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Weekend Racing

Not that you can actually back it as a double, the actual odds on her double are 62.75/1. So 40s isn't value.

She is more likely to win a KG based on her Kauto Star C&D form than if she beats the Charlie Hall field ... none of the Charlie Hall field will be considered for a KG!

She's good, but she's not going to win a King George ever, is she?!

Clan Des Obeaux, Cyrname, Altior ?

If they line up she's not even a good each way bet at 40/1 .... so win only, not value really....


Looks like that'll be unpopular though :highly_amused:
 
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The King George will likely be her main target for the whole season. Her Gold Cup as such she’ll be fully wound up for it. Her form in the winter months is impeccable. Jumping & traveling as strongly as she does is a massive advantage around a track like Kempton.

If Altior proves he stays 3m and wins the KG good on him & he’d deserve the plaudits, but there’s question marks there so the Charlie Hall & King George La Bague double is a cracking bet in my book at 40/1! I’m just gutted I couldn’t get more than €20 on.

If we’re all rightly talking up Santini & Topofthegames (prior to injury) Gold Cup chances why can’t she win the KG given the form of the Kauto Star. She’s good value at 16/1 as single even. Less question marks about her than the rest of the likely field for me.
 
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Kevloaf said:
Not that you can actually back it as a double, the actual odds on her double are 62.75/1. So 40s isn't value.

She is more likely to win a KG based on her Kauto Star C&D form than if she beats the Charlie Hall field ... none of the Charlie Hall field will be considered for a KG!

She's good, but she's not going to win a King George ever, is she?!

Clan Des Obeaux, Cyrname, Altior ?

If they line up she's not even a good each way bet at 40/1 .... so win only, not value really....


Looks like that'll be unpopular though :highly_amused:
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For me, I ain’t backing anything that hasn’t ran over 3 miles. So Altior, despite him being a favourite of mine,
I’m can’t back at this moment in the AP market
Cyrname is another one. Can’t back and not keen on his profile. For me, he’s another waiting patiently - wins top class grade 2 when conditions suit. Lay all day for me

Can’t see any of the Irish coming over. So that leaves LostInTranslation who I do like and initially shortlisted. It wasn’t until the day that I stopped ignore LBAR form, beating LIT, Santini and Topofthegame!!! After the RSA I said to myself that the 19/20 stayers division is going to be top class, and LBAR has already beaten all three of them - with just Delta Work missing from that list

I rewatched the Kauto Star and was so impressed with her jumping!

I think she suffers from Apples Jade syndrome,”the cycle”, so anything after Feb and you should back against her.
Obviously doesn’t like Cheltenham.

Can she win the KG, I certainly think she can. She’s going there so no questions there.... so happy to back her now at the price
 
Aye fair enough, respect your opinions.

I just know that if La Bague Au Roi wins the King George I'll know it's a terrible season and probably fall out of love with the game.



What a huge disappointment that'd be.


I think I've always under rated her, but really, La Bague Au Roi? Can you say it out loud with confidence?


:highly_amused: Gut will sway me all day here, I'm gonna be annoyed when she wins at the weekend aren't I (despite being on) :highly_amused:
 
'apples' jade syndrome'
'the cycle'
I'm adding both to 'the list' of guessed excuses.:highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused: Gut will sway me all day here, I'm gonna be annoyed when she wins at the weekend aren't I (despite being on) :highly_amused:
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We're weeks into this national hunt season, with very little racing done. No, I can not be confident. All I can do is go with on paper right now, and how I think things will pan out and then look at the price on offer and decide whether it's fair.

Earlier on in the week, 5/1 looked more than fair for the Charlie Hall, and 16/1 for the KG was too aswell.

No, I can not be confident. I haven't see her in person, I haven't ridden her. Like yourself, you take a look at what you have seen a translate that into an opinion.

It appears that you've taken her last two races, and come to the conclusion that she's burnt out. I thought that too initially, but went back through her form... which is similar to that of Apple Jade's where she's best up to January before going into her 'Cycle', and this may explain Le Bague average performance at Aintree back in April. Prior to this, she's 10 out of 10 between Oct - Dec, then she's 2-2 up to March, following this she's 2 out of 6! How likely this explains her performances during the back end of the season, well... not sure, only time will tell.

Take out Cheltenham, a track I doesn't she like, and take out her runs at Aintree and Punc towards the end of the season... her form reads 11111111111111

Taking the rest of the field... I'm struggling to find anything that I fancy to beat her

Elegant Escape - wants further than this, and had a very tough season, expecting that to have left a mark
Black Corton - Nichols factor, peaked at the start of last season. Not much to offer her
Aso - No more than a very good handicap horse
Ballyoptic - won a terrible race last time out. Lacking in class to win this
Definitely Red - Trainer form is sign high at the moment, but not all concerned about this one repeating last years win
Vinnidaction -
Top Ville Ben - Will set the pace, has great form around her and been running at the track - tracker has targeted this race. Think he'll place well

Out of all of them I'd have to side with Definitely Red to be the main danger but would be greatly disappointed if that beat a horse who I feel could run very very well in the KG

We both have opinions, for me I like to stick to mine and learn the hard way. If I'm wrong, then oh well... learn from it and move on.

At 5/1, I'm happy with that. If she wins... and wins well... then I'm happy with my bet for the KG. She could be a donkey this weekend... which means, bye bye to both bets but thats gambling for ya
 
At 5-1 she is a great bet for this saturday.
I said earlier in the week I'd have backed her except for the trainer letting me down more than once last season with declarations.
I'd be less enthusiastic about her chances of winning the king george simply due to the likely standard of opposition, but she's a bigger price accordingly.
Know idea what warren has said in the lead up to this, but I'd be wary of what he says after the race for sure.
 
I'm a big Le Bague fan and am on her big for both Charlie Hall and KG. A little apprehensive about the rain due to fall at Wetherby but then again her second choice Carlisle is going to get a deluge and she has never ran there. The £100000 CH pot must be on connections minds so I'm confident she either runs at Wetherby or not at all. To me she looks a proper Stayer in her races and with her allowance and top form from last season I can see her running away with this. As for the KG, yes it's going to be tougher but she loves the course, jumps quick and accurate, stays, goes on any ground, has a top pilot, gets a disgustingly advantageous allowance and is unbeatable thus far during Oct-Feb. Personally I don't think Altior will win his prep at Ascot and therefore will not turn up in the KG and that makes it wide open. She is never a 16/1 chance on that basis and to me is a cast iron Ew bet with a huge chance of winning.
 
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7 declared for Charlie Hall:

LBAR 5/2
Definitely Red 7/2
Elegant Escape 9/2
Ballyoptic 6/1
Aso 7/1
Top Ville Ben 8/1
Molly The Dolly 14/1
 
Western Ryder a decent price at Uttoxeter with Thomas Darby a NR, Too many questions over Summerville Boy imo
 
LBAR 5/2
Definitely Red 4/1
Aso 11/2
Elegant Escape 11/2
Ballyoptic 13/2
Top Ville Ben 8/1
Molly The Dolly 14/1

Aso taking a decent level of support but all the money seems to be for LBAR.
 
backed definitely red in that race, but only for sake of having a bet really.
In Breeders cup tomorrow, I like the price of WOW CAT in the distaff at 11pm.
4pts ew at 22-1.
will be on my eighth pint by then i reckon so hopefully it spurs me on.:very_drunk:

Was second last year and has been beaten by the 6/5 favourite once or twice but I'm taking a gamble that if it can get a good sit in behind the pace then if they go too quick, he could pick up the pieces. fingers crossed anyway.
 
quevega said:
backed definitely red in that race, but only for sake of having a bet really.
In Breeders cup tomorrow, I like the price of WOW CAT in the distaff at 11pm.
4pts ew at 22-1.
will be on my eighth pint by then i reckon so hopefully it spurs me on.:very_drunk:

Was second last year and has been beaten by the 6/5 favourite once or twice but I'm taking a gamble that if it can get a good sit in behind the pace then if they go too quick, he could pick up the pieces. fingers crossed anyway.
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Only 8 pints by 11pm Q? You can't be watching the rugby in the pub tomorrow morning! :very_drunk:
 
Delta Work/La Bague double is about it for me tomorrow 10/1
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Only 8 pints by 11pm Q? You can't be watching the rugby in the pub tomorrow morning! :very_drunk:
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Now that would be a long day :highly_amused:
I'll be watching the rugby in bed and hopefully celebrating later, although sheffield's not exactly a rugby city.
 
Snow falcon worth backing at 10-1 tomorrow 2pts.
 
quevega said:
Snow falcon worth backing at 10-1 tomorrow 2pts.
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He’s the one I was worried about upsetting the favs apple cart Q. Fitness edge usually goes well this time of the season & trainer has been in great form. Reckon Clan Des Obeaux will need the run to strip fit. He definitely did last year. Hoping Delta Work has too much class for Snow Falcon.
 
You'd say that Road To Respect is the stable choice.
 
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