Istabraq said:
All my love came at 5s but I wouldn't be afraid of a smash up at short prices on the day when all the facts are in front of me, but you're right 3/1 for an Arkle fav who has never jumped a fence in public isn't value....
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I suppose it is similar to Thistlecrack's price now isn't it.... as I am on at bigger I now am in a position to mock the price and say its wrong .... pockets talking I guess...

Identity Thief is going to be hard to be out of the mix certainly. Any chance it'll clash with Min on the way? There we're good points put forward about Old Guard being a good price and his comparable form with IT, the difference now is that IT has looked really good and OG hasn't but the theory regarding the handicap marks looks like it was very well thought out... (apologies for not going back and checking, maybe it was Faugheen)...
 
Blue heron out again tomorrow.. Was disappointed last time out having backed her for the Arkle at 22/1 was expecting a lot better but Dan Skelton was confident she'll come on a bucket for the run. Anything other than a massive win will be curtains for my bet..
 
Skelton said that about most of his top horses this year, he din't want them peaking in Nov/Dec, he wanted to ease them along to peak for the Spring...
 
That would be a treat. I can't see Nicky running Altior against Identity Thief at this stage of the season though, it'd be a tough introduction.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
That would be a treat. I can't see Nicky running Altior against Identity Thief at this stage of the season though, it'd be a tough introduction.
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If they get the rain app. False hope and excitement as usual I would say. RR on RP last night was talking about his horse's and he did talk up about Min.
 
Would absolutely love to see Altior turn up on Sunday but would be shocked if he did. Agree with Faugheen that it would be a big ask. Identity Thief has that 1 run under his belt and seemed to take to fences really well. It would be some statement if Nicky did declare Altior - first run over fences being at Cheltenham against a likely Arkle contender who already has a run under his belt. You'd have to take it as a massive sign of confidence in the horse. Here's what Henderson has said today:

He is in great form and worked particularly well this morning therefore I am extremely happy with him. We will give him a schooling session in the morning after which a more definitive decision with regards to his participation at Cheltenham will be made
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RR on RP last night was talking about his horse's and he did talk up about Min.
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I watched that today mousey - was a cracking watch/listen. And yes there's definitely some strong vibes coming out the stable that Min will be a tougher opponent this year - he'll need to be mind ;)
 
Plenty of blue on oddschecker for Min over last 24hrs. Ricci sounded bullish last night.
 
The better Min is, the more likely Yorkhill goes for the JLT.... then the doubles are in play and I can enjoy it :triumphant:

I would be scared of IT beating Min and crushing my dreams... I think I'd prefer the potential at this stage :encouragement:
 
Do you lads have any links to the rich ricci interview? I can't find it anywhere
 
If you join the dots together at the moment id say that Yorkhill will be staying over hurdles and going for the Champion Hurdle. Whether you can trust the dots though is another matter!
 
Market doesn't see it that way billymag, cheapest lay price is 110 for CH, I'd say the horse has chase targets and will only revert to timber if he shows jumping issues.
 
Can't see what dots you're joining billy?

The yard have two very credible options for the CH.

Ricci seems bullish enough that Min is going to take Altior on again, and we know Altior is going for the Arkle...

History would show us Ruby wanting to ride the best possible chance of winning as many races as he can... so 're-routing' Yorkhill away from both of those races....

They're my dots anyway....
 
Kevloaf said:
Can't see what dots you're joining billy?

The yard have two very credible options for the CH.

Ricci seems bullish enough that Min is going to take Altior on again, and we know Altior is going for the Arkle...

History would show us Ruby wanting to ride the best possible chance of winning as many races as he can... so 're-routing' Yorkhill away from both of those races....

They're my dots anyway....
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Got to say that's exactly how I see it. I'm struggling to think why they would keep him back for a crack at the CH. The only two reasons I can think are:

A. Graham Wylie is trying to force the target (maybe - but he has talked up Yorkhill being a Gold Cup horse)

B. Faugheen and Annie will be 10 in the 2018 CH so you feel this year maybe their last top chance at the race. Maybe Willie is thinking he thinks Yorkhill can take up the mantel of his CH main hope after this season? He'd be 8 in March 2018. (can't see it)

C. He's just not taking to fences (has been said he's taken to fences well in schooling so unlikely)

I can't see either really but that was my best look at why he could stay hurdling
 
Good luck to anyone in this forum predicting what race RR is going to put his horses :encouragement:
 
Only talk ive heard about chasing was from Ruby immediately after the Neptune when he said about the horse winning the Arkle with his mouth open. I might of missed chasing comments though, that is very very possible but these are the official comments ive heard.

After the Neptune win "I am wondering could Yorkhill come back to be a Champion Hurdle horse? Ruby got down and said he would win the Arkle with his mouth open next year so we go home and digest all that and see what we have. I thought he had plenty of speed and he really showed it on that ground" - Willie Mullins, trainer.

After Aintree win "I thought Yorkhill was beaten at the last. When I saw him beforehand after putting the saddle on I thought that Cheltenham was maybe taking its toll, so to put in a performance like that was very good. We´ll look at Punchestown, but I´d say we would probably put him away. I´d rather go Champion Hurdle or Arkle than World Hurdle. I was in the stand at Cheltenham thinking Champion Hurdle, but Ruby came in and said he´d win the Arkle with his mouth open, so that´s a tip for next year" - Willie Mullins

This is the most recent comments that i can find from the ATR stable tour "“He has won a point-to-point and jumps fences well, but we haven’t made a final decision whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing yet. I think he could make a fantastic hurdle horse. He isn’t too far away from a run.”

From the comments ive read it seems Willie is leaning towards Hurdling. The other dots that ive "joined together" is that Yorkhill is only 6 and Annie and Faugheen are both 8. Fair enough they will be 9 at this festival but its a big ask for them to come back and do it at 10, last ten year old was sea pigeon (well he he actually won it as an 11 year old as well), in 2018 Yorkhill would be at his peak, I wonder if there is a large degree of planning for the 2017/18 season. They dont seem to have an obvious one at the moment to take over from Annie and Faugheen. The other point is they are in different ownership and they had no problem pitching Nichols Canyon in last year against the Ricci horses on a few occasions.

I found it really interesting that Ricci but up American Tom on the ATR programme for the JLT the other night. I was lucky enough last year to hear the Min reports in August and got on at the start of the gamble, at the same time that i was told about Min i was also told that American Tom was their best Neptune horse. As a result ive had him on my radar since and he had become a forgotten horse, until Ricci ruined the price on Monday !!!lol But I wonder if they hold him in very high regard and he might be the one for the JLT.

So as far as i can see we only have Rubys immediate comments after the race to go on and people may have read too much into this, or i could be wrong. I also accept that being by Presenting he is bred for chasing but that doesnt help my argument, so we should ignore that!!!!
 
Targets and plans WILL change between now and March even if all trainers and owners were 100% honest so there's always uncertainty but I genuinely believe after the Vautour episode connections may be more open in what they are planning this year. I may look extremely stupid and niave saying so come the Tuesday in March but I think last year was a bit of a turning point.

Plus for me the likes of Annie Power, Faugheen and Douvan are horses where whatever race they are in - they'll have a HUGE chance of winning and be extremely short odds. The unknown targets are the main reason the odds are attractive right now.

I'd only ever use small stakes on these horses though - definitely couldn't tie up large bets in them
 
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