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Thought it was going to be a nothing day but the early money proved correct.
Elnadim star drifted out and won at 9/2
Summer name drifted to 20/1 and ran a cracker to finish 3rd. Just Ginger nut letting us down for a return.
Sentimental Gent in the opener at Southwell tomorrow has seen early money, 3/1 into 2/1, trained by Kevin Ryan so with any luck it will drift tomorrow afternoon like the Ryan horse that won for us today.
Are there any specific bookies that cut prices that you take particular note of?
365 tend to be the first to price everything up, sometime they get them wrong though, which is why you get something going from 33's into 12's in one move sometimes. I try a few later to see if a move appears genuine, and staged, that seems important. Still trying to sort the wheat from the chaff though, some races will have 2 or 3 movers, they can't all be right, I have now started to filter via connections to narrow them down, little point in putting 10 or more up.
It looks like the Ryan outfit don't know what they have, the one for money ran a very mediocre race to finish out of the money, then, 20 mins later they put one out at Windsor that comfortably beats a 2/5 hotpot, and they didn't appear to know, judging by the market.
Bossipops did nothing, I haven't seen the race but was unplaced, oh well, there's always tomorrow.
One interesting early mover tomorrow in the 5.50 at Yarmouth, Slow to hand, has halved from opening to 4/1.
Prob worth looking at this Willie Jarvis/ Jamie Spencer
365 tend to be the first to price everything up, sometime they get them wrong though, which is why you get something going from 33's into 12's in one move sometimes. I try a few later to see if a move appears genuine, and staged, that seems important. Still trying to sort the wheat from the chaff though, some races will have 2 or 3 movers, they can't all be right, I have now started to filter via connections to narrow them down, little point in putting 10 or more up.
Yeah I suppose you need to record them but not follow some until you see a pattern.
I wonder if time of year affects some?
I assume type of race must have an impact too.
As a general rule I avoid any race where any horse is unraced but that'd probably be quite a strong way to gauge a horse in this instance?
Yeah I suppose you need to record them but not follow some until you see a pattern.
I wonder if time of year affects some?
I assume type of race must have an impact too.
As a general rule I avoid any race where any horse is unraced but that'd probably be quite a strong way to gauge a horse in this instance?
Outside of connections the market is the only way we can guage first timers really, a flood of money can speak volumes. I think that may be why we have some moving early evening and then will drift the following day, the punters weighing in the day of the race will follow the form, or those marked up at the top of the market, leaving the ones backed the previous evening looking unsupported, in my view this is where the opportunity to gain an edge comes into play, get us a bit of value.
I'm sure the time of year comes into this as well, as you say, I know for several years I've looked for early money on horses from the Stack yard, but it's only recently that I've had the idea to look the previous evening, that's quite an interesting angle.
Poor show today guys, and nothing really jumping out tomorrow, will keep an eye on it but with a few decent prizes around the movers are the major stables in the main
Not a mover more of an observation regarding a race tomorrow. SDS goes to Ascot for, effectively, 1 ride, he has what looks like a no hoper later on the card, but in the 3.10 he rides Desert Skyline. I can't find any rides at later meetings, but with so much racing tomorrow I'm wondering if the hint should be taken. His stated aim is to ride as many winners as possible to retain his title, and This just seems strange. Last weekend he gave up what turned out to be a winning ride in Hong Kong for a 1.3 million HK dollar race to chase winners at home, maybe I'm reading too much into it but I'd be interested to hear what others think.
I enjoy looking for these types of things MrM, I find it very intriguing so I think it's a good observation and worth keeping an eye on.
Likewise i have another i will keep an eye on tomorrow - I spotted a late ew double today which i got on - 17:15 Yarmouth Choral Music (won) and 17:25 Brighton Ashazuri (came second) - both Jonathan Portman trained. Tomorrow i can see he has 16:55 Ascot Balmoral Castle and 17:35 Brighton Groundnut and having had a look at the owners then may be worth noting - but what do i know!
I'll watch those Gamm, not a stable I've ever followed, Simon Crisford has Shrewd Approach in that Brighton race and that was one of the movers from bigger stables I alluded to last night, just fyi.
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