Ladbroke Trophy (Hennessy)

[opatcho]

Had Copperhead nailed for this race ahead of the RSA
I was concerned after his RSA performance, and even more concerned after his trip over hurdles
Really not keen to follow horses that are pulling up, especially over hurdles in their prep race

[charlie]

Had Copperhead nailed for this race ahead of the RSA
I was concerned after his RSA performance, and even more concerned after his trip over hurdles
Really not keen to follow horses that are pulling up, especially over hurdles in their prep race

Whilst it's never ideal to see PU last time out, it's far less significant IMO when the race in question is a prep race over hurdles.

What makes it even less significant are his seasonal reappearance finishing positions - 7/10, 13/16, 5/8 and now PU.

Some horses desperately need their first run - all Copperhead proved at Wetherby IMO is he really needed his.

I reckon in time he'll prove to be ahead of his current mark, and Colin has won 2 of the last 4. PU isn't great, but it's not enough to put me off given how many boxes he does tick, which is a ton.

[opatcho]

I'm going to have give Copperhead a miss unfortunately because of that

I love a RSA horse for this race, but he's looks as though he's fell off a cliff after his last week. Went into the RSA, appears to hit a brick wall and went backwards. Hurdle prep race, went along, same again... stopped... nothing

Now, I'm not going to sit here and have a strong fancy for this race - it's not a race which I get proper stuck into. However, a big fat "P" next to a "U" before a competitive race like this worries me. I made an exception if a horse over stretches over one, or picks up a knock... but not after I've seen them bomb out that badly

For me, has to be a no

[charlie]

I'm going to have give Copperhead a miss unfortunately because of that

I love a RSA horse for this race, but he's looks as though he's fell off a cliff after his last week. Went into the RSA, appears to hit a brick wall and went backwards. Hurdle prep race, went along, same again... stopped... nothing

Now, I'm not going to sit here and have a strong fancy for this race - it's not a race which I get proper stuck into. However, a big fat "P" next to a "U" before a competitive race like this worries me. I made an exception if a horse over stretches over one, or picks up a knock... but not after I've seen them bomb out that badly

For me, has to be a no

Each to their own Opatcho - who are you going for? (and why if you fancy it)

It's not like I'm sitting here scratching my head as to how someone could oppose Copperhead! He is easily opposable if you think he gave his true running in his last race, and if P's, U's & F's put you off before a competitive race. Perfectly understandable, and I'm certainly not wading in with lumps of cash at 10/1, just a couple of points will do me fine

Worth noting though that Diamond Harry had a, as you put it, big fat "P" and "U" next to his name before winning this - Denman had a big fat "F"! Grade 3 winners having letters instead of numbers next to their name is nothing new, it's been done before and it will be done again, hopefully in a few weeks

[opatcho]

ha ha this is where you're going to laugh

I've backed Two For Gold, yeah yeah I know Copperhead smashed him up last year, but the trainer is in great form and this horse will stay the trip and distance
I think Copperhead peaked last year, whereas I think Two For Gold is on the up

I think there will be a 8-9lbs swing in the weights if they both turn up
He's prep race was spot on, drop him back down to shorter trip on ground that wouldnt have suited.... and he still ran on well. That's the sort of prep I want to see ahead of these

Now, whether Two For Gold turns up after trainers comments ("maybe all too early for her in her career"... which I think is BS) is another thing

Proper proper little horse this. Jockey may have to have his Weetabix as I suspect he'll have to drive Two For Gold but he will keep on finding and finding all the way to the line

Hope he runs!

[charlie]

ha ha this is where you're going to laugh

I've backed Two For Gold, yeah yeah I know Copperhead smashed him up last year, but the trainer is in great form and this horse will stay the trip and distance
I think Copperhead peaked last year, whereas I think Two For Gold is on the up

I think there will be a 8-9lbs swing in the weights if they both turn up
He's prep race was spot on, drop him back down to shorter trip on ground that wouldnt have suited.... and he still ran on well. That's the sort of prep I want to see ahead of these

Now, whether Two For Gold turns up after trainers comments ("maybe all too early for her in her career"... which I think is BS) is another thing

Proper proper little horse this. Jockey may have to have his Weetabix as I suspect he'll have to drive Two For Gold but he will keep on finding and finding all the way to the line

Hope he runs!

Two For Gold could well be improving and Copperhead may have peaked - the argument that horse A beat horse B once upon a time wouldn't hold any weight with me so its not a point I'd make, nor am I laughing at your suggestion.

I like Two For Gold, and there's no doubting KB is flying. He was on my shortlist, but I just thought the price was too short. The fact he may not run says a lot in itself IMO (vs being a nailed on target), he has no experience around Newbury, he has limited experience over 3m+, and he's all that and priced at 10/1.

GL opatcho, hopefully they both go and one of us comes out on top

[Lobos]

Kildisart, Kildisart, Kildisart.

[Diamond Geezer]

Kildisart, Kildisart, Kildisart.

Trainer very upbeat about his chances on local radio just now, saying his prep run at Wetherby had proved most worthwhile.

[Lobos]

Trainer very upbeat about his chances on local radio just now, saying his prep run at Wetherby had proved most worthwhile.

He looks to have the perfect profile to me. Right age, had a prep run which is a big advantage, his rating is within the range of previous winners, proved himself in big handicap chases, very consistent record over fences, good win rate, distance won't be an issue, best chase performance imo was his win around Aintree which is a flat galloping track very similar to Newbury. I think he'll go off a well supported fav on the day.

[charlie]

He looks to have the perfect profile to me. Right age, had a prep run which is a big advantage, his rating is within the range of previous winners, proved himself in big handicap chases, very consistent record over fences, good win rate, distance won't be an issue, best chase performance imo was his win around Aintree which is a flat galloping track very similar to Newbury. I think he'll go off a well supported fav on the day.

He does tick a lot of boxes Lobos, but I have my reservations.

Yes he won well at Aintree (that race was garbage), but I'd argue (barring his brilliant Cheltenham performance) that he's been thoroughly inconsistent over the last 12 months. He last won in April 2019, and barring Cheltenham he's failed to finish in the top two on 4 chase starts when going off fairly well fancied in 3 of them (4/1, 15/2, 6/1). He lost those 4 chases by an average of nearly 20 lengths. So his recent form over 3m for the last 12 months really isn't great, which is not what you want for a race like this.

He also lacks fluency at his fences, and doesn't have any experience around Newbury (minor negative).

I can see the appeal, but at the same time find him easy to rule out (hugely contradictory I know ). GLGL though. If he wins you can take great delight in throwing this post back in my face.

[Saxon Warrior]

I have been keen on The Conditional for this race ever since he won the Ultima, and was raised to 147.
2nd in the race last year, and still not close to the top of the handicap.

I have added Beware The Bear (33/1), too this week, he has some similar formlines to The Conditional, he won the Ultima the year before, and off a rating of 158 last season he ran within a length of The Conditional in the Ladbroke at Newbury, and is now 10lb better off with him.

lb for lb Beware the Bear’s form in last years Ladbroke was better than Vinndication’s performance in the Ultima off 159, using The Conditional to make the comparison.

I know he is a 10yo but the race doesn’t look better than last years race, and the cruise around Newbury on the gallops morning this week, when he lobbed alongside a pushed along Santini, shows that all is well with the horse, and maybe he could come out in front this year after two 4th placings in the last two years.

Definitely worth an each-way bet.

[Spectre]

I’m with you SW. I had The Conditional, Black Op, and Sam Brown backed ew at the bigger antepost prices, but I backed Beware The Bear at 28/1 ew as soon as BF/PP went 5 places on exactly the same reasoning.

[Captain Chris]

Does anyone know where is best to look for the entries for this as soon as they're released? Concerned that Two For Gold won't be entered and pondering whether to cash out...

[Diamond Geezer]

Entries standing their ground for Saturday

Ballyoptic Vinndication Secret Investor Beware The Bear Kildisart Sam Brown Copperhead Regal Encore Aye Right Mister Malarky Black Op Two For Gold The Conditional La Bague Au Roi Danny Whizzbang The Hollow Ginge Potterman Ardlethen Cloth Cap

[FinalFurlong91]

Looks like we will get proper good ground with almost no rain forecast this week

I imagine a few of the horses that need soft will end up not running