The Mares races

[darlojim]

Big move for Magic Daze in the Mares Chase. 20's into 12's in one move with Paddy Power/Betfair. Timed at 16.28 so will be interesting if others follow suit.

Probably wise to add her now with 365 if wanting to get on board, no doubt if she wins tomorrow she will be cut.

 

[Lobos]

Probably wise to add her now with 365 if wanting to get on board, no doubt if she wins tomorrow she will be cut.

Agree. Be interesting if she's cut for the Arkle pre race as well to potentially give some indication of her target.

 

[Madmoose]

Big move for Magic Daze in the Mares Chase. 20's into 12's in one move with Paddy Power/Betfair. Timed at 16.28 so will be interesting if others follow suit.

Could all change but Robcor manager Declan Phelan said Magic Daze for Arkle the other month and on the weekend prior to her run that Gin On Lime for the mares chase if good enough, Henry also said Cheltenham a possible for GOL in November before being put away for a few months.

 

[Lobos]

Thanks for that Madmoose and information from connections should always be taken very seriously. An 8 point drop In one go for the big Irish bookie is quite eye opening though and confuses matters somewhat.

 

[Muswell]

Big move for Magic Daze in the Mares Chase. 20's into 12's in one move with Paddy Power/Betfair. Timed at 16.28 so will be interesting if others follow suit.

16s TWAR with sky

 

[Madmoose]

Thanks for that Madmoose and information from connections should always be taken very seriously. An 8 point drop In one go for the big Irish bookie is quite eye opening though and confuses matters somewhat.

Problem is this is a common theme now with bookies in recent years prior to the horses running and with the flat slowing down it’s only going to become more frequent in the weeks to come. I understand from that certain bookmaker though.

 

[fatherjohn]

more and more im thinking that betting to win and then reinvesting is going to be a better route this year.

magic daze is still 5/2 tomorrow and would have to go below 6s for mares (if you bet both for 1pt) for the 20s now to be a better option.. I also think the twar prices are slower to update sometimes (gin on lime was) so possibly get the prices they are now (or not too far off)

cashout is being updat3d too quickly for me in a lot of cases on bet365 so I'm less focused on them than before

 

[Lobos]

Magic Daze smashed in for tomorrows race.

 

[Eggs]

16s TWAR with sky

….Magic Daze still 16-1 a/r and only 12-1 with Sky to win Mares Chase.

 

[Odin]

Thanks for that Madmoose and information from connections should always be taken very seriously. An 8 point drop In one go for the big Irish bookie is quite eye opening though and confuses matters somewhat.

I agree it can confuse matters, but I can't figure out what would have changed to cause it. GOL puts up a career best over 2m4f and trainer says she's likely to stay at that distance, connections have previously said she's likely to stay over that distance and that magic will hopefully be the arkle horse.

I understand it's an enormous drop, but if it's not across the board, it could just be a pre-emptive reaction to the fact she's actually gonna run tomorrow and that she's getting smashed for it? As a consequence, I'm just ignoring it and sticking with my position on her as an arkle horse for better or for worse!

 

[Lobos]

Or you could take the 20's for the Mares Chase and have her on board at big prices for both races with the option of cash out. Same for GOL. You can then react a bit nearer the time. I'd be very surprised if both weren't entered for both races anyway just in case anything happens or the ground goes against them or one or the other race looks very much stronger. There are so many things that can change as we see every year. Absolutely nothing is written in stone and it's best not to be caught out. They could quite easily end up in the same race.

 

[Lobos]

….Magic Daze still 16-1 a/r and only 12-1 with Sky to win Mares Chase.

How this can happen is beyond me. Mental.

 

[Eggs]

….Magic Daze 20-1 Mares Chase holding with 365 (cash-out); Hills & Lad (boost available). Doesn’t appear any change in her price for the Arkle.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree it can confuse matters, but I can't figure out what would have changed to cause it. GOL puts up a career best over 2m4f and trainer says she's likely to stay at that distance, connections have previously said she's likely to stay over that distance and that magic will hopefully be the arkle horse.

I understand it's an enormous drop, but if it's not across the board, it could just be a pre-emptive reaction to the fact she's actually gonna run tomorrow and that she's getting smashed for it? As a consequence, I'm just ignoring it and sticking with my position on her as an arkle horse for better or for worse!

I am doing the same. nthego:

 

[Odin]

Or you could take the 20's for the Mares Chase and have her on board at big prices for both races with the option of cash out. Same for GOL. You can then react a bit nearer the time. I'd be very surprised if both weren't entered for both races anyway just in case anything happens or the ground goes against them or one or the other race looks very much stronger. There are so many things that can change as we see every year. Absolutely nothing is written in stone and it's best not to be caught out. They could quite easily end up in the same race.

Unfortunately (even with cashout), this is a staking issue for me. I do have the reverse double (magic mares, gin arkle), but that is all I have. For anyone taking a book approach or who has the moolah to go down the cashout route, I agree your play is the logical one

 

[Lobos]

In all honesty , even I have posted too much regarding these 2 . On paper both have it all to do to get anywhere near the current market leaders should they turn up. They both potentially have Ew chances but we are most probably asking too much for them to win either race. Nice ones at the prices to have in the book should the top horses miss out though.