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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2019

The way to get Ok Corral beat would be to go really slow and hope he wastes energy tanking and /or pulling too hard.

If they go a strong pace his class will ensure he gets the trip.

I think he's a really solid favourite as the best horse (most talented) in the race. I don't think anything is dour enough to run the finish out of him.
 
Ok Corral is clear on my figures. I'm not bothered about him settling DO will bury him. Wouldn't want to lay 3/1 personally.
 
TheClaimer said:
Doesn't it worry you that Henderson has never trained a 4 mile winner?
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Do any of them tick Gault trends

3 of the last 4 had each already run in 10 chases
Eight of the last nine were chasing by 31st Oct.
Since becoming Graded, no winner with less than 3 chase runs.
 
mayo said:
Do any of them tick Gault trends

3 of the last 4 had each already run in 10 chases
Eight of the last nine were chasing by 31st Oct.
Since becoming Graded, no winner with less than 3 chase runs.
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Very interesting Mayo.....that makes Ibis Du Rheu look more interesting
 
The King Pimm said:
Very interesting Mayo.....that makes Ibis Du Rheu look more interesting
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I have Discorama, Ballyward and OK Corral. Having gone through all runners thoroughly with no intention of backing anything else, the only one I had to add was Ibis Du Rheu. He is not really being mentioned much but the potential fly in the ointment. 20/1 NRNB B365
 
The King Pimm said:
I had already picked out Discorama ante posts before reading the Mullins stats about fallers if I’m honest. I listened to that race live you’re referring too which Ballyward won and it sounded a very confident performance but it also sounded like Discorama was also ready to pounce before falling. I’m not that overly confident with any of the horses in a 4 mile chase with amateur riders but before reading the Mullins stats on fallers was going to involve Ballyward in a few accumulators but I don’t think it’s worth the risk at 3/1 (5/1 previously). Do you think Ballyward is bomb proof?
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I don't think that Ballyward is bombproof but I do think that he's the most likely winner.

Discorama has decent form including finishing a respectable 5th in the best novice chase in Ireland this season but to bet on a horse that you listened to without watching a replay is going back 30 years in time. My own opinion of that race is that I think that Ballyward would have won but that's all it can be because Discorama fell. To not back Ballyward because of Mullins faller stats is, frankly, very odd but entirely a choice that you are entitled to make.
 
Kevloaf said:
The way to get Ok Corral beat would be to go really slow and hope he wastes energy tanking and /or pulling too hard.

If they go a strong pace his class will ensure he gets the trip.

I think he's a really solid favourite as the best horse (most talented) in the race. I don't think anything is dour enough to run the finish out of him.
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It's a tricky one.
I like him and even though he races keen, some can look like that and it not really take much out of them. I hope he's one of those.
The stronger gallop could also disadvantage him as the ones with more experience that have been through the pain barrier before (like recent stats suggest) may become more of a threat.
I'm basing my confidence on his class and the bartlett run, where barry waited too long and then almost stopped at the last.
The horse still picked up best of the others and ran on bravely.
There aren't many horses that have run in this in their novice season that would've been close to favourite in the RSA.
 
Ground was pretty horrible come the Bartlett
 
Muswell said:
Ground was pretty horrible come the Bartlett
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yeah,
I rated that form at beginning of the season as they just have to have good engines and hearts to have ran well in that race.
As novices.
 
quevega said:
It's a tricky one.
I like him and even though he races keen, some can look like that and it not really take much out of them. I hope he's one of those.
The stronger gallop could also disadvantage him as the ones with more experience that have been through the pain barrier before (like recent stats suggest) may become more of a threat.
I'm basing my confidence on his class and the bartlett run, where barry waited too long and then almost stopped at the last.
The horse still picked up best of the others and ran on bravely.
There aren't many horses that have run in this in their novice season that would've been close to favourite in the RSA.
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A part of Ok Corral's price now is the 'plot' or plan when Derek O'Connor was jocked up...and he won.

If Codd had been booked on Champange Classic he'd be shorter than he is now... and when it gets officially announced he'll shorten. BUT CC didn't win.

I don't think the marklet reacts the same way to Patrick Mullins (even though it should) because really they should take no chances on any Mullins runner but they do, until jocked up or it looks obvious.

I think I'd back Ballyward now at the prices if I was having one bet.... but I am really keen on Ok Corral still
 
Kevloaf said:
A part of Ok Corral's price now is the 'plot' or plan when Derek O'Connor was jocked up...and he won.

If Codd had been booked on Champange Classic he'd be shorter than he is now... and when it gets officially announced he'll shorten. BUT CC didn't win.

I don't think the marklet reacts the same way to Patrick Mullins (even though it should) because really they should take no chances on any Mullins runner but they do, until jocked up or it looks obvious.

I think I'd back Ballyward now at the prices if I was having one bet.... but I am really keen on Ok Corral still
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I would do exactly the same.
 
Do you think Champange Classic will shorten again? I do when it's announced Codd is riding - so MAYBE if I was having a bet NOW, I'd back CC e/w - but he does look a little bit held by Ballyward and even Discorama
 
Kevloaf said:
Do you think Champange Classic will shorten again? I do when it's announced Codd is riding - so MAYBE if I was having a bet NOW, I'd back CC e/w - but he does look a little bit held by Ballyward and even Discorama
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Codd won't be riding, will he?

Gordon said Lisa O'Neil will get the choice between gun digger and CC. It'd be a surprise of she didn't pick CC, on all known form.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Codd won't be riding, will he?

Gordon said Lisa O'Neil will get the choice between gun digger and CC. It'd be a surprise of she didn't pick CC, on all known form.
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Also been reported from a preview that Codd's rides will be:

Measureofmydreams (Kim Muir)
Champange Classic (4 miler)
Envoi Allen (Bumper)
Ucello Conti (Fox)


I'm not sure Lisa O'Neill will really get the choice.
 
Kevloaf said:
Also been reported from a preview that Codd's rides will be:

Measureofmydreams (Kim Muir)
Champange Classic (4 miler)
Envoi Allen (Bumper)
Ucello Conti (Fox)


I'm not sure Lisa O'Neill will really get the choice.
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These preview evening can muddy the water slightly. It wouldn't surprise me if GD wasnt even declared in this. Mortal and CC would be the two Gigginstown I'd run in this.
 
I can't have Codd on the 2nd choice for Gordon or Gigginstown, no matter what they say.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
These preview evening can muddy the water slightly. It wouldn't surprise me if GD wasnt even declared in this. Mortal and CC would be the two Gigginstown I'd run in this.
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Definitely.
Jocks/Trainers will always be guarded, it's not in their interests to be over honest...
 
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