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Fat Jockey - Day Three Festival Yankee - Captain is jonthehammer

Kevloaf

Kevloaf

Apparently came 3rd overall in the Fantasy Premier
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Jonthehammer....you are to listen to the debate posted within the confindes of the forum, and ultimately have the final pick on four horses for Thursday of the festival.

Win or each way is your decision, based on the cases and suggestions put forward by the rest of us.
 
Oooo I got the gig, id like to thank...….

Cheers Kev, sounds good to me.

Let the fun commence!!
 
For an Each Way acca I would put forward Cepage 14/1 NRNB Brown Advisory.

With Frodon now Gold Cup bound that form in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is looking solid, as is beating BetVictor Gold Cup winner Baron Alco 17 lengths and Guitar Pete 15 lengths last time out (albeit receiving weight). Baron Alco was 2nd in the Brown Advisory in 2017 and Guitar Pete was 6th in the Brown Advisory last year.

If you watch the Caspian Caviar back (link below) Cepage jumps well, wings the 3rd last and as he comes down the hill Charlie Deutsch gives him a few reminders then realises quite quickly he had enough left to come up to Frodon. Was then pushed up the hill to mount a challenge, jumped the last 3 lengths down before rallying well to lose by a length. The way he rallied was eye catching, as was the improvement in his jumping in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup vs his previous run at Cheltenham. He is still relatively young and there’s no reason to think there isn’t improvement in him

https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-racing/race
replays/2018/12/15/#caspian_caviar_gold_cup_handicap_chase_grade_3

Venetia is having a brilliant season too. She’s already approaching last season’s prize-money total and there are just under 3 months of the season still left to go. Charlie Deutsch has been absolutely flying since his return and Venetia says "He’s so good from the front and it makes sense that he often goes there - you haven’t got horses intimidating you, you can get into a rhythm and you have a nice view of the fences”. Given Cepage had no problem following a strong pace set by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar, I think they will jump Cepage out prominently and try and win it from the front. The engine and desire to chase Frodon up that hill and is exactly what I want to be seeing from a horse over C&D before backing them for the Brown Advisory
 
I’m not the most knowledgeable of the handicap systems in horse racing so please don’t take too much offence if my facts & figures don’t add up but my suggestion for day 3 would be the Phillip Hobbs horse Wait For Me if he qualifies for the Pertemps Hurdle. He should qualify having finished 3rd in a qualifier on Boxing Day at Wincanton. He’s currently on a mark of 137 so should be at the lower end of the weights. It took him 3 attempts to qualify for the final so clearly this is the race they’ve had mapped out for him and what interests me most is that the final on March 14th will be his 2nd race since a wind op. He showed a marked improvement first time out after the wind op and at a low weight with probably a decent jockey on board (Richard Johnson rode him last October at Cheltenham so may get the ride ??) Hobbs has won this race before and has had a good season so far and won’t have many horses at the Festival so I think this is a live outsider to consider.
 
charlie said:
For an Each Way acca I would put forward Cepage 14/1 NRNB Brown Advisory.

With Frodon now Gold Cup bound that form in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is looking solid, as is beating BetVictor Gold Cup winner Baron Alco 17 lengths and Guitar Pete 15 lengths last time out (albeit receiving weight). Baron Alco was 2nd in the Brown Advisory in 2017 and Guitar Pete was 6th in the Brown Advisory last year.

If you watch the Caspian Caviar back (link below) Cepage jumps well, wings the 3rd last and as he comes down the hill Charlie Deutsch gives him a few reminders then realises quite quickly he had enough left to come up to Frodon. Was then pushed up the hill to mount a challenge, jumped the last 3 lengths down before rallying well to lose by a length. The way he rallied was eye catching, as was the improvement in his jumping in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup vs his previous run at Cheltenham. He is still relatively young and there’s no reason to think there isn’t improvement in him

https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-racing/race
replays/2018/12/15/#caspian_caviar_gold_cup_handicap_chase_grade_3

Venetia is having a brilliant season too. She’s already approaching last season’s prize-money total and there are just under 3 months of the season still left to go. Charlie Deutsch has been absolutely flying since his return and Venetia says "He’s so good from the front and it makes sense that he often goes there - you haven’t got horses intimidating you, you can get into a rhythm and you have a nice view of the fences”. Given Cepage had no problem following a strong pace set by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar, I think they will jump Cepage out prominently and try and win it from the front. The engine and desire to chase Frodon up that hill and is exactly what I want to be seeing from a horse over C&D before backing them for the Brown Advisory
Click to expand...

As someone who hasn't covered Cepage it's a fairly convincing case. All without mentioning Venetia's liking for this race too. Think she is 2 wins & 2 places from 20 runners, that information from the very informative handicap thread you have been doing.

Might have to get this one onside.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As someone who hasn't covered Cepage it's a fairly convincing case. All without mentioning Venetia's liking for this race too. Think she is 2 wins & 2 places from 20 runners, that information from the very informative handicap thread you have been doing.

Might have to get this one onside.
Click to expand...

My case was taken from page 8 on the owners/trainers thread on a VW analysis - her record in the race is very very good
 
Thursdays are the new Tuesdays for Ruby/Mullins imo.
 
Good start, thanks chaps.

It is early days but I would probably like to go each way with 1 banker in there (for instance possibly Min should he go Ryanair or even PP for the Stayers). Then we can build around that with some good value horses.

With 3 handicaps on the Thursday there is definitely some value to be had out there.

I actually have Cepage on my shortlist but he is unbacked at present. I was also very keen on Glenloe but he may not make it now unless he gets this third run into him.

First assignment also could be very well treated in the Pertemps.


Get those cases forward gents...…..
 
Lostintranslation - 5/1

- Solid graded form all season, nothing in it between him and Defi and yet he's 1-2 pts bigger
- Signs that he probably has a stamina edge over Defi and stayers have been suited by race in the past
- Course and distance winner

This market is STILL littered with horses that won't run here and I'm struggling to see anything coming from left field. Willie's best is Real Steel who he's admitted today he would prefer to get into the handicap, and Gordy's one is likely to be Mengli Khan who has been very disappointing all season to say the least.

LIT looks rock solid for a place with a cracking chance of winning too.
 
Viking Flagship said:
Lostintranslation - 5/1

- Solid graded form all season, nothing in it between him and Defi and yet he's 1-2 pts bigger
- Signs that he probably has a stamina edge over Defi and stayers have been suited by race in the past
- Course and distance winner

This market is STILL littered with horses that won't run here and I'm struggling to see anything coming from left field. Willie's best is Real Steel who he's admitted today he would prefer to get into the handicap, and Gordy's one is likely to be Mengli Khan who has been very disappointing all season to say the least.

LIT looks rock solid for a place with a cracking chance of winning too.
Click to expand...


He does look very solid especially for a place and with a great chance of winning on the day. My original one was Vinndication but probably wont even run here and may go RSA. He has also improved as the season has gone on
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As someone who hasn't covered Cepage it's a fairly convincing case. All without mentioning Venetia's liking for this race too. Think she is 2 wins & 2 places from 20 runners, that information from the very informative handicap thread you have been doing.

Might have to get this one onside.
Click to expand...

Me too !. Decent price still ,.i.m.o.
 
KILDISART is an each-way price in the JLT, a race which could weaken if Defi Du Seul moves to the Arkle. His RPR is close to the highest, and his LTO win at Chelters showed potential with his willingness to stay on really well to the finish. He may be able to improve further as his jumping could be bettered. To my eye he relished the battle at the end of the race, and devoured the hill. That’s what I want from a potential Cheltenham Festival Bet.
 
Cases have been made for Belami Des Pictons over the last few days that shouldn't be ignored... did you see them?

Happy Diva for the same race also looks really well handicapped on bits of her form (2nd to Mister Whittaker, 2L behind Aso, Beat Magic Of Light... )
 
jonthehammer said:
Do we anymore to throw into the melting pot folks?
Click to expand...

Just a list of day 3 fancies, pretty much made cases for the majority over time in their specific race threads so won't bore you will all that again, but:

JLT - Voix Du Reve :devilish:

Pertemps - First Assignment

Ryanair - Min

Stayers - Penhill or Faugheen (been dutching the pair myself)

Brown Advisory - Belami Des Pictons (only concern is that it may end up elsewhere)
 
Nicky Henderson gave River Wylde a positive statement on the ATR stable tour and stated the Brown Advisory was his target. His jumping in the past has been poor but he was powering along in his last race before falling at the last fence. If he can put a clean round of jumping in he’s has the power & speed to get very competitive in this race.
 
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