-
HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!
Fat Jockey - Day Two Festival Yankee - Captain is bobbyvalentino
- Thread starter Kevloaf
- Start date
Bobby....you are to listen to the debate posted within the confindes of the forum, and ultimately have the final pick on four horses for Wednesday of the festival.
Win or each way is your decision, based on the cases and suggestions put forward by the rest of us.
Win or each way is your decision, based on the cases and suggestions put forward by the rest of us.
:encouragement: Up to you to drive the conversation - doesn't specifically have to be in here, but it'd help
Altior will only have Footpad to bet an it'll be tough for anyone to make a case for him.
BF price tells us Min isn't coming here before the stable tour tomorrow
BF price tells us Min isn't coming here before the stable tour tomorrow
Rhinestone_Cowboy
Fat Jockey Patron
- Joined
- Nov 23, 2017
- Messages
- 2,161
- Reaction score
- 153
- Points
- 0
I know there is plenty support for both Santini and Delta Work (backed them both like many others) but at the prices Topofthegame 11/2 NRNB is my bet of the day to win. I never thought he warranted being nearly double the price of Santini on their last run with both likely to prefer Cheltenham and with previous Festival form in the bag. I know many thought Santini’s staying on third was a sign he’ll be staying on up the hill. Well he may well do I expect Topofthegame to be too far in front to catch. Added to that Santini has had an interrupted prep. While Delta Works will provide a threat and also has Festival form i’m not convinced the Irish form is as strong, was a shame he ducked the challenge with LBAR. Kudos to Sean again for putting up Topofthegame at 28s early doors.
Elsewhere there probably isn’t much juice left in the TR price, I’m such a fan I have no objections. Altior far too short to put in a Yankee imho. The Ballymore looks tricky at this stage as there may be some late comers to the party
Elsewhere there probably isn’t much juice left in the TR price, I’m such a fan I have no objections. Altior far too short to put in a Yankee imho. The Ballymore looks tricky at this stage as there may be some late comers to the party
Leman14
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
If EW...
Ballymore - Brewin'Upastorm (Decent form, target confirmed - should be there or thereabouts)
CC - Sceau Royal (Win part wasted? but can't see him out of the 3 - and likely to be a small field)
X-Country - Urgent De Gregaine (If the unthinkable happens.... Great record around Cheltenham - good EW poke)
FW - Dogon (I hate this race - and the bumper - but would be a popular winner on the forum...)
Ballymore - Brewin'Upastorm (Decent form, target confirmed - should be there or thereabouts)
CC - Sceau Royal (Win part wasted? but can't see him out of the 3 - and likely to be a small field)
X-Country - Urgent De Gregaine (If the unthinkable happens.... Great record around Cheltenham - good EW poke)
FW - Dogon (I hate this race - and the bumper - but would be a popular winner on the forum...)
I will be editing my first post to spark a bit of discussion, but please feel free to throw in initial impressions to the hat in the mean time
Post #1 of #7
Welcome to The Fat Jockey’s only guaranteed Yankee winner thread!!!
Let’s spark up some discussion
First a quick disclaimer on trends. I’m not the biggest trends fan, and I do enjoy jibing those that tell me a horse cannot win race X because they didn’t meet this conditional criteria. Indeed you would think if there is ever a year to completely ignore trends it will be this one, which will likely in the fullness of time prove a statistical anomaly due to the mixing pot of record dry winter ground, equine flu and the previous festival form being completely turned on its head. M. Tombs describes the madness of strict based trends analysis in his Cheltenham festival betting guide – if you look at the history of a race you would find statistically that horses born on one day of the week have tended to win more of the renewals, but I don't think anyone here is going to argue that makes it more likely for this year’s winner to be born on that day.
I’m very much in the camp we should form our opinions by watching renewals and key trials, then look to see if the trends support the theory. I know Gault stats is a popular resource open to all and regularly used by the forum members, so I won’t repeat its content here. I will however highlight some trends for each race, again from the excellent Cheltenham betting guide, that show what has been a profitable type of horse to back over past renewals. Hopefully this can encourage us to think outside the market favourites which have been thoroughly debated on other threads.
Time to get on with it
Ballymore
Tends to be run at a steady tempo, with an ability to quicken at the end requisite. Given the moderately run nature, it hasn’t favoured keen horses. A lack of experience is not a huge negative in this race, and proven graded form has come very much to the fore.
- Horses finished in first 6 of Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown graded bumpers (+25pts)
- Grade 1 winning hurdle form at 2m (+13pts)
- Top 2 rated on BHA (+19pts)
- Nigel Twiston-Davies (+12.5pts)
- Front 5 in the market (+21pts)
Key contenders (prices as at 24.02):
Champ 3/1: No questions about target, but I’m very much against Champ in this, based mainly off the form book and how he races. The handicap win this season was an egg and spoon race, and although the Challow looked deep in quality, it was falsely run which throws the form into doubt. Additionally Getaway Trump and Kateson have done nothing for it since. No doubt Champ ticks the requisite finishing-speed box, but I think his keen racing style and the buzz of the festival are going to find him out. He is also a second season novice, so there is more potential for others in this field to improve past. Someone is going to have to put forward a very convincing case to get me on this one.
Battleoverdoyen 5/1: Unbeaten in four starts, last seen winning the Lawlors rather cosily, but where market challenger Tornado Flyer was pulled up clearly not right. He’s the Giggi first string and the vibes have been strong, so must be respected. My worry is watching his races, he gives the hurdles a lot of air and looks like he will be much more of a machine over fences. I’m not sure he will be sharp or quick enough to win this, but a strong place prospect.
City Island 10/1: would be unbeaten over hurdles if it wasn’t for a disqualification on debut. Hard to get a handle on the form given the races he’s been running in but he beat Dallas Des Pictons over 2m in December, who has since won his last two starts (albeit over further) and a bit of a talking horse. He’s been a bit of a hipster selection on podcasts which has made him too short in the market in my opinion, a big negative from above is the lack of graded form.
Klassical Dream 12/1: won the Deloitte (now 2m) on his second start for WPM. Although he looked like he was going to be tapped for toe there, stamina won the day to hold on. Vibes are he’s the best of the novice crop, and still huge potential for improvement. 50/50 at this stage whether he turns up here or the Supreme, likely to be partly decided by the ground, but my view is that KD is Mullins best shot to win this, whereas Aramon doesn’t have a huge amount to find at 2m. I think he’ll run here. I also find him very hard to knock out the frame given he arguably brings the best novice hurdle form to the table.
Brewinupastorm 12/1: was travelling extremely well in the Classic Novices (2m4f) before falling at the last leaving Birchdale to bound on clear. The vibes are Birchdale goes up in trip (who looked very green in this), but I reckon Brewin’ would have won that. It’s a big negative he’s coming into the festival off the back of a fall for his confidence.
Angels Breath 12/1: let’s be honest it’s hard to take too many positives from the Dovecote, you wanted to see him win well to justify the lofty reputation, despite giving away weight. That said I do think he’s still in with a live chance at Cheltenham, a track likely to play more to his strengths, and he jumped fairly well yesterday considering previously only jumping four hurdles. The time was also apparently strong. The question is we still don’t know where, or if, he will be turning up, and I very much want to listen to the vibes over the next few weeks. If he turns up here I can see him running well, experience being less of an issue and he would be ticking the 2m form box.
Beakstown 16/1: his best RPR of 141 came in the Leamington win, which hasn’t been well advertised since. We haven’t got a lot to go on in assessing him but I’m not sure if he is up to this level. I would have preferred to see him race over 2m in order to evaluate whether he will have to toe for this, but given that the Albert Bartlett was being muted by connections, you would be surprised.
And that's it from me in terms of contenders evaluation, because I haven’t got all day. If you would like to throw any others in please feel free to make a case.
My approach to this Yankee will likely be based around prospects I consider very hard to knock out the frame, with a realistic chance of winning. There may be some unexposed wildcards that could dot up or bomb out, but I’d rather take a shorter price for some solid form in the book so we can get set our minimum bar at the place return. That said, let’s take on the fav where we can!!
Looking forward to your thoughts on whether there is a Ballymore contender to be included
Welcome to The Fat Jockey’s only guaranteed Yankee winner thread!!!
Let’s spark up some discussion
First a quick disclaimer on trends. I’m not the biggest trends fan, and I do enjoy jibing those that tell me a horse cannot win race X because they didn’t meet this conditional criteria. Indeed you would think if there is ever a year to completely ignore trends it will be this one, which will likely in the fullness of time prove a statistical anomaly due to the mixing pot of record dry winter ground, equine flu and the previous festival form being completely turned on its head. M. Tombs describes the madness of strict based trends analysis in his Cheltenham festival betting guide – if you look at the history of a race you would find statistically that horses born on one day of the week have tended to win more of the renewals, but I don't think anyone here is going to argue that makes it more likely for this year’s winner to be born on that day.
I’m very much in the camp we should form our opinions by watching renewals and key trials, then look to see if the trends support the theory. I know Gault stats is a popular resource open to all and regularly used by the forum members, so I won’t repeat its content here. I will however highlight some trends for each race, again from the excellent Cheltenham betting guide, that show what has been a profitable type of horse to back over past renewals. Hopefully this can encourage us to think outside the market favourites which have been thoroughly debated on other threads.
Time to get on with it
Ballymore
Tends to be run at a steady tempo, with an ability to quicken at the end requisite. Given the moderately run nature, it hasn’t favoured keen horses. A lack of experience is not a huge negative in this race, and proven graded form has come very much to the fore.
- Horses finished in first 6 of Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown graded bumpers (+25pts)
- Grade 1 winning hurdle form at 2m (+13pts)
- Top 2 rated on BHA (+19pts)
- Nigel Twiston-Davies (+12.5pts)
- Front 5 in the market (+21pts)
Key contenders (prices as at 24.02):
Champ 3/1: No questions about target, but I’m very much against Champ in this, based mainly off the form book and how he races. The handicap win this season was an egg and spoon race, and although the Challow looked deep in quality, it was falsely run which throws the form into doubt. Additionally Getaway Trump and Kateson have done nothing for it since. No doubt Champ ticks the requisite finishing-speed box, but I think his keen racing style and the buzz of the festival are going to find him out. He is also a second season novice, so there is more potential for others in this field to improve past. Someone is going to have to put forward a very convincing case to get me on this one.
Battleoverdoyen 5/1: Unbeaten in four starts, last seen winning the Lawlors rather cosily, but where market challenger Tornado Flyer was pulled up clearly not right. He’s the Giggi first string and the vibes have been strong, so must be respected. My worry is watching his races, he gives the hurdles a lot of air and looks like he will be much more of a machine over fences. I’m not sure he will be sharp or quick enough to win this, but a strong place prospect.
City Island 10/1: would be unbeaten over hurdles if it wasn’t for a disqualification on debut. Hard to get a handle on the form given the races he’s been running in but he beat Dallas Des Pictons over 2m in December, who has since won his last two starts (albeit over further) and a bit of a talking horse. He’s been a bit of a hipster selection on podcasts which has made him too short in the market in my opinion, a big negative from above is the lack of graded form.
Klassical Dream 12/1: won the Deloitte (now 2m) on his second start for WPM. Although he looked like he was going to be tapped for toe there, stamina won the day to hold on. Vibes are he’s the best of the novice crop, and still huge potential for improvement. 50/50 at this stage whether he turns up here or the Supreme, likely to be partly decided by the ground, but my view is that KD is Mullins best shot to win this, whereas Aramon doesn’t have a huge amount to find at 2m. I think he’ll run here. I also find him very hard to knock out the frame given he arguably brings the best novice hurdle form to the table.
Brewinupastorm 12/1: was travelling extremely well in the Classic Novices (2m4f) before falling at the last leaving Birchdale to bound on clear. The vibes are Birchdale goes up in trip (who looked very green in this), but I reckon Brewin’ would have won that. It’s a big negative he’s coming into the festival off the back of a fall for his confidence.
Angels Breath 12/1: let’s be honest it’s hard to take too many positives from the Dovecote, you wanted to see him win well to justify the lofty reputation, despite giving away weight. That said I do think he’s still in with a live chance at Cheltenham, a track likely to play more to his strengths, and he jumped fairly well yesterday considering previously only jumping four hurdles. The time was also apparently strong. The question is we still don’t know where, or if, he will be turning up, and I very much want to listen to the vibes over the next few weeks. If he turns up here I can see him running well, experience being less of an issue and he would be ticking the 2m form box.
Beakstown 16/1: his best RPR of 141 came in the Leamington win, which hasn’t been well advertised since. We haven’t got a lot to go on in assessing him but I’m not sure if he is up to this level. I would have preferred to see him race over 2m in order to evaluate whether he will have to toe for this, but given that the Albert Bartlett was being muted by connections, you would be surprised.
And that's it from me in terms of contenders evaluation, because I haven’t got all day. If you would like to throw any others in please feel free to make a case.
My approach to this Yankee will likely be based around prospects I consider very hard to knock out the frame, with a realistic chance of winning. There may be some unexposed wildcards that could dot up or bomb out, but I’d rather take a shorter price for some solid form in the book so we can get set our minimum bar at the place return. That said, let’s take on the fav where we can!!
Looking forward to your thoughts on whether there is a Ballymore contender to be included
Post #2 of #7
RSA Chase
Renewals vary between frantic gallops and steady pace. Market is usually priced up on top class hurdles form, but many “embryonic” chasers can improve past them. Focus on the graded novice chases and experience counts.
- Horses than ran in a chase during 1st or 2nd season (+56.5pts)
- Runners from previous Albert Bartlett (+33.5pts)
- Horses that have fallen over fences (+45pts)
- Favourites (+8pts)
- Horses with a chase RPR of 160+ in the book (+7.5pts)
- Grade 1 chase winners (+6pts)
- Horses than race over hurdles for only one season (+44pts)
- Horses that run in over 5 chases (+15.5pts)
Key contenders:
Santini 3/1: the yard have been proclaiming this horse a Gold Cup winner even before last year’s festival, where he was a solid 3rd in the Albert Bartlett under a conservative ride. Nicky has a great record in the race, so you have to take notice when he likes one this much. My main problem with this horse has always been its price. Even when coming 3rd at Kempton, the market had already priced in the expected improvement come Cheltenham, and he was barely pushed out a point. I can’t grab his jumping, which has been fine, nor his attitude. The only reason I can come up with to take him on would be a lack of experience, not uncommon in this year’s renewal, or if the pace wasn’t run true and he becomes vulnerable to one with a bit more tactical pace. A strong candidate for anchor leg (even though I think he would be banker material in the Four Miler).
Delta Work 4/1: he’s been bossing a weaker looking division over in Ireland but unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to measure the two up through a potential clash with LBAR. Has the festival form in the bag, is proven on all types of going, and it looks like it might be a small field, which could play into the hands of Delta Work who possess a bit more tactical pace. There’s a lot to like about him and will be ridden by master of Cheltenham fences D. N. Russell. On the negative side, he had a lot of racing during his hurdles campaign being hard trained for the Pertemps, so you could argue there’s less potential for improvement.
Topofthegame 6/1: On closer inspection of the form book, I’m actually going slightly cold on TOTG. The vast majority of his form is at 2.5m, the only chase over 3m being the Kauto. The fact he had so much tactical pace to get back into the race over 2m3f with DDS wouldn’t scream typical profile of an RSA winner. Everyone seems to be assuming he will improve for three miles largely off the comments of Nicholls. Arguably he did improve at Kempton, but that sharp flat track didn’t really give us chance to examine the stamina reserves. There’s also the risk he’s slightly quirky, having almost refused to start and a feeling he doesn’t quite get his head in front enough at 2/9. On the plus side, Nicholls is absolutely on fire at the moment. But would he not bolt up in the JLT?
Vinndication 20/1: ticks the boxes for a horse that was put over fences as quickly as possible, so could be on a much steeper upward curve. I’ve previously made a case for him in the JLT thread, which appears now to be up in smoke. I thought the Scilly Isles ride was extremely unusual as this guy’s jumping is at his best bawling along from the front and running the finish out of rivals, but he was never travelling that day. I just get the sense that Kim Bailey really doesn’t want to go to the festival this year, and if he does it will be tackling 3 miles and left-handed for the first time. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he turns up and wins this, but I’m not sure it’s a profile you can back.
RSA Chase
Renewals vary between frantic gallops and steady pace. Market is usually priced up on top class hurdles form, but many “embryonic” chasers can improve past them. Focus on the graded novice chases and experience counts.
- Horses than ran in a chase during 1st or 2nd season (+56.5pts)
- Runners from previous Albert Bartlett (+33.5pts)
- Horses that have fallen over fences (+45pts)
- Favourites (+8pts)
- Horses with a chase RPR of 160+ in the book (+7.5pts)
- Grade 1 chase winners (+6pts)
- Horses than race over hurdles for only one season (+44pts)
- Horses that run in over 5 chases (+15.5pts)
Key contenders:
Santini 3/1: the yard have been proclaiming this horse a Gold Cup winner even before last year’s festival, where he was a solid 3rd in the Albert Bartlett under a conservative ride. Nicky has a great record in the race, so you have to take notice when he likes one this much. My main problem with this horse has always been its price. Even when coming 3rd at Kempton, the market had already priced in the expected improvement come Cheltenham, and he was barely pushed out a point. I can’t grab his jumping, which has been fine, nor his attitude. The only reason I can come up with to take him on would be a lack of experience, not uncommon in this year’s renewal, or if the pace wasn’t run true and he becomes vulnerable to one with a bit more tactical pace. A strong candidate for anchor leg (even though I think he would be banker material in the Four Miler).
Delta Work 4/1: he’s been bossing a weaker looking division over in Ireland but unfortunately we didn’t get a chance to measure the two up through a potential clash with LBAR. Has the festival form in the bag, is proven on all types of going, and it looks like it might be a small field, which could play into the hands of Delta Work who possess a bit more tactical pace. There’s a lot to like about him and will be ridden by master of Cheltenham fences D. N. Russell. On the negative side, he had a lot of racing during his hurdles campaign being hard trained for the Pertemps, so you could argue there’s less potential for improvement.
Topofthegame 6/1: On closer inspection of the form book, I’m actually going slightly cold on TOTG. The vast majority of his form is at 2.5m, the only chase over 3m being the Kauto. The fact he had so much tactical pace to get back into the race over 2m3f with DDS wouldn’t scream typical profile of an RSA winner. Everyone seems to be assuming he will improve for three miles largely off the comments of Nicholls. Arguably he did improve at Kempton, but that sharp flat track didn’t really give us chance to examine the stamina reserves. There’s also the risk he’s slightly quirky, having almost refused to start and a feeling he doesn’t quite get his head in front enough at 2/9. On the plus side, Nicholls is absolutely on fire at the moment. But would he not bolt up in the JLT?
Vinndication 20/1: ticks the boxes for a horse that was put over fences as quickly as possible, so could be on a much steeper upward curve. I’ve previously made a case for him in the JLT thread, which appears now to be up in smoke. I thought the Scilly Isles ride was extremely unusual as this guy’s jumping is at his best bawling along from the front and running the finish out of rivals, but he was never travelling that day. I just get the sense that Kim Bailey really doesn’t want to go to the festival this year, and if he does it will be tackling 3 miles and left-handed for the first time. It wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he turns up and wins this, but I’m not sure it’s a profile you can back.
Istabraq
Fat Jockey Legend, Mod, Patron & King of the Paten
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2015
- Messages
- 14,322
- Reaction score
- 3,487
- Points
- 113
I have been a Santini man all season but the lack of a prep run following the flu vaccine issue concerns me, I’d be much stronger on Delta Work now who looks to have the ideal profile...
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Love your work Bobbyvalentino, fantastic over view and analysis, I appreciate the time and effort you’ve put into your posts, it’s a very helpful insight
You we're right about putting the effort in Bobby
Ballymore... Klassical Dream - we'll obviously KNOW by the time you make the final picks if he's a runner or not, but the fact they're leaving the Supreme behind must be a positive?
They MUST see this as winnable, if they're leaving Aramon in the Supreme wqhen he's goit him covered IMO.
Any soft in the going, I think he's going off much shorter.
Ballymore... Klassical Dream - we'll obviously KNOW by the time you make the final picks if he's a runner or not, but the fact they're leaving the Supreme behind must be a positive?
They MUST see this as winnable, if they're leaving Aramon in the Supreme wqhen he's goit him covered IMO.
Any soft in the going, I think he's going off much shorter.
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Has Klassical Dream been almost confirmed for the Ballymore or is it still in the air??im still out the country so missing all the horse racing coverage