Faugheen_Machine
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2017 Stayers Hurdle
- Thread starter Old Vic
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gjt7756
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Been told through a tipster but nothing concrete reliable that yanworth will be campaigned over a minimum trip of 2m4f, but whether that means going right up to 3m for a WH tilt who knows, if he was just raced at 2m4f then you could mate take the view that they are trying to put the emphasis on his stamina for a strongly run CH as either Faugheen or Annie power will front run
billymag
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Yanworths dosage is not ideal but its better than Cole Hardens, Im not convinced this a race thats ideal for using dosage, they seem to go pretty slow for a championship race and then race from the top of the hill. I think i mentioned on another thread that Im a bit sceptical about the actual merits of dosage. Where i do think its really useful is in G1 staying chases or likes of the Grand National, ive had a lot of success using for them races.
Looking at the market Rawnaq is probably the first name you come to that you could say will line up (fitness permitting) with any confidence...
Thistlecrack, Alpha Des Obeaux, Yorkhill, Barters Hill, Bellshill, Un De Sceaux are all likely to be chasing (or already have been) and Ruby can only ride one of Annie, VVM, Nichols Canyon, Shaneshill etc...
Potential value to be had.... IF you can find a runner
All over this angle. Not sure if I have mentioned it yet! :highly_amused:
The JP angle regarding Jezki/Yanworth wouldn't put me off backing either if I fancied one. Numerous examples of him firing multiple bullets at a race! Maybe not specifically in the world hurdle but I wouldn't read in to that much.
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
billy - Yep that is specific ... both had a chance as AP 'picked the wrong one'. I'd agree with above that Yanworth was more likely to have a bash at the Champion Hurdle. Before the Neptune, a few pundits reckoned he was the banker of the festival and is a Champion Hurdler in waiting. Doesn't scream to me that he needs further... I'd agree with gjt latter part of his post.
Leman - I am, which probably means he won't travel over :encouragement:
Leman - I am, which probably means he won't travel over :encouragement:
A year too late. Would have claims if I was being generous but I'd feel so disappointed if an 'also-ran' for the champion hurdle was good enough to win the WH
Could be right, but this years renewal has the potential to be a fairly weak affair which may bring a few previous festival 'failures' into the reckoning....
Id be more concerned that there is something wrong with TNO than the trip. Hung in some races last year and always had a flat spot.
Shaneshill would be interesting if he ended up here.At least with TNO it looks like this will be the target (unless laid out for the Coral Cup).
Shaneshill would be interesting if he ended up here.At least with TNO it looks like this will be the target (unless laid out for the Coral Cup).
The 'Ryanair' World Hurdle 2017... Been giving this a little bit of thought again and I am going to think 'out-loud' now. Already got a bet on Rawnaq and I think people have made good cases for the Wylie horses (NC, Shaneshill) as well as for Jezki. One of the Ricci horses if they turned up (VVM, AP, F) would also be of great interest but as we know, too tough at this stage to know for sure who will turn up.
As 'Gigginstown' now sponser the race, I am just having a look through the Ryanair Chase to see if they've always had a runner...
2016 - 2nd and 3rd (Road to Riches & Valsuer Lido)
2015 - 3rd (Don Cossack)
2014 - 7th (Rathlin)
2013 - 2nd (First Lieutentant)
2012/11/10/09 - No Runner
I was hoping they'd ALWAYS had a runner in their own race... not the case but encouraging in the last 4 runnings for sure...
In the World Hurdle, last 5 runnings:
2016 - 2nd (Alpha Des Obeaux) (Sponsered)
2015 - 10th and 13th (Lieutentant Colonel & Tiger Roll Year after winning Triumph) - I'll come back to this....
2014 - 6th (Rule The World)
2013 - 5th (Bog Warrior)
2012 - No Runner
So to me it looks like they do like one in the World Hurdle, and especially now that they've got the sponsership, I can't see that trend ending. It is fairly common knowledge that they want Gold Cup horses, and that is fair enough, but there is enough evidence I feel to say confidently that they'll aim a fairly good horse at this race now. Most likely, one that is not yet ready to go novice chasing.
Looking down World Hurdle ante-post list on Oddschecker for Gigginstown horses:
Alpha Des Obeaux - Priced ranges from 10/1-16/1 (Shorter for the RSA)
Apples Jade - Price ranges from 8/1-16/1
Petit Mouchoir - 16s and only quoted with SJ
Gangster - 50/1 Sky & SJ 25/1 - only two quoted
Now that isn't very many to choose from, and I think they're definitely going to have a runner. I can't think of anything at the moment from left-field that would enter caulculations? I can't imagine any of the chasers coming back for a go at it, certainly not Don Cossack, Poli, Valsuer, R2R (Feel free to throw some suggestions in...)
So focussing on the only ones in the list... I found some quotes from Bryan Cooper from 5th Sept with the Racing Post..."We have a massive team for the winter and the novice hurdles and novice chasers look particularly strong," he said. "I'm really looking forward to Identity Thief and Petit Mouchoir going chasing."
So that elimates Petit Mouchoir from my thinking. A bit surprised Alpha Des Obeaux isn't mentioned as something he is looking forward to???
I can see Gangster lining up in the NH Chase (General 25/1 shot) or RSA chase (Where he is priced up by almost every bookie) as well. Which eliminates him from my thoughts too. He didn't run badly in the Albert Bartlett but 7th isn't noteworthy either as a future World Hurdle contender.
SO I am down to Apples Jade and Alpha Dex Obeaux. I think ADO is going chasing, I think I remember them saying he is a chaser in the making but can't remember who said it, or even if that happened! I could do with seeing that somewhere though so if anyone does remember and can back that up I'd appreciate it!
That leaves me with one...
Apples Jade. "She has to be the best juvenile I've trained," ... now she has always races over 16f, and she is generally a shorter price for the Champion Hurdle (between 8/1 and 10/1) however, I don't think (due to recent runnings) that it is a race that I think Gigginstown care very much for. Bar Identity Thief this year, who wasn't exactly a resounding success in the race, they don't seem to bother with it. If it was other connections, I'd say that the trainer would have some more sway, but they always seem very firm to me and Apples Jade being with Willie wouldn't scare me regarding a target.
At the price available, 16/1, I am willing to chance that they'll mirror what they did with Tiger Roll... and go for the World Hurdle. After winning the Triumph, Tiger Roll stayed at 16 furlongs right up until Cheltenham, where he tried 24f for the first time! I don't think they'll try that exact route, but before they even sponsered the race, they have tried quite hard to shoe-horn him in to the race, despite already having a runner in it... This to me means they do want a winner in this race and she looks a very special horse indeed.
I'd be interested to know your thoughts.... :encouragement:
As 'Gigginstown' now sponser the race, I am just having a look through the Ryanair Chase to see if they've always had a runner...
2016 - 2nd and 3rd (Road to Riches & Valsuer Lido)
2015 - 3rd (Don Cossack)
2014 - 7th (Rathlin)
2013 - 2nd (First Lieutentant)
2012/11/10/09 - No Runner
I was hoping they'd ALWAYS had a runner in their own race... not the case but encouraging in the last 4 runnings for sure...
In the World Hurdle, last 5 runnings:
2016 - 2nd (Alpha Des Obeaux) (Sponsered)
2015 - 10th and 13th (Lieutentant Colonel & Tiger Roll Year after winning Triumph) - I'll come back to this....
2014 - 6th (Rule The World)
2013 - 5th (Bog Warrior)
2012 - No Runner
So to me it looks like they do like one in the World Hurdle, and especially now that they've got the sponsership, I can't see that trend ending. It is fairly common knowledge that they want Gold Cup horses, and that is fair enough, but there is enough evidence I feel to say confidently that they'll aim a fairly good horse at this race now. Most likely, one that is not yet ready to go novice chasing.
Looking down World Hurdle ante-post list on Oddschecker for Gigginstown horses:
Alpha Des Obeaux - Priced ranges from 10/1-16/1 (Shorter for the RSA)
Apples Jade - Price ranges from 8/1-16/1
Petit Mouchoir - 16s and only quoted with SJ
Gangster - 50/1 Sky & SJ 25/1 - only two quoted
Now that isn't very many to choose from, and I think they're definitely going to have a runner. I can't think of anything at the moment from left-field that would enter caulculations? I can't imagine any of the chasers coming back for a go at it, certainly not Don Cossack, Poli, Valsuer, R2R (Feel free to throw some suggestions in...)
So focussing on the only ones in the list... I found some quotes from Bryan Cooper from 5th Sept with the Racing Post..."We have a massive team for the winter and the novice hurdles and novice chasers look particularly strong," he said. "I'm really looking forward to Identity Thief and Petit Mouchoir going chasing."
So that elimates Petit Mouchoir from my thinking. A bit surprised Alpha Des Obeaux isn't mentioned as something he is looking forward to???
I can see Gangster lining up in the NH Chase (General 25/1 shot) or RSA chase (Where he is priced up by almost every bookie) as well. Which eliminates him from my thoughts too. He didn't run badly in the Albert Bartlett but 7th isn't noteworthy either as a future World Hurdle contender.
SO I am down to Apples Jade and Alpha Dex Obeaux. I think ADO is going chasing, I think I remember them saying he is a chaser in the making but can't remember who said it, or even if that happened! I could do with seeing that somewhere though so if anyone does remember and can back that up I'd appreciate it!
That leaves me with one...
Apples Jade. "She has to be the best juvenile I've trained," ... now she has always races over 16f, and she is generally a shorter price for the Champion Hurdle (between 8/1 and 10/1) however, I don't think (due to recent runnings) that it is a race that I think Gigginstown care very much for. Bar Identity Thief this year, who wasn't exactly a resounding success in the race, they don't seem to bother with it. If it was other connections, I'd say that the trainer would have some more sway, but they always seem very firm to me and Apples Jade being with Willie wouldn't scare me regarding a target.
At the price available, 16/1, I am willing to chance that they'll mirror what they did with Tiger Roll... and go for the World Hurdle. After winning the Triumph, Tiger Roll stayed at 16 furlongs right up until Cheltenham, where he tried 24f for the first time! I don't think they'll try that exact route, but before they even sponsered the race, they have tried quite hard to shoe-horn him in to the race, despite already having a runner in it... This to me means they do want a winner in this race and she looks a very special horse indeed.
I'd be interested to know your thoughts.... :encouragement:
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Great post and love the thought process. It's funny regarding Alpha des Obeaux I've looked countless times for specific quotes on him going chasing but cannot find anything from O'Leary or Morris. Maybe quotes have been made on air so I just can't search back to them but it's always the line of 'he's always been considered a chaser' by the writer and never quotes. Whether it's been said off record or people have just made the assumption based on him being under Gigginstown?
Back to Apples Jade - I hadn't actually thought of her going for the race at all but you make a good point. I think it's fair to say she won't be going to the Mares race and is too young to be sent over fences so it does look like it's either this race or the champion hurdle with no other alternatives. Any clues in her breeding?
Back to Apples Jade - I hadn't actually thought of her going for the race at all but you make a good point. I think it's fair to say she won't be going to the Mares race and is too young to be sent over fences so it does look like it's either this race or the champion hurdle with no other alternatives. Any clues in her breeding?
jono
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
No 5 year old has ever won the world hurdle. Runners:
2016
No runners
2015
Tiger Roll 13th
Abbyssial 16th
2014
No runners
2013
2012
Smad Place 3rd
2011
No runners
2010
Ebadiyan 5th
2009
No runners
2016
No runners
2015
Tiger Roll 13th
Abbyssial 16th
2014
No runners
2013
2012
Smad Place 3rd
2011
No runners
2010
Ebadiyan 5th
2009
No runners
