Triumph Hurdle 2021

[Green Goddess]

Tritonic entered at Ascot on Saturday

If they all turn up, it looks a cracking little race.

[YoungHustler]

Tritonic entered at Ascot on Saturday

Yep, I had cashed out thinking they may have changed their mind about hurdling but will get him back onboard before Saturday. I liked him on the flat and he had a good season ending with a rating of 99 so it will be interesting to see how well he takes to hurdling.

[charlie]

Bit disappointed to hear WPM sounding less than enthusiastic about sending French Aseel to DRF. Would love to see that clash with Zan. Hard weighing up the two and will be even harder if they duck a clash in Feb.

[Arkle]

Can’t see Zan running DRF think quilixious will be given his chance tbh

[Spectre]

Yes Quilixios is surely the one to run at the DRF, unless the Fred Winter theory comes true. In which case he'll be looking to preserve his mark.

I'm not convinced by French Aseel yet.

[Redbridge]

Bit disappointed to hear WPM sounding less than enthusiastic about sending French Aseel to DRF. Would love to see that clash with Zan. Hard weighing up the two and will be even harder if they duck a clash in Feb.

Charlie where did see or hear the WPM Quote.

[Kevloaf]

Yes Quilixios is surely the one to run at the DRF, unless the Fred Winter theory comes true. In which case he'll be looking to preserve his mark.

I'm not convinced by French Aseel yet.

That's a bit surprising?

Obviously I'm sure you're talking prices right now (having been cut for changing silks) but his win was mighty impressive and the forms absolutely fine? Coltor and Trebizond not disgraced yesterday?

[charlie]

Charlie where did see or hear the WPM Quote.

Was a video posted by RTV yesterday on Twitter. 6mins30secs long (roughly)

[Spectre]

That's a bit surprising?

Obviously I'm sure you're talking prices right now (having been cut for changing silks) but his win was mighty impressive and the forms absolutely fine? Coltor and Trebizond not disgraced yesterday?

I don't look to make a book on the Triumph, it's too hard, so I've no need to get him onside. So in the case of French Aseel I can wait to see him back it up before I'd consider backing him. Especially when he's too short (in fact he's an awful price), on what he's done compared to others at the top of the market.

Coltor and Trebizond weren't disgraced but are probabaly 120 horses. So if that's correct French Aseel would be 140 top end with scope to improve. He's portentially going to lack experience compared to Zanahiyr and Quilixios as well. So until we either see him race again, or see some genuine substance from anything he's beat, he's one to avoid for now unless he's needed to balance a book in my opinion.

[charlie]

Yes Quilixios is surely the one to run at the DRF, unless the Fred Winter theory comes true. In which case he'll be looking to preserve his mark.

I'm not convinced by French Aseel yet.

I'm not fully convinced by either at the head of the market, yet. Both have looked very impressive, but neither have been tested in deep company yet, or against one another. That's why I am gutted FA looks like he'll miss DRF and go straight to Cheltenham. I added French Aseel @ 7/1 for a few reasons. The visual impression he left on debut impressed me more than what Zanahiyr has done. Form wise they are hard to weigh up, but Zanahiyr nearly lost first time up to horse called Dark Voyager and were it not for DV fluffing his lines at the last, there's probably fractions in it. French Aseel beat Dark Voyager (who wasn't unfancied that day) by 40L without coming off the bridle, so I thought that was interesting. The context influenced me too - wouldn't ever hang my hat on just a big purchase but the rumour mill says ?400k+ and the Donnelly/Mullins combo is a solid partnership. I doubt they're paying that for something they think isn't a bit special and 7/1 looked a good price based on everything I know now.

[Spectre]

I think that's fair enough Charlie. He's not a horse I'd put anyone off backing. He humped his oppostion and could be anything. He's just not for me at the price with no substance yet. I couldn't back Zanahiyr for the same reason. I think they're both terrible prices, and there's plenty of each way value behind the pair of them.

The three I've backed I may not keep either. Youmdor fell and I woudln't be keen if he went straight there after that. Nassalam I backed because I think he'd reverese with Adagio, but might not be good enough anyway. Quilixios I'll probably keep, but that will still depend on him turning up at Leopardstown. I can't shake the feeling that he might turn up in the Fred Winter.

I'd hope with all three I'd end up with some kind of profit by trading them out at some point, and it's very possible I have nothing backed on the morning of the race, and I go back in on the day just for some interest.

[Kevloaf]

I don't look to make a book on the Triumph, it's too hard, so I've no need to get him onside. So in the case of French Aseel I can wait to see him back it up before I'd consider backing him. Especially when he's too short (in fact he's an awful price), on what he's done compared to others at the top of the market.

Coltor and Trebizond weren't disgraced but are probabaly 120 horses. So if that's correct French Aseel would be 140 top end with scope to improve. He's portentially going to lack experience compared to Zanahiyr and Quilixios as well. So until we either see him race again, or see some genuine substance from anything he's beat, he's one to avoid for now unless he's needed to balance a book in my opinion.

Ah fair enough, yeah it's not a race that lends itself to it.

He's only "too short" now for me relative to the prices he was for people that know why his price has gone from double figures.

I've taken ages to write this reply so I've since seen Charlie's post regarding Dark Voyageur etc, which is better than I was gonna come up with.



FWIW, I can see why he's easy to avoid but at the same time I think I'd have him if I could only have one at the moment (not in terms of a value bet, but just, most solid dart) - Of course I'm not knocking Zanahiyir's claims specifically but it's easy to go over board and considering I have the 50/1 that Q put up (I think) I'm alright trying to get him beat at this stage...

[Spectre]

I think the market for this is ripe for a shake up to be honest Kev, and with 50/1 in your pocket about Zanahiyr it's worth covering the others at the top of the market, and also covering what happens or doesn't happen at Dublin.

I'm open minded at the moment, but I can see me having one proper bet on the day on the one I really like when we've seen all the available form. So in the meantime I'm trying not to get too fixed on my opinions. Hence the 'I'm not convinced yet' comment with French Aseel. It wasn't I don't like him, it's that I need to see more, and that cross-form a couple of days ago didn't really help. The problem now is if he goes straight to Cheltenham it relies on further collateral form, and when juveniles are scrambling for Fred Winter marks so it becomes unreliable. I suspect as a consequence he'll remain unbackable for me given I didn't jump on immediately, that is unless someone comes up with a compelling angle or idea that I haven't thought of.

[jack1092]

Bit disappointed to hear WPM sounding less than enthusiastic about sending French Aseel to DRF. Would love to see that clash with Zan. Hard weighing up the two and will be even harder if they duck a clash in Feb.

There was some stat actually think it came from Upping The Ante about how much time Mullins likes to give his new horses....perhaps it's something regarding that + we know he's very handy and getting them ready off of a break.

Spectre I'd be in agreement with this race is one i stay well away from (don't bet antepost a tenth as much as most in here anyway) but surely Hendo will have something in the Adonis?

[charlie]

I think the market for this is ripe for a shake up to be honest Kev, and with 50/1 in your pocket about Zanahiyr it's worth covering the others at the top of the market, and also covering what happens or doesn't happen at Dublin.

I'm open minded at the moment, but I can see me having one proper bet on the day on the one I really like when we've seen all the available form. So in the meantime I'm trying not to get too fixed on my opinions. Hence the 'I'm not convinced yet' comment with French Aseel. It wasn't I don't like him, it's that I need to see more, and that cross-form a couple of days ago didn't really help. The problem now is if he goes straight to Cheltenham it relies on further collateral form, and when juveniles are scrambling for Fred Winter marks so it becomes unreliable. I suspect as a consequence he'll remain unbackable for me given I didn't jump on immediately, that is unless someone comes up with a compelling angle or idea that I haven't thought of.

Very good point. I almost begrudgingly took 7/1 knowing that were it another owner/trainer he'd be double or treble the price. Same can be said for Quilixios at the moment too.