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2.00 Ayr – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3)
Our action on Saturday gets underway with this Group 3 for fillies over the straight six furlongs up at Ayr.
Clive Cox’s Priceless is likely to be popular in the market having run out a ready winner on her racecourse debut at Haydock at the beginning of the month. A 70,000 guineas purchase as a yearling, she travelled smoothly throughout in the hands of Adam Kirby and having hit the front inside the final furlong, she stretched clear to win by seven lengths at the line. In truth the form doesn’t look up to much but she was well on top at the line and I don’t think you can hold that against her. She clearly has plenty of ability but she will face several rivals here with a bit more experience here and we should learn more about her. She obviously deserves plenty of respect given the way that she won on debut but I wouldn’t be keen on taking a short price about her and think there are better options in the race.
Richard Hannon’s Whatdoiwantthatfor has had plenty of racing but won a Listed race at Newbury in August and despite already being beaten twice at this level, she should be respected. She ran into a smart performer in the shape of La Rioja at Salisbury last time and I don’t think it is unfair to say that there isn’t anything of that quality in this field. She has plenty of experience and on official ratings, she is the one to beat.
However, David Barron’s LADY CLAIR brings Lowther form to the table having finished fourth in the York contest last time and could be the each-way bet in the race. She improved for the step up to six furlongs and had only Besharah, Lumiere and Easton Angel ahead of her at the line. She was ridden patiently that day before staying on in the closing stages and I think she will be ridden with more confidence here. She has improved with each of her three starts to date and looks to have the right sort of profile to win this race. She is available at around the 7/1 mark and in a wide open event, I think she has strong each-way claims.
Advice
LADY CLAIR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill)
2.05 Newmarket – Federation Of Bloodstock Agents “Ebf Stallions” Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
It is not often that I include maidens in my previews given the number of unknown factors involved in such a race but John Gosden introduces a nice filly by the name of EYESHINE. She is a daughter of the Oaks winner Casual Look and cost a whopping 1.45 million dollars when she went through the ring as a yearling. The yard are reported to think quite a bit of her and considering that this maiden has been won by the likes of Midday, Taghrooda and Lady Of Dubai in recent years, it often turns out to be a strong race. She could be an Oaks filly for next year all being well and it will be interesting to see how she gets on. The Gosden yard tend to be fairly straight for their debuts and I think she can run a big race.
The main danger is likely to be Haggle who finished third behind Ballydoyle and Nemoralia in a maiden at the July meeting. She stayed on well that day over seven furlongs so the extra furlong should help. The yard’s runners tend to come on for a run and having missed a similar engagement a couple of weeks ago on account of the ground, she has been set this assignment. She should be more popular in the market than she was on debut and looks the one we have to beat.
Advice
EYESHINE – 1pt win
2.15 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Once again we are likely to have soft ground for the Mill Reef and as we saw last year with Toocoolforschool, whether these two-year-olds handle it can have a big effect on the outcome.
The current favourite at the time of writing is Richard Fahey’s Ribchester who despite still being a maiden has already achieved a good level of form in two starts. He was beaten by a member of the William Haggas who had the benefit of experience at Doncaster on debut before chasing home Ajaya in the Gimcrack last time. It took a while for the penny to drop that day but he was motoring inside the final furlong and although he never looked like catching the winner, he is clearly smart. He has subsequently been bought by Godolphin and should be thereabouts but I would not be too keen about taking 13/8.
Instead I think the one to be with is RAUCOUS who finished behind Richard Fahey’s colt in the Gimcrack but crucially is proven on the ground having won on soft ground at Newmarket in July. Despite having had three runs, he was still very green at York and should be able to step forward from that effort. William Haggas has a pretty smart bunch of juveniles this season so should have a good idea of how good this lad is. In truth I don’t think there is much between the two colts I have mentioned but at the prices and with the latter already proven on the ground, he gets the nod.
I should also briefly mention Bryan Smart’s King Robert who won on very soft ground at Carlisle and has since followed up at Chester. I would be surprised if he were good enough to win but he will handle the conditions and could run better than his price suggests.
Advice
RAUCOUS – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Coral, BetVictor)
2.35 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap)
The Silver Cup looks an interesting puzzle to solve as cases can easily be made for just over half of the field but I have managed to narrow the shortlist down to a more manageable four.
Towards the head of the weights, David O’Meara’s Eccleston looks to be of plenty of interest having run well when drawn on the wrong side in the Great St Wilfrid before winning at Thirsk next time. The form has worked out well with the runner-up Another Wise Kid also running well in the Portland at Doncaster last weekend. He gets a 5lb penalty for that latest win and missed the cut for the Gold Cup by just a couple of pounds. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to him here as historically those drawn on either rail tend to be favoured, although last year the stands side group looked to have a major advantage. He is drawn in the middle in 13 so Danny Tudhope will have the option of going either way but I think there are better fancies in the race.
Richard Fahey has won this race twice in the last decade and saddles three runners in this year’s field but his best chance must be with George Bowen who landed a big prize when winning a the Curragh last weekend. From a poor draw, Jamie Spencer gave him an inspired ride to get him over onto the stands rail and he ran on well at the line to win by one and three-quarter lengths. That followed a win at Newmarket in August and he arrives here in search of the hat-trick and is difficult to dismiss.
However, I like the chances of Chris Wall’s JOHARA who having been off the track for more than a year ran well to finish fourth behind Eccleston at Thirsk last time. The filly was held up and didn’t get an entirely clear passage so her effort needs marking up. She finished only one and three-quarter lengths behind the winner that day and with a slight pull in the weights and normal improvement after such a long lay-off she should be able to run well. She is drawn on the stands side rail in 25 which was the place to be last year and with the Wall team continuing to fire in the winners, she gets the nod at around the 8/1 mark.
At a bigger price, I think Kevin Ryan’s Teruntum Star could run well if he is none the worse for his run at Newmarket in August. Prior to that he had won well at the same venue but never looked to be going last time. He too is drawn high and with Pat Smullen an eye-catching booking, he could run better than his 25/1 price suggests.
Advice
JOHARA – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (BetVictor)
2.50 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap
This looks a tricky affair with some smart older horses taking on some of the Classic generation, who may be a little less exposed at the moment.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Top Tug tends to run well without winning a lot of the time and with two furlongs to run at York last time you would have called him the winner. However, his effort petered out inside the final furlong and he shaped as though he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip. It is hard to know what his best trip is considering that he stays on over 1m2f and looks a non-stayer over any further. My suspicion is that a long straight like it is at Newbury will suit and if he can travel as well as he did at York, he would have to be in the mix. He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground although he has never raced on really soft ground but he looks worth a place on the shortlist.
One four-year-old who did get his head in front last time was What About Carlo who returning to his favourite course Epsom, ran out a ready winner of a conditions event at the end of August. There were only three runners that day but he beat the smart Fattsota by nearly four lengths and Andrew Balding’s Collaboration by another one and three-quarter lengths. That was a marked step up on anything he has done this year and with it having come on heavy ground, the conditions here should be no problem. He has won off a mark of 94 in the past so 96 (which he races off today) shouldn’t weight him out of it. This looks more competitive than his last race but he arrives in good form and it would be no surprise to see him go close again.
A member of the Classic generation has won two of the last three renewals of this race and following a testing week, I’m sure Luca Cumani will be hoping that Laurence can run well for the yard. He beat a smart filly of William Haggas’ at Beverley last time, getting first run on her before staying on strongly in the closing stages. He gets a 5lb penalty for that effort which shouldn’t be an issue but the ground may be his biggest concern. He has raced on soft only once as a two-year-old and was well beaten in third but he is a bit stronger now and may be able to cope with it better. He has raced exclusively on ground described as good or faster subsequently which suggests his trainer has concerns, but he is progressive and should show up well.
However, I am going to side with Tom Dascombe’s CYMRO who has won three times this season over 1m2f on ground with a bit of cut in it. He looked as good as he ever has at Haydock last time, stretching clear to win by two and a quarter lengths at the line. He too carries a 5lb penalty for those exertions but conditions seem to be in his favour once again here and I fancy him to run well. The only negative is the draw out in stall 14 but if he can overcome that I think he has a solid each-way chance at around 10/1.
Advice
CYMRO – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Boylesports)
3.10 Ayr – William Hill Doonside Cup (Listed Race)
This looks as strong a renewal of this race as there has been for a while and the first place to start is with Top Notch Tonto. Brian Ellison’s five-year-old has been the model of consistency this season winning at York in June before being placed in Group company on his last three starts. The latest of those was at Leopardstown on Saturday where he was a staying on second behind Custom Cut, suggesting that the return to 1m2f should suit him. He carries a 4lb penalty for that Listed win earlier in the campaign but is tough and genuine and looks likely to play a big part in the outcome here.
However, should he line-up, it is hard to look past EAGLE TOP who was last seen when beaten in the King George by Postponed in July. That form has obviously been boosted with the winner having won in France last weekend and there is no doubt that John Gosden’s colt is a bit better than Listed class. He also has an entry at Newbury on Saturday so it might be a case of where he gets the best ground but if he runs here, I find it hard to see him getting turned over.
Of the rest of the field, William Haggas’ Mutakayyef made an encouraging reappearance behind Mondialiste at York in August and should come on for that run. He was placed three times in Group company last term so should be thereabouts and has a good draw in stall 1. If Eagle Top doesn’t run, he is my idea of the most likely winner.
Advice
EAGLE TOP – 2pts win
Mutakayyef – 1pt win (if Eagle Top is a non runner)
3.45 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)
The Ayr Gold Cup is one of the most fiercely contested sprints anywhere in Europe with twenty seven runners hurtling down the straight six furlongs at Ayr. This year’s renewal looks no different but hopefully by considering the recent trends, we can find the winner.
One of the strongest trends associated with the race is the weight trend and 9st 2lb appears to be the limit in this contest. In fact only Our Jonathan, Advanced and last year’s winner Louis The Pious have defied this trend in recent years, so it is best to keep on the right side of it. In terms of this year’s field this rules out everyone from Jack Dexter down to Red Pike.
Looking at the age of recent winners, it is clear that four and five-year-olds have dominated recent renewals having had seven of the last ten winners. In terms of the rest, we have to go back to Funfair Wane in 2002 to find the last three-year-old winner and as for the older horses, since 1980 the oldest winner was the seven-year-old Hard To Figure which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Hoof It, Highland Colori and Dinkum Diamond.
The draw can often play a big part in the outcome of races such as this and this race is no different. In recent years the best place to be is towards either rail, more specifically seven of the last ten winners were drawn no more than eight stalls from either rail. Applying that to this year’s field suggests that the likes of Highland Acclaim, Toofi and Lexington Abbey are drawn well amongst the low numbers and on the other side, Blaine, Red Pike and Tanzeel have prime positions.
It is perhaps not surprising given the competitive nature of the race, but horses tend to come here on the top of their game to win here. A top four finish on their latest outing is something that six of the last ten winners have had in common, including five of the last six, so it seems unwise to ignore it. This year this statistic just about splits the field in half with some of those arriving in form including Don’t Touch, Hoof It and Rene Mathis.
When looking at trainer trends, it is apparent that horses trained in the south have not done as well as their northern rivals in recent years. In fact only three of the last ten winners have been trained outside the North of England suggesting that the likes of Tanzeel, Majestic Moon, Ninjago and Boom The Groom are up against it here.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with only one winning favourite in the last 35 years, I think it is fair to say we can afford to take on the market principals here. At the time of writing, Don’t Touch currently heads the betting which is a negative for him and with no single figure SP winners in the last decade, it gives us license to look for one at a big price.
Shortlist
LEXINGTON ABBEY – 6/6
Highland Acclaim – 5/6
Blaine – 5/6
Conclusion
Having applied all of the trends, the standout candidate is LEXINGTON ABBEY who scores a perfect six from six. He has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and was last seen finishing a narrow second at Nottingham back in July. He was fifth in the Silver Cup twelve months ago but races off a career high mark of 97 here. I think it is interesting that Kevin Ryan has booked Pat Smullen to ride as the pair teamed up with Captain Ramius to good effect in 2012. He is drawn on the far side in stall 7 and having appeared to have been kept back with this race in mind, he looks sure to go well.
Also on the shortlist is David O’Meara’s HIGHLAND ACCLAIM who despite having an indifferent start to the season, has found some form of late. He ran well at York’s Ebor meeting to finish second and aside from a lacklustre effort at Ascot he returned to form at Doncaster last weekend finishing fifth. The return to six furlongs should work in his favour here and having run well in the race last year, he looks likely to go well again this time around. The only trend he misses is the top four finish having finished fifth at Doncaster last week but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile.
The shortlist is completed by BLAINE who like Highland Acclaim misses the form trend having finished tenth when last seen at York in July. He was third in the race off a 6lb higher mark last year and with the blinkers having been left off for his latest test, they are refitted for this assignment. He hasn’t shown much form all year so needs to bounce right back to his best, but he looks dangerously handicapped and could take advantage of his workable mark.
Advice
LEXINGTON ABBEY – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (General)
3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch Trial (Handicap)
This race proved a good guide to the Cesarewitch last year and given the quality of the field this time around, I think we will gain a few clues this time around as well.
The first one to mention is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Sands Of Fortune who ran away with a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood over 2m5f. He made all that day before kicking clear in the closing stages and in truth he never looked like being caught, winning by six lengths at the line. The handicapper has since raised him 9lb in a bid to stop such a convincing performance from happening again but you wouldn’t be totally sure that that will be enough. He is clearly a strong stayer and having had just five runs in his career to date, there is no reason that he can’t still be improving.
David Pipe saddles an intriguing runner in the shape of Low Key who won two 1m4f handicaps in 2014, all be it off much lower mark than he races off today. It has taken the eight-year-old to get a hang of things of hurdles but he has now won his last two starts over obstacles, most recently a couple of weeks ago at Fontwell. He is clearly in fine form at present but runs here off 17lb higher than he did the last time he ran on the flat. Runners from the Pipe yard always deserve a second look and with the in-form Tom Marquand booked, it would be no surprise to see him go well.
There are also two runners from the Tony Martin stable in the shape of Cassells Rock and Encrypted Message and whilst there isn’t much between them I slightly prefer the former. He was beaten less than a length in a big handicap at Leopardstown off a similar mark to this one and comes here on the back of a smooth success over hurdles in August. He was pushed out under hands and heels that day suggesting that there is more to come and I think he is the pick of the Martin duo.
However, I am going to side with BIG EASY who was actually beaten in this race last year before winning the real thing a few weeks later. He runs here off just 4lb higher than he won the Cesarewitch off last term and having showed improved form over hurdles subsequently, he may just have improved since this time last year. You would normally say that there is 40lb between a horse’s flat mark and hurdles mark and in this case there is 52lb which suggests that there is probably some improvement to find in his current flat mark. He just couldn’t quite get to the winner last year but now that we know he stays the trip I think he will be ridden more positively. He has course and distance form and looks a solid each-way bet at around the 15/2 mark.
Advice
BIG EASY – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (SkyBet)
Our action on Saturday gets underway with this Group 3 for fillies over the straight six furlongs up at Ayr.
Clive Cox’s Priceless is likely to be popular in the market having run out a ready winner on her racecourse debut at Haydock at the beginning of the month. A 70,000 guineas purchase as a yearling, she travelled smoothly throughout in the hands of Adam Kirby and having hit the front inside the final furlong, she stretched clear to win by seven lengths at the line. In truth the form doesn’t look up to much but she was well on top at the line and I don’t think you can hold that against her. She clearly has plenty of ability but she will face several rivals here with a bit more experience here and we should learn more about her. She obviously deserves plenty of respect given the way that she won on debut but I wouldn’t be keen on taking a short price about her and think there are better options in the race.
Richard Hannon’s Whatdoiwantthatfor has had plenty of racing but won a Listed race at Newbury in August and despite already being beaten twice at this level, she should be respected. She ran into a smart performer in the shape of La Rioja at Salisbury last time and I don’t think it is unfair to say that there isn’t anything of that quality in this field. She has plenty of experience and on official ratings, she is the one to beat.
However, David Barron’s LADY CLAIR brings Lowther form to the table having finished fourth in the York contest last time and could be the each-way bet in the race. She improved for the step up to six furlongs and had only Besharah, Lumiere and Easton Angel ahead of her at the line. She was ridden patiently that day before staying on in the closing stages and I think she will be ridden with more confidence here. She has improved with each of her three starts to date and looks to have the right sort of profile to win this race. She is available at around the 7/1 mark and in a wide open event, I think she has strong each-way claims.
Advice
LADY CLAIR – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (William Hill)
2.05 Newmarket – Federation Of Bloodstock Agents “Ebf Stallions” Maiden Fillies´ Stakes
It is not often that I include maidens in my previews given the number of unknown factors involved in such a race but John Gosden introduces a nice filly by the name of EYESHINE. She is a daughter of the Oaks winner Casual Look and cost a whopping 1.45 million dollars when she went through the ring as a yearling. The yard are reported to think quite a bit of her and considering that this maiden has been won by the likes of Midday, Taghrooda and Lady Of Dubai in recent years, it often turns out to be a strong race. She could be an Oaks filly for next year all being well and it will be interesting to see how she gets on. The Gosden yard tend to be fairly straight for their debuts and I think she can run a big race.
The main danger is likely to be Haggle who finished third behind Ballydoyle and Nemoralia in a maiden at the July meeting. She stayed on well that day over seven furlongs so the extra furlong should help. The yard’s runners tend to come on for a run and having missed a similar engagement a couple of weeks ago on account of the ground, she has been set this assignment. She should be more popular in the market than she was on debut and looks the one we have to beat.
Advice
EYESHINE – 1pt win
2.15 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
Once again we are likely to have soft ground for the Mill Reef and as we saw last year with Toocoolforschool, whether these two-year-olds handle it can have a big effect on the outcome.
The current favourite at the time of writing is Richard Fahey’s Ribchester who despite still being a maiden has already achieved a good level of form in two starts. He was beaten by a member of the William Haggas who had the benefit of experience at Doncaster on debut before chasing home Ajaya in the Gimcrack last time. It took a while for the penny to drop that day but he was motoring inside the final furlong and although he never looked like catching the winner, he is clearly smart. He has subsequently been bought by Godolphin and should be thereabouts but I would not be too keen about taking 13/8.
Instead I think the one to be with is RAUCOUS who finished behind Richard Fahey’s colt in the Gimcrack but crucially is proven on the ground having won on soft ground at Newmarket in July. Despite having had three runs, he was still very green at York and should be able to step forward from that effort. William Haggas has a pretty smart bunch of juveniles this season so should have a good idea of how good this lad is. In truth I don’t think there is much between the two colts I have mentioned but at the prices and with the latter already proven on the ground, he gets the nod.
I should also briefly mention Bryan Smart’s King Robert who won on very soft ground at Carlisle and has since followed up at Chester. I would be surprised if he were good enough to win but he will handle the conditions and could run better than his price suggests.
Advice
RAUCOUS – 1pt win @ 11/4 (Coral, BetVictor)
2.35 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap)
The Silver Cup looks an interesting puzzle to solve as cases can easily be made for just over half of the field but I have managed to narrow the shortlist down to a more manageable four.
Towards the head of the weights, David O’Meara’s Eccleston looks to be of plenty of interest having run well when drawn on the wrong side in the Great St Wilfrid before winning at Thirsk next time. The form has worked out well with the runner-up Another Wise Kid also running well in the Portland at Doncaster last weekend. He gets a 5lb penalty for that latest win and missed the cut for the Gold Cup by just a couple of pounds. The draw hasn’t been overly kind to him here as historically those drawn on either rail tend to be favoured, although last year the stands side group looked to have a major advantage. He is drawn in the middle in 13 so Danny Tudhope will have the option of going either way but I think there are better fancies in the race.
Richard Fahey has won this race twice in the last decade and saddles three runners in this year’s field but his best chance must be with George Bowen who landed a big prize when winning a the Curragh last weekend. From a poor draw, Jamie Spencer gave him an inspired ride to get him over onto the stands rail and he ran on well at the line to win by one and three-quarter lengths. That followed a win at Newmarket in August and he arrives here in search of the hat-trick and is difficult to dismiss.
However, I like the chances of Chris Wall’s JOHARA who having been off the track for more than a year ran well to finish fourth behind Eccleston at Thirsk last time. The filly was held up and didn’t get an entirely clear passage so her effort needs marking up. She finished only one and three-quarter lengths behind the winner that day and with a slight pull in the weights and normal improvement after such a long lay-off she should be able to run well. She is drawn on the stands side rail in 25 which was the place to be last year and with the Wall team continuing to fire in the winners, she gets the nod at around the 8/1 mark.
At a bigger price, I think Kevin Ryan’s Teruntum Star could run well if he is none the worse for his run at Newmarket in August. Prior to that he had won well at the same venue but never looked to be going last time. He too is drawn high and with Pat Smullen an eye-catching booking, he could run better than his 25/1 price suggests.
Advice
JOHARA – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (BetVictor)
2.50 Newbury – Dubai Duty Free Handicap
This looks a tricky affair with some smart older horses taking on some of the Classic generation, who may be a little less exposed at the moment.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Top Tug tends to run well without winning a lot of the time and with two furlongs to run at York last time you would have called him the winner. However, his effort petered out inside the final furlong and he shaped as though he didn’t stay the 1m4f trip. It is hard to know what his best trip is considering that he stays on over 1m2f and looks a non-stayer over any further. My suspicion is that a long straight like it is at Newbury will suit and if he can travel as well as he did at York, he would have to be in the mix. He seems pretty versatile in terms of ground although he has never raced on really soft ground but he looks worth a place on the shortlist.
One four-year-old who did get his head in front last time was What About Carlo who returning to his favourite course Epsom, ran out a ready winner of a conditions event at the end of August. There were only three runners that day but he beat the smart Fattsota by nearly four lengths and Andrew Balding’s Collaboration by another one and three-quarter lengths. That was a marked step up on anything he has done this year and with it having come on heavy ground, the conditions here should be no problem. He has won off a mark of 94 in the past so 96 (which he races off today) shouldn’t weight him out of it. This looks more competitive than his last race but he arrives in good form and it would be no surprise to see him go close again.
A member of the Classic generation has won two of the last three renewals of this race and following a testing week, I’m sure Luca Cumani will be hoping that Laurence can run well for the yard. He beat a smart filly of William Haggas’ at Beverley last time, getting first run on her before staying on strongly in the closing stages. He gets a 5lb penalty for that effort which shouldn’t be an issue but the ground may be his biggest concern. He has raced on soft only once as a two-year-old and was well beaten in third but he is a bit stronger now and may be able to cope with it better. He has raced exclusively on ground described as good or faster subsequently which suggests his trainer has concerns, but he is progressive and should show up well.
However, I am going to side with Tom Dascombe’s CYMRO who has won three times this season over 1m2f on ground with a bit of cut in it. He looked as good as he ever has at Haydock last time, stretching clear to win by two and a quarter lengths at the line. He too carries a 5lb penalty for those exertions but conditions seem to be in his favour once again here and I fancy him to run well. The only negative is the draw out in stall 14 but if he can overcome that I think he has a solid each-way chance at around 10/1.
Advice
CYMRO – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Boylesports)
3.10 Ayr – William Hill Doonside Cup (Listed Race)
This looks as strong a renewal of this race as there has been for a while and the first place to start is with Top Notch Tonto. Brian Ellison’s five-year-old has been the model of consistency this season winning at York in June before being placed in Group company on his last three starts. The latest of those was at Leopardstown on Saturday where he was a staying on second behind Custom Cut, suggesting that the return to 1m2f should suit him. He carries a 4lb penalty for that Listed win earlier in the campaign but is tough and genuine and looks likely to play a big part in the outcome here.
However, should he line-up, it is hard to look past EAGLE TOP who was last seen when beaten in the King George by Postponed in July. That form has obviously been boosted with the winner having won in France last weekend and there is no doubt that John Gosden’s colt is a bit better than Listed class. He also has an entry at Newbury on Saturday so it might be a case of where he gets the best ground but if he runs here, I find it hard to see him getting turned over.
Of the rest of the field, William Haggas’ Mutakayyef made an encouraging reappearance behind Mondialiste at York in August and should come on for that run. He was placed three times in Group company last term so should be thereabouts and has a good draw in stall 1. If Eagle Top doesn’t run, he is my idea of the most likely winner.
Advice
EAGLE TOP – 2pts win
Mutakayyef – 1pt win (if Eagle Top is a non runner)
3.45 Ayr – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (HANDICAP BREAKERS RACE)
The Ayr Gold Cup is one of the most fiercely contested sprints anywhere in Europe with twenty seven runners hurtling down the straight six furlongs at Ayr. This year’s renewal looks no different but hopefully by considering the recent trends, we can find the winner.
One of the strongest trends associated with the race is the weight trend and 9st 2lb appears to be the limit in this contest. In fact only Our Jonathan, Advanced and last year’s winner Louis The Pious have defied this trend in recent years, so it is best to keep on the right side of it. In terms of this year’s field this rules out everyone from Jack Dexter down to Red Pike.
Looking at the age of recent winners, it is clear that four and five-year-olds have dominated recent renewals having had seven of the last ten winners. In terms of the rest, we have to go back to Funfair Wane in 2002 to find the last three-year-old winner and as for the older horses, since 1980 the oldest winner was the seven-year-old Hard To Figure which doesn’t bode well for the likes of Hoof It, Highland Colori and Dinkum Diamond.
The draw can often play a big part in the outcome of races such as this and this race is no different. In recent years the best place to be is towards either rail, more specifically seven of the last ten winners were drawn no more than eight stalls from either rail. Applying that to this year’s field suggests that the likes of Highland Acclaim, Toofi and Lexington Abbey are drawn well amongst the low numbers and on the other side, Blaine, Red Pike and Tanzeel have prime positions.
It is perhaps not surprising given the competitive nature of the race, but horses tend to come here on the top of their game to win here. A top four finish on their latest outing is something that six of the last ten winners have had in common, including five of the last six, so it seems unwise to ignore it. This year this statistic just about splits the field in half with some of those arriving in form including Don’t Touch, Hoof It and Rene Mathis.
When looking at trainer trends, it is apparent that horses trained in the south have not done as well as their northern rivals in recent years. In fact only three of the last ten winners have been trained outside the North of England suggesting that the likes of Tanzeel, Majestic Moon, Ninjago and Boom The Groom are up against it here.
The final factor worthy of consideration is the betting and with only one winning favourite in the last 35 years, I think it is fair to say we can afford to take on the market principals here. At the time of writing, Don’t Touch currently heads the betting which is a negative for him and with no single figure SP winners in the last decade, it gives us license to look for one at a big price.
Shortlist
LEXINGTON ABBEY – 6/6
Highland Acclaim – 5/6
Blaine – 5/6
Conclusion
Having applied all of the trends, the standout candidate is LEXINGTON ABBEY who scores a perfect six from six. He has snuck in at the bottom of the weights and was last seen finishing a narrow second at Nottingham back in July. He was fifth in the Silver Cup twelve months ago but races off a career high mark of 97 here. I think it is interesting that Kevin Ryan has booked Pat Smullen to ride as the pair teamed up with Captain Ramius to good effect in 2012. He is drawn on the far side in stall 7 and having appeared to have been kept back with this race in mind, he looks sure to go well.
Also on the shortlist is David O’Meara’s HIGHLAND ACCLAIM who despite having an indifferent start to the season, has found some form of late. He ran well at York’s Ebor meeting to finish second and aside from a lacklustre effort at Ascot he returned to form at Doncaster last weekend finishing fifth. The return to six furlongs should work in his favour here and having run well in the race last year, he looks likely to go well again this time around. The only trend he misses is the top four finish having finished fifth at Doncaster last week but he looks to have an otherwise strong profile.
The shortlist is completed by BLAINE who like Highland Acclaim misses the form trend having finished tenth when last seen at York in July. He was third in the race off a 6lb higher mark last year and with the blinkers having been left off for his latest test, they are refitted for this assignment. He hasn’t shown much form all year so needs to bounce right back to his best, but he looks dangerously handicapped and could take advantage of his workable mark.
Advice
LEXINGTON ABBEY – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (General)
3.50 Newmarket – Betfred Cesarewitch Trial (Handicap)
This race proved a good guide to the Cesarewitch last year and given the quality of the field this time around, I think we will gain a few clues this time around as well.
The first one to mention is Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Sands Of Fortune who ran away with a valuable handicap at Glorious Goodwood over 2m5f. He made all that day before kicking clear in the closing stages and in truth he never looked like being caught, winning by six lengths at the line. The handicapper has since raised him 9lb in a bid to stop such a convincing performance from happening again but you wouldn’t be totally sure that that will be enough. He is clearly a strong stayer and having had just five runs in his career to date, there is no reason that he can’t still be improving.
David Pipe saddles an intriguing runner in the shape of Low Key who won two 1m4f handicaps in 2014, all be it off much lower mark than he races off today. It has taken the eight-year-old to get a hang of things of hurdles but he has now won his last two starts over obstacles, most recently a couple of weeks ago at Fontwell. He is clearly in fine form at present but runs here off 17lb higher than he did the last time he ran on the flat. Runners from the Pipe yard always deserve a second look and with the in-form Tom Marquand booked, it would be no surprise to see him go well.
There are also two runners from the Tony Martin stable in the shape of Cassells Rock and Encrypted Message and whilst there isn’t much between them I slightly prefer the former. He was beaten less than a length in a big handicap at Leopardstown off a similar mark to this one and comes here on the back of a smooth success over hurdles in August. He was pushed out under hands and heels that day suggesting that there is more to come and I think he is the pick of the Martin duo.
However, I am going to side with BIG EASY who was actually beaten in this race last year before winning the real thing a few weeks later. He runs here off just 4lb higher than he won the Cesarewitch off last term and having showed improved form over hurdles subsequently, he may just have improved since this time last year. You would normally say that there is 40lb between a horse’s flat mark and hurdles mark and in this case there is 52lb which suggests that there is probably some improvement to find in his current flat mark. He just couldn’t quite get to the winner last year but now that we know he stays the trip I think he will be ridden more positively. He has course and distance form and looks a solid each-way bet at around the 15/2 mark.
Advice
BIG EASY – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (SkyBet)
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