• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Angel's Breath a sea of blue on Oddschecker today. Them 16's straight after the race look a bit silly now. Klassical Dream drifting more. Time to cash out.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Angel's Breath a sea of blue on Oddschecker today. Them 16's straight after the race look a bit silly now. Klassical Dream drifting more. Time to cash out.
Click to expand...

Bit disappointed I cashed out the 25s so quickly, but I really wanted that NRNB cover as 365 have been so quick off the mark recently. Think I got an averaged 15/1 going back in, plus a top up of 10s which looks decent now.

He still has a great chance IMO.
 
I think so too BV.

Just re-watched (for about the 5th time) the run on Saturday, he is nearly pulling Nico out the saddle over the first 2 hurdles, he'll much prefer the quicker pace of the Supreme for sure. I'm still confident about his chances and believe the hype too.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I think so too BV.

Just re-watched (for about the 5th time) the run on Saturday, he is nearly pulling Nico out the saddle over the first 2 hurdles, he'll much prefer the quicker pace of the Supreme for sure. I'm still confident about his chances and believe the hype too.
Click to expand...

I’m in the same boat. Watched it numerous times now, pulled hard, still jumped well, beat what was considered his main market rival by 17l in a course record time (giving 5lbs to winner) after a flu jab and interrupted prep. Expect him to be bang there.
 
Personally, i would still happily have him over Als Dancer.

I have Klassical Dream on my side vs the favourite, but that's it right now. I think this is wide open, and the favourite is a horrid price, but one that is clearly down to a lack of quality.

Considering adding him.

I don't know whether i am paying too much respect to RPRs here, but Als Dancer 152 while Angels Breath 151. Add in the fact AB has 1 PTP and 2 hurdle runs to his name compared to Als 8 runs, 4 over hurdles and know who i'd rather side with...
 
Angels Breath needed to win that on saturday.
more than likely not good enough.
charli parcs 2 ?
I probably shouldn't have cashed the 33's though :highly_amused:

You never know.
Supreme looks open as..
 
I was probably a little bit hasty in cashing out half my Angels Breath stake on Saturday along with a few others in here by the sounds of it. But i just don't see how he'll improve enough in the coming 2 weeks to win. I know he was giving weight away but at the same time Southfield Stone (seen as a handicapper by Paul Nicholls) done everything he could to try and give AB the race. He hasn't had the kind of prep Nicky wanted to give him and there's question marks over whether 2m is his optimum trip. I have him covered NRNB & happy to leave him at that, if he improves vastly il be happy to be proven wrong.

Didn't personally rate the Betfair Hurdle Al Dancer won and if Dai thought he had the Supreme winner there would be no question marks over Angels Breath's target. I think the flu jab situation has affected Nicky more than most so that puts me off Mister Fisher and I don't overly rate the Irish raiders this season so that narrows it down to Elixir De Nutz, Grand Sancy & Itchy Feet for me. Elixir De Nutz is a hardy horse but he may struggle to make all (as he normally does) in the Supreme given the pace they'll go and he'll be vulnerable to one or two coming off the pace up the hill imo.

Between Grand Sancy & Itchy Feet for my money with the 33/1 NRNB Sky money back offer I'm leaning towards the latter.

Any recent updates from Olly Murphy on him? Having only run on good ground so far is Itchy Feet dependant that we know of?
 
Last edited:
SeanRock said:
Any recent updates from Olly Murphy on him? Having only run on good ground so far is Itchy Feet dependant that we know of?
Click to expand...

On twitter he said he was on target to go straight there... didn't give too much away but it didn't put me off.

I make a similar case a few days back but then bickering began and it's lost to the depths of the forum :devilish:
 
Kevloaf said:
On twitter he said he was on target to go straight there... didn't give too much away but it didn't put me off.

I make a similar case a few days back but then bickering began and it's lost to the depths of the forum :devilish:
Click to expand...

This is IF's only entry, which is interesting. Thomas Darby is entered up for three handicaps but Itchy Feet isn't entered for any. Perhaps nothing in it, but I read this as a positive for Itchy Feet.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
This is IF's only entry, which is interesting. Thomas Darby is entered up for three handicaps but Itchy Feet isn't entered for any. Perhaps nothing in it, but I read this as a positive for Itchy Feet.
Click to expand...

Yeah, certainly not negative although you're probably right in there being nothing in it?

You get the vibe Olly prefers TD though? I do... which puts me off slightly?
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, certainly not negative although you're probably right in there being nothing in it?

You get the vibe Olly prefers TD though? I do... which puts me off slightly?
Click to expand...

I don’t. I’m sure the other month he made a point of referencing Itchy Feet’s form lines and saying he was the forgotten horse in the betting. I actually like both. IF was better than EdN and if he’s improved over the winter could still be, and he ran well at Cheltenham, so I think 33s is way too big. And I think the race pace will suit TD, and he likes the course too.

In my gut, I still have a feeling Aramon will surprise everyone and do everyone else for toe after the second last.
 
Kevloaf said:
Yeah, certainly not negative although you're probably right in there being nothing in it?

You get the vibe Olly prefers TD though? I do... which puts me off slightly?
Click to expand...

TD has more talent but there's a definite arguement to say that he doesn't put it all in on the track.

It'd be great if Olly could get the winner of a grade 1 at Cheltenham but no doubt someone will tell me that he can't train the winner of this race. :devilish:
 
Must have missed that amongst the bickering then Kev. Yeah went back to scratch with this race today and he stood out to me. Looks overlooked & overpriced to me.

I wonder did Olly have a slight preference for Thomas Darby at the start of the season. That could well have changed by now. TD’s formline with Didtheyleaveuouto is enough to put me off him. Itchy Feet may have come on over the winter. Might wait till we have a clearer picture on the going before having a punt. If it came up soft it would probably be a negative
 
I was always under the impression that Olly thought IF was his best chance in the supreme. I would have liked to have seen him out which is slightly off-putting
 
Don't forget folks the sheer number of offers on the Supreme. I was in a right mess in this race last year (not much better this year) especially after late NRs, but spent some time manipulating every special offer going so it required a minimal real money input and managed to have most of those at the front of the market covered (something like the first 9...haha) for a small profit to get things up and running. Obviously of more relevance to the smaller punters
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom