2022 Flat Racing Antepost thread

[BigChaang]

Putting my Scattergun - Melbourne Cup Selections here. Deauville Legend . - 10-1 .
.................................................. ....................................... Without a Fight .....- 16-1.
.................................................. .......................................... Allegron ................- 20-1.----- Non Runner.
.................................................. ...........................................Knight' s Order ..... - 25-1.
.................................................. .......................................... Durston .............. - 33-1.------- Non Runner.
.................................................. .......................................... Arapaho ..............- 100-1.
Corals paying 4 places. if i don't get something with that Lot !!!!!. ..
Added Duais - 20-1. today , after looking at the Draw ./ and Arapaho got in and 66-1 now with not the worst draw.- 29/10/.22.
Added Emissary - 25-1 today , after losing Allegron and reading some Aussie Pointers on the Race. - 30-/10/22.

[parimutuel]

Cheers everyone, pleased some of you followed in, made a couple of quid and witnessed a cracking race

[FinalFurlong91]

Great shout that

[Benjy23]

I did not follow but a 50/1 shout is undoubtedly a lovely one! Well played.

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Me too, much appreciated

[Sprinter Sacre]

Followed you in blindly after reading that, thanks.

was expecting to see wild celebrations in this thread when I logged in but it seems like not many others might have backed it unfortunately.

I did too at 25/1, thank you so much!

[riccirich]

Giga Kick 50/1 e/w The Everest b365

https://www.couriermail.com.au/sport/horse-racing/nsw-racing/unbeaten-threeyearold-giga-kick-gets-his-chance-to-climb-to-the-top-in-15m-the-everest/news-story/b0cdde1d6809193fcd58eb7db90eb071

Followed you in blindly after reading that, thanks.

was expecting to see wild celebrations in this thread when I logged in but it seems like not many others might have backed it unfortunately.

[BookieBasher]

I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off

And exhale...........

Never in doubt

[Morley Street]

https://amp.horseracingnation.com/news/Iowa_sensation_Tylers_Tribe_brings_5_for_5_record_to_Breeders_Cup_123

I’m a sucker for a rags to riches story but at 16/1 this one could be being underestimated

[FinalFurlong91]

Yes agree although he’s hardly going to need a career best to win he could run to the same RPR of his last run and that could still be enough win, so yes I probably would and Certainly at 9/4 (although I will defo wait for final decs and let the 9/4 go because AK comments are concerning). I think Saturday will be good to soft on a strip of ground that’s been unraced all season so If Alan king doesn’t run trueshan on unraced goood to soft it’s ludicrous.

On a seperate note, I can’t get away from Art power in the sprint cup, he’s a fresh horse this season and campaigned for the autumn with his career best RPR last race which is the same prep as last season. He came from the wing to place last year and has to represent some value at 8s with the likes of Rohan half the price. He’s a horse I’ve followed since a three year old, (perhaps some what of cliff horse in group 1 company however I strongly feel Saturday his best chance of getting that group 1) he’ll be hoping for some rain too!

He's like the beat the bank of sprint horses

I do like him though and if kinross doesn't run which I'm hoping he won't see him as the main danger to my creative force antepost bet, who looks a bit on the short side now.

Tenebrism at 6f would also be interesting

[Benjy23]

Aye, I'm not keen to back Trueshan either after that but it looks potentially a very poor renewal and on that basis he's not actually as short as I'd expect at the moment. Coltrane getting smashed by Quickthorn puts me off him being good enough, even with that upset of Trueshan, and Quickthorn's run in the Cadran is enough to put me off him. Princess Zoe another who's effort there I'd be concerned with backing up.

The 3yos are towards the top of the market, and have a pretty poor record in this race? Gone back through the last few years and there was a few relatively fancied and the likes of Strad who was beaten as a 3yo before winning it as an older horse. Waterville was impressive last time out but it's a big step from handicap to Group 1, even a weak looking one. Think the price on him has gone now. Eldar Eldarov won a very weak looking leger (at the moment) but at least that gives him Group 1 form on paper. He's not a definite runner though, and is also short enough - given the 3yo records.

Which basically bring me onto the outsiders and the only slightly interesting one I can find is Raise You? Not even sure he's a definite runner and would really highlight how poor this renewal is as a 6yo that's never even placed in a Group 1 or 2 but... Seems to be improving when being stepped up in trip, and with age. Won a group 3 on first try over 1m 6f, beating Search for a Song comfortably. He's run a 111 RPR there, only 2lb below Trueshan and Coltrane's performance LTO and has actually ran a 117 RPR this season. Doesn't give him all that much to find with most of these, other than peak Trueshan. Was held up too far back and never really got involved in the Irish Leger last time, although was staying on at the finish suggesting an extra 2 furlong isn't an issue, and there's nothing in the sort of Kyprios quality/form coming here. Almost tempted with a speculative each way

[7barrows]

After his last run would you back him regardless of the ground

It's reasonably likely that running him at goodwood has had a significant negative impact on him

He simply didn't seem the horse he was last time

Yes agree although he’s hardly going to need a career best to win he could run to the same RPR of his last run and that could still be enough win, so yes I probably would and Certainly at 9/4 (although I will defo wait for final decs and let the 9/4 go because AK comments are concerning). I think Saturday will be good to soft on a strip of ground that’s been unraced all season so If Alan king doesn’t run trueshan on unraced goood to soft it’s ludicrous.

On a seperate note, I can’t get away from Art power in the sprint cup, he’s a fresh horse this season and campaigned for the autumn with his career best RPR last race which is the same prep as last season. He came from the wing to place last year and has to represent some value at 8s with the likes of Rohan half the price. He’s a horse I’ve followed since a three year old, (perhaps some what of cliff horse in group 1 company however I strongly feel Saturday his best chance of getting that group 1) he’ll be hoping for some rain too!

[FinalFurlong91]

On the turf trap forecast they have had 4mm over night and another 9-13mm forecasted Thursday and Friday. Surely good to soft he still goes ?

After his last run would you back him regardless of the ground

It's reasonably likely that running him at goodwood has had a significant negative impact on him

He simply didn't seem the horse he was last time

[7barrows]

I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off

On the turf trap forecast they have had 4mm over night and another 9-13mm forecasted Thursday and Friday. Surely good to soft he still goes ?

[Benjy23]

I hope you’ve seen a different forecast than me because I’ve been backing Trueshan for best part of 4 months hoping for his ideal conditions and bar maybe a light shower Thursday afternoon it’s not looking like anymore. Got a gut wrenching feeling that he’ll be pulled before Saturday and kept for France. Hopefully if they water the course over the coming days they forget to turn it off

Unfortunately I've not looked at any forecast and was just going for the fact it was raining as I typed that Apologies. Was waiting for cards before having a proper look at the racing in general, including weather forecasts.

Maybe he won't be going off short in that case! And maybe that's an antepost angle to look elsewhere...