Oh god. I'd be hoping she's changed her mind now AJ is going here. If not I'm stuck with an awful bet. It's common sense to go for the stayers.
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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019
- Thread starter Marty973
- Start date
Oh god. I'd be hoping she's changed her mind now AJ is going here. If not I'm stuck with an awful bet. It's common sense to go for the stayers.
Quevega
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Scooby, when a trainer says end of story they mean end of story.
They'll probably go stayers
Muswell
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Nicholls won’t nominate a target until after Saturday I would expect if he goes close or wins Saturday supreme as the stiff finish would compare and doubt he wants to go after champ again
BigChaang
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The way he ran, you couldn't expect a different result over the same trip.
Good luck Muswell. Thanks for sharing
jono
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I know we have disagreed slightly when it comes to Supasundae and his CH claims. For me I think he could be competitive in a CH where there is only 1 stand out performer i.e the last 2 years with Buveur D'Air. His 2 mile record in open company, all grade 1 races is 1122. It was argued that good Spring ground (which he didn't get in the previous season and his 2 wins on soft) would stop any chance of that. Yet he's gone and finished runner up both times this season. He's of course not an out and out 2 miler by any means. He does get ridden, outpaced, pushed along at crucial moments over that trip yet still manages to finish right up there every single time. He's as solid a horse as you can get in grade 1 company. Never runs a bad race.
The problem now is not only has he got to deal with Buveur D'Air but now Apple's Jade is in the mix. And the unknown of Laurina. I'm very confident in saying I think he would have placed in both of the last year CH's, however the ground. And early on in the season he looked a strong EW contender...
But I actually agree now that Apple's Jade is coming here, who has beaten him 4 times now, trounced him last time out...along with BvD, the logical move would have been a step up to the Stayers. He's the same price (20/1) as when I put him forward as an EW play but the race is looking a different prospect now
Been listening to Kevin Blake on sky sports racing Racing Debate and Final Furlong podcast - he sounds like he will be putting Fakir D’oudaire in the Supreme. Keeps mentioning a horse with more experience will go well in this race. Also keeps mentioning stats of 4yr olds going well in the race so he’s obviously been researching and looking up how 4yos have historically done named the 2 4yo that have previously ran saying they came 2nd and 1st. Just shows a quick picture of what’s going on his head.
Just with what he’s coming out with is suggesting that they are going go for this - he says Cheltenham will water the hell out of the ground if no rain on first day and potentially the softest ground of the festival if it remains dry, and with Fakir’s pronounced knee action that would be great. So for me bar injury or niggles of course, he runs in the Supreme!
And he comments with regards to his action and softish ground
‘He’ll gallop the hell out of em’ !!
Just with what he’s coming out with is suggesting that they are going go for this - he says Cheltenham will water the hell out of the ground if no rain on first day and potentially the softest ground of the festival if it remains dry, and with Fakir’s pronounced knee action that would be great. So for me bar injury or niggles of course, he runs in the Supreme!
And he comments with regards to his action and softish ground
‘He’ll gallop the hell out of em’ !!
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Betfairs odds tell you everything. He's not just turned into a machine over night he's won a decent juvenile hurdle. And was scrubbed along to beat fast buck in open nov company. He was a rank outsider in decent races in France. And has done them for a Bit of quality and experiance. Novice open company is a whole different game.
If he diddnt run in the chelt juvenile trial he'd be minimum 50/1 for this. Anything at the top of the supreme market would hose up in the same race if they were allowed to run.
More than happy to get him beat in the supreme and open up another win/ place in the triumph.
You've tipped up both at different times ... Fakir for the trials weekend and Klassical Dream for the Supreme.
Are you convinced Klassical Dream could give Fakir 8lbs on their known form?
The 4yo ratings (as others have said too) is so inflated that KD is ahead for me ... buy I'm checking we're on the same page for now?
I agree with that. The way he won was eye catching but quality field is not up to what will be in the supreme obviously. Klassical Dream is my pick. But what I do like about Fakir is obviously is that improvement can be vast in 4yos, and obviously a nice weight allowance. I have watched some of his races back in France and he went out in front in Aut and went too quick up front - like his pace shown in the finish at Cork and his course prep run at chelt which opposition wise you can pick holes. Nothing bar the race at the weekend in the Supreme has blown me away bar Klassical Drwam battling for the win which I like to see in horses for the Supreme. Therefore seeing Fakir not in a battle yet does act as a minus but with the odds I’ve got I’m happy with that - odds for both I’m happy with. Fakir definitely too short now - Klassical Dream for me still a decent price.
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No doubt. Angels breath I still have at the top of the pecking order for the supreme in all honesty. But aramon/ klassical dream, would smash him up. Watch his race with fast buck, and discordantly. There 2 basic novices. The supreme levels a million miles up from that.
Imo fakir has absolutely no chance in the supreme. I couldn't care less what is rating is or his weight allowance, his ratings nonsense. Imo There is no way he wins. He's plain not good enough.
In the triumph should he run. If pic dosent make it, he's the one to beat and he'd make the placings unusual too as he'll force mistakes out of the ones behind. Would literally be who ever has a clean round and has enough under the bonnet to catch him. A mistake at that pace whether it's sir erec or adjali or who ever they've never gone that clip before. (Pic has tbf) That's the 1st time adjali has made a proper mistake and reached at one becasue he was forced into the error to go with him.
He's very good at his juvenile level going a huge clip in a juvenile race with a ton of experiance and being as fit as a flea. He'll force mistakes from the ones behind. But you can't do that to far better and stronger horses especially when you've got elexir de nutz etc. Alongside you and you've a past history of getting fired up going off like a scolded cat and weakening
They're making a bad mistake. I almost guarantee without hurdles working at home sir erec beats him easily. Fakir won that trial and they came 2nd and they've took that literally like rhats all there is and sir erec would hack up. But the problem is there was only adjali in that trial who's any good. Our power is no where near the top of the pecking order. Adjali reached at 3 out and diddnt finish his race. Where they've gone completely wrong. Is that if fakir doudaries isn't in that race. He's not going to make that same mistake. Then you've got the Nichols horse quel destin who's full of experiance and is one for a dog figh and is hard to pass. Pic d'orhy if he runs can go a furious gallop and keep going as you could see in the prix cambaraces grade 1. And then you've got the others who haven't ran like fusil raffles... If they genuinely think that so erec can just do what he did against the horses in the spring juvenile of a slow gallop and dictate and he's that much better than the rest. imo they'll be found wrong becasue there's far better horses than the likes of tiger tap tap. Gardens of babylon and surin.
Just to add to angels breath only jumping 4 hurdles. He's a point to point winner over 3 miles. And was bought as a store, He's obviously jumped plenty of fences previously and hurdles at home. On form alone you'd have to have the 2 from the Deloitte as leading the pack but angels breath I'd have him as the likely champ in recess until he runs shortly.
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Quevega
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I see Scooby's answered at length and in great detail.
but even if Fakir's rating is 10lb wrong, it'd still have a chance.
They don't think that. They think he will be better with a pace to aim at. He stays well, has a turn of foot and his jumping improved. Sir Erec will be very hard to beat.
They can think whatever they want. The proof will be in the pudding either way when he's under pressure to jump at pace with horses along side him. now pic is in work hopefully he will be ready and show him a clean pair if heels
Can't Catch Me
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Scooby. How on earth can you say 'they're making a bad mistake'? And they've gone completely wrong'?
Its quite clear they think Sir Erec is better than Fakir... and to be fair, they will know how the two compare better than anyone else. Whether there are better horses than the ones you mention or not, Sir Erec can do no more than beat whats in front of him. You've talked up the Spring Juvenile all season, and are now trying to talk it down.
The horse is, without question, the deserved fav for the race.
Its quite clear they think Sir Erec is better than Fakir... and to be fair, they will know how the two compare better than anyone else. Whether there are better horses than the ones you mention or not, Sir Erec can do no more than beat whats in front of him. You've talked up the Spring Juvenile all season, and are now trying to talk it down.
The horse is, without question, the deserved fav for the race.
I talked up the spring juvenile because the horse who was a NR i liked. You really think they've ran a race at home that would be the same as fakir taking on sir erec in the triumph. He's won an awful maiden and then aloud to dictate in the spring juvenile against far lesser horses than he'll encounter in the triumph.
You have your opinion I have mine. He's not the rightful fav at all. Pic d'orhy has by far the best form. Nrnb he should be fav. Then fakir doudaries and then sir erec. That's my 100% honest opinion on all form shown. You don't agree That's fine. Hopefully we'll get to see on the day. If fakir gets well beat in the supreme. And erec gets beat in the triumph.
Can't Catch Me
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Pic d'orhy isnt even sure to be running so that has to be factored into his price, as does the fact running in the Triumph hurdle on your UK debut isnt ideal. No way should he be fav, and he's a bigger winner for me than Sir Erec.
Sir Erec is a top class flat horse who has shown a propensity for the NH game.. he's just won one of the best trials for this race impressively. It seems daft to try and crab him.
If they both get beat, it wont prove they got it wrong.
Sir Erec is a top class flat horse who has shown a propensity for the NH game.. he's just won one of the best trials for this race impressively. It seems daft to try and crab him.
If they both get beat, it wont prove they got it wrong.