This is something I wrote in my diary. I've added it here because I forget sometimes that not everyone can see it:
'One I will mention specifically is Longclaw. Qualified early for his mark, and smartly run quietly behind Duffle Coat back in October at Wetherby. They haven't hidden Duffle Coat away this season, and he could be Triumph bound as the stable 3rd string off a mark of 142 and rising without leaving his box, or it's feasible he also goes to the Boodles near the top of the handicap. Whichever route I'm sure he'll run a solid race'.
'Longlaw based on Duffle Coat's mark is probably going to get something like 133 in the Boodles. I can't see how the assessor can give him much more. The handicapper is going to struggle to give him more than that after the Wetherby run that's under his jurisdiction. A peak 90 flat turf mark is easily in the right range, he clearly prefers the better ground that he's likely to get, and it's presumably why Elliott got his runs in early as part of some careful campaigning to link his mark to Duffle Coat. There will be plenty with good profiles for the race come March, and you wouldn't be putting the mortgage on anything this far out, but you can't ignore Elliott's record in this race. This one feels properly laid out as a long term plan, and 20/1 nrnb with PP feels well worth getting onside'.
Elliott has bossed this race the last few seasons, largely because of the multiple option he has, leaving him able to save one or two good ones for here and to manage their marks. Given the need to get three runs to get a mark, the two obvious ones are this one and Glorious Zoff, who also was given two runs in the UK (a long way) behind Monmiral, and a previous run at Sedgefield. At this point I wouldn't discount either winning the race, but assuming it normal good to soft ground for the Festival, I'm probably leaning slightly towards Longclaw. The caveat being he needs good to soft. If it's soft or worse I'd probably look to get out. And I suspect he'd be saved for elsewhere then anyway. Either way it leaves the double protection of backing nrnb with Paddy Power, or laying on the exchange if it became necessary. It's an Elliott horse in the Boodles, so I'd be confident of a profit in that circumstance.
It's also possible Duffle Coat comes here off a mark in the mid 140's. Even off top weight or close, his run in November suggests you wouldn't ignore him either, but 10/1 nrnb doesn't appeal.
