Fat Jockey - Day Four Festival Yankee - Captain is quevega

[Kevloaf]

More details to follow...

 

[Kevloaf]

Quevega....you are to listen to the debate posted within the confindes of the forum, and ultimately have the final pick on four horses for Friday of the festival.

Win or each way is your decision, based on the cases and suggestions put forward by the rest of us.

 

[Kevloaf]

Commander Of Fleet

I thought he was good when winning the Grade 1 novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He was a bit green in front and should come on from it. I think stepping up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett will suit him. He actually ran well in the Royal Bond over two miles, but the trip was just too short for him. The one negative with him is that he might just lack a bit of experience for a race like the Albert Bartlett, so we might just take him away for a school over hurdles before we go there. He will hopefully be a sharper horse at Cheltenham than he was at Leopardstown.


He's got to be considered? 3 runs is more than quite a few will have had, clearly talented.... beaten the best in Ireland so far? A decent enough price?

 

[The King Pimm]

Congratulations Quevega, I’ll look forward to seeing your final 4 choices for the final day

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Commander Of Fleet

I thought he was good when winning the Grade 1 novice hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. He was a bit green in front and should come on from it. I think stepping up to three miles for the Albert Bartlett will suit him. He actually ran well in the Royal Bond over two miles, but the trip was just too short for him. The one negative with him is that he might just lack a bit of experience for a race like the Albert Bartlett, so we might just take him away for a school over hurdles before we go there. He will hopefully be a sharper horse at Cheltenham than he was at Leopardstown.


He's got to be considered? 3 runs is more than quite a few will have had, clearly talented.... beaten the best in Ireland so far? A decent enough price?

COF has to come in to the reckoning if we are looking at the AB. That form is probably the best on offer IMO, and quite frankly can't believe he is still an 8/1 shot for a race that is lacking somewhat.

Birchdale and Dickie Diver could be 'anything' but lack race experience for me. Lisnager Oscar is solid, but if you're having that one you have to consider Rockpoint @ 33's, as there is no way he ran his race at Haydock, and I'm not alone in thinking that either, but ultimately the solid option for me would be COF. My only other suggestion would be Relegate

 

[Leman14]

If EW - Le Prezien in the Grand Annual

Reigning Champ, target confirmed, good Cheltenham form, 20/1 ish

What's not to like?

 

[charlie]

If EW - Le Prezien in the Grand Annual

Reigning Champ, target confirmed, good Cheltenham form, 20/1 ish

What's not to like?

I agree. No ground concerns, still only 8 and JP & PN both have solid records in this race too:

JP Record

Grand Annual
26 / 3 / 3 / 2
2018 - Le Prezien 15/2
2013 - Alderwood 3/1f
2012 - Bellvano 20/1

Paul Nicholls

Grand Annual
20 / 3 / 3 / 0
2018 – Le Prezien 15/2
2016 - Solar Impulse 28/1
2008 – Andreas 12/1

 

[JackieMoon33]

If EW - Le Prezien in the Grand Annual

Reigning Champ, target confirmed, good Cheltenham form, 20/1 ish

What's not to like?

And remarkably only 1lb extra on his back

 

[mayo]

And remarkably only 1lb extra on his back

Indeed.

Whats Rachel got Friday

 

[charlie]

And remarkably only 1lb extra on his back

Lovely stuff

 

[Quevega]

Indeed.

Whats Rachel got Friday

:highly_amused:
Only her rides are allowed
Get to work

(joking) just in case....

 

[Sirbetalot]

If EW - Le Prezien in the Grand Annual

Reigning Champ, target confirmed, good Cheltenham form, 20/1 ish

What's not to like?

Seems to have done all his winning on soft, had some form on good but only placed, last year the ground was very soft and he hacked up, but 2017 was backed like it could not lose and was beaten 12L

I would fancy Theinval, last year the ground went totally against him and made a few mistake but wasn't beaten that far. Also he beat Dolos by 1/2L and dolos just beat Le Prezien by 49L..

Scrap Theinval as I do not think it's running, but Dolos must be in front of Le Prezien if he turns up surely?

 

[Quevega]

Probably the most difficult day (usually is anyway)
And I assume we have to put this in on the Sunday, so it'd be wise to choose horses who have pretty much confirmed targets.

Pretty sure the first one on the team sheet should be

Commander of Fleet.

as already mentioned

Looks solid contender.
Forum favourite also.
Looked slow in earlier races when Gordon was messing about with his novice hurdlers earlier in the season.
But the Dublin festival race he won was just a very solid piece of form for this race.
He's pretty much pencilled in the number one position for this yankee already. only pencilled though.

It looks like this yankee may need to be each way as aside from the triumph all the races look pretty competitive to me. so i'd favour each way at this stage but we'll see what people come up with in next fortnight.

 

[Arkle]

I’m a fan of stand up and fight DO’C was so confident at down royal with him didn’t use whip he cantered all over them big chance

 

[Kevloaf]

Kemboy... the 10/1 or 9/1 available right now are actually pretty generous.

He went 8/1 pretty much across the board after his win.... and he's gone out in price for not doing anything.



I personally have enough multiples on Presenting Certainty anyway to not need to worry about him sending this bet down

 

[Kevloaf]

and Pic D'orhy each way against Sir Erec?!

Although will be shorter by the Sunday probably.

 

[Quevega]

I’m a fan of stand up and fight DO’C was so confident at down royal with him didn’t use whip he cantered all over them big chance

My worry with him is I watched the point to point he was beaten in (by Fennos' Storm), and he was travelling so well and cruised up to Fenno's who'd been ridden for a furlong, and when asked to go past and win his race he responded with nothing and Fennos' ended up winning going away. Wouldnot bode well for this race with the hill and all that.

I'd want a good excuse as to why that happened.

And this season we have 2 very good (ex handicappers) in Ucello Conti and Shantou Flyer in the race, and they're available at similar if not slightly bigger prices.

But open to persuasion as always

 

[Quevega]

and Pic D'orhy each way against Sir Erec?!

Although will be shorter by the Sunday probably.

He'd want to have been confirmed a runner for me, and even then I'd not be that keen.
Don't think nicholls will run it here, but hopefully he does confirm for this and he'd enter calculations.

Be hard one for me though, as although not as big a winner for me.
Sir Erec looks NAP material to my eyes and noggin.
so playing for places anyway.

 

[Quevega]

Kemboy... the 10/1 or 9/1 available right now are actually pretty generous.

He went 8/1 pretty much across the board after his win.... and he's gone out in price for not doing anything.



I personally have enough multiples on Presenting Certainty anyway to not need to worry about him sending this bet down

I'd be a fan of kemboy for this and not backed him myself.
I blame archie for not mentioning the 50-1 prior to the lexus, as a bet to nothing.
He was still being all coy and defensive at the time.
as long as he's safe blah de blah

 

[bobbyvalentino]

My worry with him is I watched the point to point he was beaten in (by Fennos' Storm), and he was travelling so well and cruised up to Fenno's who'd been ridden for a furlong, and when asked to go past and win his race he responded with nothing and Fennos' ended up winning going away. Wouldnot bode well for this race with the hill and all that.

I'd want a good excuse as to why that happened.

And this season we have 2 very good (ex handicappers) in Ucello Conti and Shantou Flyer in the race, and they're available at similar if not slightly bigger prices.

But open to persuasion as always

I'm not entirely sure he wants 3m2f after that performance against Fennos Storm. If the ground came up quick he's a player