Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-1 (72) 75 j5-1-3 (-) 113 109
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
An old friend of this thread, three time flat winner Scholastic's first steps in the division were vengeful and erratic as she wiped out half of her rivals while running loose at Down Royal. Nevertheless, in her four subsequent outings, only Duffle Coat, Crassus, Longclaw and Quilixios finished ahead of her. Her penultimate outing in a Punchestown maiden saw her collect a deserved six-and-a-half length win from subsequent winners Jeff Kidder, Rock Chica and Varna Gold, and thrice placed Bigz Belief. Her jumping had progressed from her debut and was immaculate at Punchestown, but while it was still decent on her latest start, some mistakes crept into her round. She has not been seen over hurdles since being outclassed by Quilixios on the 13th of October and was last seen five days later when a close third in a Naas handicap, posting a career best in that sphere. Joseph O'Brien has a very respectable record in the discipline although while he has enjoyed success this side of the Irish Sea, including winning the Fred Winter with Band Of Outlaws, his tally with raiding juveniles is two from nineteen. Scholastic is still Ireland's leading juvenile filly but she would still be someway behind the best of these and although she has performed on soft, her better hurdles form has come on a sounder surface.

See The Eagle Fly chf Harry Whittington f8-0-2 (57) 62 j2-1-0 (-) 105 99
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-h}(0.71) 3/1 Cork Harbour 1st Selling Handicap Hurdle (88), Market Rasen 2003
Twice placed in eight starts on the flat for Thomas Cooper, See The Eagle Fly made a winning hurdles debut at Fontwell in early October, where she was able to take advantage of Balko Saint's inexperience despite a lack of willingness on her own part. The form received a boost as the runner-up finished third in the Grade Two at Cheltenham, and the underperforming Talking About You won at Ludlow. The third placed also managed to subsequently finish second at Fakenham. Due to her beaten rivals all having excuses, the form can not be taken too literally. Nevertheless, any win where the form has worked out well is worthy of respect which made See The Eagle Fly's performance at Leicester next time a disappointment. Pulling in the early stages, her jumping was not quite as clean as it had been on her debut. She appeared to be travelling strongly when taking the lead in the straight, but she then started to idle and weakened tamely from thereon. Given this is twice in as many races that she has been uncomfortable with the lead, the inclination is to attribute that performance to attitude rather than a lack of stamina or ability. See The Eagle Fly is capable of defying a penalty in ordinary company, although she may require deft handling in order to do so. However, while she comes into this race unpenalised, the quality of her opposition is such that there will be no room for hesitation. Furthermore, the good form enjoyed by his trainer in October has abandoned him for the time being which further tempers enthusiasm.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j7-2-3 (118) 111 116
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
With seven hurdles races already under her belt, Talking About You is the veteran of the division. Her early endeavours were marked by recalcitrance, particularly at the start of her races. Fortunately for connections, a ritual of mounting her at the last possible moment mitigated against her behaviour and a debut third at Newton Abbot led to a second at Sedgefield and culminated with a decisive win at Fontwell. However, a regression in form and behaviour on returns to Market Rasen and Fontwell prompted a break and a wind operation. There were signs of improvement on her return at Fakenham and the benefit of same was seen to its fullest effect at Ludlow last month. While she shied away from the tapes at the off , she asserted herself from the outset and led at a good gallop. Though she went left at the first, her jumping was always quick and even though she got in close at the fourth, third and second last flights, she did not lose any momentum in the process. Her task was made simpler when the favourite unseated after the second last, but he was not closing on the run to that flight. Furthermore, given how strongly she ran to the line, it would have taken a good horse to catch her. This marked a new career best for Talking About You and while her rise of eighteen pounds in the ratings might look harsh, it is broadly in keeping with what she achieved and the form has since been substantiated by the third and fourth each finishing second next time. The stable is in good form and Talking About You could pose a threat if in the right kind of mood, although there are definitive ground concerns to overcome and there is little reason for her to reverse places with Hiconic on previous outings.

Ten Thousand Stars chf Brian Ellison f7-1-1 (62) 69 j2-0-1 (-) 89 100
Toronado (Green Tune){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Le Vagabond 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2015
A winner at Newmarket for Adrian Nicholls as a two-year-old, Ten Thousand Stars jumped appallingly on her hurdling debut at Sedgefield back in August. Her repertoire of jumping moves included the bunny hop, the twist and jazz hooves before attempting to walk through, rather than jump, the last. Nevertheless, she was arguably (but not definitively) unlucky not to win the race as she was carried across the track by the winner. While only a small contest, first placed Historic Heart subsequently scored at Wetherby and the runner-up was Talking About You. Ten Thousand Stars jumped and travelled better next time at Perth, but was unable to match the form and though she looked a likely winner at two out, her effort was short lived and she would fade to finish an eight length fourth. An inconsistent type on the flat, she is probably better than that performance. Nevertheless, even a career best leaves her with plenty to find and she would be better suited by firmer ground.

Strong prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Megan
3. Army Of One
Feasible prospects
4. Bellatrixsa
5. Scholastic
6. Talking About You
7. Her Indoors
Moderate prospects
8. High Moor Flyer
9. See The Eagle Fly
10. Ten Thousand Stars
11. Sarceaux
Negligible prospects
12. Lightning Blue

Strong prospects
1. Park Lane Dancer

A decent price if even placed.

I remember when I was younger and less discerning when it came to partners. Sometimes, I would look at all my options, see that nothing looked like a particularly good thing for one reason or another, and simply settled for the safest conveyance regardless of intrinsic quality. Never did I not think in hindsight that I should have simply gone home and just had a wank instead.

Old habits die hard...

[Istabraq]

Outstanding stuff once again K, and a bonus insight into your youth too !
Broken record I know but thanks so much for these, they really are gems (not your historic conquests/wanking habits)...

[Kotkijet]

So I've managed to do a preview for tomorrow's race at Fontwell because it looks a nice little contest. However, for the foreseeable future, my contributions will likely be sporadic in nature. As much as I dread for the project to get too far away from me, personal circumstances are not entirely conducive to the dedication I would like to give to this thread. Hopefully when my situation stabilises, so too will my contributions. But in the meantime, I will only post what I can, when I can.

Tomorrow's race at Fontwell has been held each season since the mid nineties and has been won by some useful sorts including Serenus, Warne's Way and Verasi. In recent years, it has been a fairly average contest for the track with only 2011 winner Secret Edge going on to place in a Grade One. Nevertheless, this year's renewal features a pair of French hurdles imports, one who won impressively on his UK debut, and another who was a beaten favourite first time out. Fontwell's winning DIs of 1.15 median, 1.45 mean are just higher than average, but its extended distance can put additional emphasis when the ground is soft and its completion rate is an accordingly low 85.05%.

Triumph Odds
Nassalam 25/1
Hacker des Places 66/1

Hacker Des Places bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (132) 117 108
Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hacker-des-places

Third behind Paros and Jeu de Paume on his debut at Dieppe in May, Hacker des Places won at the second time of asking at Dax the following month. While Jeu de Paume is firmly established as one of the better juveniles in France, Paros was disappointing on his UK debut at Sandown and though the runner-up at Dax was a dual winner in minor company, the form has not worked out particularly well. Hacker des Places was green on his first two starts in France and that was also the case on his stable bow at Wincanton in October. He also jumped big in France but this was also mixed with some swift jumping which was not apparent at Wincanton and he was readily outpaced by his winning stablemate having never settled during the contest. The form of that contest has not really been tested but he was still clear of the remainder and is likely capable of better, particularly on this softer surface. Though the yard's imported hurdlers have a very good 32.89% strike rate first time, their second time rate is even higher at 35.59%. Of the five imported French Hurdlers beaten at odds-on first time for the yard to have reappeared that season, three have won including Qualando and Saphir du Rheu.

Nassalam chg Gary Moore j2-1-1 (-) 130 126
Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/nassalam

Gary Moore has won this race four times since 2004 with Alchemystic, Verasi, Darebin and Aiguille Rouge. However, while Verasi would develop into a useful sort, thirteen of the yard's juveniles would achieve higher seasonal RPRs including his runner here. A half-brother to Msassa, Nassalam finished runner-up on his sole start in France which came in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil last week. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132 although that is a falling mark. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut over this course and distance. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a good time and it will be interesting to see against a more substantial opponent in Hacker des Places.

Hipster Macalo bg Mrs Jane Williams J1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cokoriko (Sabrehill){u}(1.00) 2/2 Sacre Toi 1st Handicap Chase (113), Kelso 2013
By Cokoriko (Polirico, Coko Beach and Five O'Clock) and related to numerous winners on the damline, Hipster Macalo made appeal on breeding, ahead of a poor Uttoxeter contest in August and looked well beforehand. However, he started slowly, jumped slowly and would only lose ground. At one stage, he struggled to put distance between himself and a horse who was in the process of being pulled up. To be tailed off so early in such a poor race was an astonishingly bad debut. It would be impossible not to improve on that effort and of the yard's six previously unraced horses who finished sixth or worse on their debuts, one of them won and three were placed. It is difficult to enthuse over the available racecourse evidence, but his connections' record mean that he is not yet a forlorn hope.

Ranco bc David Pipe f9-2-3 (78.1) 69 J2-0-0 (-) 95 99
Makfi (Diesis){6-e}(1.13) 5/4 Native Gallery 3rd Handicap Hurdle (B,139), Punchestown 2013

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ranco

Ranco's last two outings in France saw him win a handicap off 76 and a claimer from which he was bought for €20,001 ahead of a nondescript hurdling debut at Southwell in early September. His jumping on that occasion went from sketchy to fair to sketchy and it was essentially the same last time at Wetherby with four sound jumps sandwiched between clumsy hurdling in the opening stages, and another error at the last. His twenty length seventh was a marked step up on his debut effort, but it still leaves him some way short of his flat form. Being an import of his mould in a yard of its habits, Ranco will likely improve again within a few more outings. However, he is still an entire and has enough to find with the leading contenders.

Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3) j3-0-0 (106) 96 104
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/sans-logique-1

A stablemate of Ranco, Sans Logique is another who was claimed from a French claimer, albeit for €5,000 less.
He ran a fair race on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield even if it did not match his French flat form but his latest three starts have been disappointing. His jumping was erratic on his penultimate start back at Sedgefield and while it was better on his latest outing at this course under a more patient ride, he was a tired horse from some way out. He has since been given a mark of 106 which is a little harsh based on the best of his hurdles efforts, but lenient on the best of his flat form. He has opted to eschew handicaps for the time being and this will be his first outing since a wind operation.

Zellerate bg Mark Gillard b1-0-0 (-) 39 J1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Gutaifan (Barathea){16-f}(1.50) 2/2 Mirzam 2nd Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Worcester 2018
Zellerate cost ?33,000 as a yearling, but he failed to make the racecourse for Amanda Perrett and was let go for just 1,500 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. He made his debut in an Exeter junior bumper where he started at 125/1 and beat just one of his eleven rivals home, trailling in by forty-seven lengths. His hurdling debut came at the same venue last month where he was pulled up at 300/1.

Eagle's First bf Neil Mulholland b1-0-0 (-) 52
Free Eagle (Mark Of Esteem){16-d}(0.39) 0.5 Harley Rebel 1st Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (125), Sandown 2016
Another to come from junior bumpers, Eagle's First was not unfancied at Warwick and had also attracted the services of Richard Johnson. However, after racing prominently, she weakened to beat just two of her rivals home and was beaten thirty-four lengths. Her profile is not discouraging however as her sire has already had two winners in the sphere in his first crop, half-brother Harley Rebel won three races in the division for the yard, and useful French handicap chaser Karibiksturm appears on the damline at 3/2. Neil Mulholland wins more than his fair share of races with juvenile hurdlers although neither of his winners came from bumpers which is a discipline with a poor first time out record over hurdles.

Strong prospects
1. Hacker des Places
Reasonable prospects
2. Nassalam
Feasible prospects
3. Hipster Macalo
4. Sans Logique
Moderate prospects
5. Eagle's First
6. Ranco
Negligible prospects
7. Zellerate

[Kevloaf]

Thanks Kotkijet

Hopefully you've inspired us all to keep on top of it, although we won't do it justice

[Kotkijet]

The withdrawal of Hacker des Places significantly alters the shape of the contest. Fortunately, the amendment to the prospects list is pretty straightforward.

Outstanding prospects
1. Nassalam
Feasible prospects
2. Hipster Macalo
3. Sans Logique
Moderate prospects
4. Eagle's First
5. Ranco
Negligible prospects
6. Zellerate

Thanks Kotkijet

Hopefully you've inspired us all to keep on top of it, although we won't do it justice

Cheers Kev. The Triumph Hurdle thread is very much thriving so it's mostly the bread and butter races that might lose some attention. As I say, I will still post as and when, but unless Santa gets me a nice cottage in Northumberland for chrimbo, there will be a slight shift in my priorities...

[BigChaang]

Excellent , as always Kotkijet ,
I'm going to back Nassalam on your recomendation ..

[Kotkijet]

Excellent , as always Kotkijet ,
I'm going to back Nassalam on your recomendation ..

You're a very brave man... See if you can't throw in a couple of savers or at least think about small stakes place only.

[BigChaang]

Yes , i saw the price and made it into a L.15..

[Kotkijet]

Behold, a dent has been made in the review backlog. Thirty-three of the ninety-five of the unravelled stitches have been put back into place which brings us up to December. The preview for tomorrow's race at Warwick has also been completed. My current situation is still sketchy at best and there will likely be another patch or two of inactivity coming soon, but hopefully I will be able to do the previews for the good races at Cheltenham and Doncaster if nothing else.

Peat Moss 27/11/2020 Doncaster 2m3?f Handicap Hurdle
Doncaster's handicap hurdle attracted two juveniles, with Peat Moss marginally the better handicapped of the pair. He jumped fine for most of the contest, with the only real mishap coming when he was squeezed out at the seventh. Briefly outpaced when turning for home, he plugged on up the straight without ever threatening the leaders. This was the best of his three runs in handicap company to date and he was suited by the step up in trip. Dropped another pound to 103 he is on a fair mark and should not be disgraced if putting his best foot forward. 103

Fraterculus 27/11/2020 Doncaster 2m3?f Handicap Hurdle
Making his handicap debut, Fraterculus was rated to the fullest extent of his abilities. Keen from the outset, he tracked the leader for most of the race, jumping well in the process. He was still prominent turning in but would fade as the race reached its conclusion and eventually faded back to midfield. The trip might be beyond his scope and he did himself no favours by running freely, although it was not a race in which the front runners fared well. His revised mark of 102 is more in keeping with his better form and he can be competitive off that kind of rating if settling better. 92

NEWCASTLE 28th November
Preview review
The strong prospect was beaten narrowly, the front three were clear of the feasible prospect who was in turn, clear of the remainder. The winner was straighter than anticipated but the margins were narrow so as not to require much revision.

Race review
While it was perhaps not the strongest renewal of the contest, it was still an above average one in the scope of the division as a whole. The pace was sound and the time is respectable in comparison to the one posted by the Champion Hurdler later on the card. The right horses filled the right positions and while the jumping was not always flawless from the principals, but it was still of a good standard. Overall, the form looks reliable.

Son Of Red improved with each of his three outings on the flat this year and he continued that trajectory with another career best here. Tracking the leader throughout, he was fairly keen for the bulk of the contest. Nevertheless, while this gave him a tendency to wander into his early hurdles, the only mechanical errors he made came when under pressure in the straight as he skewed at three out, and got in close to the last two flights. These mistakes had only a moderate impact on his momentum and he got the best of a battle after the last to eventually grind down the leader to win by a neck. He largely jumped economically for a newcomer and the real concern going forward is that he will be want to settle better if he is to progress from this level. Otherwise, he has a decent base on which to build, is not one to shirk a battle and though he has yet to show a preference for going, he appears to act on any type. He currently holds an entry for the Summit Hurdle and it will be interesting to see how he fares should he take his place. 117

State Crown had raced prominently on the flat was sent straight into the lead here. While he was somewhat keen, he was not fighting for his head and settled reasonable well after passing the stands. Though not especially tidy at the first, the only flaws in his jumping through the back were steadying slightly on the approach to a couple which was likely a lack of concentration than any reticence. He clipped the top of three out and rather reached at the penultimate flight, but his jump at the last was as good as any seen in the race. State Crown was headed briefly after the last but showed good resilience to reclaim the lead and was only worn down close to the line. A marked improvement on his Ludlow outing, which itself is working out well, he at least matched the best of his flat form here. Perhaps he may have had enough in reserve to hold on had he settled slightly better but otherwise, it was a solid performance and he is capable of winning a race of his own. 117

Castel Gandolfo began his race with a terribly untidy leap at the first and was big and slow at the next. However, the remainder of his round was error free which is an improvement on his jumping at Musselburgh. He was always racing close to the lead but while he was not discernibly outpaced or outstayed, he was always a couple of lengths short of the front two. Slightly keen, but no worse than his main rivals, he matched his debut outing and is another who can win an ordinary contest. 114

Sir Charles Punch had a habit of pulling hard on the flat, but the introduction of hurdles rather tempered his boistrousness. Beginning his round with a hesitant hop, he got in close to the next two, wandered into the fourth, steadied into the fifth, and after a couple of acceptable jumps, clipped the top of the penultimate flight. Though he attempted to keep tabs on the leaders, he was readily outpaced after three out and was ten lengths behind the third at the line. Nevertheless, he was still upwards of twenty lengths clear of the remainder and while he did not match the best of his flat form, the performance was in keeping with his more recent efforts. Sir Charles Punch was not disgraced and there is scope for improvement with more confident hurdling. 105

I'm Easy achieved little in three outings on the flat and completely lacked fluency on his hurdles debut at Southwell. Save for a slow jump at the first, his jumping was fine here but he never got out of midfield and was beaten thirty-four lengths in the end. He has a shred of ability but he looks unlikely to make any impact in open company at this stage. 83

My Macho Man won at this venue on his flat debut at the end of February for John Quinn, but left that yard for 7,000 guineas ahead of his jumps bow here. His jumping was not tidy in the early stages, but he was still able to get from one side to another quickly enough. However, after getting hampered on the approach to the fourth, he made an error which did cost him momentum and though he regained ground, he began to toil in the straight. It was not a debut outing without promise, but he would need to be more confident before he can replicate his flat ability. 83

Temper Trap won twice on the flat but did not achieve a great deal in the process. He was beaten by thirty-one lengths on his hurdling debut at Catterick but it was not a run without promise and only lost his position in the straight due to being keen early. He was just as keen here but was not as quick getting away from his hurdles this time around and would eventually finish tailed off. 66

Station To Station was having his first run in over a year, and his first start for a trainer with a respectable record in the sphere. He jumped fine for the first three hurdles, but completely missed the fourth and almost fell in the process. He was reasonably fluent from thereon but he never left the rear of the field and eventually finished tired and tailed off. 64

LEICESTER 29th November
Preview review
The winner was given negligible prospects although this was a general consensus given that he had twice been beaten in sellers on either code. His hurdling debut at the track was not abhorrent and his best flat form gave him feasible prospects due to the quality of the race, but he still appeared to have plenty to find. The top prospect was too keen for his own good but the quality of his flat form was questionable in any case. Sure I'm Your Man disappointed but he was revealed to have bled. Opine ran as well as expected and Galidermes ran into a place despite predictably poor jumping.

Race review
This did not look like a compelling affair beforehand and that perception was not improved by a surprise winner who was previously tailed off in a course and distance seller. Nevertheless, those who disappointed had patchy profiles in any case and the front two pulled clear of the strung out remainder. The runner-up looked to shirk the battle but there were no hard luck stories in behind so the superiority of the front two is acceptable on the day. The pace was solid and the winning time was slightly quicker than that of the seller, and less than a second slower than the Class 4 handicap later on the card. The overall quality of the race looks poor and given the inconsistent profiles and performances, would not look particularly reliable in the long term.

Blue Slate brought a flat rating of 47 into his hurdles debut over this course and distance a fortnight earlier where he was beaten over thirty lengths in a seller. He jumped reasonably on that occasion and was still in contention at the top of the long straight. However, his ability to win this type of race was not sufficiently evident and his win here marks a new career best. He travelled well to move into a prominent position entering the back straight and his jumping, while not flawless, helped him maintain his position. He jumped into the lead at three out and though his only mistake at the last saw him briefly headed, he quickly regained the lead and was always holding the runner-up despite hanging his head on the run-in. Blue Slate is clearly a better hurdler than a flat horse but the form is not of a high quality and it remains to be seen if he can duplicate this effort. 100

Opine failed to place in eight runs on the flat for Michael Bell, but he overcame some novicey jumping to finish second on his first start for Jonjo O'Neill at Huntingdon. Though better in the middle portion of his next outing at Lingfield, he took a tired tumble at the last when beaten. His jumping was still untidy here but it was still his best round to date and after travelling well to the last, briefly went into the lead. However, despite trading as low as 1.02 in running, he made little attempt to put the race to bed and finished a length down on the winner. Prone to inconsistency on the flat, Opine is also looking unreliable over hurdles and while he once again surpassed his flat form, he does not look an obvious winner in the near future. 99

Galidermes was a triple winner on the flat in the French provinces, but he made mistakes at most hurdles on his jumps debut at Warwick before finishing tailed off. He also made mistakes at every hurdle here, either jumping too big or too close, and being slow to get away from the later obstacles. He finished closer in what was a much poorer contest, albeit with over fifteen lengths between himself and the winner. Nevertheless, he still had twenty lengths in hand over his remaining rivals. Still a run short of obtaining a mark, he might be able to improve considerably with better jumping. However, for the time being, he has only achieved moderate form and looks in need of further experience. 85

Sergeant was formerly trained in Germany by Christian Von Der Recke, who supplied connections with the useful Mondul who won this race in 2004. Though twice a winner in the fatherland, the standard of form looked no better than average by any measure. He was keen early and did not approach the first two with much conviction. Nonetheless, apart from reaching at the fourth and getting close to the sixth, he was otherwise tidy enough. Held up in the rear, he made some headway entering the straight, but he was unable to sustain a challenge and weakened quite quickly. He reportedly lost a shoe during the contest and a better assessment may be made after another run. 65

Goodbye Grass was last of twelve at 150/1 on his sole flat start in early September and was not fancied to do any better here. His pedigree is unremarkable without being hopeless and he jumped reasonably well for the most part. He was baulked going over the fifth and his hurdling took on a tired character in the straight before finishing tailed off. 54

Bentley Wood had bits and pieces of form to show for a six race career on the flat, but despite jumping reasonably to begin with at Uttoxeter, he finished absolutely tailed off. Wind surgery and a five week break saw no improvement as he pulled hard and his jumping was poor from the start. 51

You Owe Me jumped well in the lead from the outset and was still in contention at three out. However, he dropped away quickly before being allowed to complete in his own time. Another having his first run following wind surgery, looked to be running his best race over hurdles to date before blowing up. His rating of 73 is the second lowest given to any juvenile hurdler thus far, but while it still exceeds his performances at face value, he may still be able to work with it if finding a weak enough race. 51

African Sun was beaten in three handicaps during the summer, the latest occasion seeing him tailed off on a mark of 46. Changing hands for just 1,000 guineas, he completely lacked fluency in the rear of the field and was detached before half-way. He reportedly lost a shoe. 0

Glass Of Bubbles ran away with a seller at this venue on her latest flat outing, but was very disappointing on her hurdling debut at Fakenham where she was slow and untidy before weakening quickly some way from home. After a slow jump at the first, she put in a better round here. However, following a tired jump three from home, she quickly lost her position and was pulled up before the last. 0

Sure I'm Your Man was slightly reticent on his hurdling debut at Bangor, but he still finished a creditable third and was backed into favouritism here. However, he was even more cautious with a stronger gallop and after losing touch down the back straight, his steady jumping became tired jumping. Pulled up before the last, he was found to have bled from the nose. 0

[Kotkijet]

FAIRYHOUSE 29th November
Preview review
All of the horses finished according to the prospects list. Zanahiyr won with greater ease than anticipated but there is little scope for reflection in hindsight.

Race review
The race looked as strong as any seen this side of Christmas and while Druid's Altar went off too quickly, the quality of the first two should not be understated. The pace was strong and the winning time was over ten seconds quicker than the Royal Bond, and six seconds quicker than the Grade A handicap hurdle (plus one hurdle) and nearly five seconds quicker than the concluding bumper. The analysis by Simon Rowlands does a fine job of elucidating the quality of this performance and while it would be fanciful to imagine that Zanahiyr is a near fifty length superior horse to Ballyadam, it was still a very impressive exhibition. The front two both jumped extremely well and were a long way clear of the remainder.

Zanahiyr earned a rating of 80 as an unexposed improver on the flat for Michael Halford, and being a son of Nathaniel from the family of numerous good jumpers, he is bred to do well in this sphere. He made a very pleasing debut over hurdles at Ballinrobe where his jumping was decent save for a few minor errors. While the runner-up rather let the form down next time at Punchestown, the standard of his performance still warranted respect on his step into graded company. Settling behind the clear leader, Zanahiyr closed to within a length with six furlongs left to run and sharing the lead on the run in and had cruised into a definitive lead by the penultimate flight. Shaken up on the approach to the last, he quickly built a lead of over a dozen lengths which he would maintain to the line. While the word perfect should be avoided when describing racehorses, apart from very slightly brushing the top of two out, Zanahiyr jumped about as well as is possible for a juvenile hurdler. If looking for reasons to downplay this performance, the capitulation of Druid's Altar left Zanahiyr with only one rival to beat and that was an import having his first outing for four months. Furthermore, given the exceptional nature of this performance, it is possible that conditions were absolutely optimal for him on this occasion. Nevertheless, he thoroughly deserves his place at the head of the Triumph Hurdle market and while 4/1 is short for any juvenile hurdler before Boxing Day, it can be noted that the last four favourites to have single digit prices at this stage were Peace And Co, Defi du Seuil, Apples Shakira and Goshen. Whatever happens between now and March, it will take a very good horse to lower his colours in this kind of form. 143

Saint Sam was a well-bred, dual winner in France making his stable debut for a yard which used this race to introduce Bapaume and Kalkir in recent seasons. His form in France ties in favourably with that shown by Nassalam and he was fancied to make a winning start in Ireland. Racing alongside Zanahiyr throughout the race, his jumping was very good and the only errors he made were clipping the top of the second and the last while getting in close to the sixth. He had the measure of Druid's Altar as easily as Zanahiyr and traded as low as 1.47 in-running after briefly looking to be travelling the better of the pair. However, it soon became apparent that he was no match for the winner on the day, and plugged on to finish fourteen lengths in arrears. Nevertheless, this was a very pleasing first run for Willie Mullins and with experience under his belt and fitness on his side, there is no reason why Saint Sam can not play his part among the leading juveniles in the division. 133

Druid's Altar had flat form which was only two degrees of separation from the Breeders' Cup mile winner, and he made a very good impression on his hurdling debut at Puchestown in testing conditions a fortnight earlier. His jumping was not always fluent on that occasion and it was the same story here as he was untidy at most of his obstacles. He set a pace which he was unable to maintain and after getting caught by the front two with six furlongs to run, he was left behind by that pair two furlongs later. Though he was able to hold onto third, he did so only by a neck from a filly who was over forty lengths behind him at Punchestown. This was not his true showing and he can return to something like his best under a more patient ride next time. 95

Rock Chica achieved little in six starts on the flat, but after a promising debut at Punchestown in late September, she romped away with a fillies' maiden at Tipperary the following month. She was outclassed behind Druid's Altar next time and while she almost caught that rival here, she was never in contention. Her jumping was reasonable save for getting low at the fifth and steadying at the sixth, but she needs a drop in class if she is to be competitive again. 88

Wyett Earp slightly hampered Rock Chica at the first by jumping left, but while he lacked fluency and was tired with a mile left to run, he was able to collect €550 without making a nuisance of himself. 0

FAKENHAM 30th November
Preview review
The second and third in the prospects lists filled the "correct" positions. However, that was where the accuracy ended as the top prospect flopped, and the winner was given negligible prospects. What makes this baffling is that the winner pulled hard for much of the contest and jumped abysmally. While his Kempton outing showed that he could set a good gallop, it also raised concerns over his stamina which were exacerbated by the softened ground. Can't Stop Now completed a double on the card for his trainer and while he was not the subject of strong support in the market, his success may be put down to him being in good form, and his rivals underperforming to one degree or another. The top prospect was in the process of running a solid race and had traded as low as 1.31 in-running. He was hampered when closing on the leader at two out and while it may be a stretch to say that this incident cost him the race, his subsequent sulking could be an explanation.

Race review
This did not look a strong contest beforehand and the withdrawal of Hacker des Places and the surprise winner consolidated this impression. While a strong pace was set, the winning time was over three seconds slower than the three runner maiden hurdle earlier on the card. Even accounting for the deteriorating ground, the winner of that race was a hurdling debutant carrying ten pounds more than Can't Stop Now. The winner's jumping was poor and the runner-up was not as fluent as last time. While the field finished strung out and the placed horses were entitled to finish as they did, it does not look like the most reliable race from a form perspective.

Can't Stop Now was twice placed on the flat and earned a rating of 73 before leaving Clive Cox for 7,000 guineas in July. While he ran freely on his hurdling debut at Kempton, his novicey jumping settled down as the race progressed and while he faded to finish fifteen lengths third, it was not an effort without promise. However, he deprived himself of the opportunity to supplement that effort next time at Ludlow when virtually refusing to race and pulling up shortly after the start. The rain softened conditions appeared to play against his strengths here and though he led from the outset, his price nearly doubled in-running as he pulled hard for most of the contest. His jumping was also poor as along with almost falling at the sixth, he got in very close to the first and veered badly right at two out. He also wandered into most of his hurdles including the last where he left his hind legs in the flight. Despite all of this, he finished the race better than any of his rivals and was eight lengths clear at the line. Giving Starspangledbanner his first jumps winner, everything about this performance is so anomalous that it can not be taken at face value. Even if the best of his flat form and his Kempton experience gave him a chance in this contest, he pulled so hard and jumped so poorly that it is difficult to imagine that his superiority over all of his opponents is to be trusted. He may well duplicate and exceed this performance in the future, but until that happens, scepticism would be the prevailing sentiment. 106

Grouseman was rated just 50 after seven runs on the flat. However, his better form was on a sound surface and it was on good ground that he posted two progressive efforts over hurdles. He jumped reasonably on his jumps bow at Warwick and was better again when finding only Gold Desert too strong in the closing stages at Catterick. The going was forecast to be good but the ground deteriorated to soft and Grouseman's jumping suffered as he got in close to all but one of his hurdles from the third onwards. Though eight lengths clear of the third, this was still a regression on his Catterick performance and while he has dropped from 118 to 116, this mark still exceeds his achievements. He will be of more interest on better ground in a very ordinary non-handicap. 98

Tamaris decisively won a Wolverhampton handicap off 64 on his final start for Roger Charlton before joining his new connections for 60,000 guineas. Well supported ahead of his debut at Huntingdon, he was a creditable third despite some awkward jumping. While big at the first and steady at the third, his jumping was better here but he was unable to match his debut performance, finishing sixteen lengths behind the winner. He has since been gelded which, along with a return to a sounder surface, may instil the improvement he will need to find if he is to match his rating of 108. 90

Eventful was bought for ?11,000 after finishing second in a claimer and has joined a yard with a good record in the division. She jumped well for the most part but while she made some headway on the final circuit, was unable to make any impression in the closing stages. Though beaten by nearly twenty lengths, she was not entirely disgraced on her first outing for new connections but she will still need to improve before she can be competitive. 80

The Cincinnati Kid represented a yard which had recently broke a losing run in the division and this 75 rated flat winner was backed into favouritism to make a winning hurdling debut. He was not altogether convincing with his jumping as he got in close to the second, clipped the top of the fourth and was untidy at the seventh. Nevertheless, while he was not travelling brilliantly, he was still closing on the leader when he was hampered by the same horse at two out. Though this probably did not have a dramatic impact on his performance, it did coincide with his efforts truncating and he was passed by two rivals prior to the finish. His better flat form had come on the all-weather, and his being an entire may also have been detrimental to his performance. Although his flat ability suggests he can fare well in this discipline, he emerges from this contest with something to prove. 82

Jersey Grey had a battling win at Lingfield from a subsequent winner sandwiched between being outclassed at Chepstow and Cheltenham. He returned to calmer waters under a penalty but was already getting pushed along with a circuit to run before losing touch after a mistake three out. The ground will not have been a problem as he won on soft at Lingfield, and given he was in trouble a long way from home, this can be marked down as a straightforward underperformance. His rating of 106 is not excessively harsh and he may fare better in that discipline if returning to his best. 87

Jack Ryan won on heavy ground over seven furlongs at Yarmouth in October, and did not jump badly on his hurdling debut at Musselburgh early in the month. However, he had been below par in two outings on the all-weather and while his jumping was fine once again, he was tired within the final half-mile and pulled up before the last. 0

Nachtstern was moderate on the flat in Germany, but is a half-brother to the useful juvenile Nordano and represents a stable with a good record in the division. However, after reaching for the first, he got in too close to the second, and was big and slow over the next couple of flights. While his jumping settled down, so too did his speed and he was another who pulled up tired. The stable's first time out rate is relatively moderate so it would not be unreasonable to expect some improvement. 0

[Kotkijet]

Tomorrow's juvenile hurdle at Warwick has been held nine times in the past eleven years. While the course has produced decent sorts over the years, this particular contest is below par (average seasonal RPRs of winners being 112), and its being a maiden over the past couple of seasons has done nothing for its quality. Nevertheless, while tomorrow's race may not have much useful hurdling form, it does feature some potentially interesting newcomers including the winner of a French bumper, a pair of ex-Richard Fahey flat horses, and a well-related racecourse debutant. Furthermore, every yard represented has an above average record in the division so there is some depth in this regard. Warwick's average winner's DIs of 1.40 median, 1.56 mean are the fifth highest in Great Britain and are also higher than those of the average runner. The clear round rate of 94.84% is one of the lowest in the country so pace a good aptitude and the ability to handle the forecast soft ground will be useful assets.

Alberic bg Nick Williams j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Poliglote (Kahyasi){2-c}(0.89) 1/0 Khayance 1st 3YO Chase, Enghien 2011
By Poliglote and out of a winning chaser from the family of Chance du Roy (3/1), Mater Matuta (4/2) and Taranis (4/3), Alberic is bred to make a jumper. The conditions were likely too sharp for him on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon but he was still disappointing as he jumped poorly before pulling up three from home. The stable is in better form and the softer ground may suit better but he would still have questions to answer.

Ambassador bg Dan Skelton f5-0-2 (61) 66
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){19}(1.00) 2/2 Fin Vin De Leu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2010
Richard Fahey has supplied 34 juvenile hurdlers since the 2008/09 season and eight have been winners giving him a fair 23.53% winners to runners rate. Most have been no better than average with only Chief Justice and Come On Sunshine recording RPRs exceeding 115. Nevertheless, while only 42.86% improved for the switch between codes, this is still in the top third of sources with ten or more qualifiers. Two ex-inmates of Fahey's are declared for this contest, the first being five race maiden Ambassador who fetched ?16,000 at the Goffs UK Silver sale. Beaten six lengths or more in three starts as a two-year-old, he contested a pair of handicaps this October with his better effort coming last time when just over six lengths third in a fourteen furlong Catterick contest on soft ground. Running off a mark of 63, he plugged on at one pace to grab third near the line behind a subsequent maiden hurdle winner, and ahead of a horse who was subsequently third off a five pound lower rating. While he is related to fair types in Fin Vin De Leu and Last Shadow at 2/2, the bulk of relatives who went hurdling have been disappointing and sire Invincible Spirit has an improvement rate of just 29.41% and a strike rate of 6.85%. Trainer Dan Skelton has a winner and a runner-up from five runners in this contest and three of his ten juveniles rated lower than 65 on the flat have been successful in the division.

Balkardy chg Evan Williams Unraced
Balko (Limnos){1-e}(0.50) 2/2 Roll On Has 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2014
The yards of Nick and Jane Williams have a good record with their previously unraced juveniles. However, the same can not be said of Evan Williams who since 2008/09, has just one winner of this sort from eighteen, coming when Takelli took a Stratford Claimer on his second start back in June 2009. Nevertheless, not many will have been as well bred as Balkardy. A son of Balko (Blacko, Gitaine du Berlais, Ubaltique), his granddam was a dual winning juvenile in France and is the matriarch of a line which includes Royale Cazoumaille (fourth in the 2005 Grand Prix d'Automne and dam of Venetia Williams' promising Royale Pagaille), Royal Satarania (first in the 2015 Prix Murat), Inoxe Royale (winner of a four year old Listed Chase) and top French juvenile hurdler Roll On Has. The yard is amongst the winners but his clear round rate of 94.70% is lower than average and unraced horses of any nature have a strike rate of just 2%. Likeable though Balkardy's pedigree may be, he will benefit from experience.

Dreaming Blue bg Anthony Honeyball f7-1-0 (72) 77
Showcasing (Duke Of Marmalade){1-l}(0.78) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Handicap Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
The second of the Musley Bank graduates, Dreaming Blue was the more expensive of the pair, fetching 60,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale to join Anthony Honeyball. Progressive during his first six outings, Dreaming Blue got off the mark at the seventh time of asking when last seen in a mile-and-a-half Wolverhampton handicap back in August. Running in second time cheekpieces off a mark of 68, greenness prevented him from passing his rival for much of the straight, but was able to sort himself out in the final half-furlong and ran on to win by a length at the line. The runner-up has not advertised the form, but the third won a handicap next time and recent Sandown winner Elham Valley was nearly thirteen lengths behind in fifth. Anthony Honeyball has had eight juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09 with two of them being winners, one of those scoring first time out. In nineteen runs between them, none have registered a fall, unseat or refusal. Showcasing is better known as a sire of sprinters, but two of his nine juvenile hurdlers have been winners - albeit without recording triple digit RPRs. The damline suggests that Dreaming Blue should get the trip, although the closest jumpers are three generations away. Dreaming Blue has a fair enough profile overall and is entitled to respect in this company, although he has not ran since August and with flat horses rated between 70 and 74 having a slightly below average strike rate of 9.64%, he is another who may benefit for experience.

Galidermes bg Charlie Mann f13-3-3 FrF (66) 38 j2-0-1 (-) 90 85
Hunter's Light (Galileo){6-a}(0.58) 2/1 Theos Quercus 1st 4yo Hurdle, Dieppe 2001
Galidermes was a triple winner on the flat in the French provinces, and left Jo?l Boisnard for €6,001 after his latest win. He made mistakes at most hurdles on his jumps debut at this venue behind Adagio before finishing tailed off. He also made mistakes at every hurdle last time at Leicester, either jumping too big or too close, and being slow to get away from the later obstacles. He finished closer in what was a much poorer contest, albeit with over fifteen lengths between himself and the winner. Nevertheless, he still had twenty lengths in hand over his remaining rivals. Still a run short of obtaining a mark, he might be able to improve considerably with better jumping. However, for the time being, he has only achieved moderate form and looks in need of further experience.

Hamilton Dici bg Mrs Jane Williams j1-0-0 (-) 93 ?
Coastal Path (Assessor){5-j}(0.71) 1/0 Umbria Dici 1st 3YO Conditions Hurdle, Salon Provence 2011

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hamilton-dici

Initially entered in a couple of contests in the UK, Hamilton Dici would make his hurdling debut in a newcomers race at Compiegne on the first of November. Sent off at odds of 92/1, he began in a prominent position but after skewing at the first and getting too close to the second, he dropped back to a midfield position that he would never leave. Jumping slowly and to the right at the next, he skewed over the sixth and eighth and was slow over the ninth and the last after which he finished an eighteen length tenth. The winner was subsequently beaten by thirty three lengths in a Groupe III at the same venue later in the month, the fourth was a twelve length runner-up at Auteuil later in the month while the fifth filled the same position at Compiegne while receiving four kilos. The standard of form is difficult to quantify but the RPR of 93 does not look unreasonable and the yard's horses with experience in France win their fair share of races. Coastal Path has a fair winners to runners rate in France and the dam was a winning juvenile in the provinces. Better hurdling on his debut would have been preferable but the experience is there and he would not be entirely ruled out in this company.

Hope You Do bg Philip Hobbs b1-1-0
Boris de Deauville (Nononito){3-c}(2.00) 2/1 Bidourey 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Fontwell 2014

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hope-you-do

The Prix d'Amours is an AQPS newcomers bumper held in May and while it has not been the source of juvenile hurdlers during its history, the 2015 winner was the tricky but talented Crack Mome. This year's renewal was taken by the Isabelle Pacault trained Hope You Do who made most of the running and ran on well to win by two lengths. The runner-up was fourth next time, conceding a kilo and finishing within a length of Hudson de Grugy who made a respectable UK debut at Sandown over the weekend, before winning a race of his own next time. The third placed horse finished second next time while the seventh placed finisher is also a winner. Anne-Sophie and Isabelle Pacault have been responsible for six juvenile hurdlers since 2014, and two of them have been winners. Espoir d'Allen went on to become a Champion Hurdler while Bidourey won on his first three starts in the division. Hope You Do is out of a half-sister to the latter and while the pedigree does not contain champions, it is a consistent source of winners and the dam, granddam and third dam all won chases as four-year-olds. Philip Hobbs has a strong record in the division with well above average figures across the board. His first time out strike rate is also a pleasing 20.51% with two of his first time out winners coming from AQPS races including Defi du Seuil.

Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens Unraced
Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
Robert Stephens has saddled just six juvenile hurdlers during his career, but two have been winners including the useful Beltor and none of his charges have fallen, unseated or refused. Son Of Oz will be his first unraced debutant in the sphere, but he does have a pedigree appropriate for the discipline. Australia produced three winning juvenile hurdlers in his first crop while Monsun has a 28.57% winners to runners rate as a damsire. A half-brother to winning hurdler Normal Norman, Son Of Oz also has the likes of Aviso (3/1), Aramon (3/2), Aramax (3/2) and King's Socks (3/3) on the damline. However, as mentioned earlier, newcomers have a poor first time out strike rate and there is some concern over Son Of Oz's sale prices as while he fetched 50,000 guineas as a foal, he was let go for 3,000 guineas as a yearling.

Lunar Bounty bf Alan King f1-0-0 (-) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 76 78
Sea The Moon (King's Theatre){25}(0.65) 1/0 The Pirate's Queen 4th David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2015
Though well beaten on her sole flat start back in July, Lunar Bounty represents a top yard in the division with two wins in this particular contest, and is bred to be a jumper. By Sea The Moon (33.33% winners to runners with juveniles), she is out of a King's Theatre mare who was fourth in the Mares' Hurdle at the Festival who herself is a full-sister to The Dutchman and Katie Too. The granddam won a Grade Three mares' novice chase and the likes of Addington Boy and Lord Noelie can also be found on the damline. Lunar Bounty was not particularly well fancied ahead of her hurdles bow at Leicester behind Megan but while hampered at the first, she only made one real mistake at the fourth and travelled well before being outpaced in the straight. While the bare form of being beaten by over thirty lengths is poor, it was not the worst introduction. However, but she may be one who benefits from time to develop as a hurdler.

Strong prospects
1. Hope You Do
Reasonable prospects
2. Dreaming Blue
3. Ambassador
4. Hamilton Dici
Feasible prospects
5. Lunar Bounty
6. Balkardy
Moderate prospects
7. Galidermes
8. Alberic
Negligible prospects
9. Son Of Oz

[Kotkijet]

If essay previews are not really your thing and you would prefer walls of data then you are in for a treat. Conversely, if you find masses of data to be cold and tedious then I have some unfortunate news. Personal circumstances, essentially homelessness in conjunction with ADD*, have played havoc on my time management and concentration skills. So instead of essay previews, I can only really present the raw data in a deconstructed fashion. While some people will pay good money for this type of presentation at certain restaurants, I am old fashioned in that I rather the chef actually cooks the meal. Luckily, having been teetotal for several years and currently being in a satisfactory women situation, homelessness is perhaps the easiest affliction for someone with ADD to manage. As such, while the recovery schedule for this particular challenge is vague at best, I should still have enough wit about me to continue contributing to this thread in one fashion or another.

*ADD - Attention Deficit Disorder is similar to ADHD but instead of ants in the pants, it's more dozens of tabs open at the same time with none of them related to the sole reason you opened the laptop, and the 'close tabs' button doesn't work, oh look, a squirrel! People with ADD also have a propensity to overshare...

So there are three races tomorrow and they all look very nice. But instead of essays to preview them, it will be course details, a history of the race's impact on bigger Juvenile Hurdles later in the season, trainer's record in said race, overview of trainer and sire records in the division with information on source trainers for newcomers with a new yard, and summaries of race records, ratings and pedigrees.

FAIRYHOUSE







Adamaris chg Gerard O'Leary f12-1-2 (68) 75
Born To Sea (Oratorio){22-b}(1.86) 2/1 Juno The Muffinman 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2012
Baltinglass Hill bg P J Rothwell f3-0-0 (75) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cable Bay (Iffraaj){16-a}(2.00) 3/0 Wheeler's Wonder 1st Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Wincanton 1993
Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f10-0-7 (80) 86 j1-0-0 (-) 88 116
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (54) 70 j4-0-1 (-) 112 115
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
Damage Control chg Gordon Elliott f11-1-4 (84) 95 (Andrew Balding) 70,000 gns Tatts Autumn
Zoffany (Nashwan){16-h}(4.60) 0.5 Cartwright 1st Listed Novice Hurdle, Navan 2018
Ilmig bg Mrs John Harrington f2-1-1 (-) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 119 120
Galileo (Empire Maker){A4}(0.96) 3/2 Lorikeet 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2005
Movie King chg A J Martin f6-0-1 (46) 55 j2-0-0 (-) 83 80
Animal Kingdom (Songandaprayer){2-d}(9.00) 4/6 Red Tornado 2nd Summer Handicap Hurdle (130), Market Rasen 2017
Peckham Springs chg Paul Stafford f6-0-0 (79) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 101 99
Gale Force Ten (Daylami){21-a}(1.67) 3/2 Balanak 1st Dovecote Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 1995
Toughari bg Thomas Mullins f7-1-0 (63) 66 j3-0-0 (-) 107 108
Tough As Nails (Imperial Ballet){14-e}(1.00) 2/2 Golden Sage 1st Grande Course de Haies des 4 Ans (L), Cagnes Sur Mer 2018
Townes bg Thomas Cleary f5-0-0 (53) 54 j1-0-0 (-) 86 89
Elusive Pimpernel (Kodiac){12-g}(1.22) 3/3 Berjou 3rd Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (G1), Auteuil 2019
Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j1-0-0 (-) 22 22
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 2/2 Jeff Kidder 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Fairyhouse 2020
Laralei bf Noel C Kelly f6-0-1 (52) 54 (Ger Lyons)
Hot Streak (Mujadil){7}(1.86) 3/1 Double Account 1st Handicap Hurdle (114), Huntingdon 2003
Roma Delight bf T M Walsh f10-0-4 UsF 30 j1-0-0 (-) 79 77
Paynter (Devil His Due){8}(2.20) 2/1 Arch Rebel 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2004
Saga Malta bf Barry J Fitzgerald j3-0-0 (-) 89 92
War Command (Exceed And Excel){22-b}(2.11) 2/1 Juno The Muffinman 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2012
Reserves
Willywampus chg Donal Commins f5-0-1 (75) 82 j1-0-0 (-) 76 80
Zoffany (Medicean){16-h}(3.00) 3/1 Swiss Guard 1st Handicap Hurdle (93), Lingfield 2011
Pushover grf Noel C Kelly f6-0-0 (56) 57 (Steph Hollinshead)
Hellvelyn (Petorius){8-k}(3.00) 1/0 Soft Touch 1st Novices' Hurdle, Worcester 1999
French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Newbury 2016

CHELTENHAM







Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 65 j5-2-1 (118) 108 123
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
Son Of Red bg Alan King f7-1-2 (66) 70 j1-1-0 (-) 106 117
French Navy (Kalanisi){5-b}(1.67) 3/1 Always Bold 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Doncaster 2009
Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j2-1-1 (130) 120 124
Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017
Blue Slate grg Barry Brennan f8-0-1 (47) 58 j2-1-0 (113) 105 100
Alhebayeb (Halling){7-f}(1.15) 3/2 Eddiemaurice 1st Handicap Hurdle (122), Ascot 2016
Camouflaged grg Charlie Mann f12-2-5 (76) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 69 79
Dark Angel (Singspiel){6-b}(1.33) 2/2 Leoncavallo 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2015
Pawpaw bg Paul Webber 5-1-1 (74) 77 (Clive Cox) 62,000gns Tatts July
Showcasing (Teofilo){1-n}(1.00) 2/1 Double Deputy 1st Handicap Hurdle (105), Market Rasen 2007
Shake A Leg bg Dan Skelton f11-1-0 (82) 86 (Andrew Oliver) 30,000gns Tatts Autumn
Excelebration (Dance Brightly){A24}(3.57) No jumps relatives
Simply True chg D J Jeffreys f18-4-1 (85) 87 (Andrew Oliver) 50,000gns Tatts Autumn
Camacho (Beat Hollow){5-h}(1.46) 2/1 Dr Livingstone 1st Novices' Hurdle, Leicester 2009


DONCASTER







Monmiral blg Paul Nicholls j2-2-0 (137) 120 124
Saint Des Saints (Mont Basile){16}(0.60) 2/1 La Landiere 160 1st Cathcart Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2003
Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Glorious Zoff bg Gordon Elliott f6-0-1 (70) 74 j2-1-0 (-) 126 134
Zoffany (Overbury){4-r}(1.40) 3/1 Spate River 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Southwell 2012
Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j3-2-1 (123) 110 120
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
Mistersister grg Charlie Mann f1-0-0 (-) 47 j3-1-0 FrH (130) - (Francois Nicolle) €16,006 Claimer
Wootton Bassett (Mineshaft){9-e}(1.22) 1/0 Peace Mine 1st 3yo Hurdle, Compiegne 2014

[Kotkijet]

Triumph odds
Monmiral 25/1
Adagio 40/1
Son Of Red 40/1
Elham Valley 50/1
Ilmig 50/1
Charlie Bassett 50/1
Historic Heart 66/1
Glorious Zoff 66/1

Fred Winter odds
Adagio 14/1
Elham Valley 20/1
Glorious Zoff 33/1
Ilmig 33/1
Damage Control 40/1

Fairyhouse
Strong prospects
1. Ilmig
Reasonable prospects
2. Charlie Bassett
3. Damage Control
4. Complete Fantasy
Feasible prospects
5. Toughari
6. Adamaris
Moderate prospects
7. Peckham Springs
8. Saga Malta
9. Willywampus (R)
10. Townes
Negligible prospects
11. Laralei
12. French Asset (R)
13. Roma Delight
14. Movie King
15. Lady Kapalua
16. Pushover (R)
17. Baltinglass Hill

Cheltenham
Strong prospects
1. Adagio
Reasonable prospects
2. Son Of Red
3. Elham Valley
Feasible prospects
4. Historic Heart
Moderate prospects
5. Simply True
6. Shake A Leg
7. Camouflaged
Negligible prospects
8. Blue Slate
9. Pawpaw

Doncaster
Strong prospects
1. Glorious Zoff*
Reasonable prospects
2. Monmiral
Feasible prospects
3. Gold Desert
Moderate prospects
4. Mistersister
Negligible prospects
5. Cloud Thunder

*There is reason to suspect that Glorious Zoff may be ran with the intention of protecting his mark ahead of a tilt at the Fred Winter. However, on known form and in these conditions, Glorious Zoff has a winner's chance if running to the fullest extent of his abilities.

[Kotkijet]

Catterick's second juvenile hurdle takes place tomorrow and it offers an opportunity to qualify for the ?35,000 final at Musselburgh in March. Tomorrow's contest has been held each year since 2014 but while it is slightly better than the average race at the North Yorkshire venue, its standard is held up by 2016 first and second Nietzsche and Project Bluebook who would finish third and fourth in that season's Fred Winter. On known hurdling form, this year's renewal appears trappy without being especially classy with a good dozen of the runners separated by no more than half a stone. However, southern raider and newcomer to the sphere, Indigo Lake, could be a useful recruit as his BHA rating of 91 is the highest brought to the division thus far this season. A sharp track with only minor undulations, Catterick is one of the easier circuits in the country. Although its varied DIs of 1.19 median, 1.40 mean imply that a soft surface can make a difference which is the current state of the ground. The clear round rate of 95.76% is just below average but would not suggest a particularly stern jumping test.

Genever Dragon bg Donald McCain f10-0-2 (62) 71 j3-1-1 (115) 104 109
Dragon Pulse (Red Clubs){1-w}(1.29) 3/1 Staunch Rival 2nd Handicap Chase (124), Sandown 1995
Winless after ten starts on the flat for Tom Dascombe, Genever Dragon was able to score at the first time of asking over hurdles when taking a Sedgefield maiden from Magna Moralia at the end of September. He was unable to build on that success on his return to the venue, finishing twenty lengths behind Glorious Zoff and Gold Desert, rather struggling in the softer ground. He returned to something like his best last time over tomorrow's course and distance when twelve lengths behind Gold Desert and Grouseman (each finishing second next time) while confirming superiority over Magna Moralia. His jumping there cost him several lengths but no places. Nevertheless, this relative renaissance came on ground much firmer than what he is likely to encounter tomorrow and his penalty will be a hindrance against several of his rivals.

El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57
Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
Since 2008/09, five of Brian Ellison's twenty-one juvenile hurdlers at Catterick have been winners, and his three runners in this particular contest have all reached the frame. The master of Spring Cottage Stables saddles two runners here, the first being flat maiden El Jefe. Rated 53 after seven runs on the level, he was twice able to reach the frame including when last seen when runner-up in a soft ground, ten-furlong Redcar handicap in early October. His first run since wind surgery, he made good headway to run into second during the straight but looked very suspect when asked to go after the leader. The first and second each won next time, but there are still half a dozen opponents here who are rated upwards of a stone higher. Born To Sea has done well in the division thus far with a 26.09% winners to runners rate, and he is out of a full-sister to winning juvenile hurdler Mountain. However, El Jefe has moderate form and a questionable attitude to overcome and he looks the yard's second string.

En Couleur bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (60) 68 j1-0-0 (-) 101 108
Archipenko (With Approval){16}(0.90) 2/1 Circus Maximus 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2001
Micheal Easterby is another doubly represented trainer in this race, although his figures are below average (10.81% winners to runners) and he has had six juveniles race at Catterick without finishing placed. The first of his pair, En Couleur, was unable to replicate the promise of his debut third in two subsequent starts on the flat. Nevertheless, he outran his odds of 125/1 to finish an eleven length fourth in a Wetherby maiden three weeks ago. Faring best of those held up, he was still in the rear leaving the back. However, he plugged on up the straight and narrowly got the best of a closely fought battle for fourth. Apart from getting close to the sixth, his jumping was sound throughout and the performance marked a new career best. Given that this was only the fourth time he had seen a racecourse, there is still potential for further development and his jumping should see him in good stead. Notwithstanding, the stable could be in better form and En Couleur may be better suited by a sterner test than that offered by Catterick.

Fahad bg Danny Brooke f5-0-1 (72) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 84 90
Farhh (Nayef){1-k}(2.50) 3/3 Lisheen Castle 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Wetherby 2019
Rated as high as 77 during a five race career for Roger Varian, Fahad joined Danny Brooke for 14,000 guineas and was his new handler's first foray in the discipline over this course and distance last month. Held up in the rear and jumping none too fluently, he passed beaten horses to finish a twenty-three length fifth. While it would be fair to expect some improvement for the experience, he is not especially bred to thrive in the division and has ground to find on Genever Dragon.

Hellfire Kode bg Simon Waugh f2-0-0 (-) 14
Helmet (Kodiac){12-g}(0.82) 3/1 High Magic 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Clonmel 2010
Beaten a combined forty-seven lengths, Hellfire Kode beat only one of eighteen rivals home in a pair of novice stakes at Newcastle and Redcar back in June. Representing a trainer without a winning jumper in over two years, sire Helmet does get winning juveniles but less than his fair share. The granddam is a half-sister to a placed hurdler and capable French juvenile Flavin appears further back on the damline at 4/4.

I'm Easy bg Michael Easterby f3-0-0 (50) 45 j2-0-0 (-) 76 83
Archipenko (Sadler's Wells){20-c}(0.85) 0.5 Strategic Bid 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2012
The stablemate of En Couleur, I'm Easy achieved little in three outings but has made a marginally better hurdler. Following a moderate hurdles bow at Southwell, he jumped fine without leaving midfield when beating three home at Newcastle seventeen days ago. He finished twenty-two lengths behind Sir Charles Punch and there is no reason to suggest he can reverse those placings.

Indigo Lake bg Dr Richard Newland f9-2-3 (91) 96
Frankel (Oasis Dream){11}(0.67) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
Newcomer Indigo Lake has several attributes which make him a compelling recruit to the division. His official rating of 91 is the highest seen this season and it came courtesy of a decisive win at Newcastle in September. Travelling easily behind the leaders, he cruised to the front with just over a furlong to go and stayed on well to finish two and a half lengths clear of his rivals. The runner-up was a length third next time off the same mark while third placed Iffraaz scored by three lengths at Kempton. Indigo Lake was not disgraced on his sole subsequent start when finishing midfield in the Old Rowley Cup Handicap the following month. Frankel is establishing himself as a versatile stallion of classic calibre flat horses and while he is unlikely to match those heights with his hurdlers, he has already produced useful juveniles in Solo Saxophone and Commentariolus. Indigo Lake's granddam is a half-sister to top class hurdler Kerawi and Grade Three winning novice Hash Brown appears at 4/2 on the damline. Dr Richard Newland's winners to runners rate of 44.44%, including Duke Street and Vosne Romanee, is the best of the trainers represented in the field and none of his juveniles have fallen, unseated or refused in seventy-two races. Leaving John Gosden for 95,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Indigo Lake is his trainer's most expensive recruit in the divsion. However, it is here where doubts begin to creep into the profile. So talented is John Gosden as a flat trainer that his graduates typically leave without room for improvement. As a source, his winners to runners rate in the division is 12.24% with only 14.71% finding any improvement for the switch between codes. There are of course exceptions and of the forty-nine ex-Gosden horses to compete in the sphere, only Triumph hurdle fifth Sir Pitt has earned an RPR exceeding 121. Oasis Dream's record as a damsire is similarly harrowing as his strike rate in said capacity is just 2.08%. There are also concerns with Indigo Lake himself as not only has he shown better form on good ground but has also looked a difficult ride on occasion. While Indigo Lake could potentially be a useful recruit to the sphere, it remains to be seen if the negatives are enough to spoil his profile like the proverbial curate's egg.

Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j3-0-1 (108) 98 103
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
With three runs over jumps to his name, Kings Creek is the joint most experienced hurdler in the field. With the exception of one rival, he is also the freshest by virtue of his seventy-seven day absence. His first two starts, a fourteen length fourth to Hiconic at Stratford and a six length fourth to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen, were characterised by understated professionalism. Leaving Alan King for ?12,500 at the Goffs UK September Sale, he jumped well enough again on his stable debut at Sedgefield behind Genever Dragon. The standard of form he has shown is respectable for the standard of this race and he might benefit for the layoff. However, he would still need to show further improvement and does not look likely to be suited by the softer ground.

Kiss My Face bg Brian Ellison b2-0-2 96
Nathaniel (Dansili){20-a}(0.83) 0.5 Major Snugfit 2nd Handicap Hurdle (79), Sedgefield 2020
The first string of Brian Ellison, Kiss My Face will be only the third juvenile for his trainer to have emerged from junior bumpers. Placed on both starts to date, he made his debut at Market Rasen where after finding himself outpaced at the distance, plugged on to finish just under five lengths third. Next time at Huntingdon, he was no match for Eileendover, who subsequently ran away with another bumper at Wetherby, but kept on again to finish second from a strung-out field which included Market Rasen runner-up (ahead of Yulong Magicreef) Shalott. The step up in trip should suit as should the switch to an easier surface as he is out of mare who won twice on soft ground. Nathaniel (Zanahiyr, Navajo Pass, Burning Victory) has an impressive strike rate of 26.32% with his juveniles although enthusiasm is tempered by Dansili's 5.32% as a damsire and the most notable jumper on the damline is Hexham chase winner Currahee at 3/1. This season's bumper recruits have amassed three places between them, while the overall first time out record of such horses is rather lamentable, those who achieved RPRs of 95 and above win their fair share of hurdles. As mentioned earlier, Brian Ellison has a fine record in this race, but he is currently on a winless streak of forty-three over jumps and though his charges tend to improve for the run, his first-time strike rate of 14.86% is still above average.

Sir Charles Punch bg Tim Easterby f12-0-2 (68) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 98 105
Sir Percy (Archipenko){1-k}(0.33) 3/1 Cava Bien 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (104), Newbury 2006
Rated 77 on his final start for James Given last year, Sir Charles Punch's mark dropped nine pounds after seven races this term. This is perhaps less a reflection on his capacity, and more his ability to fulfil same as he had a tendency of sweating up and pulling hard. While he settled better on his jumps debut at Newcastle, he was far from straightforward with his hurdling. Very hesitant at the first couple of flights, he also wandered and steadied into a couple down the back. There was improvement in his jumping as the race progressed and though he was readily outpaced after three out and was ten lengths behind the third at the line, he was still upwards of twenty lengths clear of the remainder. The form of that contest has been somewhat substantiated with the winner faring creditably in a better race at Cheltenham. There is room for further improvement if he can jump more confidently although Tim Easterby's juveniles do not necessarily step up on their debut efforts as a rule. Nevertheless, the strength of Sir Charles Punch's performance at face value is still enough to make him competitive and he may find further improvement for the softer surface on flat form and breeding.

Wise Eagle chg Adam Nicol f6-1-0 (67) 74
Free Eagle (Exceed And Excel){9-e}(1.00) 3/2 Cardinal Palace 2nd Persian War Novices' Hurdle (G2) Chepstow 2015
Fourth on his debut at Lingfield in January, Wise Eagle followed a success at the same venue with a quartet of seventh placed finished in handicaps between eight and twelve furlongs. Rated 77 following his success, he subsequently dropped ten pounds and left Tom Clover for the sum of 7,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Set to be Adam Nicol's first juvenile hurdler, he is also a contingent of Free Eagle's first crop which has already produced two winners from five. The blinkers he wore on his latest two starts are left off here, and it remains to be seen if this is a useful step as he took an extremely keen hold when last seen at Yarmouth in October. Though his flat form is appropriate for this company, he is not an assured stayer and his attitude renders his profile as patchy for the time being.

Yulong Magicreef bg Jonjo O'Neill f5-0-1 (78) 73 j2-0-1 (-) 92 101
Fastnet Rock (Zamindar){13-c}(2.64) 3/1 Cape Express 1st Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Yulong Magicreef followed a compelling racecourse debut at the Curragh in June with four increasingly disappointing efforts for Jessica Harrington and was beaten fifty lengths on his hurdling debut at Wetherby. There was little cause for complaint insofar as his jumping was concerned and another good round saw an improved effort last time out when third to Volkovka at Market Rasen twelve days ago. Held up in midfield, he joined the vanguard in the straight but was unable to put his stamp on the race and was outpaced after the last. While a huge improvement on his debut, it was not the most substantial contest and the performance was still someway short of his better flat form. Nevertheless, he is representing a Jonjo O'Neill yard which won this race last year and would not be readily dismissed.

Miracle Eagle bf Jedd O'Keeffe f7-0-2 (57) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 94 101
Free Eagle (Lawman){13-b}(0.52) 2/1 Heat Storm 5th Maiden Hurdle, Fakenham 2017
A progressive if moderate maiden on the flat, Miracle Eagle had a fair introduction to hurdles when fifth at Wetherby last month. She had the tendency to be headstrong on the flat and it was this trait which caused her to wander on the approach to the second. However, she got over that hurdle well enough and was able to settle better entering the back. Though she faded from a prominent position in the straight, losing fourth to En Couleur on the line, this still represented a new career best and the less taxing demands of Catterick may suit her better. However, she was withdrawn from an engagement on the flat due to soft ground and the stable would ideally be in better form.

Walkonby chf Micky Hammond f13-4-2 (72) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 67 67
Sixties Icon (Fastnet Rock){4-m}(1.00) 2/1 Baan 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2011
A four-time winner on the flat for Mick Channon, Walkonby's latest success came on her seasonal reappearance at Haydock in a ten-furlong handicap off 71. Although she did not run to that level in three subsequent outings, she returned to something like her best on her latest flat outing when fourth of thirteen in a soft ground Doncaster handicap in October. Joining Micky Hammond for 16,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, she took a keen hold from the outset on her hurdling debut at Wetherby and did not settle at any stage prior to tiring. She did make headway along the back and was still in touch at the top of the straight. However, her exertions had taken a toll and she weakened before finishing a forty-five length ninth. This was a disappointing performance on the face of it, but it was not without promise as her jumping had been very neat and she only made her first error at three out where she was squeezed out on the approach. The cheekpieces she wore at Doncaster were left off here and though she was still keen early on last time, it was not to the same extent so. They have yet to be reapplied however and while the yard is in better form and its runners often improve with experience, it would be preferable to see her settle better before she can be given serious prospects.

Where's The Tape bf Sean Conway j1-0-0 (-) 73 83
Coach House (Southern Halo){1-x}(1.40) 2/1 Actionnaire 3rd Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2002
Where's The Tape was making her racecourse debut for a mostly unproven sire and trainer when last seen at Sedgefield in October. Though a descendent of Allez France and distantly related to some top juveniles, there was not much else to recommend her. Nevertheless, a slow jump at the first notwithstanding, she put in an acceptable round of hurdling and stayed on to briefly run into third on the run-in before losing that position on the line. This was all the more creditable considering that she cantered loose prior to the start of the race. What she achieved probably amounts to little from a form perspective as winner Gold Desert was the only participant with discernible quality. Nevertheless, it was not the worst introduction to the discipline although she still has something to find with most of her rivals.

Strong prospects
1. Kiss My Face
Reasonable prospects
2. Sir Charles Punch
3. Indigo Lake
4. Yulong Magicreef
Feasible prospects
5. Genever Dragon
6. En Couleur
7. Miracle Eagle
8. Walkonby
9. Kings Creek
Moderate prospects
10. Wise Eagle
11. Where's The Tape
12. Fahad
Negligible prospects
13. El Jefe
14. I'm Easy
15. Hellfire Kode

[Kotkijet]

Once upon a time, Newbury hosted two juvenile hurdles in November. This was reduced to the one at the Hennessy meeting and since 2016, juveniles' first sight of the Berkshire venue occur in tomorrow's corresponding contest. Of all the racecourses which do not host a graded contest in the sphere, only Ascot's winning juveniles have a superior seasonal RPR to Newbury's 128. Tomorrow's race is generally a well-contested affair with the average winning seasonal RPR being 131. The 2008 renewal was particularly strong with the first two, Zaynar and Walkon, filling the same places in the Triumph Hurdle. Other classy winners include Clan des Obeaux, Third Intention and Style de Garde. This year's renewal may struggle to reach those heights as the experienced horses have shown only reasonable form, and the highest rating brought by the flat recruits is 82. The mean winning DI of 1.41 is higher than average, although the median figure of 1.09 is on the other side of standard. Compared to those of the average runner, there is less discernible difference than usual which follows the premise that Newbury is one of the fairest courses in the UK. Its clear round rate of 96.81% also supports this notion. The going is currently described as soft with more rain forecast for after the race than beforehand.

Overpriced Mixer bg Nicky Henderson f6-2-2 (78) 78 j2-1-0 (-) 114 111
Harbour Watch (Daylami){21-a}(1.40) 4/2 Mike Quercus 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2014
Joining Nicky Henderson as a two-year-old for ?90,000, Overpriced Mixer was well beaten off a mark of 78 on his sole run for his new trainer on the flat. He made a winning start to his jumps career at Kempton, although it was not entirely straightforward as a mistake at the last saw his rider complete the race without irons. Nevertheless, he won with something to spare from Kentucky Hardboot and while it did not look the strongest race hosted at Kempton, the third and fourth, each upwards of fifteen lengths behind the winner, have each franked the form by winning their next completed starts. Bypassing the Grade 2 at Cheltenham for a Ludlow contest the same week, his jumping was slightly worse and he was awkward over several of his hurdles. He did not get particularly high over the penultimate flight, but it was a slight slip a couple of strides afterwards which caused him to lose Nico de Boinville. It can not be said for certain that he would have won or lost this race as he was still in contention, and given he was running fairly green in the straight, may have found more for getting a good stride. However, the winner, Talking About You, had made ground on him on the run to two out and she also ran on strongly all the way to the line so on balance, Overpriced Mixer would likely have finished second. Nevertheless, the form of this race is also looking stronger in hindsight than it did contemporarily. Talking About You was an emphatic winner of Aintree's listed hurdle, runner-up Naizagai finished second in a Sandown handicap off 115, and the third and fourth both finished second next time out. Overpriced Mixer is clearly a capable sort but he is not without his quirks. Furthermore, even if there is development in his jumping and attitude, it is improbable that he is anything approaching top class and there is little racecourse or pedigree evidence to suggest that he will appreciate the softer ground. Notwithstanding, Nicky Henderson's record with juveniles at Newbury is very solid, and his seven runners in this contest have produced four winners and three seconds. There may be more clues in the market insofar as where he stands in relation to his stablemate who is ridden by the owner's retainer.

Albert Van Ornum bg Gary Moore f4-1-0 FrF 29.0 (63.8) 30
Authorized (Librettist){4-n}(0.73) 2/2 Verawal 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2014

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/albert-van-ornum

Gavin Hernon supplied the division with two juveniles last term, and though with neither won in eight combined starts, they each posted RPRs of 110 and above. His latest export, Albert Van Ornum, fetched 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and is a winner of one flat race from four. That success came on his penultimate start in a €10,000 conditions race at Auch over 2650 meters where he made all to win by half a length. The standard of that form is not the highest and his ability is fairly reflected by the fact that he was well beaten next time in a Saint Cloud handicap off 30 (BHA 66). Nevertheless, there is more encouragement in his pedigree as he is a son of leading juvenile stallion Authorized, and is related to useful sorts in Verawal (2/2), Young Poli (4/3) and Nasirabad (4/3). In-form trainer Gary Moore has a fine record in this division, although his charges have reached the frame in this contest only once in five attempts. He is bred to run with credit as a juvenile hurdler and the yard does well with French flat imports, five of twelve have won in the division. However, this sort tends to be higher rated and generally improve for their debut experience.

Goodbye Stranger bg Nicky Henderson Unraced
Kapgarde (Muhtathir){14-c}(0.82) 1/0 Romaneda 2nd 3YO Newcomers Hurdle, Pau 2013
Since 2008/09, Nicky Henderson has saddled eighty-nine juvenile hurdlers, but Goodbye Stranger is set to be the first to do so as a racecourse debutant. Sourced through the same connections as the stable's highly talented We Have A Dream, Goodbye Stranger is a son of Kapgarde whose figures are superior to those of Authorized in the UK and Ireland, though somewhat inferior in France. His dam finished second in a newcomers race at Pau, and his pedigree is inundated with winning juveniles including Baby Doll (2/1), Rashcoeur (3/1), Maharina (3/1), Cavadee (3/1), Isabe (3/2) and Horse Maha (3/2). Nicky Henderson has used this race to introduce Zaynar and Style de Garde while Top Notch and Fix Le Kap also made their stable debuts at this venue. He was described as ticking the boxes in his stable tour and he is being sent straight over hurdles instead of starting in a bumper. However, while this could indicate that he has schooled well, it may also imply that he lacks pace. The fact that he also starts off in a hood does give rise to trepidation, although it should be noted that Style de Garde did the same thing when winning this race in 2017.

Iron Heart bc David Pipe f8-2-3 (79) 81 j1-0-1 (-) 75 85
Muhaarar (Dubawi){10-b}(1.13) 2/1 Red Riverman 2nd Free Handicap Hurdle (121), Chepstow 2012
Twice a winner on the flat for for Andrew Balding, including a two runner Salisbury handicap in August, Iron Heart joined David Pipe for 28,000 guineas. His hurdling debut came at Wincanton in October and given that his best flat form had been on good ground, the conditions appeared to be as good as they would get for him at this juncture. However, his jumping was untidy and he went through a couple of his hurdles which likely caused the wound on his near fore. He was hesitant going over the last two jumps and the experience will not have filled him with confidence. Iron Heart's flat ability, along with his being out of a half-sister to the useful Red Riverman, suggest that he can perform in this discipline. Notwithstanding, it was not an ideal introduction and given his trainer's propensity to bring his charges along slowly, a strong showing tomorrow would be unexpected.

Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j2-0-2 (118) 107 111
Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
Despite having a patchy profile and moderate flat form, Kentucky Hardboot was supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Kempton where he finished second to Overpriced Mixer. He was placed again next time in an open age maiden at Huntingdon but it was a regression in terms of form. Disputing the lead for much of the contest, he made mistakes at half of his hurdles and was readily outpaced turning for home before a tired leap at the last. He was eventually beaten by nearly twenty-three lengths and while the front two look like decent sorts, there was not much in behind. His jumping will need to improve and while he will appreciate the return to his own age group, he demonstrated a discernible preference for quicker ground on the flat.

Leylak bg Dan Skelton f3-0-0 (72) 69
Born To Sea (Elusive Quality){13-c}(3.00) 4/2 Lisaan 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Leopardstown 2001
Michael Halford has supplied Dan Skelton with two recruits to the division. Ashoka made a winning debut at Warwick in December 2015, and Zarib carried the red and green colours of Notalotterry when winning this contest in 2014. Leylak is the latest horse to make this particular journey after fetching €31,000 at the Goffs Autumn online sale. Making his debut in June, he was twice placed sixth in maidens at Roscommon and Limerick before a gelding operation and a three month break saw him post his strongest effort to date in a twelve furlong maiden on soft ground at the Curragh. The strength of the effort is relative as he was still beaten more than seven lengths and finished in eighth place. He did finish amongst a heap which included a pair of 80 rated animals and while it would be generous to suggest that Leylak ran to that level, there is encouragement to be drawn as it was his first run after a break and he demonstrated a straightforward attitude along with an ability to stay. Sire Born To Sea has an above average record in the discipline although the damline does want for imminent jumping talent with Lisaan (4/2) and Lalezari (5/1) being the closest examples. Leylak does lack somewhat insofar as proven flat ability and substantial breeding is concerned, but the sire is a handy fillip and his source is particularly intriguing for a trainer which already has a respectable 28.13% first time strike rate with flat recruits.

Night Bear chg Tony Carroll f6-1-2 (82) 85
Dragon Pulse (Dansant){3-l}(1.67) 2/2 Oxford Blu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Fakenham 2017
Ed Vaughan is another respectable source of juvenile hurdlers with three of his seven exports being winners. His latest offering in Night Bear fetched 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and a six race flat career ended with a rating of 82 which is the highest brought into the race. Finishing down the field in a pair of all-weather maidens last year, he returned in June to finish third at Doncaster before breaking his duck in a ten-furlong handicap at Redcar. He built on this effort when a length runner-up to subsequent Doncaster Cup fourth Revolver over a half-mile further at Haydock the following month, and was not disgraced when sixth of eight when last seen at Newmarket in August. Dragon Pulse has produced a pair of winning juveniles from thirteen and the damline does contain a couple of winning hurdlers at a lower level. Trainer Tony Carroll is more prolific on the flat and while he wins his fair share in this discipline, his juveniles at Newbury have a moderate record and high flat ratings do not necessarily translate over hurdles as only one of his twelve who achieved a flat RPR exceeding 80 was able to win.

Prince Percy bg G Moore f7-0-1 (57) 65 j2-0-1 (-) 96 101
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u}(0.39) 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Prix Achille-Fould (L), Auteuil 2007
Prince Percy made a fair impression on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July when second to Soldier On Parade. However, prior to his latest outing at Plumpton back in September, had disappointed in the interim on the flat. He was backed into favouritism at Plumpton but was pulled up between the final two flights which would make this the fifth time in his latest six starts that he has been unable to justify market support. He was keen early on and while he jumped well on his debut, was slightly slow at the third and got in close to the fifth and sixth before jumping his last flight slowly. He is obviously thought capable of better than this and there is a level over hurdles where he can be competitive. It is also possible that an eighty-seven day absence will have done him good. However, he is the lowest rated of these on the flat and will need to have improved considerably during his sabbatical if he is to pose a threat in this contest.

Splinter bg Alex Hales f10-1-3 (70) 79
Garswood (Whipper){2-i}(1.29) 0.5 Fantastic Ms Fox 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Doncaster 2020
Another recruit from the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Splinter left the Richard Fahey yard for 9,000gns. His sole win from ten starts came on his penultimate outing in a Musselburgh when finishing ahead of My Macho Man who has since been well beaten in a couple of hurdles runs. Splinter was last seen five days later when tailed off in a Catterick handicap, but his rating of 70 is justified by most of his previous runs in the sphere - all of which occurring since June. Garswood has yet to be tested as a sire in this division although his being by Dutch Art is not a brilliant indicator of potential. The damline is more encouraging as half-sister Fantastic Ms Fox won a poorly contested listed hurdle at Doncaster early this year and Come On Sunshine, who finished third in a poorly contested Wensleydale in 2014, appears at 2/2. Alex Hales enjoyed plenty of success with Hiconic over the summer, but if Splinter is to thrive, it will be in calmer waters.

Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79
Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
Starspangledbanner is not the most obvious picture of a sire of juvenile hurdlers. However, Can't Stop Now recently gave him his first winner from limited crops and his own sire Choisir had a 30% winners to runners rate and a very healthy 72.73% improvement rate in the sphere. Olympic Glory, another son of Choisir, has also made a good start in the division with a 37.5% winners to runners rate so the concept of Starspangledbanner thriving with young hurdlers is looking decreasingly far-fetched. This makes his mating with Bright Bank all the more compelling as along with producing winning juvenile Drifter and Galway Hurdle winner Thomas Hobson, she is also a half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. Tinnahalla is Bright Bank's latest hurdler and he cost current owners ?105,000 before reaching the track where he finished second on four occasions for Jamie Osborne. His first start as a three year old came in September where he attempted to make all in a Lingfield novice stakes, but found subsequent triple winner Myseven too strong. Nevertheless, the form has a respectable look as the third and fifth have also been winners and a mid-seventies rating is comfortably justified. He filled the same slot again next time at Ripon and the front pair were clear of the remainder with the winner finishing third off 73 next time. He was ridden with more restraint when last seen at Nottingham, although this served to exacerbate his tendency to pull and he ultimately finished tired. Olly Murphy's record with juveniles is solidly average and his charges can win first time out. Tinnahalla's pedigree is a fascinating one for the sphere but there is a concern regarding his ability to settle and while he may benefit from the first time hood, such application is not a reliably successful intervention for the stable's runners.

Wightman bg Mick Channon f12-1-4 (69) 77
Anjaal (El Gran Senor){16-h}(1.50) 2/1 Les Arcs 8th Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2004
Mick Channon used to be a more prolific player in the division, particularly in the summer months. However, most of those formerly under his care tend to go to Sheena West or be publicly sold and he had only one runner last season. Wightman ran twelve times on the flat at distances up to an extended mile and recorded his sole victory five outings ago in a mile handicap at Salisbury off 67. Since then, he has failed to reach the frame, including twice as a favourite, and was last seen finishing eighth of twelve at Wolverhampton a month ago. Anjaal has had only one juvenile hurdler but makes little appeal as a sire in the division and the damline's most notable jumper was Les Arcs who was famous for flopping at Cartmel before becoming a top class sprinter.

Strong prospects
1. Leylak
Reasonable prospects
2. Overpriced Mixer
3. Goodbye Stranger
4. Tinnahalla
Feasible prospects
5. Albert Van Ornum
6. Night Bear
Moderate prospects
7. Kentucky Hardboot
8. Prince Percy
9. Iron Heart
10. Splinter
Negligible prospects
11. Wightman