2023 Novice Hurdlers

[riccirich]

Gordon Elliott on American Mike’s performance at Navan:

️ “He’s not right and isn’t himself. He didn’t run his race and was blowing very hard. We’ll get him checked out at home.”

As a backer I’d like to believe that he genuinely didn’t run his race but I’d take that with a pinch of salt tbh, good chance there just looking for something because of their disappointment. Affordale fury is no mug looking at his form and American mike travelled well enough but was just struggling to go by, I would have been happier if he just went out like a light after the second last but this had the look of a horse just being beaten fair and square, albeit going off to fast could possibly be a bit of an excuse but not really

[JamieSensible]

Gordon Elliott on American Mike’s performance at Navan:

️ “He’s not right and isn’t himself. He didn’t run his race and was blowing very hard. We’ll get him checked out at home.”

Thanks for this, I've decided to cash out my single until I hear he's fit and well.

[Lobos]

With American Mike running a stinker the Ballymore looks even easier for Vega to mop up.

[DenmanSacre]

With American Mike running a stinker the Ballymore looks even easier for Vega to mop up.

Let's hope so.

[Kevloaf]

With American Mike running a stinker the Ballymore looks even easier for Vega to mop up.

With American Mike running a stinker, Facile Vega's form takes a big knock, no?

[ComplyOrDie]

With American Mike running a stinker, Facile Vega's form takes a big knock, no?

Depends if you're the forgiving type or not, fair enough if not but I'll wait to see what comes from Gordon regarding American Mike's run today.

Sounds like they'll be doing some digging around to find the problem as Gordon doesn't believe it was his true running, and I'm inclined to believe that for now.

So on the basis of the Facile Vega form, I'll again hold fire on worrying about him too much yet.

[Irish Rugby]

Yes, benefit of the doubt for me too as regards American Mike until we hear more. All the vibes have been this was a stable star.

[darlojim]

I've just a side by side viewing of American Mikes race against Grangeclare's maiden. Mike and Affordale went an absolutely suidical pace from pretty much the start and just before the turn in to the straight they were probably a furlong or so ahead of Kudasheva.

Worth noting that Mike was carrying 12lb less than Grangeclare and the Monksfield finished in a time 4secs quicker than the maiden.

[charlie]

"I have to say Grangeclare West impressed me, considering he was so keen early on and jumped a bit big during the race. Then he settled and Paul got him together and balanced. Once he got down to gallop he impressed me. The obvious race for him would be the Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle (January 8). He surprised me in the manner he did it there. As I said to the owner before racing, we could run well here and finish fourth or fifth. It looked a good race" - Willie Mullins.

Nice to see Willie name the Lawlor's next, will be interesting to see how he gets on. Supreme or Ballymore seems his overall preference for his first string in that.

2022 - Whatdeawant - Ballymore
2021 - Blue Lord - Supreme
2020 - Elixir D'ainay - Supreme
2018 - Next Destination - Ballymore
2017 - Augusta Kate - Albert Bartlett
2016 - Bellshill - Supreme
2015 - Tell Us More - Supreme
2014 - Briar Hill - Albert Bartlett
2013 - Champagne Fever - Supreme

[Bollinger]

"I have to say Grangeclare West impressed me, considering he was so keen early on and jumped a bit big during the race. Then he settled and Paul got him together and balanced. Once he got down to gallop he impressed me. The obvious race for him would be the Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle (January 8). He surprised me in the manner he did it there. As I said to the owner before racing, we could run well here and finish fourth or fifth. It looked a good race" - Willie Mullins.

Nice to see Willie name the Lawlor's next, will be interesting to see how he gets on. Supreme or Ballymore seems his overall preference for his first string in that.

2022 - Whatdeawant - Ballymore
2021 - Blue Lord - Supreme
2020 - Elixir D'ainay - Supreme
2018 - Next Destination - Ballymore
2017 - Augusta Kate - Albert Bartlett
2016 - Bellshill - Supreme
2015 - Tell Us More - Supreme
2014 - Briar Hill - Albert Bartlett
2013 - Champagne Fever - Supreme

The only problem with using your graphic as evidence here Charlie, in assessing where Grangeclare West might go ‘post Lawlor’s’ is that apart from Champagne Fever a decade ago, none of the above of Mullins won at Cheltenham anyway. Less than half placed at Cheltenham too a couple of months later.

I genuinely appreciate what you’re trying to evaluate here, and for other members here -

but……..

the evidence also paints a stark picture of Mullins lack of success at the Cheltenham festival with any runners he runs in the Lawlor’s 10 weeks beforehand.

[Exar Essay]

"I have to say Grangeclare West impressed me, considering he was so keen early on and jumped a bit big during the race. Then he settled and Paul got him together and balanced. Once he got down to gallop he impressed me. The obvious race for him would be the Lawlors of Naas Novice Hurdle (January 8). He surprised me in the manner he did it there. As I said to the owner before racing, we could run well here and finish fourth or fifth. It looked a good race" - Willie Mullins.

Nice to see Willie name the Lawlor's next, will be interesting to see how he gets on. Supreme or Ballymore seems his overall preference for his first string in that.

2022 - Whatdeawant - Ballymore
2021 - Blue Lord - Supreme
2020 - Elixir D'ainay - Supreme
2018 - Next Destination - Ballymore
2017 - Augusta Kate - Albert Bartlett
2016 - Bellshill - Supreme
2015 - Tell Us More - Supreme
2014 - Briar Hill - Albert Bartlett
2013 - Champagne Fever - Supreme

Of the five that went to the Supreme, all five contested their maiden hurdle over 2m. Those that went to the Bartlett or Ballymore started out over further (2m2f +).

Grangeclare West started out over 2m4f which makes me think Supreme is the least likely trip.

[charlie]

The only problem with using your graphic as evidence here Charlie, in assessing where Grangeclare West might go ‘post Lawlor’s’ is that apart from Champagne Fever a decade ago, none of the above of Mullins won at Cheltenham anyway. Less than half placed at Cheltenham too a couple of months later.

I genuinely appreciate what you’re trying to evaluate here, and for other members here -

but……..

the evidence also paints a stark picture of Mullins lack of success at the Cheltenham festival with any runners he runs in the Lawlor’s 10 weeks beforehand.

I wouldn't really call it evidence, its just what ends up where.

[Outlaw]

I've just a side by side viewing of American Mikes race against Grangeclare's maiden. Mike and Affordale went an absolutely suidical pace from pretty much the start and just before the turn in to the straight they were probably a furlong or so ahead of Kudasheva.

Worth noting that Mike was carrying 12lb less than Grangeclare and the Monksfield finished in a time 4secs quicker than the maiden.

40L quicker to 3 out, no doubt they went too fast as that was halved to the line but the counter to that is Grangeclare to put 13l and more to the rest off a pretty modest pace is impressive.

[RoadToCheltenham]

40L quicker to 3 out, no doubt they went too fast as that was halved to the line but the counter to that is Grangeclare to put 13l and more to the rest off a pretty modest pace is impressive.

Grangeclare West speedier than many are saying then, essentially?

[Outlaw]

Grangeclare West speedier than many are saying then, essentially?

He's no boat clearly, merely stating in pace burn ups hold up horses can routinely be overexaggerated for running an efficient race and likewise any horse who can put distance between rivals off a slow pace can often be upgraded.