2015 Grand National

[loveracing]

Whats the chances of Broadway Buffalo sneaking in?

He looks a huge price compared to Cause Of Causes "if" he gets in.

[Sefton]

Whats the chances of Broadway Buffalo sneaking in?

He looks a huge price compared to Cause Of Causes "if" he gets in.

Will probably make the reserve list but very unlikely to get a run.

[loveracing]

Will probably make the reserve list but very unlikely to get a run.

Ok thanks Sefton.

[Old Vic]

Whats the chances of Broadway Buffalo sneaking in?

He looks a huge price compared to Cause Of Causes "if" he gets in.

Probably just misses out imo. Not sure the list is accurate - the 10-0 all need to be ballotted or reassessed by Phil Smith ?

Bob Forde and Wyck Hill are two I havent heard much about but think everything else runs. Paul Townend to ride Rebeccas horse ? Denis O'regan and Dougie Costello to fill in another couple of the blanks ? I am still not sure that Ballycasey will actually run but do remememver Ruby saying on morning line on day of Ascot Chase that he could !

Presume katie walsh might be in running for Raz De Maree ride if make the cut ?

[Lester]

jonny burke on Raz

Hughes said: "I'm just hoping we get in at the moment and if he does, I wouldn't want the ground to be too good as h e's a soft-ground horse."

She added: "If he does run I've provisionally booked Johnny Burke to ride him, assuming the horse that beat him at Uttoxeter, Goonyella, doesn't get a run.

"He is below us in the list."

[mayo]

Ruby

SPRING HEELED

Don’t fancy him.

must be backed then

[mayo]

Final elimination order 10-2s not all in yet

40)	ROYALE KNIGHT	9	10-02	Chris Stedman & Robert Corsan	Dr Richard Newland/Will Kennedy
41)	BAILEYS CONCERTO (IRE)	9	10-02	United Five Racing & Andrew Sayer	Dianne Sayer/Brian Hughes
42)	DUKE OF LUCCA (IRE)	10	10-02	Lesley Field	Philip Hobbs/Micheal Nolan
43)	RAZ DE MAREE (FR)	10	10-01	James Swan	Sandra Hughes IRE
44)	THE PACKAGE	12	10-00	The Johnson Family	David Pipe
45)	BROADWAY BUFFALO (IRE)	7	10-00	Jo Tracey	David Pipe
46)	MAGGIO (FR)	10	10-00	Douglas Pryde & Jim Beaumont	Patrick Griffin IRE
47)	GUESS AGAIN (IRE)	10	10-00	Malcolm Denmark	Tony Martin IRE

[Thomas Shelby]

Are all of the above not running?

[Old Vic]

Are all of the above not running?

Up to 40 - royale knight gets in. Rest need something to drop out.

Denis ORegan confirmed for Al Co.

[Thomas Shelby]

I think Royale Knight can run a big race and Baileys Concerto will love the ground if he gets in.

[Old Vic]

I think Royale Knight can run a big race and Baileys Concerto will love the ground if he gets in.

I like the lot ! Bottom weights in a handicap

[Old Vic]

Ruby



must be backed then

Other reasons to back include the sire


On the other hand and stating the bleeding obvious Jims form is not even patchy.

[Morning Glory]

Jockey update

Paul Townend on Bob Ford if Oscar doesn't get in

Will Kennedy on Suoer Duty

David Casey on Corrin Wood

Brendan Powell on Royale Knight

ORegan on Al co

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Donn keen on the Carberrys

Cause Of Causes is the shortest-priced Irish-trained horse at present, and he is a player. Okay, so we know the stat about seven-year-olds, that no seven-year-old has won it since we weren’t sure who was going to win the War, but JP McManus’ horse is an unusual seven-year-old in that he has run 27 times in National Hunt races, 16 times over hurdles, 11 times over fences.

He had the class to win a Ladbroke Hurdle and to finish second in a Galway Hurdle and a Paddy Power Chase and a Kim Muir Chase, and he proved his stamina when he landed the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham four weeks ago. Also, he is trained by Gordon Elliott, who sent out Silver Birch to win the National in 2007 before he had trained a winner in Ireland. (He has trained a few now.)

So AP McCoy has passed Cause Of Causes over, but you always felt that the champ was going to ride Shutthefrontdoor in his National finale if Shutthefrontdoor was okay, and Elliott has secured the services of Paul Carberry (Tommy’s son, remember?), who is also a massive asset around Aintree. The Dynaformer gelding gets to race off a mark of 146, which is 6lb lower than his peak over hurdles, and that gives him a real chance.

First Lieutenant also has a real chance. He has plenty of weight, 11st 3lb is a little more than you would ideally want, but he is a top-class staying chaser who, despite his relatively high weight, is still a potentially well-handicapped horse for the National.

Third in a Hennessy Gold Cup and second in a Ryanair Chase and in two Lexus Chases, the Mouse Morris-trained gelding proved his liking for Aintree and for this time of year when he landed the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at the 2013 Grand National meeting, staying on well to get the better of Menorah, with subsequent dual King George winner Silviniaco Conti back in third.

The Gigginstown House horse has not won since then, but he has run some fine races in defeat, including when he finished second to Bobs Worth in the Lexus Chase last season, and when he finished second behind Boston Bob in the Punchestown Gold Cup last April.

He has been well beaten in his three chases this season, but he ran well for a long way over hurdles at Thurles last time when he had to make his own running, and he stuck on well after he had been passed. That run should have put him spot on for Saturday.

He has been trained all season for the National by Morris, a man who knows how to prepare one for a big day, and he will get to race off a handicap rating of 154, which is 16lb lower than his peak. As a 10-year-old he is the right age for the race, he will love the good ground, he will have the excellent Nina Carberry (Tommy’s daughter, Paul’s sister) for company, and he shapes like the extreme distance will suit. He is in reportedly in fine form, this is his time of year, and looks over-priced at 33/1.

[Yeehaa]

The least amount of chases previously contested by a Grand National winner in the past 26 years is ten, when Numbersixvalverde was successful in 2006.
Grand National favourite Shutthefrontdoor looks too inexperienced having raced just six times over fences, alhtough he has never fallen or unseated his rider and proved he could handle such a race when he won last season's Irish National. Numbersixvalverde was also the last Grand National winner to have never fallen or unseated his rider.
Stamina.
Every winner of the Grand National during the past 40 years had won over at least three miles. The entry criteria was changed in the autumn of 2012 whereby to qualify for the Grand National a horse had to have been placed in a chase over three miles or more.
Watch Graham Cunningham's video analysis of the newcomers set to take their chance at Aintree:

Previous Grand Nationals:
Only Amberleigh House has won the Grand National having finished in the first four in the previous season’s Grand National in the past for 31 years from 70 horses to try. There were 17 defending champions, and 52 horses placed second, third, or fourth who tried, with Teaforthree, unseating last year, the latest. Balthazar King, who was second last season, and Alvarado, who was fourth, bid to snap that sequence.
Eight of the last 14 winners had contested at least one race over the Grand National fences previously, with Pineau De Re falling in the 2013 Becher Chase.