Jumpers to follow 2012-13

[mayo]

SOUS LES CIEUX, for whom Willie Mullins had considerable optimism this season, has died in a schooling accident.

The six-year-old, owned by Susannah Ricci, joined the Closutton yard from France in 2010 and won two hurdle races last season before finishing third in the Grade 1 3m novice hurdle at Punchestown last year.

"It's very unfortunate - he died in a schooling accident. He was going to go novice chasing and was actually a brilliant jumper. I was looking forward to him tackling a fence," said Mullins.

[Lester]

12 To Follow 2012/13 Season
1
Here I list 12 horses that I know are well thought of by connections. Most are unraced and are pretty certain to be winning races this Winter. As ever I recommend backing them 3 times or until they stop winning.
*
Cocktails at Dawn - (Nicky Henderson)
Would of finished second in an Irish Point had he not tipped up at the last. Has now transferred to Nicky Henderson and will be a different animal this Winter. I'm told he's not done anything over hurdles yet so bumpers must be the preferred choice.
*
Comeonginger - (Paul Nicholls)
Has won both point to points for Richard Barber but, has now been transferred to Paul Nicholls. I'm not 100% sure who owns him now but I would imagine it's Paul Barber. A 5 year old by Kings Theatre I would imagine they'll go down the novice route.
*
Definite Maybe - (Martin Todhunter)
This has been passed to me by my main man in the North. Like me he's a fan of the trainer and he's a man that given the tools, can do the job. This horse was 4th in an Aintree bumper and will be a different horse over hurdles. I'm told he's schooled very, very well
*
Eduard - (Nicky Richards)
Another from my Northern man. Trotted up at Kelso and the word is Nicky Richards loves him. Shuh Shuh Gah was 6 lengths behind him that day and that's a horse I know Malcolm Jefferson thinks a lot of. Eduard will go over hurdles and is a cert to win this Winter.
*
For Two - (Paul Nicholls)
He has won a decent hurdle in Auteuil and is a natural over them I hear. He was sold for an absolute packet to Graham Wylie after that race and is one of the best juvenile's if not the best in the Nicholls yard.
*
Katkeu - (David Pipe)
I'm not 100% sure who owns this horse but, he bolted up by 10+ lengths at Auteuil in the Summer and is one I know they love to bits. The yards modus operandi has changed slightly over the years so I wouldn't be at all surprised if they sent him straight over fences.
*
Lac Fontana - (Paul Nicholls)
Yet another French import and one which has some really decent Flat form including a win over 1m 3f and 4th in a Listed contest, rated 95 on the Flat so you'd expect him to progress to a 130'ish horse. Another decent juvenile.
*
Master Malt - (Alistair Whillans)
One I liked at the back end so I was very happy when my Northern man selected this one. He was second in a real decent Ayr bumper and I'm told he has come on bundles since then. He has schooled very well and should pick up a few races this Winter.
*
Nitrogen - (Paul Nicholls)
Nitrogen is a half brother to triple Gold Cup winner Best Mate. He went through the ring for 170,000 euros and I'm pretty sure Graham Roach now owns him. He's one that a lot of people know about so don't expect sexy prices on debut. Certain winner this Winter.
*
Snake Eyes - (Nicky Henderson)
Finished 3rd in a real decent Fairyhouse bumper. Donald McCain & David Pipe have both paid a fortune for the first & second whilst Snake Eyes cost connections well over £100k. Will be a cert in a bumper if they go that route but, has also schooled nicely.
*
Theatre Evening - (Jonjo O'Neil)
Would of won at Dromahane had he not unseated & was bought after that race for almost 200,000 Euros (massive money). This is a difficult yard to get a handle on as this horse could either end up having 3 quiet one's and then handicap's or they go novice route.
*
Wonderful Charm - (Paul Nicholls)
Bought for the yard by the reliable Highflyer Bloodstock, he won a conditions hurdle at Auteuil at the back end of the season and is very highly thought of. Chasing will be his game in time and 2 miles will suit. Sure to win some races this season.

[Sprinter]

Few trainers have made a bigger impression in recent years than Donald McCain. Ballabriggs provided the McCain family with their fifth Grand National victory in 2011 and Donald his first. Last season saw the yard send out a personal best 153 winners and Bankhouse Stables is jam packed with equine talent for the winter ahead.

Donald has recruited heavily from the Irish point field, a source which has served him well in recent seasons, most notably by stable star Peddlers Cross. While the former Champion Hurdle runner-up is set to revert to the smaller obstacles, it is interesting to note Donald nominated Up And Go as his horse to follow for the months ahead.

A wide margin winner of a two and a half miles point at Lemonfield in March, he could be seen in a bumper before turning his attentions to novice hurdles. Donald is also keen on the prospects of Baltmoar. A four year old gelding by Flemensfirth, he won his only point before being purchased by Diane and Grahame Whateley.

Lucinda Russell is another shining star in the north. With the assistance of multiple champion jockey Peter Scudamore, the Perth based outfit were responsible for 57 winners last term and it will be a surprise if that figures isn't surpassed this time.

Rather like the McCain operation, Lucinda has turned to the Irish pointing field for new recruits and is understandably keen on Hexham novice hurdle winner Green Flag. Look out, too, for the once raced Present Lodger. Held in the highest regard by Paul Cashman in Ireland, he won his only start and may have his first run under Rules in the same bumper ill-fated stablemate Brindisi Breeze contested at Musselburgh in November. He could be smart and is very much one to follow.

Having learned his trade under Nicky Henderson, it is no surprise to see Charlie Longsdon making such a big impression. The stable sent out 17 bumper winners at a strike-rate of 28% last season and are particularly strong in the novice hurdle division this time. Spirit of Shankly has won two out of three in bumpers and is all set to go novice hurdling.

Expect him to take high rank, a comment which also applies to the unbeaten Up To Something. Only workmanlike when winning on his hurdling debut at Uttoxeter over the minimum trip, he will be a different proposition when tackling further. The pair could be very good.

Another young trainer to keep tabs on this season is Anthony Honeyball. Having ridden as a conditional jockey for Paul Nicholls, Anthony also worked for Richard Barber. Amongst the eight bumper winners he trained last season, the unbeaten Regal Encore looks the pick. An easy winner at Southwell last winter, he successfully carried a penalty at Chepstow this month. It was his first run since being purchased by champion owner J.P.McManus and he looks a hugely exciting prospect.

Expect him to stay in bumpers this term with the Festival event the ultimate target. Victors Serenade was in the process of running well when making a bad mistake at the fifth last in a competitive handicap chase at Chepstow in October. The Welsh National is his main target and, granted his favoured bottomless ground, he ought to go well.

David Pipe appears very strong in the novice department for the new campaign. Understandably, the head of Pond House is looking forward to seeing Dynaste run over fences for the first time. The six year old was rated 161 over hurdles, having chased home the mighty Big Buck's on his latest three starts and he has the make and shape to develop into an equally good chaser.

Grands Crus is expected to start off his season in either the Paddy Power Gold Cup or the Betfair Chase. Keep an eye out for the grey's full brother Gevrey Chambertin, who looked more than useful in bumpers last season. He will be a real force in staying novice hurdles.

Finally, the trainers' title will be dominated by Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson once again. The bookmakers are expecting the latter to wrestle the title away from Ditcheat and provide the former with his third championship but his first since the 1986/87 season. Both yards have an embarrassment of riches for the winter ahead but pay special attention to Cash And Go (Henderson) and Wonderful Charm (Nicholls).

One Jump Ahead is priced at £7.99 and is available from Mark Howard Publications Ltd. 69 Fairgarth Drive, Kirkby Lonsdale. LA6 2FB & branches of WH Smith Ltd.
Email: mark.howard@mhpublications.co.uk

[mayo]

One sure thing is that when the clocks go back, the jumpers come forward. And so -- as temperatures dip below zero for the first time -- here are 10 jumpers to keep you warm this winter.

Sir des Champs

It is hard to believe, given his accomplishments, that Willie Mullins' star novice could have run four times in bumpers for his previous master Emmanuel Clayeux in France and only have a third placing to show for it. Indeed he was even tried in cheek-pieces for his hurdling debut as a four year-old at Auteuil.

The transformation that has seen the French-bred's unbeaten record stretch now to eight (seven for Mullins) over three seasons is enough to offer hope to even the most recalcitrant, and makes even Hunt Ball's dramatic climb to fame last season appear tame by comparison.

What is perhaps most taking about Sir Des Champs' nap hand of novice chase wins last term was that, without ever being in any way flashy, it appeared every time (whether Leopardstown or Cheltenham) as if he had matters very much under control. Still only six, he bids to emulate War of Attrition for Gigginstown House in the Gold Cup, and provide Willie Mullins with an elusive first winner in the race. Likely to start off in the Durkan Chase at Punchestown.

Hidden Cyclone

Another with aspirations to the highest chasing honours this season is Hidden Cyclone, whose only two career defeats so far have been at the hands of Gigginstown top-notchers First Lieutenant (over hurdles in 2010) and Sir Des Champs earlier this year. His trainer's softly-softly approach could have earned the Cyclone the label of being a Festival-dodger -- as his career so far has avoided any trips to England, or indeed visits to either Punchestown or Fairyhouse during the spring.

However, the patience and kindness shown to date by John 'Shark' Hanlon could be repaid with interest in the season ahead as the seven-year-old approaches the peak of his powers. With the yard under a cloud for much of last season Hidden Cyclone was limited to just a couple of runs but appeared a natural over the larger obstacles both times. It would be interesting to see his handicap mark in England but something like the Hennessy would seem an ideal early-season target given his stamina and love of soft ground.

Dodging bullets

It is always difficult at this stage to gauge how good last year's juvenile hurdlers might have been but one thing is for sure -- it is unusual to find one so close to the top of his peer-group that still qualifies as a novice for the season ahead. That is, however, the position Paul Nicholls finds himself in with Dodging Bullets -- a late acquisition from Irish trainer Andrew Oliver, which only saw a hurdle for the first time in public at the end of February in a Grade 2 at Kempton.

It is to his eternal credit then that he was in a position to finish fourth in the 20-runner Triumph Hurdle less than three weeks later.

He travelled and ran like the best horse in the race that day. The combination of inexperience and the jockey arriving too soon collided to diminish the horse's finishing position. His mishap when on a follow-up mission at Aintree (stablemate fell in front of him) could prove a blessing. Already off the mark last Saturday at Cheltenham, the progressive son of Dubawi returns again for the graded hurdle on the Friday of the Paddy Power meeting. Supreme Novice candidate even now.

arvika ligeonniere

We have had to wait a little longer than expected but it may -- at last this season -- be worth it. There are few more impressive looking horses in training. At over 17 hands he has been carrying the cliched moniker of 'embryo chaser' for quite a while now. Indeed after travelling like a really good horse before failing to stay in the 2010 Spa Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, he confirmed the promise six weeks later by winning the same novice hurdle at Punchestown won by both Copper Bleu and Sizing Europe en route to their Festival success the following season.

Unfortunately, we had to wait over two years for Arvika Ligeonniere's next public appearance (at Punchestown in May). It didn't disappoint. Even the circumspect Willie Mullins admitted his jumping was "electric". Still only seven and with only seven races to date he reminds me of the Dickinsons' The Mighty Mac.

FINGAL BAY

Careers can often rotate on a single turning point. Fingal Bay, even at this early stage of the season, has played his hand as a novice chaser and leads the market for the RSA Chase as a result.

However, if he had retained his unbeaten record instead of suffering a narrow defeat in the Sefton Hurdle at Aintree he would be training his sights this season on Big Buck's as a hurdler.

It is hard to figure that Fingal Bay only made his hurdling debut exactly a year ago yesterday (in Chepstow's Persian War Hurdle) such was his impact last season. He was made to forfeit his Cheltenham Festival engagement with an 11th-hour hamstring injury but, given the fluency of his Chepstow chasing introduction it seems only injury again will prevent him from becoming a leading player in the staying novice division.

boston bob

It is ironic that the build-up to last year's Cheltenham Festival had the match-up between the best staying novice in the UK (Fingal Bay) pitted against the best in Ireland (Boston Bob) as a key thread. As mentioned, Fingal Bay missed the gig entirely and Boston Bob switched to the three-mile Spa Hurdle in the end where he was narrowly defeated by the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. It is to Boston Bob's credit he got as close to victory as he actually did as he neither travelled nor jumped like the horse which had brought its A-game on the day.

From one of the last crops of Bob Back (died at age 30 in early 2011) it will be a big surprise if he isn't in the firing line to emulate another Bob Back, Bobs Worth, in the RSA come March. There he may -- 12 months late -- meet his putative rival Fingal Bay.

Grands crus

It may seem churlish to list Grands Crus as a horse to follow for this campaign, given the height of his achievements in the last two seasons. However, following the tame effort of his final start in the RSA Chase a couple of elements are worth summarising.

The way he races, Grands Crus is not likely to be at his best in the Gold Cup. He is going to be seen to much greater effect where the emphasis is on speed. His victory in the Feltham at Kempton in December was his finest hour last season and a repeat visit for the King George this term would see him an irresistible rival.

Furthermore, his RSA blow-out has a silver lining in that the grey's BHA mark is now just 157 -- 10lbs below his hurdling figure. This will make the Paddy Power Gold Cup fairly irresistible as an entrée in three weeks. The Pipe family has won it just the nine times.

Flemenstar

If Sir Des Champs makes it to Cheltenham on Gold Cup day it may be that his greatest foe will also have travelled over the Irish Sea to meet him. Peter Casey has been receiving offers for stable star Flemenstar with the frequency of 46a buses on the Stillorgan dual-carriageway. His five straight domestic wins -- and in particular his concluding Powers Gold Cup victory -- were the equal of anything Sir Des Champs achieved last season.

His style of running and hallmark spectacular jumping made him exhilarating to watch. Although never tried beyond two and a half miles his pedigree is stacked with stamina -- being by Flemensfirth (sire of Imperial Commander) with a distaff line whose progeny includes both Carvill's Hill and Bregawn. A noted poor traveller he is bound for Cheltenham in March even (according to the trainer) "if I have to carry him on my back myself". Likely to begin in the Fortria at Navan.

zarkandar

An underachiever in the last season the 2011 Triumph Hurdle winner didn't even make it to the racecourse until February of last season. Even at that, it was a rushed preparation to ready him for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. Although he won, he was unimpressive.

His next race -- the Champion Hurdle -- saw him notably weak in the betting on the day. Having never been in contention he stayed on very strongly to finish fifth. A step up to two and a half miles for the Aintree Hurdle was inconclusive as he fell before the race took shape. Like many Triumph Hurdle winners he looks essentially a stayer. However, he could be the one to ruffle the feathers of his illustrious stablemate Big Bucks this season.

Rule the world

An impressive winner of his only point-to-point at Affane (when the notes afterwards read "looks most exciting with a very big future") the portentously named Rule the World did just that in his maiden hurdle at Punchestown when bolting up by 13 lengths recently.

It isn't in the style of the yard for a Mouse Morris inmate to deliver first time in a hurdle. The trainer was characteristically reticent after the event -- a sure sign he's got a good horse. Follow with care.

[mayo]

Another Irish selection robert catterson

Hurricane Fly – Write off the highest-rated hurdler in training at your peril. A brilliant winner of the 2011 Champion Hurdle, the son of Montjeu wasn’t at his best last season but still managed to win two Grade 1s on either side of finishing third at Cheltenham. Looking at the 2013 Champion Hurdle betting, Hurricane Fly looks a mile clear of his opposition. Expect to see the real Hurricane Fly over the coming months so, possibly starting in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown on November 18.

Flemenstar – One of the stories of last season and ended his campaign with a demolition of his opposition in the Powers Gold Cup. Already being touted as a leading Cheltenham Gold Cup contender and due to start off his season in next weekend’s Fortria Chase. Races like the John Durkan Memorial Chase and the King George VI Chase could also be very much on his radar. One of the most exciting horses currently in training.

Sir Des Champs – Unbeaten in seven starts since his French days, Willie Mullins’ six-year-old gradually improved throughout last season before landing the Jewson Novices’ Chase in impressive fashion. Now clear favourite for the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sir Des Champs must improve quite considerably to justify his reputation but looks a hugely exciting prospect. Due to start off his season in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown in early December.

Salsify – Last season’s Cheltenham Foxhunters winner, when given a brilliant ride from Colman Sweeney, and followed up in a similar decent hunters chase at Stratford in June. At his best on good ground and could easily make into a serious Grand National contender come next spring.

Back In Focus – Formerly trained by Howard Johnson, this son of Bob Back didn’t make his belated Irish debut until July of this year. Couldn’t have impressed any more when making most for a bloodless success on chasing debut at Listowel and looks tailor-made for staying chasing. Could be one of Ireland’s leading hopes for the RSA Chase come next March.

Tarla – Returned from a lengthy lay-off to win stylishly twice at Roscommon before impressing in the Grade 3 Grabel Mares Hurdle at Punchestown two weeks ago. Already looks as though she can dominate on the mares’ scene, whether it be over hurdles or fences, over the coming months and could possibly be a threat to her stable mate Quevega in time.

Champagne Fever – Followed in the hoof prints of Cousin Vinny when completing the rare Cheltenham/Punchestown Champion Bumper double last season. Now looks set to go straight over fences, where he could prove just as successful as Florida Pearl, who took a similar route following his bumper season in 1997. And this fellow could very well be the main threat to Simonsig in next March’s Racing Post Arkle Trophy.

Whatever Jacksays – Ireland’s top rated novice hurdler and it’s hardly surprising given that he’s won five of his last six starts under rules. Put decent fields to the sword at both Listowel and Tipperary in his last two outings and has shown a liking for both good and heavy ground conditions. A bold front runner who could take plenty of beating in the top novice hurdles this winter.

Drive Time – Another Graham Wylie-owned gelding in Willie Mullins’ care and he showed his class when winning the big handicap hurdle at this year’s Punchestown festival. Was an early faller when fancied for the Galway Hurdle but could very well make up for that in the months to come. Versatile when it comes to ground conditions, being an American-bred, and has never been beaten when completing under rules.

Zaidpour – An exciting novice two seasons ago and showed that stamina is very much his forte when landing such races as the Galmoy Hurdle last season. At his element when conditions are at its toughest and could be the horse to beat in some of Ireland’s top staying hurdles this season.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Three more from the Donn

There were several performances yesterday at Naas and Galway that were worthy of note, as the new National Hunt season clicks into gear.

Lyreen Legend was one. Dessie Hughes’s horse was a high-class novice hurdler last season, and he was always going to be an exciting prospect over fences.

The son of Saint Des Saints beat Jenari in a novices’ hurdle at Navan last December, before chasing home first Monksland and then Boston Bob in a couple of Grade 2 contests, and he wasn’t beaten far in top contests at the Fairyhouse and Punchestown Festivals.

The most taking aspect of Lyreen Legend’s performance in the two-and-three-quarter-mile beginners’ chase at Galway yesterday was his jumping. He was fluent and confident at just about every one of his obstacles. He jumped to the front over the fifth fence and, although he ceded the lead to Letter Of Credit over the final two fences, Bryan Cooper never looked anxious, and the horse stayed on powerfully around the home turn and up the home straight to win well.

This is usually a high-class novices’ chase – the last three renewals have been won by China Rock, Jessies Dream and Last Instalment – and it looked like it had particular strength in depth this year, with the right horses, Ipsos Du Berlais and Carlingford Lough, filling the places. It was a little disappointing that the winning time was over eight seconds slower than the time that Selection Box clocked in winning the handicap chase run over the same trip a half an hour later, but they went steadily enough through the early stages, and that probably negatively affected the winning time.

Lyreen Legend was rated 142 over hurdles, and he jumps fences so well that there is every chance he can go even higher as a chaser. He could be one of the top staying novice chasers in Ireland this term, although it may be that he will need an ease in the ground to be at his best.

Lyreen Legend’s old sparring partner Jenari also looked really good in winning his beginners’ chase at Naas. There wasn’t much between the pair (2lb according to official ratings) when they were both novice hurdlers last season. Jenari finished second to Lyreen Legend in that novices’ hurdle at Navan in December, but he won the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival in which Lyreen Legend was third, and he fell at the third last flight when still travelling well in the Grade 1 contest at the Punchestown Festival in which Lyreen Legend also finished third.

Fairly weak in the market before yesterday’s race, Jenari was ridden patiently by Robbie Power, well back behind market protagonists Far Away So Close, Mount Bennulben and Dylan Ross, who all raced quite handily. No better than ninth as they turned for home, JP McManus’s gelding made nice ground on the far side in the home straight, jumped the last two fences well and stayed on strongly up the run-in under essentially just a hands-and-heels ride from Power to get the better of Dylan Ross, with the pair of them finishing clear of the potentially high-class Mount Benbulben.

Like Lyreen Legend, Jenari is only five, and he could make up into a high-class novice chaser this term. He showed plenty of pace here over two miles and, while he has won over two and a half over hurdles, it may be that they will keep him at the minimum trip for now.

Then there was Hidden Cyclone. It was good to see Shark Hanlon’s horse back. He was making his seasonal debut against some race-fit rivals, and he was competing over a distance that was probably well short of his best, so he did well to win. Also, he probably had a fair bit more in hand than the winning margin, given how he pricked his ears and hung to his left over the last.

A classy novice hurdler two seasons ago, this was just Hidden Cyclone’s third ever chase. He did well to beat Foildubh and Rathlin, both of whom had had a run this season already, and he can go on from this now. He probably does need a cut in the ground to be at his best, and so he may be more a Lexus Chase or an Irish Hennessy horse than a Cheltenham Gold Cup horse. It’s appetite-whetting stuff.

[JohnC]

Came across a couple of nice blogs

Young Racegoer

http://theyoungracegoer.com/2012/10/23/10-jumps-horses-to-follow-2012-13/

Spirit Of Shankly
Form: 71-13
Charlie Longsdon
4yo Sulamani (IRE)-Lago D’Oro

A very promising type who was unlucky on his debut but since took two bumpers in grand style. He was meant to run in the Aintree bumper but missed that opportunity and he made a promising start to hurdles when chasing home Hawkhill and Princely Player, both who were slightly closer to the pace and had a lot more hurdling experience. That possibly cost him that race and far more is to come with time and experience. He could make into a strong novice hope for the Festival.
Court Minstrel
Form: 3/1214-1
Evan Williams
5yo Court Cave (IRE) – Theatral

Smart bumper horse last year when winning twice and not finishing out of the top four in his other three starts. That included when finishing strongly in the Aintree bumper behind The New One. However staying trips and obstacles was always going to see a lot more improvement and he duly won really well in a good Cheltenham race at the weekend over 2 mile. I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t go up in trip some time this year and he could make up into a Neptune Novices’ type come March
Oscar Nominee
Form: 9/81313-
Nicky Henderson
5yo Old Vic – Native Bid (IRE)

He was on my list last year and the way he ended last season, there was no way he wasn’t going to be on again. He was extremely impressive when winning albeit a poor maiden hurdle and although he finished last of three after that, he hated the ground and the form was given an almighty boost by the winner Cinders And Ashes who won the Supreme. He wasn’t that convincing when winning at Doncaster after but the step up in trip saw a huge run when his inexperience told at the Festival. However a place in the Martin Pipe still warrants huge respect and i’m fascinated as to where they go with him. I think he could be thrown in off 139 especially on a flatter course over this sort of trip but chasing could also be open for him.
Regal Encore
Form: 1-1
Anthony Honeyball
4yo Kings Theatre (IRE) – Go On Eileen (IRE)

Won a bumper in great style at Southwell in February on the a/w and was bought after by JP McManus which is a tip in its own. Then duly won really well again in what looked a strong bumper on paper at Chepstow a couple of weeks ago. Both times he has travelled like a class act and though he didn’t have to show it on debut, he also showed he can quicken too. He literally could be anything now going hurdling though it wouldn’t surprise me if you saw him in a Listed bumper before that. I wouldn’t want to take him on just yet.
Back In Focus
Form: F/2118/21
Willie Mullins
7yo Bob Back (USA) – Dun Belle (IRE)

Another I’ve had my on for quite a bit but he clearly had a lot of problems last year and this could just be the season where he makes up for it. He’s looked a classy chaser in the making and after an okay run back in a poor race at Tipperary, he showed what he could do when an extremely impressive winner of a Beginner’s chase at Listowel, beating White Star Line into total submission. That rival has had a good bit of experience already and is no pushover but he absolutely demolished him on bottomless ground. His most impressive performances have been on terrible ground and I’d rate him to be a lot of top chasers when the ground is in his favour. It remains to be seen what he can do when he doesn’t get heavy ground but if campaigned in Ireland, I think he could make hay.
Bradley
Form: 21812-14
Fergal O’Brien
8yo Karinga Bay – Good Taste

Burst onto the scene last year after being a pointer for years and won the Royal Artillery before finishing sixth in the Foxhunters. Beat the rock solid Wide Receiver at Haydock after that and then took the scalp also or Turko back at Cheltenham. His jumping can be a bit scratchy and that again was shown when fourth at the weekend in a good handicap behind Balthazar King. That would also have been over a trip that is inadequate for him and so expect him to be upped back to 3m2f soon. He goes in all ground and if brushing up his jumping he could make into a superb type for all the big nationals. There’s a lot more to come from him and he’s worth tracking like a hawk for an up and coming trainer who is underrated.
Billy Merriott
Form: 222/732F-1
Paul Nicholls
6yo Dr Massini (IRE) -Hurricane Bella (IRE)

I know somebody who will be pleased with the inclusion of this horse. Billy Merriott is an up and coming gelding trained by the master Paul Nicholls and he could be thrown in off a mark of 123 over hurdles. He beat the decent Monturgeon last time comfortably over 2m4f and over that sort of trip where he’s promised to stay, he is well treated. Apparently he goes for a handicap hurdle before eventually going chasing ear to the new year and again that should show him in good light.
Ambion Wood
Form: 21/3212511-
Victor Dartnell
6yo Oscar (IRE) – Dorans Grove

Not as excited for many more than this one this season. he improved rapidly through last year over hurdles, ending with a really strong win in a good race at Sandown off top weight and following up extremely easily at Perth when showing that 3m+ was within his compass. However chasing was always going to see him in better light and seeing as he’s still inexperienced and rated 150 already over hurdles, then he could go right to the top of the chasing game. If I have any antepost bet now it would be this la for the RSA Chase.
King Of The Night
Form: 151F0/114-3
Harry Fry
8yo Lomitas – Kaiserlerche (GER)

Won two good handicaps well in Autumn 2011 for Paul Nicholls but went totally off the boil after that with a poor run in the Coral Hurdle and thean even worse one on the flat. However has joined the satellite yard of Harry Fry and has schooled over fences over the summer, starting really well when third at Cheltenham over the weekend. He has reportedly been electric in his schooling and bar a mistake 4 out he put up a seriously taking round of jumping. He can only come on for that and in what looked a strong race for the grade,he didn’t lose any reputation at all. I could definitely see him being aimed for something like the Jewson Novices’ Chase won by Sir Des Champs last year but he could definitely have some big prizes in him this winter though he hasn’t really been proven on softer ground yet.
Hildisvini
Form: 300151-1
6yo Charlie Longsdon
Milan – Site Mistress (IRE)

Didn’t strike as being a real chasing type but jumped beautifully on debut at Huntingdon for a novice and looks a natural already. That was a decent chase like many have been already this year nut he looked the winner quite a bit out and didn’t really have to be extended for a clinical success. He knows how to win and there could be a good few races for him over the season. He isn’t exuberant over his fences, just very smart and can get himself out of trouble. That is always a big help for a horse and he can go on for that debut.

[JohnC]

The Horse Racing Blog Ten Dark Horses To Follow For The National Hunt Season 2012/2013

http://thehorseracingblog1.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/the-horse-racing-blog-ten-dark-horses.html

1. Peddlers Cross



Some may ask how a Champion Hurdle runner-up is a dark horse? The answer is simple. 2012/2013 is a recovery mission for Peddlers Cross. He was last seen finishing well down the field in the 2m 5f Jewson Novice Chase when favourite at the Cheltenham Festival, after which his trainer Donald McCain immediately stated his stable star would revert back to hurdles in 2012/2013. That run at Cheltenham brought to an end what was ultimately an unsuccessful novice chasing campaign. His efforts over fences never replicated his brilliance over the smaller obstacles. It seemed the natural athleticism and spine-tingling speed at which he could get from one side of a hurdle to the other were not present when he jumped a fence. I would attribute this to being his main downfall and would help to explain why he never appeared to recapture the form he displayed over hurdles. It was undisputed that he was top class over hurdles and I think the gelding has sneaked under the radar a bit for this coming season. At 25-1 ante-post for the Champion Hurdle, I think he is real value assuming that all is well with his health. I say this as I think there may have been a bit of a problem with Peddlers Cross last year. Donald McCain constantly re-iterated that his horse was working as well as ever at home, but a decision on his Cheltenham Festival target was consistently delayed. Whether he was simply papering over the cracks, or connections were running scared of Sprinter Sacre, I don't know, I'm afraid. But I'm 99% certain there was more to it than met the eye. My gut feeling tells me that Peddlers Cross was not firing on all cylinders. Hopefully after a summer off and some time to recharge the batteries, this horse will justify my faith in him when putting up bold displays in the top class 2 mile
hurdles this year.

2. Champion Court



The horse I call the 'bridesmaid'. Always in the shake up, never runs a bad race, but always finds one too good. He was 2nd on numerous occasions in novice chases last year, notably to Grands Crus at the Open Meeting in November and then more recently to Sir Des Champs at the Festival. Like so many front-running chasers he races with real zest and loves to attack his fences. It just depends on whether there is one good enough to get passed him. There are never two, but nearly always one ! In my opinion he is a 2 and a half miler. He gets every yard of the trip and making it a stamina test through his front-running style is the ideal way to ride him. Stepping him up to 3 miles means he is less effective when ridden from the front. Unfortunately, finishing runner up on so many occasions has come at a cost. Getting so close to the top class novices (but being so far ahead of the others !) has meant his handicap rating of 155 is very similar to those who have been his conquerors. Grands Crus is rated 157 and Silviniaco Conti, 156. Therefore if these horses run up to their ratings next year, the case of 'seconditus' he caught last year could be present again in 2012/2013. However, he may well still be on the upgrade and second season chasers have excellent records in the big handicaps, such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup. His trainer, Martin Keighley, has stated that his horse will probably start in a graduation chase as he thinks it may not be fair for his stable star to run consistently well in handicaps and ruin his handicap mark. In conclusion, I feel the coming year will be another difficult one for Champion Court unless he has considerably improved over the summer. I expect to see him living up to the name I have dubbed him once again this year. He is however a swinger certainty, so make sure he is on your slip, whoever else you may fancy!

3. Tistory

Carries the tag of being the most exciting novice hurdler at Nicky Henderson's yard this year. He is owned by Judy Wilson whose blue and green silks are synonymous with crowd favourites such as French Opera and Greenhope. Coincidently Tistory is a half brother to Punchestowns, possibly the most talented horse to carry Judy Wilson's colours. The gelding has won three bumpers, two in France and one in England - a battling win by 3/4 length at Ludlow on March 1st. This win brought about plans for a trip over the Irish Sea to compete in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown. However, a ruling about the races Tistory had won in France prevented him from competing. For those who care, the bumpers he won were non-thoroughbred, as such they are classified as flat races in Ireland whereas they are not in England. Basically, making things pointlessly complicated. Nonetheless, the bottomless underfoot conditions probably would have meant the horse would've been withdrawn anyway. Nicky Henderson was speaking at his owners open day on Sunday where he was happy to express his high hopes for the novice hurdler this year. His exact description was, 'Tistory is undoubtedly one of our big hopes for novice hurdle honours this year'. In simpler words. This horse is one to have on your betting slip.

4. Last Instalment



Which horse was the best staying novice chaser in Ireland last year? First Lieutenant , Last Instalment or Sir Des Champs? (wouldn't mind to be Michael O'Leary when you think of these 3 horses, however much I dislike flying with Ryanair!) Unfortunately, we were deprived of seeing the true outcome last year when Last Instalment was injured in action whilst winning the Dr P.J Moriarty novice chase at Leopardstown in February. The 7 year old is unbeaten over fences, defeating some high class horses in doing so. Most notably Cheltenham Festival runner-up First Lieutenant and 3rd place finisher Four Commanders. Up until now, he has readily swept aside his competitors in a rather nonchalant manner. He just carries on galloping until he grinds his rivals into the ground. Very similar to how Denman used to race. I'm not saying he has the quality of Denman, but his main attribute is to stay, not to do his competitors for toe! In other words he could be put into the bracket as 'an old fashioned, proper staying chaser'. His victory over First Lieutenant at Leopardstown at Christmas was very impressive. First Lieutenant couldn't live with the Phillip Fenton trained gelding that day. Last Instalment appeared to crack him by simply galloping him into the ground. However, I am aware that First Lieutenant runs his best race at Cheltenham in the spring on a stiff track when the ground is firmer. Bearing this in mind, I think its a fair argument that First Lieutenant's efforts in the winter are not a fair reflection of how good he is. However, at the end of the day, he was thumped by Last Instalment over Christmas and I don't think he ran that poorly that day. Last Instalment then proceeded to win the Dr P.J Moriarty at Leopardstown in his normal nonchalant manner, while injured I hasten to add. Also I think the fact he is a true 'staying chaser' is to his benefit. I can see him 'out-staying' horses in long distance races this year. If the Gold Cup is his main target, I think a stiff track such as Cheltenham and a true dog eat dog finish up the hill will play to his strengths.

5. Balder Succes



When stepped up in class to the top quality juvenile races last spring his form figures read: fell after a mile and unseated rider at the 1st. So we have no possible inclination of how good he may be. However if we take his 3 wins prior to Cheltenham and Punchestown, he could be anything. The gelding won in ultra-impressive style on all 3 occasions and was not asked a question in all 3 races. When he went to Cheltenham all the talk surrounding this horse was around whether he would he be able to act on a sounder surface as he had done in those 3 crushing wins when the ground had more give. His starting price of 15-2 tells you that nobody really knew and unfortunately we still don't! The TV screen didn't give you a very conclusive view of his fall in the Triumph at Cheltenham. I'm just wondering whether they were going half a stride to quick for him on the firmer ground? He didn't seem to be struggling before his fall, but you wonder as the fall came at the hurdle after the pace was injected into the race. The race at Punchestown was just one of those days. He was awkward at the first and left Choc Thornton with no chance but to exit via the side door. Oh well, as Grandma always says, there's always tomorrow! Your guess as to how good Balder Succes is are as good as mine. One thing I do think is that he will relish a step up in trip as 2 miles is on the sharp side for him. I think 2m 4f is his optimum distance and he will be stepped up to this trip after a warm up race, maybe in what was the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham at the Open Meeting.

[JohnC]

6. New Years Eve



If you attended a 2012 Cheltenham Festival preview evening in Newmarket last year, you will be aware of the supreme confidence surrounding one horse - and it wasn't Frankel for once! It was about a horse from John Ferguson's yard who had won 2 egg and spoon bumper races around Ludlow and Market Rasen. Heading into the Champion Bumper, New Years Eve appeared to be the only horse that could win the race. He was backed into 9-2 favourite and the amount of confidence behind him was unbelievable! Unfortunately, the event turned into a bit of a damp squid when the gelding finished 2nd having failed to quicken past Champagne Fever up the hill. In hindsight, only one horse has headed Champagne Fever and New Years Eve probably came closest to repeating this in the most competitive bumper of the year. Ferguson then sent the horse to Punchestown for their Champion Bumper in April. The race was run in a bog and New Years Eve was effectively pulled up on the home bend and finished walking across the line. I think he simply hated the ground. The fact is that this horse is obviously extremely talented and could be a very exciting recruit to the novice hurdle ranks this year. I think he may prefer good ground, if this is the case it would possibly suggest he will run his best races in the spring when the ground dries out. Bearing this in mind he may be a Supreme Novice hurdle contender for the Festival 2013.

7. Montbazon



One of my favourite horses in training. I've always got the feeling that Alan King thinks this horse could be exceptionally good. He is one of three horses at his yard that are stepping up from the novice hurdle ranks this year that all look high class. Grumeti, Balder Succes and Montbazon, which one is the best? The answer is...pass. I have no idea. But I've always got the sense that this horse has a real soft spot in his trainers heart. He was near enough the best bumper horse around the year before last. That campaign culminated in a second place finish behind Steps To Freedom in the Aintree bumper. Although, I am never convinced how strong a form line this race is with previous winners such as Megastar, Sitting Tennant and Pangbourne not going on to be anything special. However, Montbazon did beat home that year high class novice hurdlers such as 2012 Supreme Novice Hurdle winner Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob. He started last year in the bumper at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November, which I was there to see. He finished third but didn't look anywhere near properly tuned up and looked a bit fat in addition to Alan Kings horses running poorly for all 3 days of the meeting. His novice hurdle campaign began at Newbury with a difficult debut task against the classy Colour Squadron, going off at 5-1, he finished a creditable 2nd, beaten a length. He then won a confidence building exercise around Plumpton against a bunch of trees before heading back to Newbury to renew rivalries with Colour Squadron. In the meantime Colour Squadron would have probably won the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown if he could run in a straight line! Montbazon won that day at Newbury putting in their place other promising hurdlers such as All The Aces and Vulcanite, although he was assisted by Colour Squadron's fall at the second last, I think that Montbazon just about had him held. The end of year assessment loomed at Cheltenham the following month. Starting at 15-2 in the Supreme Novices Hurdle he never quite jumped with the slickness and fluency required to stay in contention in the 2 mile helter skelter opener to the Festival. However, stay in contention he did! He was bang there at the last with eventual winner Cinders And Ashes whose mistake at the last, where he knocked the hurdle flat, probably put off Montbazon who put in an awkward leap at the hurdle. The gelding kept tabs with the top four and finished 1 3/4 lengths 4th. Not a bad effort! A real improvement on his other runs where horses he had beaten before such as Vulcanite and Colour Sqaudron were well over 10 lengths behind him. I don't know what Alan King has in plan for this horse this year. I would imagine the plan is to stick to hurdles for another season and we may see him entered in the top 2 mile hurdle races this year. I remember Alan King saying Montbazon was quite hard to train because he suffers with chronic sore shins. Bearing this in mind, I don't know how many times he will appear this season but I would advise you to look out for him when he does.

8. Tetlami



Probably Nicky Henderson's 2nd best 2 mile novice hurdler last year after Darlan - who was probably just about the best of them all. After two pretty promising novice hurdle victories at Sandown and Kempton beating decent horses such as Vulcanite and Knight Pass, he won a 'jumpers bumper' at Kempton as his prep run for a crack at the Supreme Novice Hurdle. He was bang in contention at the third last and looked a likely winner before fading to finish 9th beaten 12 lengths. However, if you look at the scope of this chestnut you would say he is made for chasing. I don't know what the plan is for this horse but I hope he goes novice chasing this winter. This is because I would imagine he will be a better chaser than he was a hurdler. I also think he has the ability to be a really smart smart horse over 2 or 2 1/2 miles where he can use his natural speed and scope to take lengths out of his rivals through jumping with accuracy at real pace. Personally, I think he fits the mould of a smart novice chaser who could put in a bold display in the Grand Annual at The Festival. Previous winners such as Bellvano, Oh Crick and Pigeon Island were all novices.

9. Sonofvic



This is a contentious selection. He would have been in many peoples ten to follow at this time last year after a promising hurdler career was switched to novice chasing. He was supposed to excel last year over the bigger obstacles and was the source of much ante-post RSA betting interest. However, not all went to plan. A very good effort behind Grands Crus on his debut meant he was only beaten 2 lengths by the ante-post RSA favourite. It was his next run on New Years Day that baffled me. Constant re-iteration that he was really classy from his trainer Paul Nicholls and his promising debut run meant there was massive market confidence behind the horse as he was sent off 6-5 favourite. He was a staying on 5th when he slipped on landing taking the fence at the top of the hill and left Ruby Walsh with almost no chance. Somehow he managed to keep the partnership intact and finish the race aboard the 7 year old. Disregarding Ruby Walsh's brilliance in the saddle, he wasn't winning the race and it was ultimately a poor effort when everything looked so positive. After that his novice chase campaign was scrapped so he could mature a bit more mentally and physically. Remember this horse has only seen a racecourse 5 times so is still relatively inexperienced. He was kept off the track until the Cheltenham Festival came along in March where he was entered in the Pertempts Final 3 mile hurdle race. Although he fell at the last and the Racing Post description says 'weakening', he was only 7 lengths 5th at the time. For a horse who had never run in a hustly bustly handicap and was competing against very experienced handicappers, I thought it was a really good effort. With another summers maturing I think Sonofvic could prove to be the horse that everyone has been crowing about for the last 2 years. By fulfilling his potential I expect to see him putting in bold displays in staying novice chases this season. I think he is a horse that needs a stiff track and a stamina test to see him in his best light. Therefore, I would imagine he will be a regular visitor to tracks such as Cheltenham, Chepstow and Newbury.

10. Mount Benbulben



Gordon Elliot normally has one horse lined up for a victory at the Cheltenham Festival and he's normally pretty vocal in doing so! At the 2011 Festival he had two winners in the shape of Chicago Grey and Carlito Brigante. Both had been beautifully laid out for their races and both won with a bit in hand too. At the 2012 Festival he didn't have a winner. I suppose you can never expect too much from the most competitive racing festival in the world ! However, the horse he was very vocal about this year was Mount Benbulben. Apparently the gelding had been working superbly on the gallops and had a brilliant chance in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle on Gold Cup Day. He was comprehensively beaten the best part of 20 lengths, finishing 7th. His form before that run had stacked up pretty well. In previous runs he had beaten subsequent Punchestown Champion Bumper winner Lovethehigherlaw around Limerick. Over hurdles he had beaten subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Rebel Fitz and he had also got the better of Jetson who went on to win the valuable Pertemps Hurdle Qualifier at Leopardstown over Christmas. The only horse who had beaten him over hurdles last year was Boston Bob, the best novice hurdler to come out of Ireland last year. I think there were 3 or 4 competing to be the second best and this horse was right up there. I don't know quite what happened at Cheltenham. Perhaps he ran not 100% like many of Gordon Elliot's horses did that week or maybe his first effort on good ground and over 3 miles had caught him out. I think he may require a bit of cut in the ground, but if he does get it, I think this horse could be a serious threat in staying hurdles in Ireland this year.

[postmanpat]

Shameless lifted from olbg ...kudos to Adrian


I thought I would compile a list of some of the less obvious horses that could be worth following throughout the jumps season. I find it rather boring to point out the obvious big names and big race novice winners from last term, tending to focus on the lesser exposed potential handicap prospects and once-raced bumper winners looking to make the grade over hurdles this time around.

1. ABBEY GARTH (5 b g Dr Massini - Elegant Gale)
Form: 1550- Trainer: Nicky Richards Owner: J P McManus

This gelding made a winning start to his career when landing a bumper at Musselburgh on New Year's Day, clearly expected to do so as the 2/1 market leader; in touch and travelled well throughout under a waiting ride at the rear of the field, making smooth progress into contention half a mile from home but running green inside the final furlong, keeping on well to see off George Fernbeck by a neck. He was snapped up by J P McManus not long after and made his debut over timber in a 2m NH novices' hurdle at Doncaster towards the end of February; 14/1, proved keen in behind the leaders but few were going better than this gelding at the top of the straight, holding every chance after the second last but fading out of contention after the final flight to come home in fifth behind Oscar Nominee (beaten 14 lengths). His next outing came in a six-runner 2m novices' hurdle at Ayr the following month, going off a 13/8 chance; put in a novicey round of jumping under a hold up ride, moving closer down the back straight but unable to sustain his effort after fluffing the second from home, losing touch and not persevered with as he finished last of the five. His final outing of last season came in a 2m novices' hurdle at Market Rasen in April, for which he was anchored at the back of the main group until moving closer after the fifth flight, ridden before three out and unable to get close to the principals, eased right off and coming home last of the 13 finishers. He is a lot better than the bare form of his three outings over hurdles can communicate, travelling just about best of all on his debut over timber until proving unable to see things out having refused to settle early; his jumping let him down on his next two outings when far from knocked about in a lost cause, the margin of defeat last time accentuated by his jockey easing right off before two out; type to do well in handicap company this season if tidying up his act in the jumping department, possessing plenty of natural ability and the size/scope to improve for obstacles.

2. ANGE BLANC (4 gr g Keltos - Trasimene)
Form: 1- Trainer: Noel Meade Owner: Gigginstown House Stud

Out of a half sister to the yard's mercurial but very talented hurdler Harchibald, this gelding made his debut outing in a well-contested bumper at Punchestown (heavy) back in February, going off co-favourite of three at 7/2. He raced on the outer in the group behind the principals, moving closer from half a mile out and arriving on the scene going strongly over two furlongs out, shaken up to lead over a furlong out and keeping on well for hand riding to run out a comfortable 2¾ length winner over Kauto Grand Mogol. He was subsequently purchased by Gigginstown House Stud following that victory, but he failed to make it to the track again thereafter, presumably skipping the top bumper race at the Punchestown festival on account of the atrocious ground conditions. He is type to do better still in his second season anyway, and the race he won on debut has already produced a couple of useful-looking subsequent winners in Kauto Grand Mogol and Summer Star; no surprise whatsoever to see this grey gelding develop into a serious Supreme Novice Hurdle contender as the season progresses; very exciting prospect.

3. BALLYBOUGH PAT (5 b g Waky Nao - Princess Ruth)
Form: 1- Trainer: Anthony Honeyball Owner: Favourites Racing

£38,000 purchase who joined current connections after a couple of outings in the pointing scene, winning the second of those by a neck at Dromahane at the end of last year (good form). He kicked off his career under rules in style when landing something of a gamble (11/4 from 7/2 on course) in a Ffos Las bumper back in February; raced enthusiastically up with the leaders and travelled powerfully throughout, coasting into the lead passing the three furlong marker and still on the bridle at the furlong pole, shaken up close home to maintain his clear lead as he came home 5 lengths clear of Rydon Pynes. It was a visually taking display from a gelding who will only improve for the switch to obstacles, seeing off one with bits and pieces of useful bumper form in devastatingly impressive fashion; chasing will be the making of him, but ought to prove capable of making an impact over timber this term and could take high rank in the novice hurdling division if his debut performance is anything to go by; will more than likely want anything upwards of 2m 4f.

4. BOB'S LEGEND (6 b g Bob's Return - Pepsi Starlet)
Form: 90/666- Trainer: Martin Bosley Owner: K Quinn/C Benham/I Saunders

Failed to make in an impact in a pair of bumpers for Linda Jewell a couple of seasons ago, but very much caught the eye in a trio of outings over timber for his new yard last term, kicking off with a sixth place finish in a 2m novices' hurdle at Uttoxeter last November, well off the pace at the back of the field until making sustained progress under a kind ride from two out to eventually finish within 17 lengths of the winner. His next outing saw him contest a 2m NH maiden hurdle at Fakenham a month later, sent off at odds of 20/1; again raced well off the pace in last for much of the way, blundering at the fifth flight of hurdles and effectively allowed to complete in his own time thereafter, eventually finishing in sixth behind Jimbill (beaten 63 lengths). His third and final outing of last season came in the same 2m NH novices' hurdle at Doncaster as contested by fellow list member Abbey Garth; 100/1, raced at the rear of the field yet again and became outpaced as the tempo increased on the approach to the third last, making promising late progress under considerate handling to come home in sixth behind Oscar Nominee (beaten 21 lengths). He is surely capable of a whole lot better when allowed to run on his own merits, dropped out well off the pace on all three outings and unable to show his true worth under tender handling, doing well to get as close as he did on a couple of occasions. It is unlikely he will ever prove to be anything out of the ordinary and comes from a stable that called hardly be called prolific, but he has shown enough to suggest there is a race in him somewhere at some stage off an initial mark of 106, clearly brought along last season with handicaps in mind; probably wants further than 2m.

5. BRASSICK (5 b g Presenting - No More Money)
Form: 1- Trainer: Charlie Longsdon Owner: Paul Murphy

Half brother to bumper/very useful 2m-2m 4f hurdle (including at Grade 3 level)/2m 1f chase winner Skint out of a half sister to 2001 Grand National hero Red Marauder and several other winners. This gelding's sole outing last term came in a bumper at Wetherby in late March, going off the 9/4 market leader (wore a tongue-tie); raced a little worse than midfield for the most part, making smooth progress to track the leaders from over a half a mile from home, travelling best of all at the top of the straight and taking over approaching the final furlong, green off the bridle but forging clear in the closing stages to see off Saints And Sinners by 3¾ lengths (pair clear). It was an ultimately impressive winning debut from a gelding who isn't bred to shine in bumpers by any means, but the manner in which he travelled and then picked the leaders up was impressive, showing clear signs of inexperience when asked to win the race but proving strong at the finish, as per his stout pedigree. He is another who will excel over fences one day, but half brother Skint proved a useful sort over the smaller obstacles and no real reason why this son of Presenting cannot follow suit this term; likely to stay well if needs be.

6. BRAVE VIC (4 b g Old Vic - Baliya)
Form: 2 Trainer: Gary Moore Owner: R Henderson

£25,000 full brother to promising point-to-point winner Edmund Kean, out of a mare from an Aga Khan family. He made his debut outing right at the beginning of the current season, contesting a 1m 6f bumper at Fontwell in early May, going off a largely ignored 12/1 chance; raced towards the rear of the field and never threatened to land in a blow at any stage behind the clear leader, left with plenty do to (still at the rear of the main group at the top of the home straight) but finishing off to good effect under a kind ride to lead home the remainder, some 7 lengths behind odds-on favourite No No Charlie. It was more than likely just an ordinary affair, but this son of Old Vic shaped as though having possessing a fair amount of ability, making up a significant amount of ground throughout the final furlong to finish nine lengths clear of the third; ought to win a bumper before finding an opening over hurdles.

[mayo]

Gary OBrien 3 fo follow ...
DON COSSACK is one of the most exciting national hunt prospects Ireland has had for some time and it will be very disappointing if he fails to take high rank in the novice hurdle division this winter. For a horse of his size - he stands all of seventeen hands - the Sholokhov gelding is not short of pace, as he demonstrated when annihilating his rivals in an unbeaten three-race bumper campaign last season. He clearly handles testing going very well but is expected to be able to cope effectively with a sounder surface.

ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE produced one of the most taking debut performances over fences you will see when hacking up at Punchestown in May and if Willie Mullins can keep him right he should be a major force in some of the top novice chases. The giant French import had been off the track for over two years through injury prior to that and he makes far more appeal as an RSA Chase type than stable-companion Back In Focus, who is quoted at the same price at the moment. He didn't appear to quite stay three miles in the 2010 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle but that took place in unusually demanding conditions and he has clearly strengthened up considerably in the interim.

CARLINGFORD LOUGH has become a real favourite of mine in his brief career to date and the best is almost certainly still to come from John Kiely's gelding. An effortless winner of valuable handicap hurdles at Bellewstown and Galway this summer, he is still open to any amount of improvement after just seven career starts and is sure to have learned plenty from his chase bow back at Ballybrit in September. He is best on good ground but handles soft well enough and could easily be a Cheltenham contender under either code.

[mayo]

Tony Ennis ......

AMBION WOOD made real progress over hurdles last season and could prove to be a high-class novice chaser this term. Trainer Victor Dartnall is excited about the prospects for the son of Oscar this season and regular pilot Denis O'Regan is also buzzing at the thought of this classy sort going steeplechasing.
*
COTTON MILL is a horse who impressed me over hurdles last season and could make in to a high-class performer this season. John Ferguson's charge was the only horse that could go with Simonsig at the Cheltenham Festival before he crashed out at the second from home. He backed that up with a solid display in top company at Aintree and I expect him to take high rank amongst the two and a half mile hurdlers in 2012/2013.

LOVCEN looks a horse to follow this season whether it be in novice chases or over hurdles. Alan King's Tiger Hill gelding made a massive impression last season culminating in success in Grade One company at Aintree. The seven-year-old ran a cracker when fourth at the Cheltenham Festival last term and looks set for more glory in the upcoming months.*
*

[Sprinter]

Think we probably have a lot of these covered already ...40 to follow from another board

Ambion Wood
Boston Bob
Captain Conan
Cash and Go
Champagne Fever
Clondaw court
Definite Maybe
Definite Memories
Don Cossack
Eduard
Fingal Bay
For Two
Fox Run
Gevrey Chambertin
Hinterland
Ile De Re
Its a Gimmie
Knight Pass
Knock A Hand
Lookout Mountain
Mac Aeda
Master Malt
Master Of The Game
Melodic Rendezvous
Oscar Nominee
Our Father
Pont Alexandre
Present Lodger
River Maigue
Rocky Creek
Simonsig
Sir Des Champs
Snake Eyes
Spirit Of Shankly
Sprinter Sacre
Super Duty
Tistory
Un Atout
Up And Go
Wonderful Charm

[Sprinter]

The Resident ( RacingUK)

My 10 to follow

I have had a good read through the Timeform Horses To Follow and my notes from last year and here are five of my 10 for the upcoming season, the rest will be in tomorrow's blog:

Balder Success (Alan King) Mr King spoke very highly of this horse early in the season and although Grumeti seemed to get all the headlines, the trainer, who is not one to be too bullish about his horses, seems to think he will be even better this year. Ignore his last two runs and look out for him early in the season on a flat track.

Ile de Re (Donald McCain) Not many horses complete the Chester Cup/Northumberland Plate double and with the schooling skills of Donald McCain you can expect this six-year-old grey to be a real force in handicaps and cup races up to 20 furlongs especially on good and good to soft ground conditions.

Kentford Grey Lady (Emma Lavelle) Beaten in a couple of races by the likes of Quevega and Violin Davis early on last season turned out to be pretty solid form by the end of March. She stays the three miles well and could be tried over hurdles and fences in the coming season and is one to stay on the right side of when the going is soft.

Ted Spread (Paul Nicholls) A classy ex-Flat horse when trained by Mark Tompkins, he started off the season with a couple of decent performances but, after flopping in the Imperial Cup, he has had a breathing operation over the summer and that alone can produce massive improvement to a horse’s performance, especially in Ted Spread's case if the ground is better than good.

Wings of Icarus (David Pipe) Will be starting off a rating of just 107 this year and that could turn out to be a lowly mark for this five-year-old gelding. He was green and unfurnished last year and his pedigree suggests that a distance further than two and a half miles will be the place to start.

Simenon (Willie Mullins) Another ex-flat horse this time with Andrew Balding, Willie Mullins is the master with these type of horses as he showed on more than one occasion last year. One of the things I like about this horse is his high cruising speed and that he travels so well in his races; an ideal horse for the back-to-lay brigade and he has the ability to handle most ground conditions. You may not get fancy prices about any Mullins' horses but more often than not they will hit the target.

Doyle Carte (Donald McCain) The Grand National winning trainer will have many a decent hurdler this year but I was more than impressed with her bumper win at Catterick. A half sister to the Elite Racing Club star Dandino and the trainer seems to think this horse will grow into her massive frame this year and although perhaps not one to follow first time out her progress should be monitored.

Jayandbee (Philip Hobbs) Mr Hobbs is someone you should always keep on the right side of and this five year old seems to be a horse that will improve with age. Richard Johnson has given this horse a somewhat easy time on a couple of occasions last year and a handicap mark of 105 will surely only go one way.

Tominator (Jonjo O'Neil) A revelation on the flat now with a master trainer and Mr McCoy on his back. This five year old grey seems to have been on the scene forever, stays forever and I will be surprised if this horse is not a winner at the Festival.

Hisaabaat (Dermot Weld) I still think this horse should have won the Triumph hurdle last year and will be even better this year, a recent pipe opener over ten furlongs on the flat at the Curragh leads me to think that the master trainer will be hitting the ground running with this horse early on in the season.

[JohnC]

Fine evening of footy ...but a few more ponder. A bit obvious imo.

Nic Doggett selects one jumps horse to follow from each of the top five British stables (based on last season's results)

1 / 5

Hold On Julio: Possible Gold Cup contender?

Sanctuaire - Paul Nicholls

Although more high-profile than some in this list, Paul Nicholls' talented six-year-old looks a horse who can go right to the very top this season.

Having become disappointing over hurdles, a switch to chasing really paid dividends in the new year, resulting in three bloodless victories. One might argue that he didn't beat much in the first two races, but by slamming Somersby in the Celebration Chase, he stamped himself as a very exciting prospect.

Expect him to head to the Tingle Creek and then the Champion Chase, and whilst horses such as Sizing Europe, Finian's Rainbow and Sprinter Sacre are very tough opponents, there is reason to believe that his liking for the Sandown fences could swing the race in his favour come Christmas time.

And let's not forget that Nicholls has won 7 of the last 10 renewals; Sanctuaire looks his outstanding candidate this season.

Captain Conan - Nicky Henderson

It was a surprise for many, including his trainer Nicky Henderson, when this French recruit was successful on his UK debut at Sandown. He wasn't able to add to that narrow defeat of Colour Squadron, however he wasn't disgraced in three subsequent runs on ground quicker than ideal.

After that rushed novice hurdling campaign, he'll definitely go chasing this year and he has the scope to make a real impact when the ground is testing, especially when stepped up in trip.

Obviously the big spring festivals are often run on quicker ground, but if the going is suitable then races such as the Jewson Novices' Chase/RSA Chase at Cheltenham and the Champion Novice Chase at Punchestown look suitable long-term targets.

Super Duty - Donald McCain

Despite a crashing (and worrying) fall at Ayr in January, the son of Shantou bounced back by beating Keys at Ascot and then chasing home Simonsig at the Aintree Festival. Although no match for the winner, he would have gone closer had he not made a mistake late on and he has an exciting season over fences ahead.

He was beaten by a good Robert Bewley horse on his reappearance at Carlisle but that was over two miles and his future certainly lies over 2m4f and further (he comes from a staying family), and he has the scope to really do some damage in the early part of this season.

However he proved last year that he's more than capable of holding his own at the bigger meetings and McCain's charge may well head to Bangor next before being aimed at more illustrious races, perhaps something like the Feltham Novices' Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

It's A Gimme - Jonjo O'Neill

His novice form last season wasn't amazing by anyone's standards, indeed jockey Tony McCoy was disappointed after his Southwell win in February, and he signed off last season with a costly defeat at Aintree albeit against more experience rivals.

However he ran the progressive Raya Star very close on his reappearance at Ascot on Saturday and, despite a rise to a rating of 140, he looks on a fair mark and that lofty perch should ensure he gets into the bigger and more valuable two mile handicaps this season.

Big fields and a strong pace will suit as he doesn't do much in-front, but he looks a potential successor to his more illustrious handicapping stablemate Get Me Out Of Here.

Hold On Julio - Alan King

King's nine-year-old attracted plenty of column inches last season and looks set to do so once again following a promising reappearance at Cheltenham. His jumping was scratchy but he still ran on well up the hill, suggesting that he would have won had his fencing been more accurate.

The former hunter-chaser only disappointed once last season, at the Cheltenham Festival, but his preparation hadn't been smooth and his excellent return, where King would have left something to work on, shows that he's back in good health.

He has an entry in the Hennessy, and is now rated 148, and although it may be slightly pie in the sky, there's no real reason why he can't continue his improvement, and make the step up to the top level.

King hasn't had a Gold Cup contender in recent years, but if this son of Blueprint continues his upward curve, then he could feasibly mirror last-season's victor Synchronised at Cheltenham in March.