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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Chris said:
We all know to win a Supreme a horse must jump quick in the main. I had a little look back at Angels Breath and felt he was a little slow over his 4 hurdles so with 8 hurdles he will lose more ground and Mister Fisher wasn't great either. I am currently at a loss as to what horse I can back or maybe we have not seen the winner yet, and I know this would be very unusual but its a unusual year.
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Mister Fisher was much better at Kempton to be fair to him.
 
Elixir pretty slick too. Form in the book as well. Ive 25/1 ew bet though I'm not sure if he's the winner. Other than that very little interest in this race.
 
doctorwu said:
Elixir pretty slick too. Form in the book as well. Ive 25/1 ew bet though I'm not sure if he's the winner. Other than that very little interest in this race.
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I’ve not backed him but it will take decent horses to get by him. I think he’ll be in the first four.
 
EDN jumping is fine not as good as Aramon's though.
 
boopa said:
EDN jumping is fine not as good as Aramon's though.
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Aramon 3rd run over hurdles
led, slight mistake at 2nd, not fluent at 3rd, joined 3 out, led before 2 out where headed, short of room and switched left before last where not fluent, kept on, not match winner

They're novices they're all learning on the job.
 
Aramons form is all on good ground and was easily beaten by Quick Grabhim so can't have him, I'm just wonder if Willie has something else and I know Scooby91 mentioned Blackbow before and he's had a setback. He destroyed Felix Desjy even though he did not win the race 17 lenghts ahead of him so based on Felix Desjy rating of 136 this puts him at 153 if he can jump however he has had a set back but does anyone know how bad the injury was.
 
Chris said:
Aramons form is all on good ground and was easily beaten by Quick Grabhim so can't have him, I'm just wonder if Willie has something else and I know Scooby91 mentioned Blackbow before and he's had a setback. He destroyed Felix Desjy even though he did not win the race 17 lenghts ahead of him so based on Felix Desjy rating of 136 this puts him at 153 if he can jump however he has had a set back but does anyone know how bad the injury was.
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Klassical dream.

Elixir d'anaiy
Then you've got blackbow/ tornado flyer.

Wouldn't be a fan of aramon myself he's had 5 runs this season. Quick grabim should have beat him the 1st time, he beat him the 2nd. Then hes just gone on and beat two average mares. I'll be dissapointed if the likes of klassical dream can't improve past him. If he's not past him already on form..


If you did want to chance on blackbow he's 170.0 on the machine. That likely tells a story in itself. However you never know.
 
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Chris said:
Aramons form is all on good ground and was easily beaten by Quick Grabhim so can't have him, I'm just wonder if Willie has something else and I know Scooby91 mentioned Blackbow before and he's had a setback. He destroyed Felix Desjy even though he did not win the race 17 lenghts ahead of him so based on Felix Desjy rating of 136 this puts him at 153 if he can jump however he has had a set back but does anyone know how bad the injury was.
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His best performance came on good to soft. Ruby schooled them in the Royal Bond. Quick Grabim wont be running anyway.
 
Scooby91 said:
Aramon 3rd run over hurdles
led, slight mistake at 2nd, not fluent at 3rd, joined 3 out, led before 2 out where headed, short of room and switched left before last where not fluent, kept on, not match winner

They're novices they're all learning on the job.
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You mean his 2nd run on soft ground. His 3rd run was foot perfect.
 
Chris said:
Aramons form is all on good ground and was easily beaten by Quick Grabhim so can't have him, I'm just wonder if Willie has something else and I know Scooby91 mentioned Blackbow before and he's had a setback. He destroyed Felix Desjy even though he did not win the race 17 lenghts ahead of him so based on Felix Desjy rating of 136 this puts him at 153 if he can jump however he has had a set back but does anyone know how bad the injury was.
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Felix Desjy beat Jetez 5L. Aramon ran faster than Jetez same course and distance carrying 19lbs more.
 
Kick in the Nutz for any Champagne Platinum backers today?

I had the e/w double as highlighted but that run today rules CP out for me for now... maybe a little harsh but Champagne Platinum wasn't exactly thrashing IDG and the form looks pretty useless now?
 
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Is this always true? Know ground was bad last year (but they are bound to make it softer this year)....Summerville Boy made a complete horlicks of 2nd last and still won.....Kalashnikov was more of a chaser in style and second.....Supreme seems to require a great engine as real stayer as they go so fast
 
Chris said:
We all know to win a Supreme a horse must jump quick in the main. I had a little look back at Angels Breath and felt he was a little slow over his 4 hurdles so with 8 hurdles he will lose more ground and Mister Fisher wasn't great either. I am currently at a loss as to what horse I can back or maybe we have not seen the winner yet, and I know this would be very unusual but its a unusual year.
Click to expand...

Is this always true? Know ground was bad last year (but they are bound to make it softer this year)....Summerville Boy made a complete horlicks of 2nd last and still won.....Kalashnikov was more of a chaser in style and second.....Supreme seems to require a great engine as real stayer as they go so fast
 
Kevloaf said:
Kick in the Nutz for any Champagne Platinum backers today?

I had the e/w double as highlighted but that run today rules CP out for me for now... maybe a little harsh but Champagne Platinum wasn't exactly thrashing IDG and the form looks pretty useless now?
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Agree with this. I have been trying to find an excuse to support him as there's not too much to get excited about in this race. However, it's really difficult to find any decent collateral form in his two races and his jumping is pretty sticky. Maybe we are being too harsh and I would love to see him come out and win well before Cheltenham. If he doesn't , there's no real basis for backing him.
 
Do you really think they will aim for soft on day 1? It will be good to soft weather permitting.
 
boopa said:
Do you really think they will aim for soft on day 1? It will be good to soft weather permitting.
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Depends on forecast I reckon, if Tuesday and Wednesday are set fair, I think we'll get nearer soft ground than good. Maybe a bit of soft in places. Too many died last year. And every f**ker in racing has been moaning about good to soft ground all season.

They'll probably call it good to soft though.
 
They died last year on soft ground. I'd argue soft is worse for young horses. They get tired and make mistakes. The ground needs to be safe not soft.
 
boopa said:
They died last year on soft ground. I'd argue soft is worse for young horses. They get tired and make mistakes. The ground needs to be safe not soft.
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Yep, I know, but they wouldn't want it to dry out too much and they;ve never watered on the tuesday night as far as i can remember.
And you're right, trainers worried about good ground injuring horses, so reluctant to run them this season, and when it's softer like the festival last year they over exert and have heart attacks. They should ban the sporty really. :devilish:
 
This race looks as trappy as last year. So here goes.

Elixir De Nutz: Very slick hurdler. Rock solid form, franked. Not sexy(if trained by hendo he'd be fav)could be a Champagne Fever?

Angels Breath: eye-catching victory. Only jumped 4 hurdles. Could be very smart, but we don't know yet.

Mister Fisher: Workmanlike victories. Scappy hurdler. Beat a horse who tried to run out of the track twice. The rest looked like no-hopers.

Aramon: Wrong profile? would be a long way behind Quick Grabam.

Vision D'Honneur: Pleasing victory. Slow time. He could be a big improver.

Felix Desjy: Big reputation. Beaten by everything. Change of tactics brought about an excellent performance in a very quick time. Interesting.

Battleoverdoyen: Would be of interest if he ran here. Not likely?

Klassical Dream: Won 20 runner hurdle beating a O'Brien horse that had been thumped before with Satoshi in 3rd? Not sure thats Supreme winning form.

Conclusion on this side of the pond: Elixir rock solid form. Angels Breath could be special. DRF should fill in a few gaps with the Irish horses.
 
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