2014 Hennessy Gold Cup

[Old Vic]

Rich Ricci today ...

The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury is a possible option for Djakadam,

[Faugheen_Machine]

When are the entries out for this? I'm interested to see if Morning Assembly is an intended runner.

[Yeehaa]

Not a massive fan of Mullins trained chasers but Djakadam could be well handicapped.

Don't think entries come out until after Open meeting. Race is on 28 November.

What has Nicholls for it ?

[Faugheen_Machine]

The only two Nicholls mentions in One Jump Ahead are Rocky Creek and Sam Winner.

[Old Vic]

A few trends

http://www.fatjockey.com/news-blogs/racing_news.php?Hennessy-Gold-Cup-2014-Trends-307

and alternative summaries

mmary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 6 or 7

- Carrying 11-0+

- Officially rated 145 to 161

- Run in 3 to 14 chases (winning at least 40%) or finished in first 6 in a previous Hennessy

- Won a class 2 or better chase over 3M+

- Previously won a graded chase

- Finished in the first 3 last time out

- Posted an RPR of 151+ on last completed chase start

- Previously run in 0 or 1 handicap chase (no more than 8)

- Won a chase at Newbury over 2M 4F+ (or having first chase run here)

- Second season chaser that ran in last season’s RSA and/or Feltham Chase or

- Third or fourth season chaser that ran in United House Gold Cup last time

- Tends to race prominently

- Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe or Philip Hobbs


or

1/12 – Aged 8 or younger

11/12 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before

10/12 – Had run at Newbury before (6 had won over fences there)

10/12 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before

10/12 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences

9/12 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old

9/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting

9/12 – Carried 10-13 or more

9/12 – Finished in the first 3 last time out

9/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more

8/12 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out

8/12 – Rated between 140 and 151

6/12 – Won by an Irish-bred horse

6/12 – Won last time out

6/12 – Unplaced favourites

6/12 – Had a previous run that season

4/12 – Winning favourites (1 joint)

3/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

2/12 – Trained by the Pipe stable

2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last two)

2/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh

2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (last two)

The average winning SP in the last 12 years is 9/1

Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)

Since 1990 (24 runnings) there have been 12 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old


Not many 5 years olds have tried

5yo: 0-0-2

6yo: 3-9-27

7yo: 5-8-59

8yo: 1-2-24

9yo: 1-5-42

10yo: 0-3-16

11yo+: 0-1-7

[Old Vic]

^ all of which leads me to unioniste ( going with one dart but ew of course