Aintree - Ladies Day (Friday)
Aintree - Ladies Day (Friday)
***Beat me to it Bobby..... merged the threads***
Will be a fairly low key day for me but...I've got an hour spare now so here are a few thoughts as I look through the card...
1.45
I've had a very lazy 1 pt e/w each way bet on Brio Conti at 6/1 (6 places). The case is pretty obvious and he's not really value considering he's up another 2 lbs but I liked him for this meeting prior to his run in the Coral Cup so I can't let him run un-backed. There are loads I like as well but I will just keep it to the one in this race.
2.20
The well highlighted case in these forums for the 'value' angle on Itchy Feet was rewarded at Cheltenham. As he's now 3/1 fav initially I want to be against him, especially as the ground is now 'soft' - however, the Supreme was his best piece of form, so he's probably not as ground dependant as I'd thought. Aramon is 2nd fav and all the positives for him that you'd think would bring out improvement, like the flatter track and ground (if it's back to good to soft) would also benefit the fav... so I don't really see why he'd reverse the form. Problem being that is the way the bookies see it. I'm not keen on Precious Cargo as I can't see the value of the form yet, Southfield Stone would only interest me on 'good' and same for Felix Desjy. I wasn't impressed enough with Winston C's handicap win last time to think he can make the jump up to this level and Sofia's Rock has too much to find without her being a wild price.
At the prices of 10/1 I do like Rouge Vif - who on Boxing Day was ahead of Thomas Darby, who was 0.5L ahead of the current fav for this race in the Supreme. I'm also making the assumption that he's a bigger price than he should be as he's in the 'second colours' and therefore, I'll have 1 pt e/w at 11/1 (11.98/1 WH)
2.50
I've listened to a couple of podcasts and everyone seems to be all over Lostintranslation as a future Gold Cup contender and an each way steal in this race. Now it's only 2 places I don't think that's a sensible way to go, especially as you'd make a small loss on the place anyway! I think people are going over the top regarding how much improvement the step up will bring. It's not that I can't see him winning, as it's easy enough to pick a piece of form that entitles this horse to be matched to Topofthegame (on a line through Defi Du Seuil at least and La Bague Au Roi) and that does stop me getting too bullish about the RSA winners chances. Ultimately, I think Topofthegame beat Lostintranslation in any race they ever run in together if they stand up, but at 5/6 it's hardly a bold shout. None of the others interest me as an each way bet because the top 2 aren't easy to kick out of the two. The value play would probably be the Tizzard horse but I'm going against what is perceived as the value play in this instance. 3 pts win Topofthegame 5/6
3.25
I'm sat firmly in the camp that Waiting Paitently isn't as good as I thought. The second to Cyrname isn't worth as much as the number suggests. He was 3L ahead of Politlogue who re-opposes but Politilogue wouldn't have been fully wound up this day and he's 2-2 around Aintree (or would be bar the fall! haha) Only 6 runners so as much as I like God's Own (ground against) and Top Notch (beaten way too far at Chelt for me to consider here) I'll be backing Min 2 pts win 7/2. He under performed at Cheltenham - that's definitely a concern. He was beaten by Politilogue in this race last year - definitely a concern. However, he's 3rd fav and I'm stone co0ld certain he's the best horse in the race. 7/2 is too big for me to not back in this field. If he was a 6/4 shot, then the concerns are reason not to back him, but I just can't have at all the WP or Poli are better horses. They may have things slightly more in their favour, but the price compensates that for me. Back to running prominitely, should bring out his best and I am not worried about him getting the trip. On balance of his form soft ground will help him just as much as the favourite too!
Also 1 pt 7/1 DOUBLE - Topofthegame,Min
4.05
Way too many to discuss all, like the thought of Activial over the shorter trip. Know Faugheen_Machine is on as well and he's a judge at this meeting. 1 pt e/w.
I will add another, would have been Peregrine Run but he was 20s+ when I last looked and got smashed into about 10s.... now it's looking like soft ground he's back on the drift so not sure what to do. 14s now, maybe I'll press at 16/1.
Janicka isn't a bad bet for the places but always finds one too good and I wouldn't back a horse like that as fav in a race with a million runners like this!
4.40
Feel obliged to take on Champ and Emiton. The former, may not stay and fair enough if he does but he's pulled too hard to back over this trip for the first time at sub 3/1 prices for me. Emitom I didn't like the way he won last time, should have done it easier. He's unbeaten so it's not easy to pick at him really and skipped Cheltenham to come here, but if I was going to back one of the front two, I'd side with Champ still so I'll move on. 3rd fav, I love... Dallas Des Pictons, he's clearly better than a handicapper BUT the market has not missed that. He's almost joint fav. I can happily let him win at that price too. Lisnager Oscar tempts at 7/1 each way but not enough. I looked at Kingsplace 50/1 and Champagne Well at 40/1 who have placed form behind Dickie Diver and Downtown Getaway but it's hard to see them winning. I'm going to have a small 0.5 pt e/w bet on Trevelyns Corn 16/1 (4 places). This isn't a strong selection, he's a horse on the radar because he went for a fortune after his PtP and he's by Oscar out of a Presenting Mare. He should be a cracking horse in time and in a race I'm struggling to get too jiggy, I'll play him for interest.
5.15 - nearly done
Easy enough, was a big fan of Master Debonair pre Cheltenham. 1 pt e/w 9/1 (4 places) looks too big to me. Case was made in the bumper threads for Chelt so let's hope he can show the promise a few of us thought he had!
