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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

archie said:
It's not a stamina issue for Aramon, more that they think he'll settle better behind a fast pace.
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He don't look like he has any trouble settling IMO.
His issue IMO is the hill finish and opponents with better stamina than him.

And he was clearly way down the original list of mullins hopes for the festival.
Not to say he can't be competitive though.

I'd run them both in the supreme as neither look like superstars and whichever way the pace pans out in the supreme they have different types to go for it with.
 
I'm down to Al Dancer, Elixir de Nutz, Aramon, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet.

Please talk me out of 4 of these....
 
Coneygme said:
I'm down to Al Dancer, Elixir de Nutz, Aramon, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet.

Please talk me out of 4 of these....
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Too Short - Al Dancer
Too Short to back compared to others - Elixir De Nutz
Mullins has failed to win with better horses than this - Aramon
Good e/w bet - Thomas Darby
Winner - Itchy Feet
 
I wonder if they will be tempted to run Thomas Darby in the County he has a really nice mark for that?
 
billymag said:
I wonder if they will be tempted to run Thomas Darby in the County he has a really nice mark for that?
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they should do.
If they think it can win this, then it ought to go close in the county.
 
billymag said:
I wonder if they will be tempted to run Thomas Darby in the County he has a really nice mark for that?
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quevega said:
they should do.
If they think it can win this, then it ought to go close in the county.
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Only 16/1 to find out NRNB in the County.

Olly has been quite clear he is going here though.....

No reason to doubt him (yet)
 
Actually think Elixr De Nutz is quite big in the market, considering what he's achieved so far compared to others
 
My main thing about Itchy Feet is he's only ran on good ground. With the rain forecasted plus the watering of the course the ground will be slower than anything he's raced on before.

Will throw a free bet on him come the day (worked for Summerville Boy last year:devilish:) but nothing more than that
 
luisgarciaisgod said:
My main thing about Itchy Feet is he's only ran on good ground. With the rain forecasted plus the watering of the course the ground will be slower than anything he's raced on before.

Will throw a free bet on him come the day (worked for Summerville Boy last year:devilish:) but nothing more than that
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Looking at his breeding I wouldn't be too concerned about a bit of cut
 
Coneygme said:
Looking at his breeding I wouldn't be too concerned about a bit of cut
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I'm not so sure; it's difficult to get a guage from his breeding. His trainer said this after his 2nd win: He wouldn't want the ground too soft and will probably have a winter break
I like him for this race but would definitely be concerned if it is nearer to soft than good
 
Do people actually think Itchy Feet will win? Or is it just a preview night horse? His trainer doesn’t even prefer him
 
bobbyvalentino said:
Do people actually think Itchy Feet will win? Or is it just a preview night horse? His trainer doesn’t even prefer him
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Is that a serious question? I backed him at 33/1 last week on the basis his price was far too big on what he had achieved. He beat Grand Sancy off levels who is as short as 8/1 for this. He ran a blinder at Cheltenham behind Elixir De Nutz losing by a length giving away 5lb. Coincidentally, Summerville Boy was second in this race last year and obviously went on to win the Supreme. Itchy Feet has shortened now into around 25's and I wouldn't be surprised to see more money come and him go off around 14's or so.

It's a little bit frustrating when people put forward their case, then people come on here without reading through what's been said and deduce/infer support must have been based on comments made a at a preview night. I haven't heard anyone say anything about him (most previews take place this week).
 
charlie said:
Is that a serious question? I backed him at 33/1 last week on the basis his price was far too big on what he had achieved. He beat Grand Sancy off levels who is as short as 8/1 for this. He ran a blinder at Cheltenham behind Elixir De Nutz losing by a length giving away 5lb. Coincidentally, Summerville Boy was second in this race last year and obviously went on to win the Supreme. Itchy Feet has shortened now into around 25's and I wouldn't be surprised to see more money come and him go off around 14's or so.

It's a little bit frustrating when people put forward their case, then people come on here without reading through what's been said and deduce/infer support must have been based on comments made a at a preview night. I haven't heard anyone say anything about him (most previews take place this week).
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I’m trying to gauge whether people are putting him up as each way value, and I agree the price is too big, or they think he’s genuine contender.

Not deducing where or how you’ve arrived at the opinion. I know a lot of podcasts have been saying he’s got an each way squeak for much the same arguments you’ve laid out there. Incidentally I backed him for a fair chunk around Christmas when Elixir de Nutz went on to prove the form had some substance, and now the contenders have been clearer I’ve got the option of reducing that outlay or holding. To be honest I’d have wanted to see him out again to know whether he was just mopping up early season races and others have improved past, and this is only reinforced by his trainer admitting Thomas Derby has more talent out of the two. I think the question is fair enough.
 
bobbyvalentino said:
I’m trying to gauge whether people are putting him up as each way value, and I agree the price is too big, or they think he’s genuine contender.

Not deducing where or how you’ve arrived at the opinion. I know a lot of podcasts have been saying he’s got an each way squeak for much the same arguments you’ve laid out there. Incidentally I backed him for a fair chunk around Christmas when Elixir de Nutz went on to prove the form had some substance, and now the contenders have been clearer I’ve got the option of reducing that outlay or holding. To be honest I’d have wanted to see him out again to know whether he was just mopping up early season races and others have improved past, and this is only reinforced by his trainer admitting Thomas Derby has more talent out of the two. I think the question is fair enough.
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Itchy Feet has better form than Thomas Darby
 
I'm with Thomas Darby over Itchy Feet. Personally just think TD will be much more at home in a big field, going a good clip at a track like Cheltenham.

I can find excuses/reasons for his 2 defeats since his win on debut beating Elixir De Nutz.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'm with Thomas Darby over Itchy Feet. Personally just think TD will be much more at home in a big field, going a good clip at a track like Cheltenham.

I can find excuses/reasons for his 2 defeats since his win on debut beating Elixir De Nutz.
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Don't get me wrong, I like Thomas Darby and it's a marginal preference at what was two very different prices.
 
Ruby’s been doing a media day for Paddy Power today and reckons the target for Klassical Dream is still genuinely up in the air, said if it’s soft would probably come here
 
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