2013 World Hurdle

[Yeehaa]

Peter Scu

Most punters will probably have crossed Trustan Times off their World Hurdle shortlists following his defeat by Across The Bay in Haydock’s Rendlesham Hurdle. But I have not completely given up on the gelding trained by Tim Easterby. If he receives the chance to race on better ground than he encountered on Saturday, he still has a squeak of making a place in an open race.

[mayo]

Smad Place

"He's very much (on course for Cheltenham)," said the Barbury Castle handler.

"I toyed with the idea of running him (in Sunday's National Spirit Chase at Fontwell) but with there being only two and a half weeks to the Festival, we decided not to as he is a horse who can take a little bit of time after his races.

"We would definitely like to see some better ground at Cheltenham, but he is on target."

[Old Vic]

Paul Nicholls

@BetfairRacing with no big bucks who do you fancy for the world hurdle #AskPaul

PN: Oscar Whisky

...didnt he tell Dai he didnt want him when he was a novice ?

[Sefton]

Tony Kennan on Betfair

The World Hurdle is a wide-open Grade 1 which is sometimes just the race to have a bet in though I'm struggling to find an angle into this one. Ruby Walsh has talked about the best stayers travelling behind the bridle and Reve De Sivola is that horse in 2013; I just wonder if he jumps well enough though he is hardly a short price. Oscar Whisky is the enigma of the race; his optimum trip is 20 furlongs and one has to wonder do horses win over trips further than their optimum at the Festival? That depends on the opposition and more so the pace but Festival races tend to be hotter than most though like Reve De Sivola he's a fair price.

One horse that isn't is the main Irish challenger Monksland who looks much too tight around 6.0 and if there is a play here it's laying him in the place market. His Zaidpour form from Christmas is weak and he is trained by a serial Festival loser so should be a much bigger price than the front two. I really wish Quevega would pitch up here as she'd be a right bet; her defeat of Voler La Vedette at Punchestown last year is strong form in this context. Her connections lack ambition in keeping her for the mares' race, especially with the yard having numerous other possibilities for that race, and this would be a much better showcase for her talents.

[Morning Glory]

Get me out of here

O’Neill said: “He’s in the Coral Cup and the World Hurdle, we haven’t decided which way to go but I’d like to try him over three miles again and we might well go down the stayers’ route.”

[mayo]

from Bangor

World Hurdle - John Morris likes Wonderful Charm, Rated by PN. Has heard that Reve De Sivola is having training probs!

[mayo]

fiveforthree also going to this according to kevin Blake and justin o'hanlon.

Ruby rides ?

[Super Bobs]

Could be Quevega

G Cunningham

I'm in a different camp here KF as I think Oscar can win it provided the ground isn't testing. Lots of people still don't think he truly gets three miles but I thought he did enough in the Cleeve to give plenty of hope on that score and less demanding ground on World Hurdle day will suit him and possibly work against his main market rival Reve De Sivola. Naturally, it will pay to keep a close eye on the weather, but I'm not especially keen on Monksland and only time will tell whether Willie Mullins throws a sizeable female cat among the pigeons by letting Quevega take her chance in a race which has missed her presence for several seasons now.

[Cooper]

Solwhit now going for this ...wonder if Bog warrior will show ? ie will Russell be free to ride ?

[Grade1]

AGE In its 40 race existence only Gaye Chance, Crimson Embers, Galmoy, Inglis Drever and Big Bucks have won this race when aged 9 or over. All 5 were previous Festival winners, all bar Gaye Chance had won this race before.

6 and 7 year olds. They have taken 17 from the last 22. As 8 year olds Inglis and Baracouda were winning for the second time, Big Bucks for the third. The other two were Anzum and Balasani (of which I can find nothing in common).

No 5 year old has ever won this race. French bred 5 yr olds such as Le Coudray, Cyborgo and Escartifigue went close and Smad Place was third in 2012. 5 of the 11 five year olds to run in the last 13 have been placed

HISTORY - Only Rose Ravine (easy, Great One), Inglis Drever and Big Bucks (twice) have done the Cleeve Hurdle/Stayers double (Reve de Sivola beat Oscar Whisky). However Bacchanal and Inglis were 2nd in the Cleeve and Anzum unplaced before coming here. The Cleeve was only upgraded to 3 miles and Grade 2 status in '05. In the first year only Westender in 3rd went onto March, finished 4th here at 33s. '06 frosted off. The last 6 winners of the Cleeve have finished 3rd/1st/1st/unpl/2nd/1st in this race. In '07 Inglis was 2nd to Blazing Bailey in Cleeve before winning World Hurdle. In '10, Time for Rupert 2nd in Cleeve and 2nd here. Grand Crus in 2011 won the Cleeve and finished a gallant runner up in March.

Inglis Drever and Big Bucks only horse to have done the Long Distance Hurdle (Newbury Hennessey day)/World Hurdle double (Both have done it twice). Big Bucks and My Way have did the Long Walk/Stayers double although My Way's Long Walk was held at Chepstow.

No horse has done the Haydock Trial/World Hurdle double. Baracouda did win both when the Rendlesham was held at Kempton. (Across The Bay not entered)

19 of last 21 had shown good if not winning previous course form (not My Way De Solzen).
IRISH TRAINERS - No winners since Dorans Pride ‘95. However Voler La Vedette, Mourad, Powerstation (3rd in 2010 and 2009) join Kazal, Rule Supreme, Limestone Lad (twice), Golden Cross, Bannow Bay and Le Coudray as all placed in the last 13 races. Solerina and Sallie's Girl were also 4th. In total 11 placed from 37 competitors. Voler La Vedette and Powerstation in 2010 only ones who were not the shortest priced of the Irish runners. Monksland

Last 5 Irish winners all came from the Boyne Hurdle at Navan and Golden Cross was 2nd here. (On his Own not coming)

Mares with their 7 lbs allowance. 17 have tried in the past 19; 1 winner, 2 second, 2 thirds and three fourths (Voler La Vedette great ride in 2012). Kentford Grey Lady?

26 from last 27 winners all 1st or 2nd in either of last two runs. Everything since ’86 had finished in the first four last time out. Last 13 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out. None of the last 11 winners finished outside the first 2 in any hurdle run that season.

7 since ‘86 had not won that season (’04 Iris’s Gift – one run 2nd).
Last 14 winners number of previous runs that season between 1 and 5. (Big Bucks had 4 '09, 2 in '10, 3 in '11, 3 in '12)

Inglis's third win was his 21st race over hurdles. Big Bucks fourth last year was his 29th, the remainder of the last 13 had between 6 and 17 runs over hurdles before this.

Rustle, Karshi, Trapper John, Inglis Drever all placed in previous years Neptune Novice Hurdle before winning this (Monksland 3rd last year).

2 of the last 8 had run in a handicap hurdle in the same season they won this. No headgear wearers from 41 triers (only Cross Kennon last year, 7th).

FORM RACES My Way de Solzen only one of the last 15 not to have been placed (at least) in a Grade I hurdle in the previous years Festival (if given the chance). Doran’s Pride as well, but he fell at the last when disputing second in the Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle.

Of the 27 winners since ’83 only Big Bucks (first time), My Way, Doran’s, Balasani and Shuil Ar Aghaidh had been unable to gain a place at the previous Festival when given the opportunity to do so. The latter pair had been unplaced in one of the handicap hurdles. (Big Bucks unplaced in Jewson '08)

PRICE Nothing bigger than 8/1 since 1999 including 5 favourites. The previous three went 40/1, 16/1 and 20/1. In '10 Big Bucks was the only odds on shot of the whole week to win (from 4). In '09 first three home came from the first five in market, in the three years before that all the placed horses came from the first four in the market. Only 6 horses outside the first 4 in the betting have been placed since 2002. (And Powerstation did it twice).

No frontrunners successful since Cyborgo in ’96. Only Limestone Lad placed since.

TIMES: Fastest time in past 10 years was Bacchanal ‘00 in 5 mins 36 secs on good to firm followed by My Way De Solzen in 5.38. Iris Gift did it in 5.49, the Fish in ’03 was 5.41.
Inglis Drever’s first win ’05 was done in 5.48. ‘07 he improved on that to 5.46. '08 '09 slower ground resulted in 5.53 and 5.57.

In the Cleeve in January Reve De Sivola scrambled home in 6 mins 32secs on heavy ground. Big Bucks did that race in 5 mins 58secs on Good to Soft in 2011. 2012 World Hurdle win was achieved in 5 mins 44s on good ground, 5 mins 50 in 2011, 5 mins 49 in 2010. (Buena Vista 2011 repeat win in the Pertemps 10 secs faster than World Hurdle). 2012 Handicap done in the same time, '09 World Hurdle 5 secs faster than the h'cap, '08, 10 seconds faster. Monksland did 6 mins 15 when winning Woodies DIY on soft at Leopardstown at Christmas, Voler La Vedette 6 mins 7 secs on good ground last season.

Times for three 3 mile novice hurdles run on the next day: Moulin Riche 5.55, Black Jack Ketchum 5.38 (same time as that years Stayers) and Witchita Lineman in 5.43 which was three seconds faster than his elders. '09 6 mins dead, '10, 5.55 in '11, Bobs Worth did 5.42 last year.

FORM OVER 3 MILES. Since 1989 there have been 17 different winners of this race. 5 of them were attempting 3 miles for the first time. They were Inglis Drever, Bacchanal, Karshi, Princeful and Nomadic Way. Inglis actually came here from winning the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial and then the Kingwell at Wincanton in 3m 47secs. He had been second to Fundamentalist in the Neptune Novice Hurdle the previous season. Apart from Inglis in 2012 the last 29 from 33 win and place had won over 3 miles. The other three were Kazal and Crystal D'Ainay who were placed in Graded 3 milers before this and Smad Place last year on his first run over 3 miles. Kazal had won a Graded Race over 2m 6f in a Limerick bog.

No ex champion hurdle contender has won since Nomadic Way in 1992. Since then Zaynar, Ashkazar, Hardy Eustace and Oscar Whisky have tried unsuccessfully. Oscar Whisky

JOCKEYS - AP yet to win this.

[Morning Glory]

Where are we now ...

Top runners by RPR

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
51-112 Oscar Whisky47 8 11-10 Nicky Henderson 167 151 174
53-211 Reve De Sivola47 8 11-10 Nick Williams 166 134 171
1/111- Quevega322 9 11-3 W P Mullins — 141 170
3-F111 Bog Warrior49 9 11-10 A J Martin — 144 168
251222 Zaidpour26 7 11-10 W P Mullins — 129 168
13-121 Monksland76 6 11-10 Noel Meade — 143 165
23U-32 Smad Place82 6 11-10 Alan King 157 156 165
21-14P Get Me Out Of Here78 9 11-10 Jonjo OŽNeill 158 156 163
9-4321 So Young26 7 11-10 W P Mullins — 131 162
222/21 Solwhit54 9 11-10 C Byrnes — 137 161
41-210 Oscara Dara40 8 11-10 Nicky Henderson 154 142 160
41-121 Tidal Bay76 12 11-10 Paul Nicholls DOUBTFUL 160 111 158
6-1132 Trustan Times26 7 11-10 Tim Easterby 150 138 157
2-1334 Kentford Grey Lady26 7 11-3 Emma Lavelle 139 121 156
3-2041 Prospect Wells18 8 11-10 Paul Nicholls 150 130 154
134357 Whatuthink11 11 11-10 Oliver McKiernan — 121 154
1129-4 Celestial Halo26 9 11-10 Paul Nicholls 161 127 152


Oscar Whisky best horse in the race but lingering doubts from some if he will stay of a faster run race than the cleeve
Reve De Sivola has form in the book and looks set to run but there were rumours of a setback about
A Quevega run looks very unlikely,
Bog Warrior... ground dependent (needs soft) but Davy wont be pushing for a run now he has Solwhit
Zaidpour ..disappointed in Red Mills a NR anyway?
Monksland looks to be out,
Smad Place best placed finisher of last years runners but hasnt sparked this term..not a lot of love at previews?
It seems GMOOH goes here..festival bridesmaid overdue win here day and most likely pricewise pick on the day imo
Willie Mullins put So Young up as ew charity bet at Oliver Brady's night not out of it on ratings..
Solwhit looks to be in...Barry G considers him main danger other than RDS

Others: Ruby's ride...
Fiveforthree got mentioned last week but maybe now heads for Coral Cup
Wonderful Charm might head in opposite direction
Hadnt him down as the sentimental type but Ruby might ride in Big Bucks colours - Celestial Halo his ride?
Trustan Times mentioned as an outsider with ew chance.
Grands Crus pleased in gallop yesterday but not yet confirmed ...gone at the game or was it ulcers?

My World Hurdle 1-2-3

1. Oscar Whisky
2. GMOOH (again)
3. Trustan Times

[Old Vic]

Looks like Wonderful Charm goes here ...flip flop with 543

[Old Vic]

Interesting - Grands Crus co-owner Roger Stanley indicates the horse will run in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

[OnTheBridle]

Oscar Whisky backers- Hills are going 6/1 on him tomorrow from 9am!

[Yeehaa]

Oscar Whisky backers- Hills are going 6/1 on him tomorrow from 9am!

Cracking offer all right ...think hills did the same thing last year ..didn't go Nrnb but had lots of specials ..