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Donns Trends
( in fairness OV drumming on about the same stats)
Grand National trends
Despite the modifications to the course, the Aintree Grand National is still a strong trends race. Despite the easing of the fences – or perhaps even because of the easing of the fences – you have to look for an older horse who is towards the lower end of the handicap, and that seems to be more the case in recent years than it ever has been before.
Hedgehunter in 2005 broke through the 11st barrier that hadn’t been breached since Corbiere in 1983, and it is difficult to argue that Willie Mullins’ horse would not have won had he carried considerably more than the 11st 1lb that he had been allotted, such was the ease of his victory. Don’t Push It pushed the weight bar higher in 2010 when he won with 11st 5lb on his back, and Neptune Collonges’ 11st 6lb in 2012 was more weight than any other horse had carried to victory since Aintree legend Red Rum won his third National under 11st 8lb in 1977.
You can point to the fact that four of the last six National winners carried 11st or more, and you can conclude, therefore, that you need to focus on the top end of the handicap. Only 12 horses are set to carry 11st or more in the long handicap as things stand at present, so you can argue that it should pay to focus on just those 12.
However, dig a little deeper. The first four home in last year’s National all carried 10st 13lb or less, 10 of the first 11 home in 2013 carried 10st 11lb or less, the next four home after Neptune Collonges in 2012 carried 10st 12lb or less, and five of the first six home in 2011, including the winner Ballabriggs, carried 11st or less.
The age stat is even more compelling. The headline figures tell you that the younger horses are up against it. Bindaree in 2002 is still the last eight-year-old to win it, and he was just the third eight-year-old since Red Rum caught Crisp to win the first of his three in 1973. And don’t even start on seven-year-olds: Bogskar in 1940 is the last seven-year-old to win it.
Even nine-year-olds do not have a great recent record. The last five winners were 10 or 11, and nine of the last 12 winners were 10 or 11 or 12.
Last year, the first two home were 11 and 10, in 2013 the first two home were 11 and five of the first six were 11 or 12, and in 2012 five of the first seven home were 10 or older and one of them was 14, while in 2011 the first six home were all 10 or 11.
There is an angle to Rocky Creek, who ran so well last year as an eight-year-old, and who should do better this year as a nine-year-old, especially given that he can race off a 2lb lower mark for some reason. However, the percentage call is to side with horses aged 10 or older who don’t have highweights to carry. Horses like Soll and Chance Du Roy and Alvarado, those types of horses.
( in fairness OV drumming on about the same stats)
Grand National trends
Despite the modifications to the course, the Aintree Grand National is still a strong trends race. Despite the easing of the fences – or perhaps even because of the easing of the fences – you have to look for an older horse who is towards the lower end of the handicap, and that seems to be more the case in recent years than it ever has been before.
Hedgehunter in 2005 broke through the 11st barrier that hadn’t been breached since Corbiere in 1983, and it is difficult to argue that Willie Mullins’ horse would not have won had he carried considerably more than the 11st 1lb that he had been allotted, such was the ease of his victory. Don’t Push It pushed the weight bar higher in 2010 when he won with 11st 5lb on his back, and Neptune Collonges’ 11st 6lb in 2012 was more weight than any other horse had carried to victory since Aintree legend Red Rum won his third National under 11st 8lb in 1977.
You can point to the fact that four of the last six National winners carried 11st or more, and you can conclude, therefore, that you need to focus on the top end of the handicap. Only 12 horses are set to carry 11st or more in the long handicap as things stand at present, so you can argue that it should pay to focus on just those 12.
However, dig a little deeper. The first four home in last year’s National all carried 10st 13lb or less, 10 of the first 11 home in 2013 carried 10st 11lb or less, the next four home after Neptune Collonges in 2012 carried 10st 12lb or less, and five of the first six home in 2011, including the winner Ballabriggs, carried 11st or less.
The age stat is even more compelling. The headline figures tell you that the younger horses are up against it. Bindaree in 2002 is still the last eight-year-old to win it, and he was just the third eight-year-old since Red Rum caught Crisp to win the first of his three in 1973. And don’t even start on seven-year-olds: Bogskar in 1940 is the last seven-year-old to win it.
Even nine-year-olds do not have a great recent record. The last five winners were 10 or 11, and nine of the last 12 winners were 10 or 11 or 12.
Last year, the first two home were 11 and 10, in 2013 the first two home were 11 and five of the first six were 11 or 12, and in 2012 five of the first seven home were 10 or older and one of them was 14, while in 2011 the first six home were all 10 or 11.
There is an angle to Rocky Creek, who ran so well last year as an eight-year-old, and who should do better this year as a nine-year-old, especially given that he can race off a 2lb lower mark for some reason. However, the percentage call is to side with horses aged 10 or older who don’t have highweights to carry. Horses like Soll and Chance Du Roy and Alvarado, those types of horses.
dog with a bone
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