2017 Champion Chase

[Kevloaf]

People do miss penalties. It would be a penalty kick, Sprinter Sacre is the goal keeper ... he might save it.

Sprinter is the best chaser I've ever seen and like you, I'd be cheering him on. However, I'm also a punter and when douvan lines up in this, it is a penalty kick .. that he could miss .. .

 

[Morning Glory]

People do miss penalties. It would be a penalty kick, Sprinter Sacre is the goal keeper ... he might save it.

I think they see Douvan as a new Kauto who could be effective at any trip. I really hope he comes over for the Tingle Creek.

Hard to see beyond the pair.

I wonder if Mrs Harrington can coax something more out of Sizing John ?

 

[paz247]

Willie- clear as mud


Douvan has done very well and he is very relaxed. Rachel Robbins is looking after him now that Gail Carlisle has gone to America.

"It is just a question as to whether we stay at two miles with him this season or up him to three miles.

"He settles very well and you'd think that he could get three miles but he is so good over two miles, why change it?

"He looks great and like them all, he put on a lot of weight over the summer."

I think it's Patrick they are talking to in the article so Willie may have other ideas

 

[Kevloaf]

I think they'll mirror Kauto by lining him up as fave in the Champion Chase :encouragement:

I think I said this a couple of pages back too, and it just makes sense to stick with the 2m chasing. They got close this year with UDS and you'd be struggling to get anyone who thinks UDS would beat Douvan over 2miles.

 

[oceans]

UDS would leave Douvan well behind based on open races form which Douvan has yet to contest. A good novice Douvan but there's been two better performances from 2-2m4f novices last season, Ar Mad in RP Henry VIII and Arzal at Aintree. The latter sadly lost his life and Ar Mad comes from an injury so Douvan is left to represent the novices with only an average display in the Arkle unable to get rid of Vaniteux until that fell 2 out, which Arzal got rid of whilst giving weight away.

Douvan is a classic hype horse of Mullins and could be found out in open company just like Pont A., C. Fever, Vautour, etc.. There's nothing in the form to say Douvan is a better horse than UDS, yet people truly bought that Mullins shtick again. Jokes on them.

 

[Kevloaf]

Bit harsh on Vautour ... his open company form includes a commanding Ryanair win and a King George 2nd.

Crabbing the Douvan Arkle performance because Vaniteaux fell could be dangerous too. The impressive fractions from douvan are the after that fall when he is pulling away. If vaniteaux has stayed up I think the victory would look much better.

Form isn't the only thing to look at. If Mullins doesn't aim UDS at this race, it'll be because they think Douvan would beat him ... they've already mentioned a step up in trip for UDS and that speaks volumes. They tried him over hurdles and up in distance after this race last year already.

 

[Old Vic]

I like strong opinions but maybe a bit harsh on Vautour - they can get over hyped though. Ballycasey was another one.

 

[Leman14]

On his day, Vautour is a monster. Unfortunately, his 'days' can be hard to predict. A horse I admire, but not one that I would back blindly

 

[Leman14]

I digress. If Douvan lines up, he wins. But too short for me.
(Although I remember thinking the same last year with UDS...)

 

[oceans]

I only included Vautour because people had the bar too high for him, and now they're doing it with Douvan. Both good horses with claims to win average renewals of the CC and GC but there were many like them in the past who found one or more too good. Talks of these 2 in particular being Mullins best horse in the yard, V. in 2015 and D. in 2016, when they have a monster like Faugheen who looms over them, only helps in the overhype that people fall for with their money.

I know trainers also fall for it and are fearful of going against them, thats my biggest concern actually as I place AP bets on some which I consider value bets and they might get rerouted in trip and/or festival race.

 

[jono]

There's an interesting stat about Willie Mullins and his record with his Chasers outside of novice company, in that a lot don't kick on as much as you may expect and am I right in thinking his record in the three Grade 1 chases at the festival is currently:

2m Champion Chase - never won
2m5 Ryanair - won with Vautour last year, first win in the race
3m2 Gold Cup - never won

He's obviously won open company races at the other festivals, throughout the season and he's peppered the frame and gone mighty close (On his Own in the Gold Cup for example was a stewards 2nd) but I think there it is something to just consider in the back of my mind when his chasers go from novice to open company.

That said I think that's an extremely harsh take on Douvan. I was at Cheltenham this year and admit when I watched the Arkle I was slightly disappointed in his performance. Seeing Vaniteux loom up just before falling 2 out made me think maybe the hype was getting just a tad too high. However looking back at the replay and later watching it a few times you can see just how hard NDB is pushing Vaniteux to get to Douvan and RW is motionless in the saddle still.

Douvan clearly has to prove his talent against better horses this season as it's a step up from the likes of Sizing John and The Game Changer and we won't know until hopefully he takes in the Tingle Creek. Personally I can't wait to see him contest better races as I think he'll raise his game to a whole new level and show just how good he is.

Plus you have to take onboard what connections are saying. When Willie, Ricci and Ruby are all saying he's probably the best they've ever had you have to take notice considering the horses he has had and currently has in his stable.

Oh and regarding Vautour - definitely not a hype horse. Proved his class and ability already. I honestly think if he had been campaigned differently (i.e with only his interests in mind not fitting in with the rest of the stable) he'd be even better, it's this issue which has held him back.

 

[Kevloaf]

Un De Sceaux had no solid open company form in the book until he put Sire De Grugy away and it justified his favouritism because SDG and SS has very tight form together when SS battled past to beat SDG.

Now at Cheltenham UDS didn't win but he was still the right favorite.

 

[Kevloaf]

Talks of these 2 in particular being Mullins best horse in the yard, V. in 2015 and D. in 2016, when they have a monster like Faugheen who looms over them, only helps in the overhype that people fall for with their money.
.

I don't remember losing any money on Vautour or Douvan at Cheltenham! .... maybe you're thoughts on bets falling down are different to mine

 

[oceans]

I don't remember losing any money on Vautour or Douvan at Cheltenham! .... maybe you're thoughts on bets falling down are different to mine

You should tell that to those that overhyped Vautour and thought he was going for the Arkle or RSA, and went for the weakest event instead. Then those who continued to overhype him and placed huge bets on his GC appearance and instead was sent for the weakest event. As for Douvan, his novice adversaries were average at best and many big players will lose their millions for his skinny odds once he comes in open company and fail to deliver like many other Mullins no-form hypes have done.

Remember, the Douvan hype was initially started by Mullins who said he was his best looking horse and Ricci explaining that Mullins likes him cause he eats apples from his hands and is a very relaxed horse. Then the next year it was exaggerated and said he's his best work horse and does everything he asks but Ruby always explained that the form isn't in the book and he needs to prove it on the course and as of yet he hasn't encountered any worthwhile novice that would lead to the conclusion he's better than UDS.

 

[Kevloaf]

Betting ante post and getting the target wrong shouldn't and doesn't affect a performance though. Vautour isn't hype, because he has delivered.

You can't claim Douvan's adversaries are average yet either because we don't know yet. In my opinion, even if they are average, he's still a class above because he is winning on the bridle.

Also, if he was the best work horse that isn't an exaggeration ... that's just a statement. Adds to the hype sure but there is some substance to it.

 

[jono]

Betting ante post and getting the target wrong shouldn't and doesn't affect a performance though.

Fully agree. Losing money because the horse runs in a different race has no bearing on how good the horse is

 

[oceans]

though when the hype of Vautour was so high as to be compared with Faugheen or Kauto, you'd imagine such horse would take on small tasks of big the races not the weakest G1 races from the festival. And when he does take on the big tasks against the big boys, like the KG or Irish Champion Chase, you'd imagine he can overcome them, such was the hype surrounding his name. Winning Ryanairs and JLT's is good but not great and not comparable with the likes he was by many who're doing the same with Douvan.

 

[jono]

I just think Willie Mullins wants the most grade 1 and specifically now festival winners as possible. It's highly unlikely he'll ever allow something like a Kauto/Denman campaigning like Paul Nicols did.

Also the fact there is no 2m4 hurdle race at Cheltenham means it's a lot less likely that Mullins can switch trips for his hurdlers where as the 3 trip options over fences allows more flexibility and can mean he can switch targets for horses a lot more

I think it was quite a close call between whether Vautour or Faugheen stayed hurdling for the Champion Hurdle. If it had been Vautour we could very well be saying the exact same thing about Faugheen...

 

[Kevloaf]

You say Vautour is taking the easy option, but many could argue the intermediate trip is his best, which wouldn't be the horses fault. If the Ryanair trip allows him to perform his highest possible rating then why is that the easiest way out? That trip may end up being Douvans nest trip in time, but if he wins the Champion Chase this year, who is to say that that form is any better than the Ryanair. For starters, Douvan has the 11 year old Sprinter to beat, and then a load of novices he has already got the beating of. The Ryanair may well end up being a deeper race. I am playing devils advocate a little there... but surely that is food for thought.

Kauto Star was hyped and lost against Denman, Long Run, Imperial Commander, as well as falling in the top two mile chases at the festival too! He wasn't unbeaten, just like Vautour isn't. I personally don't think Vautour is close to Kauto but whenever people did 'hype' Vautour up, that doesn't mean the majority thought that, the arguement about whether Kauto is better than Vautour would have been easy to weigh in behind Kauto before Vautour did get beaten in the King George...

 

[oceans]

We've derailed a bit the CC thread talking about Vautour who clearly doesn't have the speed for 2 miles. Winning the Supreme with his stamina and jumping perfectly every hurdle with Ruby saying he doesn't have the gears for a CH should've been clear enough and thats why he got rerouted. Evidence of the Irish CC was just a confirmation for those who kept saying Vautour can win at any trip. Just like they do now with Douvan, even though he never showed any proof on the track that he stays further than 2 miles.

Vautour's best trip might well be 2 and half but that doesn't take away the obvious fact that the best horses over fences are racing either in Arkle, RSA - novices, CC, GC - open company, the Ryanair and JLT are the weakest events. There are A/W horses who have long winning streaks on dirt but I wouldn't start comparing them with the top class performers of the flat until they race in the top races. I hope Mullins goes GC with Vautour this year and follow the Cue Card, Don Cossack route, with so many 11-yos and injured horses that are coming in this year's renewal it might have a good chance of winning it.