Arkle 2020

[Kevloaf]

Could be. One of the few races that the English have monopolized over the last 20 years or so.

4 out of the last 5 - Irish

Yorkhill avoided Altior for obvious reasons ...

 

[Lobos]

4 out of the last 5 - Irish

Yorkhill avoided Altior for obvious reasons ...

Thats cheating. The Festival has been going for a little longer than 5 years. Previous 24 years....20 English.

 

[Morley Street]

2 miles is Brewin’s trip IMO... think he represents value in this.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Disappointed to read Willie saying about stepping Melon up in trip; 2m round Cheltenham is ideal for him

 

[Lobos]

Disappointed to read Willie saying about stepping Melon up in trip; 2m round Cheltenham is ideal for him

Think he'll still end up in Arkle. As you say, it feels perfect for him.

 

[Kevloaf]

Thats cheating. The Festival has been going for a little longer than 5 years. Previous 24 years....20 English.

I'd say the last 5 years are more relevant than the 5 or 15 before that though.


If you've been around long enough you'll know I don't really care about stats like this, the same data doesn't prove anything either way.

 

[Kevloaf]

Disappointed to read Willie saying about stepping Melon up in trip; 2m round Cheltenham is ideal for him

I'm not, was in the minority suggesting he'd end up in the JLT earlier on this year... long way to go though still

 

[Quevega]

It amazes me why anyone is still surprised Melon keeps losing.
Still no grade one win.
But will more than likely run a good race at a price at the festival.
Not sure where though.
Hopefully in the JLT, so that bet you got me into, gets me a run for my money

 

[Kevloaf]

I thought I was on Melon at 40/1 each way for the JLT and I'm not.

I'm on a free bet win only at 20/1



Which makes it MUCH easier to not back him going forward.

Dodgepot.




Laurina Arkle / Melon JLT e/w double at 314/1 has some real money on actually.

Go on Melon, absolute certainty.

 

[Humble Pie]

I thought I was on Melon at 40/1 each way for the JLT and I'm not.

I'm on a free bet win only at 20/1



Which makes it MUCH easier to not back him going forward.

Dodgepot.




Laurina Arkle / Melon JLT e/w double at 314/1 has some real money on actually.

Go on Melon, absolute certainty.

Melon the horse I never want to back but invariably do and have ......with Billies and Unibet ....for the Arkle arghhh
What an arse HP
So then I eventually get it right and bet it for the JLT with 365 ( where 75% of my ante post bets are !) and it flatters to deceive ?
If indeed it does run there?
Biggest bollock I’ve dropped to date, think i’ll now partake/ imbibe in a glass /two of Mcguigans Sauvignon Blanc Reserve
Bargain @£7 Sainsbury’s

Poilly Fume my fav but twice the price and only marginally better IMO
Cheers all
Thirsty Thursday -)))

 

[jono]

I've been fairly openly against Melon as an antepost bet...

Melon is a funny one. Those 3 runner up spots at the festival are basically the only reason his stock is as high as he is. Outside of those runs which are by far his best - he's become somewhat of a liability. After 14 runs he only has 2 wins to his name - a Maiden Hurdle and a grade 2. There's enough based off his 3 Cheltenham runs to suggest whatever happens he could and may well figure wherever he runs. Maybe fences just might be the thing that makes him click and turn him into a horse who not even wins but runs as his short odds have suggested he should. I'd be so anti Melon for any antepost bet though. I said plenty last year over hurdles and the same applies for me going chasing. Don't get involved until much closer to the time as he will get turned over at least once over the season. For that reason I can see your angle with the Stayers Q. I remember Mullins suggesting it loosely as a bit of a wildcard before the festival last year. That said he was still way too keen at the back end of last season once again and gave no real optimism for me that he'd be effective over 3 miles.

In no rush to back Melon at all over a fence. He hasn't won since November 2017. He's had numerous poor runs since then with just a few (albeit high level) strong runs dotted inbetween. Theres obvious pros in his corner and he would arguably be dropping down a level from top grade 1 open hurdles to a level playing ground of Novice chasing but he just doesnt win anywhere near enough. Who knows...fencing may well be the catalyst to bring it all together but he's disappointed far too often for me not to think he'll do so again. And the extra 2 years over hurdles will always be a niggle for me. No doubt he will win his beginners Chase and will single figures but I'd still bank on him losing at some point leading up to Cheltenham. If he turns up as Mullins sole Arkle / JLT horse I'd have to back certainly in the former such is his record but I'm happy to do so with evidence to go on.

I've obviously back tracked (theme developing here...:highly_amused and backed him for the JLT yesterday...which is much sooner than I expected I would have!!

Certainly wasn't surprised he met with another defeat in a decent looking Beginners Chase last weekend. Par for the course really...
Importantly with a step up in trip and the JLT the potential new long term target, i'm guessing that his sights will now be set much lower in preparation and at 25/1 that was the key reason for backing. If he carried on Arkle bound then there's almost no option bar taking in the 2 Irish Arkle trials at Christmas and the Dublin Racing Festival and i'd be almost certain he would have met with defeat once again.
Hopefully they can find an easier Beginners Chase next up and then take in a fairly straightforward Grade 2 / 3 the over side of Christmas at odds on (much like the likes of Vautour (1/5) and Yorkhill (4/11) did before going to the JLT)

 

[Quevega]

Mullins has been gagging to try him at further for a couple of years now.
The 25-1 for JLT stood out to me.
but already had him at 20's.
Just no idea how he'll run in his next couple, which means he could still end up in about four or five races at the festival. And finish 2nd or 3rd wherever he does end up.

 

[Kevloaf]

Is Tornado Flyer not a wild price for this now at 33/1 with 365??
(and actually 50/1 for the JLT)?

Being aimed at the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown...

Mullins runners in the last 8 years for that race have been:

2018 - Voix Du Reve 3rd - F in JLT
2017 - Footpad 1st - 1st in Arkle
2016 - Min 1st - Injured (was going to run in the Arkle)
2015 - Douvan 1st - 1st in Arkle
2014 - Vautour 3rd - 1st in JLT
2013 - Champagne Fever 3rd - *** in Arkle
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere 1st - PU in Arkle
2011 - Blackstairmountain 1st - 5th in Arkle



I know he wasn't that impressive, but he still won on Chase debut.... keeps saying about the pace he has..... and as I keep saying, he's Willie's highest ever rated bumper horse.....

Must have some talent to get involved and that's a big price surely?

 

[JackieMoon33]

Is Tornado Flyer not a wild price for this now at 33/1 with 365??
(and actually 50/1 for the JLT)?

Being aimed at the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown...

Mullins runners in the last 8 years for that race have been:

2018 - Voix Du Reve 3rd - F in JLT
2017 - Footpad 1st - 1st in Arkle
2016 - Min 1st - Injured (was going to run in the Arkle)
2015 - Douvan 1st - 1st in Arkle
2014 - Vautour 3rd - 1st in JLT
2013 - Champagne Fever 3rd - *** in Arkle
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere 1st - PU in Arkle
2011 - Blackstairmountain 1st - 5th in Arkle



I know he wasn't that impressive, but he still won on Chase debut.... keeps saying about the pace he has..... and as I keep saying, he's Willie's highest ever rated bumper horse.....

Must have some talent to get involved and that's a big price surely?

I’m not sure why, even at the odds, I still only like him for the JLT.

 

[Hurricane fly]

Mullins suggested he wants to put him back down to 2m

I think he’s the best Mullins has, and his price going out made no sense whatsoever

 

[MadeinJapan]

It amazes me why anyone is still surprised Melon keeps losing.
Still no grade one win.
But will more than likely run a good race at a price at the festival.
Not sure where though.
Hopefully in the JLT, so that bet you got me into, gets me a run for my money

Spot on. He always seems to get beat by one & finds one too good at the highest level. He’s a bit like My Tent Or Yours in that vein always being the bridesmaid, although Trent won plenty of races outside the Festival. Same will happen again here with Melon IMO - he’s probably nailed for a place in JLT but something will come out and beat him..

 

[charlie]

Is Tornado Flyer not a wild price for this now at 33/1 with 365??
(and actually 50/1 for the JLT)?

Being aimed at the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown...

Mullins runners in the last 8 years for that race have been:

2018 - Voix Du Reve 3rd - F in JLT
2017 - Footpad 1st - 1st in Arkle
2016 - Min 1st - Injured (was going to run in the Arkle)
2015 - Douvan 1st - 1st in Arkle
2014 - Vautour 3rd - 1st in JLT
2013 - Champagne Fever 3rd - *** in Arkle
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere 1st - PU in Arkle
2011 - Blackstairmountain 1st - 5th in Arkle

I know he wasn't that impressive, but he still won on Chase debut.... keeps saying about the pace he has..... and as I keep saying, he's Willie's highest ever rated bumper horse.....

Must have some talent to get involved and that's a big price surely?

What an excellent post, you convinced me to part with cash. An unexposed winning Mullins chase debutante who's next stop is a grade 1 at Leopardstown in a race Willie aims good things at...... 33/1 & 50/1 with the added benefit of cash out - definition of a no brainer to me

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Nice enough performance from Brewin' and can only see him going for this race myself... especially as TD look more likely to benefit from the step up in trip.

 

[jono]

Have added Notebook - 50/1 for this before tomorrow.

Fairly decent race tomorrow where he re-opposes EdB along with Moon Over Germany and the well thought of Mount Pelier.
I'd be slightly worried about the ground for him which could allow EdB to reverse the form (when otherwise i'd be hard pressed to see a reason why). Think he's better on less testing ground.

The Craddockstown Novice Chase is clearly a race Henry de Bromhead likes for his 2 mile novice chasers. Identity Thief, Sizing John and going back further Sizing Europe all won the race before going onto the 2 Irish Arkle trials at Christmas / and the now labelled Dublin Racing Festival. (and IT was lined up all season for the Arkle until never recovering from the defat by Min at Christmas)

At this stage the Irish Trials might not take too much winning. Fakir Doudairies could well mop them up but if Notebook is able to win tomorrow, he'll almost certainly go onto those races and would deserve to be there before a likely Arkle run in March.

 

[Quevega]

Have added Notebook - 50/1 for this before tomorrow.

Fairly decent race tomorrow where he re-opposes EdB along with Moon Over Germany and the well thought of Mount Pelier.
I'd be slightly worried about the ground for him which could allow EdB to reverse the form (when otherwise i'd be hard pressed to see a reason why). Think he's better on less testing ground.

The Craddockstown Novice Chase is clearly a race Henry de Bromhead likes for his 2 mile novice chasers. Identity Thief, Sizing John and going back further Sizing Europe all won the race before going onto the 2 Irish Arkle trials at Christmas / and the now labelled Dublin Racing Festival. (and IT was lined up all season for the Arkle until never recovering from the defat by Min at Christmas)

At this stage the Irish Trials might not take too much winning. Fakir Doudairies could well mop them up but if Notebook is able to win tomorrow, he'll almost certainly go onto those races and would deserve to be there before a likely Arkle run in March.

that helped remind me to add this horse again, but each way this time.
think i might cash if it don't win tomorrow though.