Punchestown 2016 Thread

[Guest]

Nothing here ?

Gold Cup looks like it could be a cracker. Plenty of future Cheltenham clues elsewhere but I find it hard to enjoy it much in its own right. Not a great punting meeting for me either.

General strategy this year will be to favour Elliott over Mullins. Also look out for anything Colm Murphy runs.

[Old Vic]

I am a bit under the cosh at work MG but will try and update the stats etc Sunday or early next week.

It was an absolute Mullins gravy train their last year and I think he will still have plenty of winners.

[Istabraq]

He'll definitely have winners but the likes of VVM, Un de Sceax and co won't be going there and I think they would have been booked in for appearances before the whole trainers championship battle became a priority.
I'm with MG looking for value elsewhere...

[Yeehaa]

What had willie last year ? 17 or something ridiculous ?

[Old Vic]

If you think Willie Mullins dominates the Cheltenham Festival, wait until you see Punchestown. Since 2008 - the first in his current run of successive trainer titles - he has had an amazing 88 winners here with the next best Jessica Harrington with 17 wins.

Punters who have backed his odds-on shots have done well; in the same period they've hit 22 wins from 32 bets for small level-stakes profit of 1.49 points.

part of a larger Tony Keenan article https://betting.betfair.com/horse-ra...40416-293.html

[Montelado]

Punchestown usually a disaster for me on the betting front so will try Zabana & Automated in a double

[mayo]

Don't Touch It @ 25/1
Macnicholson @ 22/1
Baily Green @ 100/1
Sub Lieutenant @ 25/1
Yankee, 11 bets * £1.00 EW

£1.7m

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

good preview on rte

Herald Champion Novice Hurdle, 4.20pm

The first Grade 1 of the Punchestown Festival is run over two miles and Yorkhill, having shown a sparkling turn of foot to settle the Neptune in a matter of strides at Cheltenham, before pulling extremely hard yet still winning at Aintree last time, will surely appreciate the drop in trip.

He has won all four of his hurdle starts, having been two from two in bumpers last season, and he looks a potential superstar.

He clearly doesn’t do a tap in front, and has had much more in hand than the bare margin in his last three starts, yet that bare form would be more than good enough to win this. It might not be for everyone, but I’d be very surprised if Yorkhill is beaten and he looks more like a 1/4 shot to me than the current 4/7 available with Boylesports.

Killashee Handicap Hurdle, 4.55pm

This race is run over two miles and the unexposed Copy That currently heads the market. He is likely still well handicapped off a mark of 127, but it was stamina that won him the race last time at Leopardstown when he looked in trouble three out, before staying on strongly to win going away.

He might prove best at further than two miles, and with the ground likely to be much faster here, he looks too short at just 6/1.

Automated was formerly useful on the flat, and he has showed progressive form over hurdles since joining the Gordon Elliot yard, last time only finding a peak form Ivan Grozny too good at Aintree.

He travelled really well through the race that day, and while he couldn’t go with the winner, he beat the rest easily, and looks well handicapped off the same mark here, with scope to do better still.

Ordinary World is another who interests me here. He’s still lightly raced after just six hurdles starts, and was in the process of running a good race in a decent handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last time, upsides Modem, who went on to be third, when he fell shortly after the last.

Ordinary World is less exposed than Modem, and had to make good ground in the hottest part of that Fairyhouse contest to get into contention, so it’s very surprising he’s over double that horse's price on Tuesday when Ordinary World is actually three pound better off.

I think Automated is the most likely winner of this, and is worth an each way bet at the current 8/1, while Ordinary World looks a really good each way bet at 25/1. That price with Boylesports really does look much too big.

Boylesports Champion Chase, 5.30pm
The Boylesports Champion Chase is the big race on Day One of the Punchestown Festival, and it sees Vautour drop back to around two miles for the first time since St Stephens Day back in 2014. He was a beaten favourite than day, but it was a terrible mistake after halfway that cost him, rather than the trip.

While Vautour is a superb jumper on the whole, it was jumping that let him down last time too, getting in too close to a fence at Aintree, and paying the penalty. He seemed fine afterwards, indeed the horse jumped the rest of the fences loose, so it didn’t seem to bother him much.

At his best he’s much better than any of these, coming second in the King George despite looking to find the trip too far, before an easy win in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. It’s likely that two and a half miles is his optimum trip, but I’d expect him to be at least as good over two miles, as three, and that should be more than good enough to win this.

Simonsig looked a potential star in his novice chase season back in 2013, but he has only had one run since winning that years Arkle, and that was a defeat over hurdles at Newbury back in November.

He travelled with his old enthusiasm that day, but his finishing effort was weak, and it’s a huge ask for his trainer to have him back anywhere near his best for this.

God’s Own won the race Vautour fell in at Aintree, but he was five lengths behind Special Tiara in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, and with that one being kept for this, I would expect him to confirm that Cheltenham form, and be the one to chase Vautour home.

It’s hard to find a bet in the win market, but if Special Tiara was around 7/4 without Vautour he would be worth a small bet.

Goffs Land Rover Bumper, 6.05pm
The Goffs Land Rover Bumper is worth plenty of money to the winner, and is a very interesting race for the future, but the field is full of unraced, or very lightly raced horses, and I can’t find any betting angle in it.

Growise Champion Novice Chase, 6.40pm
The Growise Champion Novice Chase is run over three miles and one furlong, with Outlander heading the market as I write this. I thought he ran a bit flat at Fairyhouse last time though, and while that came just ten days after his fall at Cheltenham, I don’t think the faster ground is in his favour tomorrow either.

Henryville had some very good hurdles form, the best of it probably at close fourth in the Pertemps at Cheltenham in 2015 off a mark of 152. That was over three miles, and in winning two of his three chase runs so far, he already looks at least as good a chaser, and that’s despite the fact that he has been running at trips short of his best.

He won with plenty in hand at Exeter last time, the step up in trip looks sure to suit, and he is also a fresh horse having not run at Cheltenham or Aintree.

Zabana was supposed to run at Cheltenham, indeed I fancied him to go close, but in a farcical start, he was left standing as the other runners made their way to the first fence.

He had disappointed on his previous start, but his decent hurdles form, as well as the impression he made on his chasing debut suggests he could go close in a race like this.

Noble Endeavor was ridden to get the trip in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and was staying on when he fell two out. His overall form is solid, but while he could easily place, he would need to improve to win this, and is more exposed than a few others.

Rule The World is a very strange runner in a novice chase having won the Aintree Grand National last time out.

That form would give him every chance, but it was a big step up for him, and you’d have to assume the marathon trip and soft ground were the main reasons for that, and he will find conditions very different here.

Southfield Royale would need to show a good bit of improvement to get involved, and at the bigger prices one that is of interest is Ballychorus.

She has just two wins in small fields, plus two falls and an unseat from five chase starts so far, which doesn’t sound overly inspiring, but she looked set to win both times when she fell at the last, and she only made a slight mistake last time, and it was more jockey, rather than horse error, that meant they parted company. Based on what she looked set to achieve at Leopardstown in the Paddy Power, she would have a good chance here with her mare’sallowance.

I think Outlander is a bad favourite, indeed I’d have both Henryville and Zabana as more likely winners, and it is Henryville at 9/2 that looks the best bet to me. His form is not far off what will be required here, and he has loads of scope to improve over this trip. I can’t resist recommending a small bet on Ballychorus at 20/1 as well though, as with a clear round she really doesn’t have much to find.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Two bets for me today:

Rich Coast (33/1) and Art of Payroll (14/1). Both each way in the 4:55.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Not sure where this idea comes from that Vatour's optimum trip is two and half miles, he was a brilliant winner of the Supreme then given a programme to avoid UDS, no other reason, how stupid does that look now, the title would have belonged to Mullins had Vatour won the Champion chase, and I'll be amazed if anything in this race gets him off the bridle

[loveracing]

I just got back and managed to have a quick look. A tough day and only going to have one bet on Modem 14/1 in the 4.55.

[loveracing]

Just added Southfield Royale 7/1 in the 6.40.

[mayo]

Don't Touch It @ 25/1
Macnicholson @ 22/1
Baily Green @ 100/1
Sub Lieutenant @ 25/1
Yankee, 11 bets * £1.00 EW



£1.7m

25% there

[MrMcGoldrick]

25% there

3 would give you a nice pick up at the prices, looks like you're looking in the right price brackets, good luck
Not having a bet myself, just hoping to watch Vautour destroy the opposition

[MrMcGoldrick]

3 would give you a nice pick up at the prices, looks like you're looking in the right price brackets, good luck
Not having a bet myself, just hoping to watch Vautour destroy the opposition

Not sure if Ruby was looking after the horse or himself there, needs to have more use made of him over 2 miles, still think the QM could be the race next year, just be some bigger prices around between now and then.