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Paul Nicholls

Folski

Folski

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I have done a little analysis on Paul Nicholls in February the last 4 years and how that has followed onto Cheltenham.

February Performance
2019 - 13 wins 41 runners 32% £320k +22.30 Ascot Ch, Kingwell Hdl, Denman Ch.
2018 - 19 wins 76 runners 25% £359k -10.00 Reynoldstown, Pendil, National Spirit.
2017 - 17 wins 75 runners 23% £297k -23.06 Rendlesham, Pendil.
2016 - 21 wins 66 runners 32% £366k +12.71 Contenders, Ascot Ch, Adonis.
2015 - 14 wins 60 runners 23% £299k -15.84 Kingmaker, Game Spirt, Pendil.

Cheltenham Wins
2018 - Foxhunters, Grand Annual.
2017 - Foxhunters.
2016 - Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, Grand Annual.
2015 - Coral Cup, QMCC, Fred Winter.

Interestingly Paul hasn't had a horse place in a G1 at the festival since Saphir Du Rheu & Zarkander finished 2nd & 3rd to Cole Harden in the stayers back in 2015. He also won the QMCC with Dodging Bullets that year and Southfield Theatre was a well held 2nd to Don Poli. When I realised this I was amazed, I looked at the details and what I found just seemed bizarre to me.

Runners in G1s at Cheltenham 2016 - 2018 (0-0-18)
RSA: Black Corton & Le Mercury
QMCC: Politilogue & Dodging Bullets
JLT: Modus, Politilogue & As De Mee.
Ryanair: Vibrato Valtat.
Stayers: Zarkander, Aux Ptit Soins & Saphir Du Rheu.
Triumph: Clan Des Obeaux, Tommy Silver, Frodon, Connetable & Zubayr (all the same year).
Gold Cup: Saphir Du Rheu x 2

Nicholls hasn't had a runner in Supreme, Ballymore or Bartlett in at least 3 years, along with the Champion Hurdle & Arkle. I think Paulno longer believes he can compete at Cheltenham, therefore, has shifted his focus to November, December & April. Similar to Gordon & Willie, Nicky tends to have his horses ready later, his record at the Open meeting shows this, however Nicholls is primed by early October and runs right through to Christmas where his horses get their jabs and a break in Jan. February Nicholls again tries to steal as much prize money as possible with trainers having one eye on Cheltenham. March is a quiet month for him compared to everyone else who are focused mainly on Cheltenham, this allows him to have horses fresh for the end of the season when ever penny counts towards the trainers championship.

Since Cheltenham 2015 Nicholl's top 10 months in terms of prize money:
December 2018 - £729k
April 2015 - £567k
April 2016 - £560k
April 2017 - £506k
November 2015 - £500k
November 2018 - £496k
December 2017 - £483k
December 2016 - £429k
April 2018 - £416k
November 2016 - £402k

All are either November, December or April.

Compare that to the Marches and Februaries since:
2018 March - £248k February £359k
2017 March - £228k February £297k
2016 March - £324k February £366k

However in terms of best strike rate where Nichols has had more than 30 runners in a month in the last 5 years his record looks like this:
40% - October 2016
32% - February 2019
32% - February 2016
31% - November 2014
29% - October 2018
29% - October 2017

I would argue October & February are times of lesser competition in the UK NH season and PN has taken advantage.

Paul has had great success this year again and looks to have a nice team to take to Cheltenham but passed performance might say hold off till April.
 
Nice one Folski, some interesting stats in there. Must have a taken you a fair while that.
 
Great analysis Folski and some very interesting data there, but I'm in the camp that says his 2019 arsenal is stronger that he's had for many years, the fact he sits £370k ahead of his rivals in the trainers championship suggests this to be the case.
No question the Irish domination of recent years has impact Nicholls' success but I wouldn't be surprised to see him to have multiple winners this time round....
 
Nice work Folski, thank you.

He has a good team this year but I won't be getting carried away. Out of his stable stars Cyrname won't be going to Cheltenham. Politologue definitely won't be winning at Cheltenham and will probably be saved for Aintree. CDO has been flattered by a weak King George and did nothing LTO to enhance his credentials for the Gold Cup, plus still has question marks to answer over Cheltenham. Frodon will not be good enough to win a Gold Cup. Black Corton has been exposed at the top level. Pic D'Orhy could be the unknown enigma that does the business (hope so) and Topofthegame looks a standout chance in what's a competitive RSA.

Long story short, if I were a bookie i'd be firing out PN specials left and right this week following that 8 timer. People will pile into him having a great week, but I just don't see it looking at what he has and how he plans to campaign them
 
Top work Folski.

Always admired the longevity of his horses.
 
Top work Folski.

Great post from Charlie as well. spot on in my book. Lets see what market we can sell PN winners
 
Very interesting.

Would PN have had time to really capitalise on the flu jabs and lack of entries from other trainers?

This Saturday they said was a record for winners in a day (at 8) which surprised me a little... I would have thought he'd have done double figures across a few cards at some point...but suppose I've never given it much thought.


I love Paul Nicholls, but don't want to get carried away.... I can't see him usurping 'the big 3' at the festival...
 
Some good Sky specials with Nicholls...

10-1 Nichols and OBRIEN GET 6 WINNERS, OR 18-1 IF 3 EACH and 33-1 if O Bromheads gets 2

Have Done mostly Nicholls 3+....but these are good adds
 
TigerRolllllll said:
Some good Sky specials with Nicholls...

10-1 Nichols and OBRIEN GET 6 WINNERS, OR 18-1 IF 3 EACH and 33-1 if O Bromheads gets 2

Have Done mostly Nicholls 3+....but these are good adds
Click to expand...

I would air on a side of caution with PN. The bookies have done exactly what I thought they’d do in chucking out specials after that 8 timer, but his team does not stand up to scrutiny. Cyrname and Politilogue won’t go. Frodon will fall out the back of the TV in a gold cup. CDO has been over rated IMO - I don’t see him winning a GC. Topofthegame stands a very good chance in the RSA, and then you are effectively relying on handicaps for your winners.
 
...he might have a decent bumper horse.
 
From the handicap thread - 10 (83%) of his winners in the last decade have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. He concentrates on those races. A £10 level stake across these 4 races would have left you up £810. He record in these is phenominal so for those thinking he will have 3 or more winners, I would strongly suggest analysing these 4 races
 
charlie said:
From the handicap thread - 10 (83%) of his winners in the last decade have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual. He concentrates on those races. A £10 level stake across these 4 races would have left you up £810. He record in these is phenominal so for those thinking he will have 3 or more winners, I would strongly suggest analysing these 4 races
Click to expand...

10-1 Nichols and OBRIEN GET 6 WINNERS, OR 18-1 IF 3 EACH
Click to expand...

If that is the case I would rather do a patent or yankee in the races that charlie just said and hope I pick Nichols right ones, than taking 18s that he has three winners...
 
Great stats
..but are you saying don't back Paul at Chelte.? Or are we saying ignore the stats this year because he has a good army now ? I cant see this form following through to mid March so i would say let the punters pile on the Paul specials and the handicaps.
 
Also...what tool is everyone using for stats. ? What data can I get to start number crunching from my own data. Ie. Excel not RP interfaces
 
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