Dark horses for Cheltenham 2021

[JackieMoon33]

One I'm interested to see this season is Heart of a Lion for Alan King. Was very impressive in his bumper win in July 2019 and at the time the second and third both came out and won after, though neither of those horses have done much since. Obviously he hasn't been seen for a while but is one worth keeping an eye on I think. No idea what the plans are for him this season, but he's had a couple of entries recently so hopefully we see him soon.

The bumper win, if anyone is interested:
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...n-nh-flat-race

I think he's talented and I was interested in him last season (I may even have posted it somewhere on the forum) but the way things are with Kingy these days, I'd trust him more to train him for a Flat campaign

[nortonscoin200]

The Stayers Hurdle is one race where many of the cards are already on the table.

And with the likely field beginning to take shape much of the value has disappeared as prices contract.

But at 33-1 I reckon Beacon Edge is definitely worth a second look.

Ok, you might say he's not a dark horse - but he certainly is in terms of the Stayers Hurdle.

Most firms cut Ronald Pump's odds after his second to Honeysuckle in the Hatton's Grace the other day but Beacon Edge was virtually ignored even though he was just a head further back.

And it was Beacon Edge who went toe to toe with Honeysuckle and gave her much more of a race than RP who got outpaced before staying on late.

That was over 2miles 4f so again some might argue Ronald Pump would be more suited to the Stayers trip than Beacon Edge.

But for me the jury is very much out on that.

Beacon Edge's handicap mark has almost certainly been blown by his latest run so if he runs at Cheltenham it'll either be in the Champion Hurdle or the Stayers.

He's entered in 2 Grade 1s at Leopardstown over Christmas - the Matheson over the minimum trip and the Christmas Hurdle over 3 miles.

Surely they'll be thinking of giving him a first crack at 3 miles. His entire career has been building up to it.

This a horse who has been beaten in 5 of his nine races.

But the most he's ever been beaten in any of those races is three-and-a-quarter lengths when fourth behind Envoi Allen (giving 3lbs) in a 47k bumper at the Dublin racing festival last year.

His other defeats have been by one-and-three-quarter lengths, a nose , a neck and the three-quarters-of-a-length he was behind Honeysuckle the other day. And he's raced in good company throughout his short career.

All six of his runs last season were over the minimum trip but he stepped up to 2m 3f on his reappearance in October winning a tin-pot hurdle by 9 lengths easing down.

He then beat Minella Melody very comfortably over 2m 4f - again easing down - to equal his highest RPR of 148 . He was then given a 157RPR for his efforts in the Hatton's Grace.

I backed him TWAR at 20-1 (ouch!) in late October hoping he would maybe go the handicap route. for the Coral.

But I'd say it's now odds on Giggs will want him to run at Cheltenham and it'll be in the Stayers.
This is what the Racing Post wrote about his fourth to Envoi Allen in the big bumper (the second race of BE's career): "Raced towards rear until progress two furlongs out in eighth, stayed on strongly inside final furlong until left fourth, nearest finish."

Yes, it was a while back but I think three miles could bring out further improvement in Beacon's Edge if they ride him patiently.

He's a real battler and I think he could be a serious contender for the Stayers come March. In terms of current each way value he takes some beating.

[Bigfish]

Cyrname , Gold Cup
Saldier , Champion Hdl.
Unexcepted , Arkle Ch.
Asterion Forlonge , RSA
Real Steel , Ryanair Ch.
Five O' clock , NH Ch.
Farouk D' Alene , A.Bartlett Hdl.

[dannycraigpirates]

Cyrname , Gold Cup
Saldier , Champion Hdl.
Unexcepted , Arkle Ch.
Asterion Forlonge , RSA
Real Steel , Ryanair Ch.
Five O' clock , NH Ch.
Farouk D' Alene , A.Bartlett Hdl.

That does look like a list of horses who’s price has some significant upside in still

[nortonscoin200]

Escaria Ten is vexing me.

Reckon he'd win the Kim Muir but Jack didn't put the brakes on hard enough last time and it looks like he's going to be rated to ohigh to qualify. Big shame.

So where will he run?

Kev jumps up and says National Hunt Chase but I think that's not necessarily going to happen.

Just been through Gordon's entries in the NH Chase over the last decade and on only one occasion has he had more than 1 runner in the race. That was 2018 when Jury Duty went off 4-1 (unseated) and Mossback (fell) was sent off at 6-1.

Gordon's had a runner ever other year apart from 2013 and 2014.

Just as an aside. Gordon's saddled 9 runners in the NH Chase over the last decade. Only 4 have completed the course and they've all won!! Three others fell, one was unseated and the other pulled up.

Gigginstown have also had a runner in the race - not always trained by Gordon - every year apart from 2016, 2014 and 2011.

So this time round Gordon has Galvin lined up - not owned by Gigginstown.

But Giggs are going to want a runner in the race. So who will it be?

Farclas and/or Run Wild Fred could both move centre stage for Giggs if they finish close up in the Paddy Power on the 27th and qualify that way.

Assuming Giggs have one of Gordon's horses in the NH Chase that would mean Elliott would end up with three in the race if he also ran Escaria Ten.

To my mind that just ain't gonna happen.

So where else would he run Escaria Ten?

The RSA would be a possible. So too would the Ultima - but from memory that's a race Gordon rarely targets so is unlikely. Also, that tin pot novice chase 20-length win has blown a big hole in Escaria's handicap mark.

He could pull a late flanker and try to qualify him for the Pertemps - but that's a longshot.

And he could skip Cheltenham altogether and save him for the Irish Grand National - now that is possible.

But I think if Escaria Ten goes to Cheltenham he's most likely to join Pencilfulloflead in the RSA - ET is currently 33-1 for the RSA with PP.

I reckon Gordon has a real dilemma unless Gigginstown decide they don't want any of their Elliott horses to contest the National Hunt Chase in which case ET could be join Galvin.

Would be interested in your thoughts.

Merry Christmas

[Kevloaf]

Escaria Ten is vexing me.

Reckon he'd win the Kim Muir but Jack didn't put the brakes on hard enough last time and it looks like he's going to be rated to ohigh to qualify. Big shame.

So where will he run?

Kev jumps up and says National Hunt Chase but I think that's not necessarily going to happen.

Erm..... this is what I said when I backed him:

Chanced Escaria Ten for the NH Chase at 40/1 with 888 - won easily there. 1 pt e/w

Might be a handicapper to be fair, but think that's a big enough price to chance given that won over 3m1f today

Kev puts you back in your box.


Now you have my attention though, in my eeeeeeeeeever so humble opinion, he'd have feck all chance of reversing form with Monkfish, so any money on him for that is a very speculative punt for an RSA.

[nortonscoin200]

Erm..... this is what I said when I backed him:




Kev puts you back in your box.


Now you have my attention though, in my eeeeeeeeeever so humble opinion, he'd have feck all chance of reversing form with Monkfish, so any money on him for that is a very speculative punt for an RSA.

Apologies Kev.

But it could get tricky for Gordon to run him in the NHC unless he is happy to go in mob handed.

[Kevloaf]

Apologies Kev.

But it could get tricky for Gordon to run him in the NHC unless he is happy to go in mob handed.

Yeah perhaps not. I had to remind myself A Genie In Abottle wasn't Gordy's too!

Hello probably end up an outsider wherever he runs. Gone off him now

[FrenchHolly]

Escaria Ten is vexing me.

Reckon he'd win the Kim Muir but Jack didn't put the brakes on hard enough last time and it looks like he's going to be rated to ohigh to qualify. Big shame.

So where will he run?

Kev jumps up and says National Hunt Chase but I think that's not necessarily going to happen.

Just been through Gordon's entries in the NH Chase over the last decade and on only one occasion has he had more than 1 runner in the race. That was 2018 when Jury Duty went off 4-1 (unseated) and Mossback (fell) was sent off at 6-1.

Gordon's had a runner ever other year apart from 2013 and 2014.

Just as an aside. Gordon's saddled 9 runners in the NH Chase over the last decade. Only 4 have completed the course and they've all won!! Three others fell, one was unseated and the other pulled up.

Gigginstown have also had a runner in the race - not always trained by Gordon - every year apart from 2016, 2014 and 2011.

So this time round Gordon has Galvin lined up - not owned by Gigginstown.

But Giggs are going to want a runner in the race. So who will it be?

Farclas and/or Run Wild Fred could both move centre stage for Giggs if they finish close up in the Paddy Power on the 27th and qualify that way.

Assuming Giggs have one of Gordon's horses in the NH Chase that would mean Elliott would end up with three in the race if he also ran Escaria Ten.

To my mind that just ain't gonna happen.

So where else would he run Escaria Ten?

The RSA would be a possible. So too would the Ultima - but from memory that's a race Gordon rarely targets so is unlikely. Also, that tin pot novice chase 20-length win has blown a big hole in Escaria's handicap mark.

He could pull a late flanker and try to qualify him for the Pertemps - but that's a longshot.

And he could skip Cheltenham altogether and save him for the Irish Grand National - now that is possible.

But I think if Escaria Ten goes to Cheltenham he's most likely to join Pencilfulloflead in the RSA - ET is currently 33-1 for the RSA with PP.

I reckon Gordon has a real dilemma unless Gigginstown decide they don't want any of their Elliott horses to contest the National Hunt Chase in which case ET could be join Galvin.

Would be interested in your thoughts.

Merry Christmas

I took the 25s TWAR after his run behind Monkfish and I was thinking Kim Muir with other option being the NHC. Can't see the handicapper allowing him into the KM because he has the scope to win off the top weight. Wouldn't want him to take on Monkfish again but.... he's improving and never be afraid of one horse. Fingers crossed for 145 but not holding my breathe! If he's weighted out of the KM wouldn't make Ontheropes interesting for the KM?

[Nortons who]

When I backed ET TWAR back in June, this was only because at the time he wasn't priced up for the NHC. If GE didn't already have Galvin then I reckon we would all be raving about ET for this and personally I'm inclined to think he could still end up in the NHC anyway.