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Stateman would be a certainty for Arkle if taking to fences. Can't see him switching at all though.
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Personally I take no notice of the exchanges for Cheltenham races at this stage, 7 months out the market has yet to mature, there has been a total of 43k traded (21.5k back and 21.5k lay) 75% of which has been on Constitution Hill.Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
I't entirely possible Constitution Hill will be 1/5 or shorter on the day, next best therefore has to be around 8/1 and 10/1 bar.
To me the only thing wildly wrong about the market is the price of the fav who, for me, should be no bigger than 1.5...Comment
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Cheers insta for the reply, am only getting to figure out the exchanges this season so every little bit of info helps.Originally posted by Istabraq View PostComment
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Not that much confidence in Constitution Hill going CH then. If it were a done deal the exchanges would certainly show it.Originally posted by Istabraq View PostComment
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They can be a minefield my friend.Originally posted by HesTheOne View Post
Basic rules for me:
Daily win markets only really mature mid morning
Daily place markets you can ignore until 10 mins before the race
The win price and place price are linked, if you take an order for all the win money the place market will contract, blame the BOTS
Ante Post win markets aren't generally reliable outside the fav/second fav until decs
And the golden rule, before you hit the place bet button read what your bet is, then read it again, it's easy to make mistakes and the BOTS will always take advantage.
Best of luck...
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It's just the nature of the exchanges, there will always be a disparity with bookmaker markets.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
Next UK General Election is 1.19 on betfair, generally a 1/7 shot with the books.
You have to remember that betfair applies the rules of racing without exception, bookmakers often give gimmick refunds for a horse that doesn't leave a stall, turns round at the start, falls at the first, wins then gets disqualified, gets brought down etc, I'm sure plenty there will have been many in here who have been the beneficiary of at least one of these instances in recent years, if your bet is on the exchange then you do your dough.
The price of Constitution Hill is probably more reflective of this than his target...Comment
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TWAR market......
Willmount into 14's from 20's
Iroko 12's from 14'sComment
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
….that’s a big haircut for Willmount, I was going to wait for the next double odds boost & get 40-1 but I’m glad I had a little bit on @22-1 with boost.
i’ll certainly be aiming double odds boost on this market, got 32-1 on Jerico a few days ago, notice he’s still 16-1.Comment
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Very good tool to have.Originally posted by Eggs View Post
Inthepocket is 10's with Hills......just half that in the Skybet TWAR market. That's a huge difference.Comment
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Someone from Hills must be reading this forum, not a surprise really, with the knowledge of some on here.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Potentially yes. Still needs a few to back them though to be cut. This has to be the Premier forum. As you say, the knowledge and attention to detail is incredible. Who needs to pay for tips eh ??Originally posted by Ice View PostComment
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100 percent agree, I've backed many horses for the festival after seeing them highlighted on here and reading the thought process behind them ( or sometimes just blindly ) , the knowledge is second to non and most appreciated by myself and i dare say plenty of others.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
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Re: Allaho Josh Stacey
Connections are ‘hopeful’ Allaho has another big day in him this season. Dual Ryanair winner came back into training earlier this month after a couple of months out at grass. He was close to making it back for Punchestown in the spring.Comment
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Even at 10 after a season out he comes back half a stone worse he would likely still win the ryanair again he was so far ahead of themOriginally posted by HesTheOne View PostComment
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Wouldn’t touch Allaho unless he came back at the start of the season and won in a fashion where it didn’t look like he lost 12 lbs, and no sign of bounce next time out
Too may ifs and but. He’ll be 10, extremely hard ask
id be surprised if we see Allaho again tbh, so hard to get these backComment
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