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Epsom Derby 2019

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Hugh Taylor

With no Flat racing on Sunday and two mundane National Hunt cards, I’m going to dip into the ante-post market, as DUBAI WARRIOR is my long-range Derby suggestion.

He impressed me as much as any 2yo maiden or novice winner last season, and the fact that it came in a class 5 novice event at Chelmsford on a Thursday night in November shouldn’t detract from his promise. Jack Hobbs, Persuasive, Enable and Without Parole all made winning debuts for John Gosden in modest all-weather events in November or December and all went on to win at Group 1 level.
Dubai Warrior produced an impressive time figure and sectionals combination when winning at Chelmsford, and the level to which he ran on that first start strongly suggests he will be making his mark at Group level.

He should stay middle distances as a 3yo; the very best performers of his sire Dansili have been 1m4f horses and he’s out of a Galileo mare who won over 1m1f-1m4f.

There are a couple of question marks; the first is that he’s just one of a bunch of potential Derby candidates in his stable, including top-class 2yo Too Darn Hot, and the second is that his smart full brother Mootasadir so far has only produced his form on the all-weather (albeit has raced only twice on turf), and Gosden has already stated that he’d be concerned about soft ground for Dubai Warrior.
However, I’m fairly confident he’s going to be a high-class colt this year, and at odds of 25-1 and 20-1 I think he’s worth chancing even at this very early stage.


25/1 (Now best price 20/1)
 
Wouldn't be touching Too Darn Hot for the Derby Kev. Didn't look to be covering much ground to me and may struggle in a G1 12f race
 
Just had a go on Dubai Warrior at 16/1, i know i missed the 25s but still a decent price, especially if it wins something like the Chester Vase or Dante
 
Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

Was not on my radar.

Too short now.




Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?
 
Kevloaf said:
Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

Was not on my radar.

Too short now.




Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?
Click to expand...

hovered over 50-1 with pp, but after having magna grecia at 66-1 to do the guineas derby double then realising he'd not entered it I was dubious that 365 had not priced it up (assumed it was also not entered) so didn't back it.

also seriously looked for a price on 365 before medaayih won yesterday and also not priced up/entered.

frustrating that they both won so well (did back them yesterday though).
Ended up backing Medaayih after it won for oaks with hills 8.48-1.
left dragonet alone.
 
Kevloaf said:
Did anyone have the impressive O'Brien winner today?

Was not on my radar.

Too short now.




Any of the Grand National pedigree lads got an angle in to this?
Click to expand...

If you mean Sir Dragonet , Yep!, had him in my Lucky 15 @13-2.
 
Too Darn Flop
 
Kevloaf said:
Too Darn Flop
Click to expand...

Think they’ve made a mistake reverting back in trip.
I’m convinced he was beat for lack of sharpness rather than lack of stamina, countless setbacks all Winter and a rushed prep for one of the hottest Dante’s in memory, beaten by a top class horse and front pair pulled a mile clear of the rest who, incidently, include a Breeders Cup mile winner.
Are connections saying Line of Duty didn’t stay ?

Every chance he takes in the Eclipse after Ascot then steps back up to 12f
 
Istabraq said:
Think they’ve made a mistake reverting back in trip.
I’m convinced he was beat for lack of sharpness rather than lack of stamina, countless setbacks all Winter and a rushed prep for one of the hottest Dante’s in memory, beaten by a top class horse and front pair pulled a mile clear of the rest who, incidently, include a Breeders Cup mile winner.
Are connections saying Line of Duty didn’t stay ?

Every chance he takes in the Eclipse after Ascot then steps back up to 12f
Click to expand...

There's no doubt in my mind that too darn hot was the best horse in the race but he lacked for sharpness. Run the race again next month and TDH would win comfortably imo.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
There's no doubt in my mind that too darn hot was the best horse in the race but he lacked for sharpness. Run the race again next month and TDH would win comfortably imo.
Click to expand...

I don't imagine the bookies will compensate you with that view unfortunately.
 
I've backed Anthony Van Dyke for the Derby. 8/1 (few days back)

I'm anticipating Donnacha gets put on the impressive Chester winner Sir Dragonet and Ryan will be on.

Not a sexy one but just really solid.



Also added Madhmoon 25/1 before the guineas
 
Kevloaf said:
I've backed Anthony Van Dyke for the Derby. 8/1 (few days back)

I'm anticipating Donnacha gets put on the impressive Chester winner Sir Dragonet and Ryan will be on.

Not a sexy one but just really solid.



Also added Madhmoon 25/1 before the guineas
Click to expand...

Would Moore not choose Broome over him? I’m convinced Broome is their long term main derby horse but Sir Dragonet has pleasantly surprised them.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Would Moore not choose Broome over him? I’m convinced Broome is their long term main derby horse but Sir Dragonet has pleasantly surprised them.
Click to expand...

Moore doesn't choose anything but yes, he may get put on Broome.


I think AVD is better than him though, so I went for that (at the prices at the time)
 
Kevloaf said:
Moore doesn't choose anything but yes, he may get put on Broome.


I think AVD is better than him though, so I went for that (at the prices at the time)
Click to expand...

He doesn’t get the first pick for the big races? That surprises me. I always assumed he is asked who he would ride of the O’Brien battalion and then after he has his choice, Aiden gives his son the next best spot.

Anyway, I’m on Broome and also Bangkok (the latter at some huge prices). I’ll be there on Oaks day as usual (fourth year running for me) and am very keen on Maqsad but have also had to back the Gosden favourite in account of her beating Maqsad at Yarmouth last season. I do think Maqsad is an improved horse though and possibly a bit special.
 
I'm anticipating Donnacha gets put on the impressive Chester winner Sir Dragonet and Ryan will be on.

Not a sexy one but just really solid.


I'll be Laying Sir Dragonet if dry on the day, I'll take two things out of his Chester Run any decent draw (Essential epsom) would be lost if taken off his feet once more as at Chester he would be giving the entire field a start and would have to do a Dancing Brave(almost got there)
The other thing I take is his knee action, looked like he loved the juice in the ground at Chester, ok, not all pronounced actions need it soft but I see enough to want to take it on if it shortens on good ground.
 
It would be some performance for Sir Dragonet to win on Good to Firm ground at Epsom, with his rounded action, but he could just be a very special horse. If that is the case then 20/1 for the Arc could look enormous by teatime next Saturday.
 
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