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Cheltenham 2014 Arkle Trophy Chase
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skippymac6
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Champagne Fever out of the PJ Moriarty. Probably be given an entry in the Flyingbolt now or something and a return to 2 miles...
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Going to be a lot of people peeved with that decision. If Henerson changed his mind like that there would be a twitter revolt.
Maybe we shouldnt read too much into Annie Power move either - Champagne Fever was 50/1 on betfair for the Supreme with 7 days to go last year.
Maybe we shouldnt read too much into Annie Power move either - Champagne Fever was 50/1 on betfair for the Supreme with 7 days to go last year.
Statto
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Age: The Arkle tends to be a race for young upwardly mobile types, and established hurdlers looking to break into the top echelons of chasing have struggled at the sharp end. The last 24 Arkle winners were aged five to eight, with a notable number of fancied older horses turned over.
In 2002, Barton could only manage seventh at 9/2; a year later, Adamant Approach fell when a 7/1 shot; and, more recently, Captain Cee Bee was only eighth as the 5/2 favourite in 2010; and, last year, Overturn was turned over at 7/2, finishing no better than fourth.
It’s a young nag’s game, and Rock On Ruby (nine) will be bidding to become only the second horse aged older than eight to win the Arkle since Sir Ken way back in 1956.
Experience: Although Simonsig had just two chase starts to his name last term (and Champleve and Tiutchev likewise at the turn of the century), and Well Chief had just a single outing over the big’uns in 2004, the general level of experience for Arkle winners has been three (three winners) or four starts (eight winners) since 1997. The brilliant Moscow Flyer had already run in five steeplechases when he lined up for, and won, the 2002 Arkle.
Form: Since 1997, only one of the 57 horses to finish outside of the first two in their prior start has won. Contraband, a 7/1 shot and possibly the worst Arkle winner in living memory, was that horse. Indeed, Contraband’s previous third place was the ONLY placing outside of the first two that any Arkle winner since… well, as far back as Racing Post records go, which is at least 1988. The strong percentage play is to demand a 1-2 finish the last day.
UK or Irish? The Irish have saddled 58 runners since 1997 in the Arkle, with just three winning (5% strike rate). The British have saddled 13 winners from their 142 runners (9% strike rate) in the same time span. Looking only at those horses priced 12/1 or below, the figures come down to Ireland 3-23 (13%) and UK 13-76 (17.1%). Thus, the UK trained runners have enjoyed an edge, but perhaps not as marked as first meets the eye.
Age: The Arkle tends to be a race for young upwardly mobile types, and established hurdlers looking to break into the top echelons of chasing have struggled at the sharp end. The last 24 Arkle winners were aged five to eight, with a notable number of fancied older horses turned over.
In 2002, Barton could only manage seventh at 9/2; a year later, Adamant Approach fell when a 7/1 shot; and, more recently, Captain Cee Bee was only eighth as the 5/2 favourite in 2010; and, last year, Overturn was turned over at 7/2, finishing no better than fourth.
It’s a young nag’s game, and Rock On Ruby (nine) will be bidding to become only the second horse aged older than eight to win the Arkle since Sir Ken way back in 1956.
Experience: Although Simonsig had just two chase starts to his name last term (and Champleve and Tiutchev likewise at the turn of the century), and Well Chief had just a single outing over the big’uns in 2004, the general level of experience for Arkle winners has been three (three winners) or four starts (eight winners) since 1997. The brilliant Moscow Flyer had already run in five steeplechases when he lined up for, and won, the 2002 Arkle.
Form: Since 1997, only one of the 57 horses to finish outside of the first two in their prior start has won. Contraband, a 7/1 shot and possibly the worst Arkle winner in living memory, was that horse. Indeed, Contraband’s previous third place was the ONLY placing outside of the first two that any Arkle winner since… well, as far back as Racing Post records go, which is at least 1988. The strong percentage play is to demand a 1-2 finish the last day.
UK or Irish? The Irish have saddled 58 runners since 1997 in the Arkle, with just three winning (5% strike rate). The British have saddled 13 winners from their 142 runners (9% strike rate) in the same time span. Looking only at those horses priced 12/1 or below, the figures come down to Ireland 3-23 (13%) and UK 13-76 (17.1%). Thus, the UK trained runners have enjoyed an edge, but perhaps not as marked as first meets the eye.
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Champagne Fever could have a prep run ahead of the Cheltenham Festival at Navan next weekend after missing the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday.
Trainer Willie Mullins took the ante-post favourite for the Racing Post Arkle Trophy out of the Leopardstown Grade One at the final declaration stage, saying that he had been "not entirely happy" with last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner.
However, Mullins has not ruled out getting a race into him before next month's big meeting.
"He's fine. There's a race for him next Sunday but we'll see how he is during the week," he told At The Races.
"I'd have no problems going straight to Cheltenham, though."
Mullins said he was reluctant to identify a specific race at the Festival as a target, but did admit: "He looks Arkle material."
He is Sky Bet's 7/2 favourite for that contes
Woohoo!
Trainer Willie Mullins took the ante-post favourite for the Racing Post Arkle Trophy out of the Leopardstown Grade One at the final declaration stage, saying that he had been "not entirely happy" with last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner.
However, Mullins has not ruled out getting a race into him before next month's big meeting.
"He's fine. There's a race for him next Sunday but we'll see how he is during the week," he told At The Races.
"I'd have no problems going straight to Cheltenham, though."
Mullins said he was reluctant to identify a specific race at the Festival as a target, but did admit: "He looks Arkle material."
He is Sky Bet's 7/2 favourite for that contes
Woohoo!
mayo
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^ I cant believe I backed Champagne Fever at 4/1 two months ago and he is the same price now. I think he will run here now but less convinced than I was. Will be interesting to see what comes out of the preview circuit on this race.
If & when Champagne Fever is confirmed i think your 4's will still be bigger than the SP, I reckon the irish will be lumping on him.
Just had a look and Cf is only 4's with b365 and 3's with ladbrokes, all the rest are 10/3 & 7/2.
Just had a look and Cf is only 4's with b365 and 3's with ladbrokes, all the rest are 10/3 & 7/2.
Has anyone got news of Caid du Berlais ?
Champagne Fever will tighten up if he is confirmed but you would like to see a clear round of jumping before getting stuck into him.
Rock on Ruby a bit old to be chasing but he was best of these over hurdles and most likely winner imo.
mayo
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“A word of caution for anyone considering backing Balder Succes for the Arkle as it is very unlikely he will go there.
“Although we will leave him in and I’m not definitely saying he won't run, the owners would rather wait for Aintree and then Punchestown.
“He put in a fantastic round of jumping to win the Kingmaker, his first success at Graded level.”
King could still be represented in the Arkle with last month's Racing Post Lightning Novices' Chase winner Valdez, who is rated a 10-1 chance in a market headed by 7-2 favourite Champagne Fever.
“Although we will leave him in and I’m not definitely saying he won't run, the owners would rather wait for Aintree and then Punchestown.
“He put in a fantastic round of jumping to win the Kingmaker, his first success at Graded level.”
King could still be represented in the Arkle with last month's Racing Post Lightning Novices' Chase winner Valdez, who is rated a 10-1 chance in a market headed by 7-2 favourite Champagne Fever.
AP likes Rock on Ruby
We saw some Racing Post Arkle clues last week with Dodging Bullets just getting touched off at Newbury on Saturday and Rock On Ruby winning at Doncaster on Thursday. If I was a punter I would much rather be backing Rock On Ruby than Dodging Bullets. I thought they went a good gallop at Doncaster and I was impressed with Rock On Ruby, but I am not sure if Dodging Bullets is good enough to be honest. Champagne Fever hasn’t come out of his box since being beat at Christmas but is shortening in the betting which tells you all you need to know! If I had the choice though I’d have Rock On Ruby over Dodging Bullets all day long.
We saw some Racing Post Arkle clues last week with Dodging Bullets just getting touched off at Newbury on Saturday and Rock On Ruby winning at Doncaster on Thursday. If I was a punter I would much rather be backing Rock On Ruby than Dodging Bullets. I thought they went a good gallop at Doncaster and I was impressed with Rock On Ruby, but I am not sure if Dodging Bullets is good enough to be honest. Champagne Fever hasn’t come out of his box since being beat at Christmas but is shortening in the betting which tells you all you need to know! If I had the choice though I’d have Rock On Ruby over Dodging Bullets all day long.
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Dodging Bullets
He has a leading chance in the Arkle. He won three from three in the Autumn, I then gave him a little break and wanted to get a run into him, and there's little for a novice chaser like him to run in at this time of year so we went for the Game Spirit. He gave weight to Module and got beat a neck. He travelled well, jumped well and looked like winning, but had a blow halfway up the run-in and then stayed on again. There's plenty of improvement to come and the faster they go the better it will suit him. He jumps nicely and stays on strongly. Considering he had a hard race at the weekend I'm very pleased with the way he looks and he's really forward in his coat. He'll have a quiet couple of weeks before we tune him up and he's one of the best two-mile novice chasers around. He's a cracking horse. He's genuine, tough and would run himself into the ground. He'd give you everything. He ran two terrible races after Christmas last season andI couldn't put my finger on what was wrong. We tweaked his breathing and I don't think he was right for whatever reason.
He has a leading chance in the Arkle. He won three from three in the Autumn, I then gave him a little break and wanted to get a run into him, and there's little for a novice chaser like him to run in at this time of year so we went for the Game Spirit. He gave weight to Module and got beat a neck. He travelled well, jumped well and looked like winning, but had a blow halfway up the run-in and then stayed on again. There's plenty of improvement to come and the faster they go the better it will suit him. He jumps nicely and stays on strongly. Considering he had a hard race at the weekend I'm very pleased with the way he looks and he's really forward in his coat. He'll have a quiet couple of weeks before we tune him up and he's one of the best two-mile novice chasers around. He's a cracking horse. He's genuine, tough and would run himself into the ground. He'd give you everything. He ran two terrible races after Christmas last season andI couldn't put my finger on what was wrong. We tweaked his breathing and I don't think he was right for whatever reason.
A longer read but some interesting observations about the trial races or lack of.
http://thenhanalysisroom.blogspot...e-chase-2014-towards-raceday.html
http://thenhanalysisroom.blogspot...e-chase-2014-towards-raceday.html
skippymac6
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No Champagne Fever in this Sunday's Flyingbolt chase. So he goes to the festival after only two starts and one very bad one? Also, that Mallowney looks decent if he lines up this Sunday. He was travelling well when he came down two out in the Irish Arkle.
It was getting very close to Cheltenham so maybe not a bad thing.
People comparing his prep to Simonsigs is something I cant be having though. Simonsig won his prep by 35l giving Hinterland 11lbs. Champagne finished third 1.5 lengths behind Defy Logic and 11 l behind Trifolium. Madness that he is a shorter price than the Gigginstown horse.
People comparing his prep to Simonsigs is something I cant be having though. Simonsig won his prep by 35l giving Hinterland 11lbs. Champagne finished third 1.5 lengths behind Defy Logic and 11 l behind Trifolium. Madness that he is a shorter price than the Gigginstown horse.
skippymac6
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Yeah he only came into himself 10 days before Cheltenham but he had a run in the Deloitte last year too. Like Morning Assembly, as a backer of both I would like to see them run post Christmas before the festival. I know it works for some horses like Bobs Worth, Quevaga etc but in the main horses like Jezki, Grand Crus, Dynaste etc have (I think anyway) been let down in recent years by a lack of a prep run.
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The second race on day 1 is the Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase, run over 2M for novice chasers. It has been won by some top class chasers since 2000 including 4 subsequent Champion Chase winners – Moscow Flyer, Azertyioup, Voy Por Ustedes & Voy Por Ustedes. Irish trainers appear to hold a strong hand in the race this year while the record of Paul Nicholls has been surprisingly poor in the Arkle in recent years.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-4-20
6yo: 1-3-29
7yo: 6-5-50
8yo: 1-6-24
9yo+: 0-0-5
5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this.
The last 4 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.
Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-9-52
French Bred: 3-4-33
British Bred: 2-3-27
German Bred: 1-2-10
Other: 0-0-6
Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
3 of 4 winners bred in France or Germany were aged 5 or 6
All 6 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all chase runs
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races
8 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (2 exceptions had won grade 1 hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune and other was having first course start)
Other Races
Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 835P511 (2-1-7)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: U12626 (1-2-6)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): F172924 (1-2-7)
Winter Gala Novices' Chase winner (Rock On Ruby): 124 (1-1-3)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 012 (1-1-3)
Noel Novice Chase winner (Fox Appeal): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 1P (1-0-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner: P1 (1-0-2)
Halloween Trophy winner (Vukovar): 26352 (0-3-5)
Irish Arkle winner (Trifolium): 206403 (0-2-6)
Bet Victor Robert Mottram Memorial Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 2 (0-1-1)
Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase winner (): 2 (0-1-1)
Follow @AtTheRaces on Twitter Novices' Chase winner (Brick Red): U2 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 436 (0-1-3)
Craddockstown winner (Felix Younger): 013 (1-1-3)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Valdez): 5350 (0-1-4)
November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): FF26F54 (0-1-7)
Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 4 (0-0-1)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 4P (0-0-2)
Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novices' Chase winner (Dark Lover): U3 (0-0-2)
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 22
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice chase, finishing 12
2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase at Leopardstown (Irish Arkle or Racing Post Novice Chase)
Last 5 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous year’s Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, Supreme, Triumph & World Hurdle)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in graded hurdle at previous Aintree Festival (2 Mersey, 1 Top, 1 Anniversary & 1 Aintree)
Trainers
Alan King (2-0-5) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win last 2 renewals and half his runners since 2004 have made the frame.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-14) last trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 14 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places.
Mouse Morris (0-1-2), Nicky Richard (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-4) have all saddled a placed finishers in this since 2004.
Irish trained runners (2-4-34) have an average record in the race, producing 2 winners from approximately 26.6% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 2 of the past 5 winners.
This has not been a happy race for the biggest Irish trainer, Willie Mullins (0-0-7). He has never won it and in past 10 years all 7 of his runners finished out of the frame.
Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals should be focused on, but it has not been a great race for the favourite.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won last 2, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 6.74.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7
- Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
- Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
- Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree Festival 2013
- Trained by Alan King or Nicky Henderson
- Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...y-trends-2014-1391124771#sthash.JVn7104T.dpuf
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 2-4-20
6yo: 1-3-29
7yo: 6-5-50
8yo: 1-6-24
9yo+: 0-0-5
5 year olds had a very strong record before 2008 as up to then they received a healthy weight allowance (5lbs in 2007) but since that has been scrapped there have been very few 5yos running in this.
The last 4 winners aged 5 or 6 were French or German bred.
In past 20 years only 2 horses aged over 7 have won this, both were Irish bred 8yos who had won a grade 1 two mile hurdle.
Gender
Mares (0-1-4) have gained 1 place from their 4 runners however the 3 unplaced finishers were all priced 14/1 or bigger whereas the one female to make the frame was Kruguyrova, who was sent off 9/1 fourth favourite.
Breeding
Irish Bred: 4-9-52
French Bred: 3-4-33
British Bred: 2-3-27
German Bred: 1-2-10
Other: 0-0-6
Not a whole lot in it on the breeding side.
3 of 4 winners bred in France or Germany were aged 5 or 6
All 6 winners bred in Ireland or Britain were aged 7 or 8
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 153+ in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted their best RPR over fences on their last start
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 on all chase runs
8 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 5 chases (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 1 or 2 previous chase runs)
7 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase (2 exceptions had yet to run in a graded chase and other had finished runner-up 3 times in grade 1 chases)
10 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 13 hurdles races
8 of 10 winners contested a novice hurdle the previous season (2 exceptions had won grade 1 hurdles)
9 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
9 of 10 winners were officially rated 140+ over hurdles
6 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (3 exceptions had run here once, finishing 2nd in Triumph, 3rd Supreme & 4th in Neptune and other was having first course start)
Other Races
Wayward Lad Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): 835P511 (2-1-7)
Kingmaker Novice Chase winner: U12626 (1-2-6)
Henry VIII Novice Chase winner (Hinterland): F172924 (1-2-7)
Winter Gala Novices' Chase winner (Rock On Ruby): 124 (1-1-3)
Buck House Novice Chase winner (Art Of Logistics): 012 (1-1-3)
Noel Novice Chase winner (Fox Appeal): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 1 (1-0-1)
Punchestown For Events Beginners Chase winner (Felix Younger): 1P (1-0-2)
Pendil Novice Chase winner: P1 (1-0-2)
Halloween Trophy winner (Vukovar): 26352 (0-3-5)
Irish Arkle winner (Trifolium): 206403 (0-2-6)
Bet Victor Robert Mottram Memorial Novice Chase winner (Balder Succes): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 2 (0-1-1)
Scottish Future Champions Novices' Chase winner (): 2 (0-1-1)
Follow @AtTheRaces on Twitter Novices' Chase winner (Brick Red): U2 (0-1-2)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Chase winner (Felix Younger): 436 (0-1-3)
Craddockstown winner (Felix Younger): 013 (1-1-3)
Lightning Novice Chase winner (Valdez): 5350 (0-1-4)
November Novice Chase winner (Dodging Bullets): FF26F54 (0-1-7)
Previous season's Supreme Novice Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 4 (0-0-1)
Drinmore Novice Chase winner (Don Cossack): 4P (0-0-2)
Royal Gloucestershire Hussars Novices' Chase winner (Dark Lover): U3 (0-0-2)
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in November Novice Chase, finishing 22
2 of 8 British-trained winners ran in Henry VIII Novice chase, finishing 12
2 of 2 Nicky Henderson-trained winners ran in Wayward Lad Novice chase, finishing 11
2 of 2 Irish-trained winners finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase at Leopardstown (Irish Arkle or Racing Post Novice Chase)
Last 5 Irish-trained winners had finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
6 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at previous year’s Cheltenham Festival (3 Neptune, Supreme, Triumph & World Hurdle)
5 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in graded hurdle at previous Aintree Festival (2 Mersey, 1 Top, 1 Anniversary & 1 Aintree)
Trainers
Alan King (2-0-5) has trained backed to back winners in 2006 & 2007.
Nicky Henderson (2-2-8) trained Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig to win last 2 renewals and half his runners since 2004 have made the frame.
Paul Nicholls (0-2-14) last trained the winner in 2003 but since then his 14 runners have produced no winners and just 2 places.
Mouse Morris (0-1-2), Nicky Richard (0-1-2) & Noel Meade (0-1-4) have all saddled a placed finishers in this since 2004.
Irish trained runners (2-4-34) have an average record in the race, producing 2 winners from approximately 26.6% of the total runners, though they been responsible for 2 of the past 5 winners.
This has not been a happy race for the biggest Irish trainer, Willie Mullins (0-0-7). He has never won it and in past 10 years all 7 of his runners finished out of the frame.
Price
10 of 10 winners have come from the first 5 in the betting
All 10 winners went off at single figure odds, so clearly market principals should be focused on, but it has not been a great race for the favourite.
Favourites (2-2-10) have won last 2, though over past 10 years show a level stakes loss of 6.74.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- French bred aged 5 or 6, or Irish/British bred aged 7
- Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
- Never finished out of the first 2 over fences
- Posted an RPR of 153+ on last 2 starts
- Had won a grade 1 or 2 chase
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle
- Run in 4 to 13 hurdles & officially rated 140+ over hurdles
- Course winner or placed in a hurdle at the Festival (or having first start here)
- Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle at 2013 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in a novice h’dl)
- Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 novice hurdle at Aintree Festival 2013
- Trained by Alan King or Nicky Henderson
- Respect Irish runners that finished in first 2 in Irish Arkle and/or Racing Post Novice Chase
- From the first 5 in the betting (no bigger than 9/1)
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-...y-trends-2014-1391124771#sthash.JVn7104T.dpuf