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Arkle 2019

Kevloaf said:
If you had to pick from ones that have had a run..... what is the shortlist of just 3 for this race so far (this one won't cause much debate I wouldn't have thought!)

Lalor - Can question the ones he beat, but the most visually impressive we've seen so far
Mengli Khan - Only had Voix Du Reve to be more impressive than in Ireland, and was... hurdle form and better ground make him interesting
Kalashnikov - Not a fan myself but of the ones we've seen, impossible to say he's not one of the best 3?
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This would be my three as well

My two antepost we’re Mengli Khan (20/1) and Kalashnikov (8/1) so I’m delighted so far

Very tempted to back Lalor but may just do him in some multiples.
 
Have added Kalashnikov to my AP bets now, looks to have some engine even though hes faced absolutely nothing to date. Would like to see him tested before Cheltenham but dont know whether that will happen
 
Hard to fault that performance jumping was improved and won as he liked. Still wouldn't want to back him at as short as 4-1 now.
 
taylorch1990 said:
Hard to fault that performance jumping was improved and won as he liked. Still wouldn't want to back him at as short as 4-1 now.
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I'd expect nothing less from a 1/7 Arkle fav in a race like that.
 
bobbyvalentino said:
Did anyone watch that race? Thoughts on whether he might end up in the JLT?
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I'd say not. There was very early money (albeit not huge amounts) down for him on the exchanges for the Arkle, which made him the ante post favourite before any of the horses had run. This could well change of course, but from early movements I'd say no.
 
I watched it.
very nice jumping display. Travelled well. Won as he liked (as you would expect).
There was nothing in this race to support moving up for JLT.
As prep for the arkle (before moving up in grade) it was a nice stepping stone.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I'd say not. There was very early money (albeit not huge amounts) down for him on the exchanges for the Arkle, which made him the ante post favourite before any of the horses had run. This could well change of course, but from early movements I'd say no.
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I know Amy Murphy stated the Arkle as her pre-season target, but it's not like she has horses to avoid and should run him where he has the best chance of winning. I'd be looking for clues in his running style to suggest a switcheroo may occur, although I see the firm i'd want to go with has already put him in at 10/1 which isn't big enough to tempt me.

Sounds like the Wayward Lad is next so that should give us some real idea
 
Part of the reason he’s taken the route he’s gone so far is they are offering a bonus for any horse who wins the two races he’s won and goes on to win the Arkle. He’ll be going for the Arkle now.

Beautiful round of jumping today. Improved on last time out.
 
SeanRock said:
Part of the reason he’s taken the route he’s gone so far is they are offering a bonus for any horse who wins the two races he’s won and goes on to win the Arkle. He’ll be going for the Arkle now.

Beautiful round of jumping today. Improved on last time out.
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The bonus is for any race over fences, not just the arkle.
 
“I think the Arkle market is hotting up all the time – and come March, please God I hope they all turn up.

“Nothing would give me more pleasure than giving my dad a Cheltenham Festival winner.”
 
charlie said:
Lalor - https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...or-gets-henry-viii-entry-this-saturday/356167
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Be a good test over the railway fences if he does go.

A positive for me for Lalor over Kalashnikov is the jockey. Lalor's team are keen to have the Champion Jockey aboard, and Kalashnikov's connections are happy to stick with Quinlan. Not knocking him at all, but Richard Johnson is a positive if we get to the business end of the season compared to somebody without a festival win.
 
Kevloaf said:
Be a good test over the railway fences if he does go.

A positive for me for Lalor over Kalashnikov is the jockey. Lalor's team are keen to have the Champion Jockey aboard, and Kalashnikov's connections are happy to stick with Quinlan. Not knocking him at all, but Richard Johnson is a positive if we get to the business end of the season compared to somebody without a festival win.
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Good point. The other positive for Lalor over Kalashnikov is the way they are campaigning Lalor. They clearly think a lot of the horse to start him out over fences at Cheltenham, and then aim him at the grade 1 on Saturday. Im not saying Kalashnikov wouldn’t do well in better company, he can only beat what’s put in front of him, but Lalor will be gaining the type of experience that will stand him in good stead going into an arkle.
 
Last 10 Henry VIII winners - only one followed up in Arkle. Brave call from Lalor's connections imo.

2008 Araldur 4 Robert Thornton Alan King
2009 Somersby 5 Tony McCoy Henrietta Knight
no race 2010 [2]
2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2012 Captain Conan 5 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2013 Hinterland 5 Daryl Jacob Paul Nicholls
2014 Vibrato Valtat 5 Noel Fehily Paul Nicholls
2015 Ar Mad 5 Joshua Moore Gary Moore
2016 Altior 6 Noel Fehily Nicky Henderson
2017 Sceau Royal 5 Daryl Jacob Alan King
 
mayo said:
Last 10 Henry VIII winners - only one followed up in Arkle. Brave call from Lalor's connections imo.

2008 Araldur 4 Robert Thornton Alan King
2009 Somersby 5 Tony McCoy Henrietta Knight
no race 2010 [2]
2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2012 Captain Conan 5 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2013 Hinterland 5 Daryl Jacob Paul Nicholls
2014 Vibrato Valtat 5 Noel Fehily Paul Nicholls
2015 Ar Mad 5 Joshua Moore Gary Moore
2016 Altior 6 Noel Fehily Nicky Henderson
2017 Sceau Royal 5 Daryl Jacob Alan King
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Only 1 of the last 3 made it to chelt. It Makes no difference at all where you run
 
Looking at it the other way round :

2009 Forpadydeplasterer 7 Barry Geraghty Tom Cooper
2010 Sizing Europe 8 Andrew Lynch Henry de Bromhead
2011 Captain Chris 7 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs took in Sandown on 4th run over fences
2012 Sprinter Sacre 6 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson didnt run at Sandown in Novice year - won Tingle Creek on 6th run over fences
2013 Simonsig 7 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson ran at ascot and wayward lad - never ran at sandown
2014 Western Warhorse 6 Tom Scudamore David Pipe never ran at sandown
2015 Un de Sceaux 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2016 Douvan 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2017 Altior 7 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson won Henry VIII
2018 Footpad 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins

sandown fences a pretty big ask for a novice on his second run in my view.
 
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