2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

[Eggs]

I like this thread. Missed a few opportunities because I didn’t see them. FV, the son of Quevega would have been a easy free bet at them prices, but missed the posts :-(

——————-

I’d be interested in Jet Powered for Arkle ‘24

Near enough Supreme bound. Looks like a chaser. C-Hill likley to remain over hurdles and if not, for what ever reason, that champ hurdle could be top notch with this years novice hurdlers and the likes of vaubon returning

Henderson has done this route many times before, sprinter, shishkin, altior, jonbob… chantry house was slow but ended up in turners and winning that after Envoi fell.

I’d be happy to back him this far out as long as price was ok

….Jet Powered 16-1 PP/BFSB, or 33-1 Sup/Ark.

[Kautostar]

Could you get that in a Paddy Power shop?

If you have one locally enough to travel too.

Not sure if they do specials in shop but if someone tries and can report back if would be appreciated

[Istabraq]

Could you get that in a Paddy Power shop?

If you have one locally enough to travel too.

Yes true, there are a few around, none on the doorstep but if I wanted it bad enough I would drive.
I know we're had the discussion several times in here but shop bets are generally referred and restricted.
It is what it is, if/when I'm passing I'll certainly pop in...

[jrjr]

PP have cut the GW Ballymore/Any Race double to 29.0 now

[Odin]

PP have cut the GW Ballymore/Any Race double to 29.0 now

The FatJockey Army strikes again - even though I missed it!

[opatcho]

….Jet Powered 16-1 PP/BFSB, or 33-1 Sup/Ark.

cheers Eggs for pointing this out!!!

[HesTheOne]

I can see why people like these bets but Jesus you’d do well for a horse to turn up ‘23 sound, win and then carry on another campaign of staying sound in ‘24 and winning again..

The array of variables at play you’d want triple figure odds for all that to occur, obviously that’s not a realistic offer but personally I think these are terrible value.

Hindsight is a virtue for those who carry these long term slips - but I couldn’t sign up myself for any of these.

Anyone else on same page or am I being a pessimistic grinch?

If so strength the injection mr bank man still I get stuck into these lol

[Zachx02]

I can see why people like these bets but Jesus you’d do well for a horse to turn up ‘23 sound, win and then carry on another campaign of staying sound in ‘24 and winning again..

The array of variables at play you’d want triple figure odds for all that to occur, obviously that’s not a realistic offer but personally I think these are terrible value.

Hindsight is a virtue for those who carry these long term slips - but I couldn’t sign up myself for any of these.

Anyone else on same page or am I being a pessimistic grinch?

If so strength the injection mr bank man still I get stuck into these lol

High risk, high reward, if the first leg comes off you're not getting the 2nd leg with a big roll up

[Lobos]

High risk, high reward, if the first leg comes off you're not getting the 2nd leg with a big roll up

I've never got involved before but the 66/1 Vega before this year's Fez which my best racing buddy got has made me rethink. If you can get those sort of odds then you can place small stakes for huge returns. Affordable for us small punters but a nightmare for Bookies if they happen. I'll be looking at those that are 25's plus for now and will potentially take lower odds during the week when the 23 race is guaranteed. That's the way to play imo.

[opatcho]

I've just been reviewing the 16/1 for Jet Powered in next years Arkle. From my own eyes (and I'm noooo expert) he looks like a chaser and Henderson is pretty predictable in terms of sending supreme horses to the Arkle

The only blocker was "ohhh but what will they do with Constitution Hill" as I swear I've seen comments on here that they may go chasing with him. Then... I went down the rabbit hole....

If they did take Constitution Hill over fences, then why would they waste a season running him in novice company...? It would be a pointless exercise, the quality over here in terms of the strength and depth is dire. Could a potential chase route be... run twice in novice company, then run him open company as a prep for the Queen Mother?

Connections were speaking up a trip over to Ireland to take on Honey last season.

Again, no idea whether there are firm comments that CH will remain a hurdler long term or if they are tempted to go chasing.... and if so.... I dont think I'd be put off (as long as the price was right) with a little stake on him turning up in the 2024 Queen Mother. I mean why not, Edwardstone and Energumene will be 10 years old (older horses do will in QM's but still... how much longer can they maintain that level), Jonbon could end up winning the Arkle and being short for the QM next season - a horse that CH put aside with easy over hurdles.

Madness... I know, but then.... this is a thread about 2024, anything could happen.

So... back to Jet Powered for '24 Arkle... hmmm, think I'd prefer to take the 33/1 for the double. If Jet Powered is beaten in the supreme, then I imagine he'd be the same sort of price Jonbon was after his supreme run, not sure if anyone can recall what that was... double figures? 12/1? I know Jonbon was 13/2 in September...

[YoungHustler]

I've just been reviewing the 16/1 for Jet Powered in next years Arkle. From my own eyes (and I'm noooo expert) he looks like a chaser and Henderson is pretty predictable in terms of sending supreme horses to the Arkle

The only blocker was "ohhh but what will they do with Constitution Hill" as I swear I've seen comments on here that they may go chasing with him. Then... I went down the rabbit hole....

If they did take Constitution Hill over fences, then why would they waste a season running him in novice company...? It would be a pointless exercise, the quality over here in terms of the strength and depth is dire. Could a potential chase route be... run twice in novice company, then run him open company as a prep for the Queen Mother?

Connections were speaking up a trip over to Ireland to take on Honey last season.

Again, no idea whether there are firm comments that CH will remain a hurdler long term or if they are tempted to go chasing.... and if so.... I dont think I'd be put off (as long as the price was right) with a little stake on him turning up in the 2024 Queen Mother. I mean why not, Edwardstone and Energumene will be 10 years old (older horses do will in QM's but still... how much longer can they maintain that level), Jonbon could end up winning the Arkle and being short for the QM next season - a horse that CH put aside with easy over hurdles.

Madness... I know, but then.... this is a thread about 2024, anything could happen.

So... back to Jet Powered for '24 Arkle... hmmm, think I'd prefer to take the 33/1 for the double. If Jet Powered is beaten in the supreme, then I imagine he'd be the same sort of price Jonbon was after his supreme run, not sure if anyone can recall what that was... double figures? 12/1? I know Jonbon was 13/2 in September...

What about Facile Vega? I've no idea he if will go chasing or stay hurdling.

[opatcho]

What about Facile Vega? I've no idea he if will go chasing or stay hurdling.

Champion Hurdler for me

[Lobos]

Champion Hurdler for me

Maybe not if CH wins next year's Champion easily and stays hurdling. Too many 'ifs' for me.

[HesTheOne]

High risk, high reward, if the first leg comes off you're not getting the 2nd leg with a big roll up

Aye can see the reasoning alright.

Sadly I did the quick math but…. Theoretically you could walk the circumference of the earth almost twice, at a moderate pace before the likes of Barry The B runs and wins the Ballymore 2024. Me thinks that’s a long enough walk to find a few roll ups on them at 7s or 8s after we know a lot more.

(could do the walk twice if your faster than average btw..)

Certainly not knocking anyone here just adding on the perspective of time and value more so. Anything can happen

[Eggs]

Aye can see the reasoning alright.

Sadly I did the quick math but…. Theoretically you could walk the circumference of the earth almost twice, at a moderate pace before the likes of Barry The B runs and wins the Ballymore 2024. Me thinks that’s a long enough walk to find a few roll ups on them at 7s or 8s after we know a lot more.

(could do the walk twice if your faster than average btw..)

Certainly not knocking anyone here just adding on the perspective of time and value more so. Anything can happen

….pretty much defines ante-post. The further out you are the greater the risk and the greater the reward. The risk is off-set by small stake requirement, not forgetting that doing roll-ups at lower prices carries risk of the first leg not winning.

Ante-post, no right or wrong just different approaches.