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Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

Added Energumene today from the TWAR with Hills at 27/1. A Tony Bloom owned horse who is currently trained by Willie Mullins. I had backed him for this seasons champion bumper but he didn’t win his 1st race but did win his next 2 including over hurdles last time out comfortably winning his maiden the weekend before the Festival. I would expect him to turn up at next seasons festival but it sure what race so took the TWAR.

I couldn’t find him in any of the dedicated novice hurdle markets? Anyone know why?!
 
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The King Pimm said:
Added Energumene today from the TWAR with Hills at 27/1. A Tony Bloom owned horse who is currently trained by Willie Mullins. I had backed him for this seasons champion bumper but he didn’t win his 1st race but did win his next 2 including over hurdles last time out comfortably winning his maiden the weekend before the Festival. I would expect him to turn up at next seasons festival but it sure what race so took the TWAR.

I couldn’t find him in any of the dedicated novice hurdle markets? Anyone know why?!
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I'd be surprised if he were to turn into a graded horse. He has won a maiden so will have to run in open company over hurdles next season, or a handicap.
 
Didn't want to clog up the ante post thread with comparing horses coming from PTP's and NHF races and this post centre's around Bob Olinger, who has been mentioned by a few members prior to this post and I wanted to get a grasp on where he would fit in at this stage of his career (improvement obviously likely):

It only revolves around RPR's and Top Speed (TS) figures, as none have official ratings coming from the PTP or NHF sphere that I am going to discuss.

Bob Olinger posted an RPR of 93 in his PTP, then followed up by hitting 135 on his NHF race debut, with a TS of 81, so I wanted to check against previous novice horses that had gone on to win in the Supreme and Ballymore hurdle races at the festival, as well as against some other bumper horses this season just gone.

All from their debut NHF runs.

Ballymore winners:

Envoi Allen - PTP: RPR 94
NHF: RPR 131
NHF: TS 20

City Island - NHF: RPR 123
NHF: TS 73

Samcro - PTP: RPR 92
NHF: RPR 118

Faugheen - PTP: RPR 90
NHF: RPR 136
TS: RPR 111


Supreme:

Shishkin - PTP: RPR 83 & 92
NHF: RPR 112
NHF: TS 82

Klassical Dream - No data

Summerville Boy - NHF: RPR 117

Altior - NHF: RPR 120

Festival bumper horses:

Ferny Hollow - PTP: RPR 93
NHF: RPR 128
NHF: TS 60

Appreciate It - PTP: RPR 82 & 90
NHF: RPR 129
NHF: TS 61

Queens Brook - PTP: RPR 73 & 82
NHF: RPR 123
NHF: TS 78

I've used debuts only for NHF races as that's all we have to go on for Bob Olinger, and of course many in this list went on to improve. I used the last 3 years winners for the Supreme and Ballymore and also one horse from recent times that I believe and i'm sure many do have gone on to become superstars, in this case Faugheen and Altior. I've also used the 1-2-3 from the bumper this season.

On the figures we have above, obviously not conclusive, it would appear on first glance that Bob Olinger could well become one to reckon with as the season progresses, he fits somewhere between Faugheen and Envoi Allen for what they all achieved at that point of their careers, and I personally believe we will see him near the head of any race market he is aimed at.

Trainer would have to be taken into consideration, and although I'd trust de Bromhead more with a chaser I don't think he is short of knowing what is needed to win a novice hurdle. Whether he can make it happen may be another thing.

I wanted a record of this so posted it on the forum as this is my go to place for all things Cheltenham now.

Currently 33/1 for both the Supreme and Ballymore, or alternatively 16/1 (can be boosted) any race with Hills.
 
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Nice one COD, I am not looking anywhere but Bob Olinger for the Ballymore at this moment of time (early for me to make that judgement).

The last time I backed a Bumper winner so early for Cheltenham the following year, with such assurance, was Faugheen after his romp home on his bumper debut. I backed Faugheen for the Supreme, Ballymore and Any Race (14/1) as he looked to have a lot of pace.

On this occasion I am with Bob Olinger for the Ballymore only.
 
Saxon Warrior said:
Nice one COD, I am not looking anywhere but Bob Olinger for the Ballymore at this moment of time (early for me to make that judgement).

The last time I backed a Bumper winner so early for Cheltenham the following year, with such assurance, was Faugheen after his romp home on his bumper debut. I backed Faugheen for the Supreme, Ballymore and Any Race (14/1) as he looked to have a lot of pace.

On this occasion I am with Bob Olinger for the Ballymore only.
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I suspect it will be Ballymore too, I topped up today on this race only, but have him in the Supreme for now, as can cash (likely for profit if he shows up how we expect) when need to.
 
:encouragement: Time I joined the bandwagon I think. Interesting stuff.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I suspect it will be Ballymore too, I topped up today on this race only, but have him in the Supreme for now, as can cash (likely for profit if he shows up how we expect) when need to.
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Cracking stuff CoD - love the stats! I've got him in the Supreme too but from what we know so far the Ballymore looks ideal.
 
I've got Bob in the Ballymore too ,was thinking whether or not.
to add him for the Supreme , But like you guys , think Ballymore.
more likely , I also like Farouk D'alene , who J.M mentioned a while ago.
also wondering if Farouk D might go to the Al Bartlett nov hdl.
So coincidentally today , i did a patent of.....
Uhtred - supreme n.hdl.
Bob Olinger - ballymore n.hdl.
Farouk d'alene - al bartlett n.hdl.
 
BigChaang said:
I've got Bob in the Ballymore too ,was thinking whether or not.
to add him for the Supreme , But like you guys , think Ballymore.
more likely , I also like Farouk D'alene , who J.M mentioned a while ago.
also wondering if Farouk D might go to the Al Bartlett nov hdl.
So coincidentally today , i did a patent of.....
Uhtred - supreme n.hdl.
Bob Olinger - ballymore n.hdl.
Farouk d'alene - al bartlett n.hdl.
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Personally I see Uhtred either an Albert Bartlett or Martin Pipe horse. Be surprised if he's good enough to go close in a Supreme or Ballymore. His breeding suggests a trip too.
 
Some great input there CoD, thanks.

I’ve never places huge emphasis on RPRs unless in top level company and I remember going through an Irish bumper last season and was taken that 3/4 horses all had PTP RPRs around 88/90 which, at the time, I didn’t consider to be particularly high but having seen the PTP ratings of last years heroes I accept now this is a good mark.
It would be interesting if we could see a list of the highest rated PTP horses from seasons past to see how many progress under rules.

Clearly on your research Bob O is a talent, the usual head scratcher of what his target may be exists but a small any race play may be wise.

Thanks CoD, solid work...
 
While Bob Olinger was indubitably impressive, I tend to look on it as his second experience of racing rather than a debut and I'm not sure that the stats, well researched though they were, are that meaningful. It's been noted elsewhere that the bumper ratings this year seem to be out of kilter with previous years and we can't really be sure about how good a performance it was until he or the placed horses reappear. It's a great shame that all the end of season winner's bumpers were lost because we really are still in the dark as to the relative merits of several of these.

As it happens, I have a little inside knowledge of the family because I had a share in (half-sister) Myska. Zenaide has thrown a couple of decent sorts and they seem to have produced their best results at 2 miles although we didn't have much doubt that Myska got 2m4f. A slight niggle would be that none of the produce were particularly robust. We also had a full sister to Myska who never even made the track.

Having said all that, whatever way you look at it, 33/1 is a much better proposition than the ridiculous price of Ballyadam.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Personally I see Uhtred either an Albert Bartlett or Martin Pipe horse. Be surprised if he's good enough to go close in a Supreme or Ballymore. His breeding suggests a trip too.
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We seem to disagree massively on Uhtred :devilish: The below is from my diary on 1st April. Fame And Glory has sired progeny that have been suited to a range of distances so that would not put me off, especially given his limited numbers. If you watch the last run of Uhtred that does not scream 3 miler to me.

Uhtred – Supreme Novices Hurdle
Although the focus will be on the festival bumper (even more so that Aintree and Punchestown will be cancelled), I’m going to look outside of that race for two novice hurdle selections. The first of those selections in Uhtred for the Supreme Novices hurdle. He did not come from the PTP field but won on debut in April last year coming from a long way off the pace to fly home and win narrowly. It was an impressive turn of foot that he went on to display in the Listed "Future Champions" INH Flat Race at Navan in December 2019. He travelled well and put the race to bed impressively, displaying the same turn of foot again to beat a reasonable field. That race has a nice roll of honour with previous winners including: Envoi Allen, Rapid Escape, Samcro, Death Duty and Don Cossack. Although most Gigginstown horses come from the PTP scene and are future chasers, Uhtred seems to possess real pace and could be similar to Abacadabras in being a genuine 2 mile contender. He’s sired by Fame And Glory who I really like as well.
 
All over bob olinger for the ballymore also.. been backing it for the last 4 weeks. In my eyes it should be half the price of what you can get now of 33s. It looks to have a natural blend of speed and stamina. If ballyadam is 20/1 then this sound be 16/1
 
They should probably both be around the same price, although being trained by Gordon Elliott is worth a bit more in my eyes.

Trying to think of a festival winning novice hurdler for Henry. Had there been one?
 
JackieMoon33 said:
We seem to disagree massively on Uhtred :devilish: The below is from my diary on 1st April. Fame And Glory has sired progeny that have been suited to a range of distances so that would not put me off, especially given his limited numbers. If you watch the last run of Uhtred that does not scream 3 miler to me.
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I initially had Uhtred down as a 2 miler but at that stage I had done next to no research, instead the view formed on the visual aspect of his run. I like to back these up with breeding, opposition on the day plus other pieces etc....

On breeding, there is plenty of stamina on both the sire and dams side for me, enough that made me believe he will need further.

Also, the opposition on every occasion he has run has been ordinary at best, possibly Front View the best he come across and he didn't do much for the hurdle form at the festival, although this a small sample size, it's a start, about a horse I'm sure we'll learn plenty about over the course of the season.

The one Giggs horse I am looking at for the Supreme is Fire Attack.
 
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Faugheen_Machine said:
They should probably both be around the same price, although being trained by Gordon Elliott is worth a bit more in my eyes.

Trying to think of a festival winning novice hurdler for Henry. Had there been one?
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This is my one and only worry FM. Just wondering if he's had the ammunition also. Captain Guinness somewhat unlucky this season didn't help matters.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
They should probably both be around the same price, although being trained by Gordon Elliott is worth a bit more in my eyes.

Trying to think of a festival winning novice hurdler for Henry. Had there been one?
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Minella indo
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I initially had Uhtred down as a 2 miler but at that stage I had done next to no research, instead the view formed on the visual aspect of his run. I like to back these up with breeding, opposition on the day plus other pieces etc....

On breeding, there is plenty of stamina on both the sire and dams side for me, enough that made me believe he will need further.

Also, the opposition on every occasion he has run has been ordinary at best, possibly Front View the best he come across and he didn't do much for the hurdle form at the festival, although this a small sample size, it's a start, about a horse I'm sure we'll learn plenty about over the course of the season.

The one Giggs horse I am looking at for the Supreme is Fire Attack.
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We must read breeding and visuals completely differently as I’d have had the Supreme as the least likely of the novice races for Fire Attack. I agree he’s a lovely horse but I’d my instincts would say further than 2m.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
We must read breeding and visuals completely differently as I’d have had the Supreme as the least likely of the novice races for Fire Attack. I agree he’s a lovely horse but I’d my instincts would say further than 2m.
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A full brother to Western Ryder, that one wasn't bad at 2m (6th in a Supreme), only FA is under a better trainer (IMO).

I think Fire Attack would no doubt step up in trip at some point of his career, don't think it should be or will be in his novice hurdle season, IMO.
 
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