Flat Racing Notebook Horses

[Yeehaa]

Donn McClean

Laffan

All the focus after the three-year-old seven-furlong Investec Management Handicap at Epsom on Friday was on the beaten horses, and there were traffic problems in behind, but no severe ones, and the winner Laffan is straight-forward, has won four of his last five, and remains on a steep upward curve.

Laffan was clear of the traffic problems out in front, but he had the pace to get and hold his early lead from stall nine, despite two or three of those drawn inside him wanting to be prominent too. Richard Hughes was keen to have Crown Dependency in a prominent position from stall one, but Laffan was able to move on and secure a clear lead after a couple of furlongs. He went pretty hard out in front (Crown Dependency weakened to finish 11th of the 12), he travelled better than anything to the three-furlong pole, and at no stage did you really think that he was going to be caught. He was going away again at the line, for all that Prince Alzain was finishing well out wide.

Kevin Ryan’s horse remains highly progressive. He was defying a 10lb hike here for an impressive win at Doncaster (and his rider had lost her claim in the interim, so the horse was effectively 13lb higher here). The handicapper has given him a further 5lb for this, but that is not severe, he won this authoritatively in the end, and there could still be more to come from him off his new mark of 90. He seems to really enjoy jumping and running, leading, and this seven-furlong trip is ideal for him in that context. Kevin Ryan has his string in good form at present, and the Dark Angel gelding could very well be up to winning another competitive handicap at least while in this sort of form.

1st June 2012

[Forced Kin]

no risk at all

One of Mordins overturned and one from Donn

You avert your gaze for a second and No Risk At All goes and wins La Coupe at Longchamp.

He and the odds-on favourite Meandre challenged the front-running Poet around the two-furlong pole, but when Ioritz Mendizabal gave the son of My Risk a squeeze, he picked up impressively, passed Maxime Guyon and Meandre long before they had reached the furlong pole, and went clear to record a fairly facile victory.

Perhaps the ground was softer than ideal for Meandre, and perhaps the 10-furlong trip was shorter than ideal, but it was difficult not to be impressed with No Risk At All’s performance. On his previous run, Jean-Paul Gallorini’s horse had suggested that there might be a performance like this in him when he finished fourth behind Golden Lilac, Cirrus Des Aigles and Planteur in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan. That is fine form just as it stands, but No Risk At All’s performance was even better than it looked on paper.

Held up in behind off a ridiculously sedate pace that day, he impressed with the manner in which he was able to make ground on the far side into a quickening pace at Group 1 level before he ran out of racing room and had to coast home. He gave the impression that he had plenty more left to give, that he would have finished even closer to those top class performers had he not run out of racing room, and that a faster pace and/or a step up in trip would be in his favour. He got both at Longchamp yesterday, as was always likely with confirmed front-runner Poet in the line-up.

Gallorini is now talking about the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and that is interesting. Going from your maiden Group 3 win to the Arc de Triomphe is a massive step but, although No Risk At All is five years old, he is a lightly raced five-year-old. He was shaping like a high-class three-year-old in 2010 before injury intervened, and he has plenty of scope for progression now. Also, Cirrus Des Aigles won La Coupe (we’ll stick with just La Coupe) last year, and he hasn’t fared too badly since.

No Risk At All is still well under the radar, as evidenced by the fact that, of the major betting firms, only William Hill think enough of his chance in the Arc to even put a price against his name. Mind you, there may be at least another pay-day in him between now and then. He may continue as an under-rated individual.

[Yeehaa]

Tom Dascombe Stable tour

THE KNOWLEDGE
BLUE JACKATR has now dropped to a very winnable rating.
ANACONDAATR has been saved for the Britannia Handicap off an unexposed mark.
GAUL WOODATR is ready to run and has improvement on good ground or all weather.
BACK IN THE FRAMEATR is being saved for nurseries off a winnable rating.
PREMIER STEPSATR has now got important track experience before the Albany at Ascot.
UPWARD SPIRALATR is considered potentially the best juvenile filly the trainer has handled

[mayo]

DonnYou can’t win anything with juveniles, I’m sure Alan Hansen would have said if racing had been his sport of choice. Except, of course, the juvenile races, he would have added. And maybe the Nunthorpe.

I find juveniles fascinating – they are the Classic winners of tomoryear after all – but I find juvenile races in general difficult as a betting medium. The youngsters usually haven’t run often enough to allow you build up a book of evidence in their favour or against them. A sample size of one run on fast ground or over six furlongs or on an undulating track probably isn’t a sample size of significance.

That said, there were several juveniles who emerged as interesting from last week’s July meeting at Newmarket. Here are notes on six (and no, you didn’t have to have a one-word name in order to get onto the list):

Birdman
Travelled well in rear in the Superlative Stakes, had to make his ground in the middle of the track, away from where the race developed on the far side, yet he just failed to catch Coventry Stakes runner-up Olympic Glory. He probably would have got up in another two strides. This was just his fourth run, he had won his previous two, and he can continue to progress. He is by Danehill Dancer, this soft ground was no hindrance to him, but he did win his maiden on good to firm, so he should be fine back on a better surface.

Lewisham
Looked out of his depth in the July Stakes, but he was hampered by Gale Force Ten against the stands rail when he was delivering his run, but for which he might well have even won. He did make his ground on the near rail, on probably the fastest part of the track, admittedly, so he might have been a little flattered by the bare performance, but it was still a fine run. This was just his third run, he should progress again, and he seemed to appreciate this easy ground.

Sendmylovetorose
The consensus was that runner-up Maureen was unlucky, but the Hannon filly travelled against the near rail the whole way and may have been flattered by finishing so fast. By contrast, Sendmylovetorose was out in the middle of the track, on ground that was probably slower, and she hung to her left, even further away from the stands rail, yet she picked up impressively and went and won her race nicely. It is probable that the best horse in the race won it, but that may not be the general conclusion.

Ghurair
Nice performance on his debut, he quickened well and just started to look about him once he hit the front. Even so, he beat a nice field with plenty in hand. This is often a good race, the last five renewals won by Rio De La Plata, Soul City, Elusive Pimpernel, Native Khan and Rougemont respectively.

Improvisation
The second Godolphin string, he ran a cracker on his racecourse debut to finish second to the smart-looking Ghurair, and he could have gone even closer had he not moved off the stands rail and allowed the winner up before chasing after him. This is often a good race, and Improvisation may be under-rated, with all the post-race attention focused on the winner.

Certify
Another Godolphin representative, the Elusive Quality filly picked up nicely to come from a fairly unpromising position, making her ground in the centre of the track, to win Thursday’s fillies’ maiden impressively. In so doing, she beat her better-fancied fellow Godolphin representative Shuruq into third place, and she clocked a time that was marginally faster than the time that Alhebayeb clocked in winning the Group 2 July Stakes over the same course and distance earlier in the day. It was a really impressive performance from a racecourse debutante.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Donn


George Vancouver

George Vancouver could well be the horse to take out of the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville on Sunday. He was always going as fast as he wanted to, but he did pick up nicely through the closing stages to finish second, just three parts of a lengths behind the winner Reckless Abandon, a dual Group 2 winner already who had the run of the race from the front and flush against the near rail.

George Vancouver closed really well through the final furlong from an unpromising position four horses back on the rail. He wasn’t on the near rail initially and had to come off it again to make ground, so all in all, this was a really likeable run.

This was the Henrythenavigator colt’s fourth run, he had only a maiden win from three starts before this to his name, but his two losses were on really soft ground and that just may not have suited him at all. He was well backed on both of those runs, as he was again when he was impressive in winning his maiden on Polytrack at Dundalk last month, and he looked much more at home here on his first run on decent turf.

Neither of the Aidan O’Brien horses appeared to be particularly well-fancied here, Joseph did not travel to France to rider either George Vancouver or Parliament Square, and a run as good as this from the runner-up may not have been a entirely expected.

George Vancouver is bred to improve for stepping up from this six-furlong trip, his dam won a Grade 1 race in America over a mile and a quarter, and he shaped here as if he would be better over a longer trip. He could be aimed at some of the big end-of-season two-year-old races now, and it would be no surprise to see him run really well in the National Stakes or even the Beresford or the Dewhurst.

19th August 2012


Ultrasonic

Sir Michael Stoute looks to have found the key to Ultrasonic with the application of a hood, and his filly ran another good race in the headgear when stepped up to listed class again for the Flying Fillies’ Stakes at Pontefract on Sunday.

The Mizzen Mast filly had been impressive in winning on her previous run at Newmarket in her first-time hood, settling well, and she was at least a little unfortunate here. She may not have beaten Mince however the race had panned out, Mince having returned to her own rich vein of form of late, but it is unlikely that she is a two-length worse filly than Mince. Ultrasonic raced out the back in a race in which it was a benefit to race handily – the other three fillies who filled the first four places were first, second and third turning for home. On top of that, Ultrasonic was checked a little around the home turn, and she had to be pulled to the outside to challenge, by which time Mince was away, but she finished best of all.

She is quirky, she probably has to be settled out the back and as such she will always be a hostage to pace, but she finished well here, she showed a nice attitude having met some interference, and she continues to improve, now that she has learned to settle. She would have been seen in better light off a stronger pace, and Pontefract wouldn’t be her ideal track either, it is likely that she is better on a straight track as a hold-up horse. She is bred to get further than six furlongs, being a half-sister to Arch Fire who won his maiden over a mile and a quarter and who was placed over a mile and a half for Sir Michael Stoute last year, and she may well improve for stepping up to seven furlongs or a mile now that she has started to relax better with the application of the hood.

This was only her seventh run, she should continue to improve with racing, and it may also have been that the quick ground (and the ground really was quick with several races on the card, including this one, being run in a faster time than standard) wasn’t totally in her favour either. It was soft ground for her win on her previous run and also when she ran a good race behind Nunthorpe-aspirant Pearl Secret in the Scurry Stakes at Sandown earlier in the season, when she raced off the far rail, and it may be that she prefers some ease in the ground. She will be of interest, though, wherever she goes next.

19th August 2012

Snow Fairy

Snow Fairy put up a hugely noteworthy performance in winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet on her seasonal debut at Deauville on Sunday. She beat some of the best fillies in Europe, and considering that she is rarely at her best on her seasonal debut, this really bodes well for the rest of her campaign. This was by far the highest Racing Post Rating she has recorded on her first run of the season.

She had to be really brave and dig in to get the better of Izzi Top, who has improved considerably this year at four, and the presence of Group 1 fillies in third, fourth, fifth and sixth makes this one of the strongest middle distance fillies’ race for some time. She was in danger of being held in as Izzi Top began her challenge at the top of the home straight on her outside and drifted in to her right, but a feature of Snow Fairy’s greatest performances, particularly her three wins in Japan and Hong Kong, has been her surge of power late on, and that was in evidence once again, she simply had too much for her top-class rivals inside the final furlong.

Ed Dunlop’s filly has improved considerably from her first to her second run in each of her three previous seasons to race, and the fact that there should still be more to come from her is exciting. She has five lengths to find with Danedream if she takes her chance in the Arc again, but she won’t have to concede the 8lb weight-for-age allowance this year, and, in a race in which the draw plays a big part, you have to hope that she will not be drawn as poorly in relation to the German filly this year (last year she came from stall 11, Danedream from stall 2) if she does take her chance in the Arc. On this evidence she could be even better this year than she was last year anyway, and quotes of as big as 20/1 look big for the Paris feature.

19th August 2012

[Sprinter]

Great call from donn on snow fairy
Scrapper Smith is worth noting now after two good but unlucky, runs, the latest of which came in the listed one-mile-five-furlong handicap at Chester on Saturday.

He did benefit from being held up off a strong pace, and he hardly left the inside rail throughout, but the first and second also raced in the rear division for much of the race, and Scrapper Smith was checked in his run twice, the second, and worse instance, coming at a crucial time as they turned into the home straight when the first two had already gone for home. Also, the evidence on the day suggested that the inside rail was probably the slowest part of the track in the home straight, and that’s where Scrapper Smith made his ground late on, finishing really strongly to get to within a length of the winner Tominator at the line, having made up several lengths through the final furlong.

While the times indicated that the ground was probably a little easier than the official description of good, Alistair Whillans’s gelding is better on soft ground, so it was a fine effort to get so close on ground that was not quite ideal, having not had a clear passage. On top of all that, he was racing from 2lb out of the handicap. This was a career-best for Scrapper Smith on Racing Post Ratings, building on his previous run, which was also a career-best, when he just failed to peg back Edmaaj in the Lanark Silver Bell at Hamilton. He is in excellent heart at present.

He hit from this time last year, as he did in 2010, and he is a horse to watch for the autumn now, given his penchant for easy ground.

1st September 2012

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

More Donn


F

ive juvenile winners of note over the weekend:

1. Certify – Fillies’ Mile
Certify was impressive in winning the Fillies’ Mile, but she probably didn’t have that much to beat, after Winsili’s had been withdrawn, if you make the assumption – which you can legitimately make – that Ollie Olga didn’t run her race. She raced on what was probably the fastest part of the track, and the time was not good, it was around two seconds slower than the two other races run over a mile on the day, and it was only marginally quicker, comparatively, than the time that fellow juvenile Seek Again clocked in winning the seven-furlong maiden later in the day on his racecourse debut.

While she hardly enhanced her reputation one iota, however, Certify certainly didn’t tarnish it. The Godolphin filly remains a high-class juvenile, she is now unbeaten in four runs, a maiden, a Group 3, a Group 2 and now a Group 1. However, the paddock-watchers suggested that she just may not have the scope to improve significantly through the winter, and 8/1 about her for next year’s 1000 Guineas looks short.

2. Steeler – Royal Lodge Stakes
The defection of Afonso De Sousa from the Royal Lodge robbed the race of some of its interest, but it was still a strong contest run at a good pace, and Steeler emerged as unquestionably the best horse in the race on the day.

There was a lot to like about the manner in which the son of Raven’s Pass went about his business. Always in the front rank, Kieren Fallon had to niggle him along from the three-furlong marker, but that is Fallon’s way, and Steeler responded willingly. The further they went, the stronger he got, and he left the impression that he had a fair bit more in hand of Artigiano than the one-length winning margin, with the front pair clear.

This performance was much more that of a Derby prospect than that of a Guineas prospect. Trainer Mark Johnston did make the point that he thought Mister Baileys was a Derby horse in 1994 before he won the Guineas and then didn’t stay in the Derby, but there is plenty of stamina in Steeler’s pedigree, and he shapes much more like a galloper than a speedster. He may race in Godolphin colours next year, he may spend the winter in Dubai, but he will remain with Johnston until the Racing Post Trophy at least, and that race is surely his automatic target now.

3. Rosdhu Queen – Cheveley Park Stakes
Rosdhu Queen made all to win the Cheveley Park. Strange for a filly who was thought of as a pure speedball, and about whom there were stamina doubts before she stepped up to six furlongs for the first time and won the Lowther Stakes, she saw this six furlongs out really well, going on strongly up the hill out of the Dip to win nicely from a decent sort in Winning Express.

The William Haggas-trained filly is out of a mare who won over a mile, which suggests that the Guineas may be within range next year, but all her siblings to date are sprinters, and she is by speed influence Invincible Spirit. It wouldn’t be surprising if Haggas started off next year by training her for the Guineas, but it may be that sprinting will be her thing.

4. Viztoria – Blenheim Stakes
Viztoria blew the Blenheim Stakes apart at The Curragh on Sunday. She took it up at the two-furlong pole and simply careered away under barely a hands-and-heels ride from Johnny Murtagh. She wasn’t at all flattered by the seven-and-a-half-length winning margin, and the winning time was really impressive, the fastest comparative time of the day and over a half a second faster than the time that Bubbly Bellini clocked in winning the competitive all-aged handicap run over the same course and distance a half an hour later.

This was just Viztoria’s second ever race – her first for Eddie Lynam – and she has won both by seven and a half lengths. Her pedigree suggests that she should improve for stepping up in trip and, if she can handle good ground as well as she handles this heavy ground (her previous win was also on heavy ground), she could be high class indeed. Quotes of 16/1 about her for next year’s 1000 Guineas are not completely outlandish.

5. Battle Of Marengo – Beresford Stakes
In contrast to Viztoria, Sunday’s heavy ground was a bit of an unknown for Battle Of Marengo in the Beresford Stakes, and he won despite not really handling it, according to rider Joseph O’Brien. Joseph had to get after the son of Galileo a little at the top of the home straight but, once he passed long-time leader Orgilgo Bay, he galloped on strongly all the way to the line to win impressively.

The evidence that we have suggests that Battle Of Marengo could make up into a very high-class performer. He is immaculately-bred, by Galileo out of Anna Karenina, who won a listed race over almost 10 furlongs for David Wachman and whose first foal, Precious Stone, also by Galileo, won her maiden at Dundalk last Thursday, and should go on from that now that she has been dropped back down to a mile.

The listed race that Battle Of Marengo won at Leopardstown three weeks ago looks even better now than it did then, since the runner-up, Trading Leather, ran out an impressive winner of a good maiden at Gowran Park last week. As well as that, Aidan O’Brien tends to run some of his better potential middle-distance juveniles in the Beresford. The trainer has won the race 12 times now, with horses like Septimus, Eagle Mountain and, of course, St Nicholas Abbey. It looks like Battle Of Marengo will now go down the same route that that triumvirate took and run in the Racing Post Trophy next, and it makes sense that he is high in the betting for next year’s Derb