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Yes, I’m starting a thread for the Foxhunters in October! This one isn’t going to win any prizes for originality but I wanted to discuss GILGAMBOA.
Earlier on I wrote a post in the Mares Novices thread to say I’ve just backed Daphne Du Clos, and that it’s the first time I’ll have placed a bet on that race so far out. Well similar comments apply to this one too so I thought it worthy of a thread-starter. I wouldn't usually dream of getting involved in this race so far in advance – but I’m happy to make an exception when I think circumstances dictate.
Considering connections, this has surely been the target for Gilgamboa since he was sent PTP-ing a year ago. The form of his last 2 races last season when beating Burning Ambition and Foxrock looks really classy in the context of this race and, if eligible, would likely have been a warm favourite for the race last season. I’m not much a follower of RPRs (so I’m happy to be criticised by those who know more) but I couldn't help but spot that he earned an RPR of 146 for both the aforementioned performances, which would be good enough to win 4 of the last 5 renewals of this – only falling short of On The Fringe’s runaway performance in 2015. He’s 10 (going on 11) which is no problem in this race – again, looking at the last 5 years, 10yo+ have occupied 16 of the top 25 places, in fact the first 3 in last year’s race were all aged 11 or 12. Obviously it’s impossible to know what the competition will look like (Paul Nicholls will inevitably have a few worthy challengers) but at 14/1 I’m happy to take the chance that Gilgamboa will line up as one of the classiest in the field. I see very few negatives.
SkyBet are the only bookie I’ve seen offering prices at the moment but rather than wait around I’ve taken some of the 14/1. This is one I can easily seeing being half that by Christmas.
Earlier on I wrote a post in the Mares Novices thread to say I’ve just backed Daphne Du Clos, and that it’s the first time I’ll have placed a bet on that race so far out. Well similar comments apply to this one too so I thought it worthy of a thread-starter. I wouldn't usually dream of getting involved in this race so far in advance – but I’m happy to make an exception when I think circumstances dictate.
Considering connections, this has surely been the target for Gilgamboa since he was sent PTP-ing a year ago. The form of his last 2 races last season when beating Burning Ambition and Foxrock looks really classy in the context of this race and, if eligible, would likely have been a warm favourite for the race last season. I’m not much a follower of RPRs (so I’m happy to be criticised by those who know more) but I couldn't help but spot that he earned an RPR of 146 for both the aforementioned performances, which would be good enough to win 4 of the last 5 renewals of this – only falling short of On The Fringe’s runaway performance in 2015. He’s 10 (going on 11) which is no problem in this race – again, looking at the last 5 years, 10yo+ have occupied 16 of the top 25 places, in fact the first 3 in last year’s race were all aged 11 or 12. Obviously it’s impossible to know what the competition will look like (Paul Nicholls will inevitably have a few worthy challengers) but at 14/1 I’m happy to take the chance that Gilgamboa will line up as one of the classiest in the field. I see very few negatives.
SkyBet are the only bookie I’ve seen offering prices at the moment but rather than wait around I’ve taken some of the 14/1. This is one I can easily seeing being half that by Christmas.
??
