Stayers Hurdle 2019

[Quevega]

Penhill is 100% vulnerable if it's a strong pace this year.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Penhill is 100% vulnerable if it's a strong pace this year.

You mean like it was in the Albert Bartlett he won?

 

[Quevega]

You mean like it was in the Albert Bartlett he won?

it wasn't though was it

 

[ComplyOrDie]

it wasn't though was it

Well it wasn't slow, that's for sure. The Stayer's that same year was ran 0.1 seconds slower than the Albert Bartlett the following day, both on 'Good' ground, and the both races had pace makers in, Ami Desbois for the AB & Cole Harden for the Stayers.

He stayed plenty well enough, twice now, at the track, under different race conditions. I struggle for negatives against him myself, bar the obvious long layoff, but he had the same last season.

 

[Quevega]

Well it wasn't slow, that's for sure. The Stayer's that same year was ran 0.1 seconds slower than the Albert Bartlett the following day, both on 'Good' ground, and the both races had pace makers in, Ami Desbois for the AB & Cole Harden for the Stayers.

He stayed plenty well enough, twice now, at the track, under different race conditions. I struggle for negatives against him myself, bar the obvious long layoff, but he had the same last season.

No. it wasn't slow. I'll give you that.
It was average overall with an above average finishing speed.
His stayers win was a very quick finish off a very slow gallop.
I like the horse and backed him well last year, even though the Willie doubters were in full effect.
I'll almost certainly back him again nearer the day, he drifted last year and although he might not this year, cos people know he can do it, he could do if Willie is not going well. But if the pace is quicker early on I'll be worried for sure.

Obviously my namesake shows a prep run is not required if you're good enough. The lay off is of no issue, just if they go quicker earlier could potentially blunt his speed at the finish IMO.

 

[boopa]

Penhill was the 2nd fastest finisher on the new course at that festival. It wasn't a slow race but Penhill was held up.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Found some from the very helpful https://polzeathratings.wordpress.com/2017/03/

Below I've included the variance against Nicholls Canyon in the Stayers on Thursday, and Presenting Percy in the Pertemps on the same day. The variance with Nicholls Canyon looks to confirm to me the visual impression of the slow pace start-to-mid race, with Penhill really turning it on from 4 out. The variance with Presenting Percy, alongside the Racing Post comments below, show they were ridden remarkedly similarly bar Penhill powering home from the last. Although Penhill goes quicker in the initial stages, if we account for the 6lb weight difference with the "handicapper", we would likely see alignment or a reverse.

I'm presenting the data so we can all draw our own conclusions, but I still keep thinking how a horse that had stamina doubts for Luca Cumani on the flat is suddenly a thorough 3 miler, and I'm sure I'll be mulling that one right up until the day, given we won't get any further evidence


Penhill: Held up, headway when slightly hampered 2 out and forced wide, good progress entering straight between last 2, led approaching last, ran on strongly to draw clear final 100yds
Nicholls Canyon: Held up, good headway between last 2, close up disputing 2nd last, led run-in, stayed on strongly and in command towards finish (op 11/1)
Presenting Percy: Held up, headway approaching 2 out, led and wanted to lug left before last, a little disorganised after flight, stayed on strongly to go clear final 100yds (tchd 12/1 tchd 14/1 in a place)


Positive figures show the Penhill was slower per sectional

Var-STAYERS nb: Nicholls Canyon carries 5lb more
0.13
-0.19
0.81
2.21
1.23
0.52
-0.6
-0.02
-0.71
-1.29
-0.09
-0.66
Overall Penhill was 1.34s slower


Var-PERTEMPS nb: Presenting Percy carries 6lb more
0.56
-0.09
-0.26
-0.41
-0.05
0.92
0.07
0.13
-0.04
-0.8
-0.06
-1.14
Overall Penhill was 1.17s quicker

 

[The Beast]

Penhill is 100% vulnerable if it's a strong pace this year.

It wont matter what the pace this time imo ,Penhill wont get near Faugheen if as i antisipate the machine puts in performance like he did in Punchestown. He a different horse when he kept fresh and not raced after 1st January (think he won every time at festival when he hasnt raced in Jan Feb) ,and his ability still intact on evidence this year. Think he would of been very close to Apples Jade before falling ,One of my biggest bets of the week.

 

[Quevega]

It wont matter what the pace this time imo ,Penhill wont get near Faugheen if as i antisipate the machine puts in performance like he did in Punchestown. He a different horse when he kept fresh and not raced after 1st January (think he won every time at festival when he hasnt raced in Jan Feb) ,and his ability still intact on evidence this year. Think he would of been very close to Apples Jade before falling ,One of my biggest bets of the week.

bit too old for me,

 

[Innoko]

Tom Seagal seems to think Faugheen doesn't like Cheltenham?

Poor Ballymore and CH he won?

 

[charlie]

Tom Segal seems to think Faugheen doesn't like Cheltenham?

Poor Ballymore and CH he won?

He is an idiot but more to the point, he is an unprofitable tipster. Faugheen not liking Cheltenham, that's laughable.

 

[Innoko]

He is an idiot but more to the point, he is an unprofitable tipster. Faugheen not liking Cheltenham, that's laughable.

I don't follow his tips (or anyone's) but I do enjoy listening to him on a Podcast.

Unprofitable or not, he's very knowledgeable.... doesn't mean I agree with him on this though!

 

[Quevega]

Tom Seagal seems to think Faugheen doesn't like Cheltenham?

Poor Ballymore and CH he won?

He's right with regards those two races, they were pretty average in hindsight.
but not sure about the Cheltenham in general bit.

 

[The Beast]

He is an idiot but more to the point, he is an unprofitable tipster. Faugheen not liking Cheltenham, that's laughable.

Good old Tom , clueless.
Faugheen for me been running over wrong trip for years , can see Ruby popping him out and dictating pace. Only two I'm worried about are Samcro and Bacardys

 

[Kevloaf]

Faugheen's peak performance came in the Irish Champion Hurdle, so it's not a ridiculous comment, he's still absolutely top class and therefore won at Cheltenham anyway. You could (and people do) have said the same things about Hurricane Fly

 

[Hurricane fly]

I’d say Faugheen has been to Cheltenham twice with realistic expectations of a win and won, and won well.

Last year was a pipe dream imo, so no reason to say he doesn’t act at Cheltenham.

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't think anyone can or would say he doesn't 'act' at Cheltenham. That's unequivocal.

Could you say he's at his best?

Would have no impact on me backing him though

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Not defending TS, and I haven’t see his article, but there is a world of difference between the old and new course, does he not reference this ?

 

[boopa]

Cracking Smart not in the Galmoy, has no DRF entries. Reckon that's him done for the season now.

 

[Scooby91]

Cracking Smart not in the Galmoy, has no DRF entries. Reckon that's him done for the season now.

Could be. But You'd want some where quiter anyway after his last run. Wouldn't be suprised to see him in a late pertempts qualifier