The FJ Weekly Punt

[Eggs]

I hadnt said I was definitely putting something up, but on the off chance that anyone is expecting a pick, there won't be one this morning as there is nothing of interest.

If anyone would like to put up a pick next saturday or sunday at the usual time of 10 in the morning then feel free to volunteer. If not i'll just carry it on myself and see how it goes.

….you do that, ricci.

[robith]

I did try......

See post 81

A little each way profit on it lobos, I had a small follow for an interest. Might have even gotten closer if he hadn't been side wide he effectively ran another mile

[FinalFurlong91]

A little each way profit on it lobos, I had a small follow for an interest. Might have even gotten closer if he hadn't been side wide he effectively ran another mile

He'd have gone pretty close if he'd jumped better i reckon. Certainly not one to give up on.

[Lobos]

A little each way profit on it lobos, I had a small follow for an interest. Might have even gotten closer if he hadn't been side wide he effectively ran another mile

Yep, 1.4pt profit from a 2pt stake not bad

[Eggs]

….Saxon put up Noble Birth for Irish National when he was 50-1 and still needed 28 to come out, he still needs 1 withdrawal to get a run but is generally much lower now (Sky still offer 33-1). One to watch on Monday if he gets a spin.

[riccirich]

I'm going to go with Collecting Coin (1:25 cork)

15/2 3 places william hill, 7/1 3 places 365/sky

Not as big a price as I would like to go with if possible, but I think this could be a good one. Up until a few weeks ago this lad held an entry for the guineas. I take note of all horses who hold such entries and in this ones case I think it's more significant than usual. It was not a case of a block entry for a big operation like coolmore, godolphin, moyglare, aga khan etc. Likewise it was not a case of him being trainer/breeder owned, in which case they are looking to sell and hyping the horse up, and fancy entries would be a part of that. I think the only reason for this one having a big entry, is thst he's showing that kind of ability at home. This was also somewhat confirmed by Jessica harringtons stable tour for Irishracing on YouTube recently, when she put him forward as her horse to follow near the end of the video. He still has to show on the track what he's obviously showing at home, which they don't always do, but I think there's enough juice in his price still to chance that he will.

[Eggs]

I'm going to go with Collecting Coin (1:25 cork)

15/2 3 places william hill, 7/1 3 places 365/sky

Not as big a price as I would like to go with if possible, but I think this could be a good one. Up until a few weeks ago this lad held an entry for the guineas. I take note of all horses who hold such entries and in this ones case I think it's more significant than usual. It was not a case of a block entry for a big operation like coolmore, godolphin, moyglare, aga khan etc. Likewise it was not a case of him being trainer/breeder owned, in which case they are looking to sell and hyping the horse up, and fancy entries would be a part of that. I think the only reason for this one having a big entry, is thst he's showing that kind of ability at home. This was also somewhat confirmed by Jessica harringtons stable tour for Irishracing on YouTube recently, when she put him forward as her horse to follow near the end of the video. He still has to show on the track what he's obviously showing at home, which they don't always do, but I think there's enough juice in his price still to chance that he will.

….fair effort, stayed on nicely for a place. 10-1. Well done.

[riccirich]

….fair effort, stayed on nicely for a place. 10-1. Well done.

Thanks. Bit of a theme at the moment with my picks, a lot of eyecatchers without getting the win. Another bit of place money though so i can't complain.

[Glasgow Ronnie]

Followed in, nice 2-1 place Cheers mate

[Lobos]

Will Do looks a Banker for at least a place based on his NHC run and weight advantage over HC plus the clever jockey booking. Scraped in at the last minute!

Edit....25's into 12's

[riccirich]

Cooleys Mist (4:30 Navan)

25/1 3 places widely available, 4 places with skybet.

Natalia lupini is one I always look out for in irish maidens. She gets good quality horses and is always looking to win them if good enough, and her horses tend to be a bit overpriced because her overall profile isn't as big as some other trainers.

Her runners in maidens get backed a fair bit, as you can see with her other runner in this race jet warrior who has been backed in from 50s. That has however seen her other runner cooleys mist drift out to be the same price as jet warrior, who would look her second choice on jockey bookings, so I think cooleys mist is now overpriced myself.

I was watching for his early price yesterday evening and he opened up around 12/1 which i thought was about right so i held off, but 25s are well worth a go. There was money for him overnight before his debut run before he drifted out again before the off, which proved correct as he was slow away and ran green, but he still ran a very promising race to be only beat six lengths. That looked a good quality leopardstown maiden, backed up by the form of those around him in that race, and also rprs if you care about them. He recorded an identical rpr for finishing sixth, as the second fave in today's race for finishing second on his debut. And a 10lb better rpr than the fave for today's race got for his debut. The rpr just helps to back up what I already thought, that the horses in his leopardstown maiden were better than average.

I think he'll outrun his current odds today, where that leaves him is still tricky to know in a maiden, but i think hes hopefully a good chance of finishing in the places at least.